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tv   Conflict Zone  Deutsche Welle  November 1, 2024 12:30am-1:00am CET

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do that, it's all about saying it's loud and mess with it being nosy bay, like good. everyone to king. check out the award winning called called, don't call back the as the warning ukraine brings ever more death and destruction. key european officials fair moscow is now preparing for conflict with the west. i guess this week goes along with that view, these co for ro, same type of as sony as intelligence service. but he still believes russia can lose or task in the rest should be to make sure that the russia comes out of this conflict as a beacon polar. so how united is the west, and how vital is it that you've crane gets the weapons? it's one proper rose. you welcome to come because you haven't in your view,
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how long does the west have before it might or might have to fight to war with russia? of course i have to say that we don't really truck at the developments in the best . the question is the answer to that question is it should be as long as why shaw is defeated. i don't know, and i think this is a mission, which is absolutely possible to conduct as you say, that but in your intelligence reports in february, you said that a military confrontation with the west, russia was preparing for that. and that could happen within 10 years. but there are other people, other officials in europe who shouldn't make that timeline. in july, the chief of the general staff of the british army, general roni, woke up on the nato, had 3 to 5 years to prepare for war with what he called them,
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access about people. that's russia, china, north korea. and if we're on, do you agree with that? oh, okay, so for me to understand the question, but the point is that the, the time line, well the time, the space of what we have on our disposal before a potential conflict with russia. the 1st uh, they're also gonna affect us now in the pipeline low cost. first, we have to make sure that this potential event doesn't happen at all. so the 1st be placed on is a home with dos, the contract, the new crane, and that really determine the future bass. yeah. or for russia, we use the risk. so in, in this, this issue, if we have a situation after the, let's say ukraine rush of war,
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we had to rush out images from that. as a big, tory is very self confident power. it really made court calculations based on the new situation. then our task being the best should be to make sure that russia comes out of this conflict as a week and polar which or who might be then as ordering some of the internal programs which would probably or run into if there is a russian defeat in in the contract, and i think pointed with not to wife russian defeat, that the 2nd question is how long it takes to wash and store it. close it, do it, or jeanette, a. forces we have to keep in mind that and i would like to talk about the notion of the constitution. i would like to name the issue, maybe russian force generation or russian forces development may have to keep in
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mind that there are some all forces today are set about 100000 mind bigger than it was before the before launching the launch gave invasion. and that this is the capability to spot the rush of deeps generating forces to generate additional manpower. uh, wanting it to be gotta be got programs to meet that unit, i think. but good until they are on track with that. and or of course, i'm a nation production and equipment and production with the order refurbishment the production with the ocean so, so we know, you know what the actual we have. i want to come on and deal with some of those issues in, in detail. but this month's newspaper reports you're talking about, russia needs to be weaker if, if the west is to avoid a boy much weak from its will with ukraine. this month, newspaper report say russia had already received more than 200 ballistic missiles
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from iran at a port on the s b and c. and there was a risk of it more would be provided if there was massage, keep coming from iran on from other members of that so called access to about people. russia isn't going to emerge. we kids come a much, much stronger, isn't that if this trend continues to, the russians are cut off to trying to boost up. it's me that 30 strength and of course, based on that, made that his drink. they are conducting graduation on both the, the, the grade. so all the task is to make sure that the, at 3 showed that aisha is using a beneficial but the mom buddies beneficial on the 4 point print. it is also i would assess that the russia cannot keep this position rate up for coming. yes and yes. so we have to make sure that the ukrainians have the power to treat
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the russians as, as much as possible. and the question is, how do we know it's a deals with the russian intention bought resolve the ukraine and reset me read the rest again, the main task while i bought the after and sort of before it comes to any. but they've got to take the dream, the nato and russia, is to make sure that, that ukraine images as, as that as a big let's say, as being part of this, this quantity people started. but it doesn't look like that at the moment. does it? it doesn't look like it's winning, it's, it's, it's suffering steady loss is on the east and from nevermind the fact that it's advances and forces into the cossack region inside russia. but it's not doing well on the eastern front of toilers. it is a, i think situation has been difficult, but i wouldn't say that the russians are, let's say, doing great the item. what the question is probably
