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tv   Conflict Zone  Deutsche Welle  October 31, 2024 2:30pm-3:01pm CET

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a global, so listen to a whole lot of crime. it's probably up to speed if the care we subscribe to those channels, we subscribe to plan, it's a the, as the war ukraine brings ever more death and destruction. key european officials fair moscow is now preparing for conflict with the west. i guess this week goes along with that view. these coco rosen heads of his stony as intelligence service. but he still believes russia couldn't lose our task in the best to be, to make sure that russia comes out of this conflict as a beacon polar. so how united is the west, and how vital is it that you crane gets the weapons? it's one proper. rose, you welcome to come pick those children in your view,
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how long does the west have before it might or might have to fight to war with russia? the of course i have to say that we don't really truck at the developments in the best. the question is, the answer to that question is, it should be as long as the partial is defeated, i don't know. and i think this is a mission which is opposite, weekly, possible, the conduct as you say, that. but in your intelligence reports in february, you said that the military confrontation with the west, russia was preparing for that. and that could happen within 10 years. but there are other people, other officials in europe who shouldn't make that timeline. in july, the chief of the general staff of the british army general roney woke of one, but they throw had 3 to 5 years to prepare for war with what he called them,
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access about people. that's russia, china, north korea. and if we're on, do you agree with that? oh, okay, so for me to understand the question, but the point is that the, the time line when the time space, what we have on our disposal before the potential conflict with russia. the 1st uh there are several factors now in, in the pipeline low cost list, we have to make sure that this potential event doesn't happen at all. so the 1st be placed on is a home with dos, the contract, the new crane, and that really determine the future bass. yeah. or for russia, we use the risk. so in, in this, this issue, if we have a situation after the, let's say, ukraine rush of war,
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we had to rush out images from that as a big torrijos, very self confident power. it really make or calculations based on the, the new situation. then our task being the best should be to make sure that russia comes out of this conflict as a week and polar beach or who might be then as ordering some of the day and come up programs, which would probably the run into if there is a russian defeat in, in the contract and i think boy, they would not your wife russian defeat. and the 2nd question is, how long it takes to wash and store it close to do it or generate a force as we have to keep in mind that. and i would like to talk about the notion of the constitution. i would like to name that issue. maybe russian 1st generation
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or russian forces development may have to keep in mind that there are some all forces today are set about 100000 mind bigger than it was before the before launching the large scale invasion. and that this is the capability to spot, the shock keeps generating forces to generate additional manpower. uh, wanting it to be gotta be got programs to meet that unit, i think. but according to they are on track with that. and or of course, i'm a nation production and equipment to then production with the order refurbishment and production with the oceans. also, we know, you know, what's actually i've had one thing come on a deal with some of those issues in, in detail. but this month's newspaper reports you talk about russia needs to be weaker if, if the west is to avoid a boy much weak from its will with ukraine. this month's newspaper report say russia had already received more than 200 ballistic missiles from iran,
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a report on the s, b and c. and there was a risk of it more would be provided. um, if that was massage, keep coming from iran and from other members of that so called access to about people, russia isn't going to emerge week a is coming much, much stronger, isn't that if this trend continues to the russian. so kind of to try and to boost up. it's made it 30 strength. and of course, based on that means that his drink, they are conducting graduation on wolf a be the ukraine. so all the task is to make sure that the creation that aisha is using a beneficial but the mom buddies beneficial on the for a potent print. it is also i would assess that the russia cannot keep this position rate up for coming. yes and yes. so we have to make sure that the ukrainians have the power to at 3 the russians as,
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as much as possible. and the question is, how do we know it's a deals with the russian intention bought resolve the ukraine, and we saw me read the best again, the main task. what about the after and sort of before it comes to any, but they've gone, take the dream, the nato and russia is to make sure that, that ukraine images as, as that as a big let's say, as being part of this, this quantity people started, but it doesn't look like that at the moment. does it? it doesn't look like it's winning, it's, it's, it's suffering steady loss is on the east and from nevermind the fact that its advance its own forces into the cossack region inside russia. but it's not doing well on the eastern front of toilers. it is a, i think situation has been difficult, but i wouldn't say that the russians are, let's say, doing great the item. what the question is probably
