a mess, things up risking brain damage. so let's stop this self sabotage. humans and multitasking watch. now on youtube, v. w documentary, the, it wasn't election watched around the world and an outcome that most of europe has been reading for years warmer. you as president, donald trump, is headed back to the white house with a little standing in his way this time promising his next administration will deliver a radical agenda at ports america 1st. so what does a new trump presidency holding store for germany? it's facing its own fresh elections after the governing coalition collapse on the same day as we us race was calls this week on through the points we're looking at from trials. what does it mean for germany, the

hello and welcome to this week's edition of to the point on claire richardson in berlin. and so please to welcome our panel. we have a joseph bramble, a us experts. brandon, born from the bertelsmann foundation and rachel towels and find from the german council on foreign relations. very warm welcome to you all. thank you so much for taking the time. brandon, let's start with you. this is the 2nd time the world is going to see a trump administration. how much more effective do you think he and his administration can be this time around? so i think it's a, it's a completely different scenario than 2017. he has of course, taking the senate at this point, it's likely that the republicans will take the house the, the key here over the next months is, you know, the, the supreme court as well. there are 2 supreme court justices that are, that are older as well. you know, who is to say, what will happen this 3 years,

but, you know, i heard something yesterday that really stuck with me. the in 2017, they had the house, they had the senate, they had the presidency. but he didn't quite have the agenda and they're likely not going to make the same mistake this time around. they're going to come ready to go ready to go. so joseph, germany also in its own political people at the moment of the same day as terms of victory was announced. we had a chancellor. oh, i've sold sacking the finance minister that's causing the government coalition to collapse. can you tell us what's going on here? and how that connects there. i think these 2 events are connected. german, 3 allies to gentle realized talking to my crawl. oh my god, it's trump. he means business. it's not going to be business as usual. so we need a lot more money on that. actually. what's the breaking point of the coalition is a smaller coalition partner. doesn't want to spend some more money, so he's still frugal about it. but frugality won't save us in this new world

because america won't be there for us. we have to realize that i think the one is the cost for the other. now we have to talk business and hopefully we're as well prepared in germany by the time he is in office. as this new drum team will be. so trump was the invisible man in the room as the coalition let us call him the allied amongst itself. yeah. he's a republican, it's rachel. um you know, we've had this inviting is been going on for months. it sounds like though the timing of the government coalition collapse in berlin is not truly a coincidence. yeah, it might not be a coincidence. i think what we're also seeing across the atlantic is it's difficult times to be doing politics. and it's a difficult times for, for parties, especially who are taking things seriously. and it's really a problem for me. what i worry about looking at the german situation is part of what helps from is the idea of, of many americans that the government is just not delivering for them. and this

chaos right now, i mean, hopefully they find a good solution and they provide good answers. but if they don't, you have the same problem in germany that people are going to increasingly have the idea, the normal parties, the non populace parties, they can't deliver. all right, well donald trump's most ardent supporters actually see him as a savior after winning the election from made himself out to be a messiah like figure curios, speaking about the attempt on his life at a pennsylvania campaign earlier this event this year, gregory, this was i believe the greatest political movement of all time there's ever been anything like this of this for i know it's going to reach a new level of importance because we're going to help our country hills. many people told me that god spared my lives for a reason and that reason was to save our country and to restore america to

great is so brandon of putting america 1st. is that part of the promise to make america great again, with what benefits does it actually offer trump supporters? would you say? well, i think that's the big question over the next couple of years. you know, the, the idea of having baseline terrace, of 10 to 20 percent on all imports coming into the country that was coming. here's a southern point that looked the, the, these costs are going to come down to consumers in united states. america 1st policy, in many ways a trend towards isolation is and the trend away from multi lateral isn't on the international stage. puts the united states in a more difficult position. the us needs. 6 actors dear can union to no counter in russia and china global adversaries. so rachel, if americans are indeed going to feel this when they go shopping is the price was passed on to consumers just to look at the terrace, for example. is it a good deal for america? this america, 1st brand of nationalism. does it strengthen the united states position?