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a lot would like to do is to treat the crating on part as much as possible. possibly. so the green upfront would collapse, but i don't see that happening any time. sure. so and i'm not sure either. you have to rush have a clear victory strategy. also. i'm not sure they have that very, very clearly defined. they have at the end of public rhetorics of you know, what they want the looked at, based on what they say. but in the reality, it's something they kind of what the chief of all i would say. do you think come to suppose it was a wall with the west? uh, i think he respects that and they thought, but this also again, we have to make sure that this respect continues over the coming years and then it comes to all that part. then how are we prepared, how would our web transport it east and plank? uh sir, your sharing. he'd like to have a boy if he can get away with it,
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is that too? if he has the feeling that he gets away and nothing happens to him, he comes out clean and then it might run into the calculations. but i would say if i come back to ukraine, rush us advice, and then let's say even if it comes to the situation where there will be negotiations between the russia and maybe ukrainians. but i want to assess that that i shall score likely, likely only would like to talk to the americans only over the heads of your opinions. and they would also like to discuss the not donio crane, but also the broad executed date. europe as acute with the architecture, so what they call in but be used to push nato capabilities and activities. this as far as possible from the ocean boulder and based and create a new situation on the ground. a based on that. and then again,
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calculate for what from that moment and this type of discussion. all leslie is very dangerous if it comes to the agenda. okay, great. oh, oh, you talked about the need for, for nato to up its game. how much space do you have in the alliance at the moment i ask because 2 years ago, your former prime minister kaya carlos, was highly critical of nato's plans to defend the baltic states. she said they would have resulted in a stony, i think, wiped off the map and has nato optics game where it's planning is concerned. how does it, how does it come up with a upon like value in the 1st place? and i don't know how it came up with a plan like this, but i have the feeling that the was pretty hopeless, wasn't it then it was definitely not beneficial for us. but i would say, as far as i know, the plans have changed in that regard. the and, but it's a constant book. now of course,
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the new step of discussion in may talk between nato allies or different allies of different viewpoints, which is the oldest under. but it's a beauty of that last, but i think we are on the right track. most of the companies understand the threat, but that i suppose is also made and long term. and there is a general understanding that we have to be prepared or we have to be prepared to protect those of will defend dollars. so what about the troops that kind of call us one to the nato choose between 20 and 25000 to be based in estonia, as that happened when it happened. and the that's part of the question, more for chief of defense, how many tulips are needed here? and she went public saying that it is, it hasn't happened and she needed it to happen. i'm the last reports we have had saying that it hasn't happened. so the question to you? absolutely, because i think the question here is about the what you want. it's all designated
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for, let's say a reinforcement, the re, again, concrete numbers or more in the defense versus a domain. but over the question is, how many totes you have for what the pro, it's in the piece time, which must be also manage. evan, both in training get as an economically and what is probably important for us is that the we have already made the troops designate that for potential for along the reinforcements reached. and it would be launched in after appropriate or early warning that he's given so well, say on. so do you have enough troops or not at the moment to repel, to repel a russian advance? should that be one? i think we would view up, but we would give a good fight to the russians and then hopefully reinstall reinforcements with the right rapidly according to the plants. and do you have
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a cost on guarantee that move in so that the countries, the members of nato will fight side by side with you if you are attacked. uh, i'm pretty confident in that, but again, the small print is it, it's not even article 5. yeah, but the it, so the question is alternate the defense plants which are constantly developed and it's a ongoing but that's so it is we've been talking about a possible with russia, but in the sense it's already begun how soon to talk if you can talk to me a little bit about the sabotage operations that have the kremlin fingerprints on them. not just getting started here, but elsewhere in europe. is this, is this a growing trend? well, it is a total of what the national fix it can use against invest in order to disrupt us to bring tension in dollars. so saw this uh, the rush hour profile really helps to that to be relying on the all the good 5 with
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these activities in this don't upgrade this. we have more than 15 people arrested over the last year in the connection with the russian summer project. can you this, it seems that there's some opportunities to conduct that throughout the europe and in the bottom of us on it's at the it is something serious of a these, these attacks. i would say if i open the door and them case, then the 11, the battery slip a lot, and we have the incidence of vandalism mutual. and let's say more of this harmless, the opt awesome though, the question is, of course, the, let's say the how it develops. it has been, it has escalate that they hold is on things ready to go over the last year. so if this, the revere him of destabilizing um your country, or just keeping you on your toes or making people know of us,
