tv Conflict Zone Deutsche Welle October 31, 2024 9:30am-10:00am CET
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the companion can see the stock applies as the warning ukraine brings ever more death and destruction. key european officials fair moscow is now preparing for conflict with the west. i guess this week goes along with that view, these co for roasting heads of his stony as intelligence service. but he still believes russia can lose our task in the best to be, to make sure that russia comes out of this conflict as a beacon polar. so how united is the west, and how vital is it that you crane gets the weapons? it's one proper. rose, you welcome to come because you haven't in your view,
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how long does the west have before it might or might have to fight to war with russia? of course i have to say that we don't really truck at the development see the best . the question is the answer to that question is it should be as long as the partial is defeated, i don't know. and i think this is a mission which is opposite, weekly, possible, the conduct you started that, but in your intelligence report, in february you said that a military confrontation with the west, russia was preparing for that. and that could happen within 10 years. but there are other people, other officials in europe who shouldn't make that timeline. in july, the chief of the general staff of the british army, general roney woke of one, but they throw, had 3 to 5 years to prepare for war with what do you call them?
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access about people, that's russia, china, north korea and it were on, uh, do you agree with that? uh okay, so uh for me to understand the question, but the point is that the timeline when the time the space, what we have on our disposal before the potential conflict with russia, the 1st uh there are several factors now in, in the pipeline low cost for us, we have to make sure that this potentially event doesn't happen at the corner. so the 1st be placed on is a home with us, the contract, the new crane, and that really determine the future bass. yeah. or for russia, we use that risk. so in, in this, this issue, if we have a situation after the, let's say, ukraine rush of war,
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we had to rush out images from that as a big torrijos, very self confident power. it really make or calculations. and based on the, the new situation, then our task in the rest should be to make sure that russia comes out of this conflict as a beacon polar which or who might be then as ordering some of the internal programs, which would probably the wrong in the least though he's a russian defeat in, in the contract and i think pointing with not to wife russian defeat. but the 2nd question is, how long it takes to watch and store it close to do it or generate forces. we have to keep in mind that and i would like to talk about the notion of the constitution . i would like to name the issue and maybe russian 1st generation or russian
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forces development may have to keep in mind that there are some all forces today are set about 100000 mind bigger than it was before the before launching the large scale invasion. and that this is the capability to spot the shock deeps generating forces to generate additional manpower. uh, wanting it to be gotta be got programs to meet the general, i think. but according to they are on tech, and with that and or of course, i'm a nation production and the treatment to the production with the order refurbishment and production with the items also, we know, you know, what's actually are the ones that come on and deal with some of those issues in, in detail, but this month's newspaper reports you're talking about. russia needs to be weaker if, if the west is to avoid a boy much weak from its will with ukraine. this month, newspaper report say russia had already received more than 200 ballistic missiles
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from iran at a port on the s b and c. and there was a risk of it more would be provided. if that was miss oz, keep coming from iran and from other members of that so called access to about people, russia isn't going to emerge. we kids come a much, much stronger, isn't that if this trend continues to, the russians have come up to trying to boost up. it's made it 30 strength. and of course, based on that means that his drink, they are conducting graduation on wolf a, be the ukraine. so all the task is to make sure that the creation that aisha is using a beneficial but the mom buddies beneficial on the for poor to print it is also i would assess that the russia cannot keep this position rate up for coming. yes and yes. so we have to make sure that the ukrainians have the power to at 3 the
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russians as, as much as possible. and the question is, how do we know it's a deals with the russian intention bought and resolve the ukraine end result, me read the best again, the main task. what about the after and sort of before it comes to any, but they've gone, take the dream, the nato and russia is to make sure that, that ukraine images as, as a, as a big let's say as being part of this is going to the biggest august but it doesn't look like that at the moment. does it? it doesn't look like it's winning, it's, it's, it's suffering steady loss is on the eastern front. nevermind the fact that it's advance its own forces into the caustic region inside russia. but it's not doing well on the eastern front of toilers. it is a, i think situation has been difficult, but i wouldn't say that the russians are, let's say, doing great. the item that i show is probably a lot of would like to do is to treat the crating on part as much as possible.