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a lot would like to do is to treat the crating on part as much as possible. possibly. so the green upfront would collapse, but i don't see that happening any time. sure. so, and i'm not sure either. you have to rush and have a clear big story strategy. also. i'm not sure they have that very, very clearly defined. they have at the end, the public reports of, you know, what they want to look at based on what they say. but in the reality, it's something they kind of what the chief of all i would say do you think come to suppose it was a wall with the west? uh, i think he respects and they thought, but this also again, we have to make sure that this respect continues over the coming. yes. and then it comes to all apart then. how well or be prepared, how would our our plans for the eastern plank. uh sir, your sharing,
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he'd like to have a boy if he can get away with it, is that too? if he has the feeling that she gets away and nothing happens to him, he comes out clean and then it might run into the calculations. but i would say if i come back to ukraine, russia's advice, and then let's say, even if it comes to the situation where there wouldn't be negotiations between the russia and maybe ukrainians. but i want to assess that that i shall scroll likely the likely only would like to talk to the americans only over the heads of your opinions. and they would also like to discuss the not donio crane, but also the broad executed that you'll be asked to do with the architecture. so what they call in but be used to push nato capabilities and activities. this as far as possible from that i shall border and based and create a new situation on the ground. a based on that. and then again calculate for what
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the truck from that moment and this type of discussion. all leslie is very, is the things that i see if it comes to the agenda. okay. sweet o. o. m, you talked about the need for, for nato to up its game. how much faith do you have in the alliance? at the moment i ask, because 2 years ago, your former prime minister kind of call us, was highly critical of nato's plans to defend the baltic states. she said they would have resulted in a stony, a big white off the map has made so up to its game where its planning is concerned . how does it, how does it come up with a upon like value in the 1st place? and i don't know how it came up with a plan like this, but i have the feeling that the was pretty helpless, wasn't it? then it was definitely not beneficial for us. but i would say, as far as i know, the plans have changed in that regard. the and, but it's a constant book. now of course,
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the new step of discussion in may talk between nato allies or different allies of different viewpoints, which is the oldest under. but it's a beauty of the last, but i think we are on the right track. most of the companies understand the threat, but that i suppose is also made and long term. and there is a general understanding that we have to be prepared or we have to be prepared to protect those simple defend dollars. so what about the troops that kind of call us one to the nato choose between 20 and 25000 to be based in estonia, as that happened when it happened. and the that's part of the question, more for chief of defense, how many troops are needed here? and we see when public saying that it is, it hasn't happened and she needed it to happen. and the last reports we have had saying that it hasn't happened. so i started putting the question to you. absolutely, because i think the question here is about the what you want. it's all designated
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for, let's say a reinforcement, the re, again, concrete numbers are more in the defense voice us the domain. but over the question is, how many totes you have for what the droid in the piece time? which must be also manage. evan, both in training get as an economically and what is probably important for us is that the we have already made. the troops designate that for potential, for along the reinforcements reached. and it would be launched in after a proper early warning that he's given. so it was here on. so do you have enough troops or not at the moment to repel, to repel a russian advance? should that be one? i think we would view up. we would give a good fight to the russians and then hopefully reinstall reinforcements with the right rapidly according to the plants. and do you have
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a cost on guarantee that move in so that the countries, the members of nato, will fight side by side with you if you are attacked. uh, i'm pretty confident in that, but again, the small print is it, it's not the not to go 5. yeah, but the it, so the question is alternate the defense plants which are constantly developed and it's a ongoing, but that's all it is. or we've been talking about a possible will with russia, but in the sense it's already begun. how soon to talk, if you can talk to me a little bit about the sabotage operations that have the kremlin fingerprints on them, not just in the study, but elsewhere in europe. is this, is this a growing trend? well, it is a total of what the national fix it can use against the rest in order to disrupt us to bring tension a dollar. so saw this. uh, rochelle probably helps that to be relying on the all the good 5 we disagreement
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isn't this, don't okay. this we have more than 15 people arrested. what the last the year in the connection with the russians. i'm a product. can you this it seems that there's some opportunities to conduct the trout, the europe, um in the bottom of awesome, etc. it is something serious of a these, these attacks. i would say if i open the store and in case then the live in the battery slip a lot, we have the incidence of vandalism mutual. and let's say more of this harmless the offer to awesome. the question is, of course, the, let's say the how it develops it has been, it has escalate that they always want to investigate over the last year. so if this, the revere him of destabilizing your country, or just keeping you on your toes or making people nervous, what a, it's