i mean, i don't think so, especially terrace policies are going to be very expensive. but there is this sense among a lot of americans, especially americans whose main foreign policy experiences with the wars. and i've got a son in iraq that the us needs to stop being so active in the world that needs to spend a little bit more time fixing things at home. and that's, that's part of what helped trans when and the elements of that the, you know, that are, are needed. so we'll see. yeah, that idea that resources that had been spent elsewhere, especially abroad with american foreign policy now will be redirected to help people at home. um, do you think that holds water, joseph will americans and trump supporters actually feel the effect and see the benefits of this realignment? they will be in for a disappointment. i wouldn't call it is relation as much protection as monday the, the old school republicans would have called data tax for consumers. that's what terry saws as a chicken will come home to roost and will be more expensive. no chicken in every

pod for everybody to rephrase a former president. so it will be costly, it will drive inflation and china is out there so you can make the argument. maybe we, we, we, we didn't really focus on the real threat where, too much absorbed wisdom, at least that's why america drifted to what a show pivot the to with the issue. but now america learns we have to go back. there is chaos there. but the truce could be maybe we are seeing, witnessing the end of bucks. some of the kind of the middle east is not really a place where america is calling the shots any longer. because of this focus too much on china, the china, china. but what america will have to learn a china is also related to the middle east because they're schmoozing up to the saudis and too much more so china is, is gaining ground and even in europe. and so this trump administration, and for my ministrations who have been focusing too much on china, will have to learn china is a world power. and if you want to compete with

a what power you has to be engaged in the world as america has been in the good old days, we still remember fondly. alright, so terrorists, america's role on the world stage. what really new trump administration mean for the rest of the world? well, being back in the white house is something about political leaders here in germany, at least. and also in most of europe have been fearing for years. or trump is casting down on the commitment to assist the fellow nato members. if russia attacks, he does not want to grant protection to nations and not meeting they are agreed upon to present defense contributions. germany will meet its target in 2024. but that might not be the case for subsequent years. so far, the usa has been ukraine's most important arm supplier. trump is calling that into question to europe auto take care of it. he brags about his friendship with polluting and allegedly plans to end russia's born ukraine within 24 hours. experts

fear addicted, tauriel peace and russia's favor america 1st, trump is also putting economic pressure on europe. she wants tears of 10, if not 20 percent and imports. and as much as 60 percent of imports from china as an export oriented country in germany is already in a difficult situation. and it's likely to get hit even harder, a tree more, maybe looming. europe could also be torn between the protection as blocks of the us and china. it's most important. trading partners is europe prepared for trumps return? so lots to unpack here. joseph, often when i talked to americans, they asked me, what do germans think of donald trump? and i think there's a pretty clear answer. right. well, they would have wished carmella harris would have made it, and actually 3 or 4 germans and paul's expected harris the, when they were in for

a big surprise. they underestimate trump as they did before, they didn't see the more season campaign. they saw harris's smiling looking good, but they didn't see her floss and didn't see how trump was playing his game and how it would resonate. so to put it short, they don't know how american functions, but they may be forgiven because many academics from america come to germany don't understand their own country either. another point is part of the problem. we don't see what's going on in the united states. so rachel, when trump says things like the germans, did he loved me, does he on does something there? oh, he's definitely on something there. and the term team doesn't really love the germans either. so it's a, it's a mutual, it's a, it's a, it's a mutual problem. and they think we can expect similar things in the 2nd term. it's going to be a problem for germany. germany is often the kind of target of trump's iron and his

teams and especially something like the tariff policies. he's suggesting for an export, the economy like germany is it's going to be particularly expensive. so, and it's, it's trying times now for the european allies of the us. yeah. it certainly, as i mean this, as we've said, has long been a nightmare for, for much of berlin. why do you think germany and also europe weren't better prepared for the return of donald trump? it's something we've been talking about for years are absolutely. i mean, i think in many ways the preparation should have probably started a couple of years ago. and this year it seemed, you know, we something we were trying to do also within my organization. you know, there was a push to say, hey, look at project 2025, look at the plans out there. this is going to be your insured in short order. i think the europeans, in many ways will be tested in the next months to see if there's, there's an appropriate response. and especially when it comes to things like defense and security, right. this is

a conversation that's been going on behind the scenes. and yet, germany is still very much dependent on united states in many ways. why do you think there was not more going on behind the scenes? rachel? because the things that need to happen on the european side are also difficult decisions. there's a kind of division among the europeans of how exactly they want to be stronger. they want to do it through strengthening european defense industry. or do they want to do it through trans atlantic cooperation and buying what's necessary from the us or south korea? and until the europeans can agree on this, it's hard for them to move forward. so i think everyone was just hoping all will be saved again from these hard decisions. and that's not the case. and you know, if there's a positive, then maybe the europeans will be pushed to make these hard decisions and move forward as they should have done 2 years ago. at least. um, but, you know, better late than never. yeah. joseph, do you think they will do that? do you think this is going to force a change within the way you're up? thinks about its own security? trump will do the trick, i think was harris. we would have been dozing for another for years,