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possibly sold it, being up front would collapse, but i don't see that happening any time. sure. so, and i'm not sure either. you have to rush, i just have a clear big story strategy also. and i'm not sure they have that very, very clearly defined. they have at the end, the public rhetorics of, you know, what they want to look at, based on what they say. but in the reality, it's something they kind of what the chief of all i would say do you think mr. post? it was a war with the west. uh, i think he respect that and they thought, but this also again, we have to make sure that this respect continues over the coming years and then it comes to all apart then how well or be prepared, how would our our plans for the eastern plank. uh, so you're sharing,
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he'd like to have a boy if he can get away with it, is that too? if he has the feeling that she gets away and nothing happens to him, he comes out clean and then it might run into the calculations. but i would say if i come back to ukraine, russia's advice, and then let's say, even if it comes to the situation where there wouldn't be negotiations between the russia and maybe ukrainians. but i want to assess that that i shall scroll likely the likely only would like to talk to the americans only over the heads of your opinions. and they would also like to discuss the not donio crane, but also the broad executed that you'll be asked to do with the architecture. so what they call in but be used to push nato capabilities and activities as far as possible from that i sham folder and based and create a new situation on the ground. a based on that. and then again,
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calculate for what the truck from the moment and this type of discussion. all leslie is very, is the things that i see if it comes to the agenda. okay, sweet. oh, oh, you talked about the need for, for nato to up its game. how much faith do you have in the alliance? at the moment i ask, because 2 years ago, your former prime minister kind of carlos was highly critical of nato's plans to defend the baltic states. she said they would have resulted in a stony, i think, wiped off the map and has made so up to its game where its planning is concerned. how does it, how does it come up with a upon like value in the 1st place? and i don't know how it came up with a plan like this, but i have the feeling that the was pretty hopeless, wasn't it? when it was definitely not beneficial for us. but i would say, as far as i know, the plans have changed in that regard. the and, but it's a constant book. now of course, a new stop of discussion, the nato,
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between nato allies or different allies of different viewpoints, which is the oldest under. but it's a beauty of that last, but i think we are on the right track. and most of the companies on just on the trip, but that i suppose is also meet and long term. and there is a general understanding that we have to be prepared or we have to be prepared to protect those simple defend dollars. so what about the troops that kind of call us one to the nato choose between 20 and 25000 to be based in estonia, as that happened when it happened. and the that's probably the question more for chief of defense. how many troops are needed here? and we'll see when public saying that it is, it hasn't happened and she needed it to happen. and the last reports we have had saying that it hasn't happened. so i started putting the question to you. absolutely. because i think the question here is about the what you want. it's all
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designated for, let's say, a reinforcement, the re, again, concrete numbers are more in the defense force. us the domain. probably the question is, how many totes you have for what detroit in the piece time, which must be also manage evan, both in training get as an economically and what is probably important for us is that the we have already made the troops designate that for potential for along the reinforcements reached and it would be launched in after a proper early warning that he's given. so it was here on. so do you have enough troops or not at the moment to repel, to repel a russian advance should. that'd be one. i think we would view up with me with give a good fight to the russians and then hopefully readings reinforcements with the right rapidly, according to the plants. and do you have
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a cost on guarantee that more than 30 countries, the members of nato will fight side by side with you if you are attacked. uh, i'm pretty confident in that, but again, the small print is it, it's not the not to go 5. yeah, but the it, so the question is alternate the defense plants, which are the ones that they develop and it's a ongoing but that's how it is. we've been talking about a possible will with russia, but in the sense it's already begun how soon to talk. if you could talk to me a little bit about the sabotage operations that have the kremlin fingerprints on them, not just getting started here, but elsewhere in europe is this, is this a growing trend? well, it is a total what the national fix it can use against invest in order to disrupt us to bring tension in dollars. so saw this uh, rochelle probably helps to the,
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to be relying on the all the good 5 with these activities in this don't. ok this we have more than 15 people arrested. what the last the year in the connection with the russians? i'm a product give me this. it seems that there's a lot of activities conduct that trout the europe, um in the bottom of awesome, etc. it is something serious of a these, these attacks. i would say if i open this door and in case then they live in the battery slit a lot and we have the incidence of vandalism mutual. and let's say more of this harmless, the opposite. awesome. the question is, of course, the, let's say the how it develops it has been, it has escalate that they hold is on things that go over the last year. so if this, the revere him of destabilizing um your country, or just keeping you on your toes or making people nervous, what or the invention,