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a mandatory mention. it also tries to undermine probably on the mind, to support of the trip up to your grade. yeah, it is the disrupt us, it is here to tell you our resource so, so we would pay more attention and though it was internal issues and trying to buy that the attention from the support, the to do the upgrade. and let's talk about ukraine's urgent request to use long range west of messiahs on targets in russia. your president, our carriers port school and on the nato countries that have withheld use of a long range missiles for you, correct? because of fears of escalating, the crisis was the right to do that. you said it was pure self deception and reflected indecision and fear which played into russian hands. if your president is right, the nato is becoming and decisive and fearful,
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the nato is no longer fit for purpose. is it when i have to create means my president know in this code and perfect, you know some many, if you're looking to based on it, there are some 7 other that's a new that are the items that i show has sometimes successfully installed in the head of the best, and that's the 1st and 1st battle dying, but that i shall see all trying to communicate is that the conflict should happen only on the 1030 of the victim and the address or for whatever reason should be remain on punched. this is the 1st time in the military history and the 2nd idea of what the issue is that trying to get it to communicate over to take over play to us . is that the right? it is impossible for russia to rules. again, it's not the correct the right size laws, somebody on boards throughout the history is old. i know about the megs or whatnot
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. persuaded them that all the other members are showing in his woods in decision and fear of a rush on. so i'll try and do the install this video. so it is of course, a task for us, for the eastern plank gone through is to keep explaining this to all the rest the allies. and i think down the standing is also need to be changing a already and also in the, in more invest in the content. but the, i agree it has, let's say taken too long time. uh, vote for this change. but it's an ongoing process, isn't it? because your president said, i hear several countries expressing or dissolved for a quick diplomatic solution and compromise with russia. and there's a spreading hope, but resetting relations with pollutants. russia is possible or even inevitable. you don't believe that. do you my life? i been, i am convinced that the russian government,
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which he must be defeated strategically because he, even if pointing is partially successful in these object, reassessed that he would continue imprinted. but so the warranty knew, crane would be not over and meet me. and if you have a pros and conflict that at some point the something the, something like and so, and they have those understand the russians are, according to themselves. they are in the war already with the collective, the best in their own understanding. so i don't see that many options for us. if you talk about the longer term quantity, go as an ocean, then the make sure that the gradients be at the end. that again, i think it this store, but actually if the ukrainians don't get the weapons they need or permission to use the ones they have inside russia. will it be impossible for them to when
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i think that one weapon system that i think i'm so books i'm but it's a that's a long range human size. yes. i think it has to be. it has become very symbolic at this point. it's a display phone system alone doesn't sort of the conflict adult, but the question is, it's about the, the body to cultural, bought, or, or, or understanding from russian side to that they are able to detour us and based on on their thoughts. luckily, they are great as having them not being they own weapons, which seems to be sometimes more patient when i look at what happens in russia, but we've had a ukrainian politician on this program just a week ago saying the west has given us enough weapons to fight, but not enough to win. that's the view coming out of ukraine at the moment. don't
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you see where they're coming from? it is hard to argue. little bit with this that it is on a threshold boyfriend. so the, at the, in the side to be more bills and more resource really been there's a question about the pro ration rate for both sides. ukraine needs additional. good. both of the nation elimination to make that happen over so again, we shouldn't be somehow we shouldn't. the restrain, always setups in digital butting. you'll create with any type of weapon. so i'm a nation they need and i agree that the it has taken to a long time, but as authorization, so they'll be made. but again, i don't see that the cost is last, probably at this point, but there are, there are divisions emerging in europe among nato. we have the check president
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present pabo saying ukraine needed to be realistic. the most probable outcome of the war would be that russia would hold on to some of the territories. it's captured at least temporary. that's pretty defeat just isn't the fact idea. takes root nato. that's not going to be good to ukraine. is it a little our talking point is that you creating can still be in this. so the discussions do we have the seems to be in contrast to nato countries. russia has been busy transforming its economy into a war economy. it's turning out there are munitions and advanced weaponry, some of which is not so far, appearing on the battlefield. does that not suggest to you that russia is preparing for a much bigger conflict? the, let's say the current about me see is that all the resources? so for rush, i'm on for so, so the russian federation imprints it but boy and good to what's your crate.