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what the main thing for a mention, it also tries to undermine probably on the mind to support of the support to your grade. yeah, if you stipulate disrupt us, it is here to tell you our resource so, so we would pay more attention and though it was internal issues and trying to bypass our attention from the support the to do the upgrade. and let's talk about ukraine's urgent request to use long range west of messiahs on targets in russia. your president, our carriers port school and on the nato countries that have withheld use of a long range missiles for you, correct? because of fears of escalating, the crisis was the right to do that. you said it was pure self deception and reflected indecision and fear which played into russian hands. if your president is right to nato is becoming and decisive and fearful,
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the nato is no longer fit for purpose. is it? when i have to create me is my president know in this code and perfect. you know, some, many, if you're looking to based on it, there are some 7 other that's a new federal dimes. what that i show has sometimes successfully installed in the hands of best and us so the 1st as the and 1st battle dying. but that i shall see all trying to communicate is that the conflict should happen only on the 1030 of the victim and the address on what the what agent should be remain on punched. this is the 1st time in the military history. and the 2nd idea of what the issue is that trying to get it to communicate over, click over play to us. is that the right? it is impossible for russia to rules. again, it's not the correct the right size, last 7 of or so the throughout the, the he's the result nobody have up as of may. so i'm not persuaded them that all
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the other members are showing in his woods in decision and fear of a rush on. so i'll try and do the install this free or so. it is, of course, a task for us, for the eastern plank, gone to these 2 people explaining this to all the rest the allies. and i think down the standing is also need to be changing the already i don't know. so in the, in more or less than the contest, but the, i agree it has, let's say taken too long time. uh, vote for this change, whether it's an ongoing process, isn't it? because your president said i hear several countries expressing it does offer a quick diplomatic solution and compromise with russia. and there's a spreading hope that resetting relations with booting russia is possible or even inevitable. you don't believe that do you of my life. i been, i am convinced that the russian government,
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which he must be defeated strategically. because the you at this point is partially successful in these objectives, to be assessed that he would continue and print it, but so they've already knew crane would be not over and meet me. and if you have a pros and conflict that at some point the something the, something they like so, and they have to also understand the directions are according to them since they are in the war already with the collective, the best in their own understanding. so i don't see that many options because if you talk about the long term quantity, go as an ocean, then the make sure that the gradients be at the end. but again, i think it this to happen actually if the ukrainians don't get the weapons they need or permission to use the ones they have inside russia. will it be impossible
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for them to when i think that one weapon system that i'll talk, i'm simple example. it's a, that's a long range human size. yes, i think it has to be, it has become very symbolic. at this point. it looks at this map on system alone doesn't sort of the conflict, the adult. but the question is, it's about the, the body to go to the board or the, or understanding from russian side the, that they are able to detour us and based on on their thoughts. luckily they will create as having devin opening their own weapons, which seems to be sometimes more patient. and then i look at what happens in russia, but we've had a ukrainian politician on this program just a week ago saying the west has given us enough weapons to fight, but not enough to win. that's the view coming out of ukraine at the moment. don't
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you see where they're coming from? it is hard to argue little bit with this that it is on a threshold boyfriend. so the at the, in the side with more bills and more resource, really been. it's a question about pro, for that position rate for both sides. ukraine needs additional. good, both of those and the nation to make that happen. august the so again, we shouldn't be. somehow. we shouldn't. the restrain always setups in digital bought, doing the upgrade with any type of weapon. so i'm gonna nation they need and i agree that the it has taken to a long time, but as authorization, so they'll be made. but again, i don't see that the cost is lost properly at this point, but there are, there are divisions emerging in europe among nature. we have the check president
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present pabo saying ukraine needed to be realistic. the most probable outcome of the war would be that russia would hold on to some of the territories. it's captured at least temporary. that's pretty defeat just isn't the fact idea. takes root nato. that's not going to be good to ukraine. is it a little our talking point is that you create and can still be in this. so the discussions do we have the seems to be as in contrast to nato countries, russia has been busy transforming it's economy into a war economy. it's turning out there are munition and advanced weaponry, some of which is not so far, appearing on the battlefield. does that not suggest to you that russia is preparing for a much bigger conflict? the, let's say that about me see, said all the resources. so for rush, i'm on for so, so the russian federation imprinted but going good the what you crate.