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it also tries to undermine probably on the mind to support the for the trip up to your grade. yeah, it is the disrupt us, it is here to tell you our resource so, so we would pay more attention and though it was internal issues and trying to buy that the attention from the support, the to do the upgrade. and let's talk about ukraine's urgent request to use long range, west and midsize on targets. in russia, you'll president our carriers port school and on the nato countries that have withheld use of the long range missiles for you, correct? because of fears of escalating, the crisis was the right to do that. you said it was pure self deception and reflected indecision and fear which played into russian hands. if your president is right and nato is becoming and decisive and fearful,
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the nato is no longer fit for purpose. is it when i have to aggravate miss my president in this quote and perfect you know some many. if you're looking at the eastern or there are some 7 or other, that's a new federal dimes. what that i show has sometimes successfully installed in the head of the best and most of the 1st and 1st battle dying. but that i shall see all trying to communicate is that the conflict should happen only on the 1030 of the victim, and the address or for whatever reason should be remain untouched. this is the 1st time in the military history. and the 2nd idea of what the issue is that trying to get it to communicate over to take over play to us. is that the right? it is impossible for russia to rules. again, it's not the correct the right size laws, somebody on boards throughout the history is old. i know, but the as of may,
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so i'm not persuaded of that. all the other members are showing in his woods in decision and fear on pay uh, russian. so i'll try and do the install this for you. so it is, of course, a task for us, for the eastern plank gone through is to keep explaining this to all the rest the allies. and i think down the standing is also need to be changing a already know, so in the, in more or less than that accomplish. but the, i agree it has, let's say taken too long time. uh for, for this change, whether it's an ongoing process, isn't it? because your president said i have several countries expressing that does offer a quick diplomatic solution and compromise with russia. and there's a spreading hope that resetting relations with food as russia is possible or even inevitable. you don't believe that. do you know my life? i mean, i am convinced that the russian government,
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which he must be defeated strategically because you, you, at this point is partially successful. you need so objective to reassess that. he would continue imprinted because of the voting ukraine would be not over and meet me. and if you have a pros and conflict that at some point the something the, something they like or so, and they have to also understand the russians are according to themselves. they are in the water already with the collective, the best in the own understanding. so i don't see that many options because if you talk about the long term quantity, go as an ocean, then the make sure that your brain ends beam at the end. and again, i think it this store, but actually if the ukrainians don't get the weapons they need or permission to use the ones they have inside russia. will it be impossible for them to when
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i think that one weapon system that comes simple example, it's a that's a long range human size. yes, i think it has to be. it has become very symbolic. at this point, i looked at this map on system alone, 1000 and sort of the conflict a dollar. but the question is, it's about the, where the body that goes bought or the or understanding from russian side the, that they are able to detour us and based on their thoughts. luckily, they are great as having them and not being their own weapons, which seems to be sometimes more patient when i look at what happens in russia, but we've had a ukrainian politician on this program just a week ago saying the west has given us enough weapons to fight, but not enough to win. that's the view coming out of ukraine at the moment. don't
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you see where they're coming from? it is hard to argue with this that it is on a threshold boyfriend. so the, at the, in the side with more bills and more resource really been there's a question about the appropriate activation rate for both sides. your brain needs additional good. both of these and elimination to make that happen over. so again, we shouldn't be somehow we shouldn't the restrain, always setups, indeed it's a boarding, you'll create with any type of weapon. so i'm a nation they need and i agree that the it has taken to a long time, but as authorization, so they'll be made. but again, i don't see that the cost is the last bull valley at this point, but there are, there are divisions emerging in europe among nature. we have the check president
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present, pabo saying ukraine needed to be realistic. the most probable outcome of the war would be that russia would hold on to some of the territories. it's capture at least temporary. that's pretty defeat just isn't the fact idea. takes root nato. that's not going to be good to ukraine. is it a little our talking point is that you creating can still be in this. so the discussions do we have the seems to be in contrast to nato countries. russia has been busy transforming it's economy into a war economy. it's turning out there are munition and advanced weaponry, some of which is not so far, appearing on the battlefield. does that not suggest to you that russia is preparing for a much bigger conflict? the, let's say that about me see, is that all the resources? so for rush, i'm on for so, so the russian federation imprints it but boeing good. what's your crate?