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so if you look at the situation currently along all that borders, there is not much, there are some military power available for the from, from that iron side. so that's, that's the good news. so the question is, if the, if it takes 4 restaurants so wrong, and it's sold, paying for it to try and do the feet, feel great. and then the question is, how would it, how would that i shot before? i'm against the risk, which is much more advanced. i'm not sure that would go on the conflict, but the jump warranty would go out in the ocean. the favor. of course, we have to make sure that the know a site, the proper resources, clients, equipment available, nomination stokes audit the, let's say needed 11. i would say best is, of course, if the war stops in the rush or the active face of the conflict,
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the stop so we can buy the light or it least would be, it need to be very painful. what full russian economy to come out of this war economy the moment that would be very interesting to watch, so they would keep producing. and from that point, the lawn, if we take away the pre show me show, having you know, cream from that point on that, that's a growth or progression. we thought a, he's then speeding up. i would say ukraine's president zelinski has taken his what he calls his victory plan through washington to run it past the americans . he said it's a plan to strength and ukraine and forced russia to the negotiating table. is ukraine able to do that in your view for russia to the negotiating table? i haven't seen the victoria plan again. currently, all you do not see any reason from russian side to negotiate anything uh,
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syncs again the, let's say the best thing you'd weakness of this invites further escalation from device on site. it's not just perceive that is we can assume that it's weight based on division in the way i think we are actually a much stronger if we would be more v link to let's say play out this strength. and again, the other point is that, well what, what is, what are you waiting for? what's, what's the west way thing for know, well, uh, i mean they've been enough cookies and enough warnings v on or pushing the rest and allies and not only be or the damage and the daily daily book. and the, this is the basis a patient. but again i, i see some move and so i'm not that pessimistic and all that on. but that base as a book, they have to point to one of the points in the presidency landscapes. victory plan
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is that the ones for the security guarantees that we'll, that'd be worth the paper, the risk not even if he gets them. the beauty pass memorandum, which was supposed to uh, secure uh, ukraine's future when he gave up it's nuclear weapons in 1994 hasn't done so well for them as it, particularly since it was a guaranteed both by russia and america. so the visa board to bring them fast to data, which would be the proper notice if you were to go on to in our view, is ukraine going on when not at the moment? is it nothing less the west gets its act together and gives it the weapons? is it so kind of with no battle? uh we have to think joe, what would it do? i shouldn't show up, but it got a in europe and the, the prussia, let's say bins and the said in this case, and that's basically what that would be. story us self confident,
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the ratio which would the make photo long calculations based on the new situation. we would have a huge pro. well, for if we choose problem, ukraine, if let's say if i show it would take over the country in one form or another. and we would have a situation where the ukraine of resources would it would be towing against of us, or the russians and prayers that what keeps you awake at night? well then we are looking day and night. do, let's say prevent that from happening. how long as well for us this is x has been show the issue, we understand so they cannot be tired of tweeted, all right, couple of really soon. it's good to have you on the program. thank you very much for being with us. thank you very much. for having the
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