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so if you look at the situation currently along all that borders, there is not much the russian military power available for the from, from the russian side. so that's, that's the good news. so the question is, if the, if it takes for russians so wrong, and it's sold, paying for it to try and do the feet deal gradients, then the question is, how would it, how would that i shot before? i'm against the risk, which is much more advanced. i'm not sure that would go well the conflict potential inflict would go out in the ocean the favor. of course, we have to make sure that the know a site, the proper resources, clients, equipment available, nomination stokes audit the, let's say needed 11. i would say best is of course, if the war stops in the right, so the active face of the conflict,
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the stop so we can buy the light or it least would be, it need to be very painful. what full russian economy to come out of this war economy the moment that would be very interesting to watch, so they would keep producing. and from that point, the lawn, if we take away the pre show me show, having you know, cream from that point on that, that's a growth or progression. we thought a, these then speeding up, i would say, ukraine's president zalinski has taken his what he calls his victory plan through washington to run it past the americans. he said it's applying to strength and ukraine and force russia to the negotiating table. is ukraine able to do that in your view for russia to the negotiating table? i haven't seen the victoria plan again. currently, i do not see any reading from russian side. when i go straight to anything sinks
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again the, let's say the best seed weakness of this invites further escalation from device on site is not just perceived. it is weak and it says it is weight based on division. in the way, i think we are actually a much stronger if we would be more of a link to let's say, play out this strength. and then the other point, this type, well what, what is, what are you waiting for? what's, what's the west waiting for? know, well uh, i mean they've been enough cookies and enough warnings. we are pushing the rest and allies to and not only be all the time is in the daily daily book. and this is the basis evasion. but again, i, i see some movement. so i'm not that basic music and all that on the day as a, in a book we have to point to one of the points in the presidency landscapes. victory
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plan is that he wants further security guarantees that we'll, that'd be worth the paper. the risk not even if he gets them the budapest memorandum, which was suppose to, uh, secure, uh, ukraine's future when he gave up it's nuclear weapons in 1994 hasn't done so well for them as it, particularly since it was uh guaranteed both by russia and america, so visa bought to bring them fast to data, which would be the proper notice if you were to go on to in our view. is, is your current going on when not at the moment? is it nothing less the west gets its act together and gives it the weapons? is it so going to wind noble. uh we have to think joe, what, what is it duration show up. what is the cutting in europe and the inability of russia? let's say bins and the said in this case induct basically with that would be story us self confident. the ratio which would the make photo long calculations based on
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the new situation, we would have a huge pro. well, for that, if we choose problem, ukraine, if let's say, if i shop would take over the country in one ford, one other. and we would have a situation where the ukraine of resources would it would be towing against of us by the russians and prayers that what keeps you awake at night? well then we are looking day and night. do, let's say prevent that from happening. how long as well for us this is existing show the issue we understand so that kind of be tired of doing that right. couple of really soon it's good to have you on the program. thank you very much for being with us. thank you very much for having the
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