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so if you look at the situation currently along all at borders, there is not much, there are some military power available for the from, from that iron side. so that's, that's the good news. so the question is, if the, if it takes 4 restaurants so wrong, and it's so painful to try and do the feet, feel great. and then the question is, how would it, how would that i shot before them against the rest, which is much more advanced. i'm not sure that would go out of the conflict, but the point clicked would go out in the ocean. the favor. of course, we have to make sure that the noa site, the appropriate resources, clients, equipment available, nomination stokes, or at the, let's say needed 11. i would say breast as of course, if the war stops in the rush or the active face of the conflict,
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the stop. so we know by the light or it least would be, it need to be very painful. what full russian economy to come out of this war economy the moment that would be very interesting to watch, so they would keep producing. and from that point, the lawn, if we take away the pre show me show, having you know, cream from that point on that, that's a growth or progression. we thought a, he's then speeding up. i would say ukraine's president zalinski has taken his what he calls his victory plan through washington to run it past the americans . he said it's a plan to strengthen ukraine and force russia to the negotiating table. is ukraine able to do that? in your view for russia to the negotiating table, i haven't seen the victoria plan again. currently, all you do not see any reason from russian side. negotiate anything uh,
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syncs again the, let's say the best thing you'd weakness of this invites further escalation from device on side. it's not just perceived, it is weak and it says and it is weight based on division. in the way, i think we are actually a much stronger if we would be more of a link to let's say, play out this strength. and then the other point they start from what, what is, what are you waiting for? what's, what's the west waiting for? know, well uh, i mean they've been enough cookies and enough warnings. we are pushing the rest and allies and not only be all the damage and the daily daily book. and the, this is the basis a patient. but again i, i see some move and so i'm not that pessimistic and all that on. but it, they, as a, in a book they have to point to one of the points in the presidency landscapes. victory
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plan is that the ones for the security guarantees that we'll, that'd be worth the paper, the risk not even if he gets them. the beauty pass memorandum, which was supposed to uh, secure uh, ukraine's future when he gave up it's nuclear weapons in 1994 hasn't done so well for them as it, particularly since it was a guaranteed both by russia and america. so the visa board to bring them faster to data, which would be the proper notice if you were to go on to in our view, is ukraine going on when not at the moment, does it nothing less? the west gets its act together and gives it the weapons. is it so kind of with no battle. uh we have to think joe, what, what is it duration show, but it got a in europe, an inability of prussia. let's say bins. as i said in this case, and that's basically what that would be. story us self confident,
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the ratio which would the make photo long calculations based on the new situation. we would have a huge role for if we choose problem ukraine, you flipside, i sure would take over the country in one form or another. and we would have a situation where the ukraine and resources would, it would be po and against of us by the russians. about what keeps you awake at night? well then we are looking day and night to, let's say prevent that from happening. how long as well for us this is existing show the issue we understand so they cannot be tired of doing that right. couple really soon. it's good to have you on the program. thank you very much for being with us. thank you very much for having the
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