not realizing that the pac submitted content is over america has under any circumstances, more important business to attend to in asia. that's where they can amik challenger, the military challenger is. and america has limits to a, you know, it's, it's the most powerful country on this planet. uh, but it cannot, the $10.00 to $3.00 see us at the same time. it has to protect this row. it has to focus on china, the china, china, and russia. that's going to be europe's probably lemon. we better wake up. now if there were some analysts who said it didn't really matter who one from or, or come to a harris at this next administration. and united states would have marked a turning point in transatlantic relations. anyway, do you agree with i completely agree with that actually, with my american co offer, we are writing a book now we have to be faster. have to be out because now about the end the tax break on, i don't give you the exact title i need would have come with her is

a little bit later a bud was trump, i think it's, it's clear or trump will be a magnifier. how else could that be? so he will push history even for his are i think we have seen the end of the protection by america for europe. we have to grow up fast. so in that sense was bite and perhaps the last american president to still really had a close personal relationship to europe and who understood this alliance that was forged in the cold war. exactly. drove button was born before nato was even found. it means he knows the transatlantic relationship, and i think he looks at the international order and kind of with a transatlantic, a new point of view. so to say, but i think in many ways, you know, harris, she didn't have the same relationship to europe in her rhetoric. she's pro e u, she's pro nato. she's pro ukraine. but, you know, we had the congressional elections yesterday as well, even if calculators and one. and the republicans have picked up the senate. we

would be in a very similar situation with the look. you trained the difficulties that europe would face from a, a, from a, a, a us ally and support and that complet. yeah. perhaps no one was watching this election more closely than kids, right? ukraine. rachel is. we've heard trump saying that he could and rushes war on ukraine in 24 hours. do you think that's true? no, that's of course not true. um. but it like his promises without us and i think we should take the idea behind the sort of outs. absurd statements, true, he deaf really wants to get the he wants to get an end to that, or he wants to end do a support for it. he's been very consistent about that. i mean, so lensky, you know, came out with a positive message. they're trying very hard to strengthen their relationship with the trump administration, but i think they've been completely consistent on this point. trump is going to want very quickly to and us support and to push for an end to that war so that he can also call it his victory. 24 hours is obviously insane. but that it will be

a top priority. i don't doubt at all. okay, and joseph is that then an x, a central threat for ukraine to it is an essential threat for europe if we understand it the right way. and i think trump of the deal make it will make a deal. he will go to put in and say ok, you can have this one 5th of ukraine's on bus crimea. that's yours, that's your quote. on so on it there. he may not put it this way. that's what you want. but at the same time you stop supporting around i think a ron will be sooner then later on our plate is real, is is going off the, the perceived bomb. iran has now lost it's uh, 2 weapons from us. and his paula, though they, they, they feel naked, so they will probably go for the bomb to have a good turns. that's what is real things. and then we'll do preemptive strike. and frump, already insinuated, go, go for it by and held them back. so maybe israel or iran,

both of them. iran was careful to hit back because they didn't want to help trump, the strong commander in chief perceived as americans do to get into the white house . now he will be in the white house. so maybe around is doing something stupid. israel will retaliate. so maybe in between we have a heavy situation in the near used for europe. yeah. for americans. it's the middle east, but this is the near is the now i'm not sure whether our dream walkers or sleep walkers, in building or aware of what's around the corner. what could happen? hm. i mean, there are other issues in us policy that affect everybody, right? things like climate change, do we have a sense of what trump policies there regarding the environment, what they're going to be, what, whether europe might follow his lead even? well, i think, you know, if you look at documents like demanded for leadership project 2025, he's made it very clear um through the heritage foundation through a p, i through his own campaign statements that we're going to in the united states is going to have experience

a complete reversal from the binding years. the button administration was responsible for putting through the largest class as legislation in the history of the united states. we could see the irish repealed or uh those, this one is not spent accordingly. the pip, there is peace climate accords, those will with the united states will withdrawal. so i anticipate difficult times of head for you us cooperation on climate policy. let's talk about some other possible ripple effects across europe as well. right. so do you think other right way populist in europe will benefit from, from selection from him and out of office? i mean, i think there can be no doubt that having a friend in the white house strengthens 1st of all those elements within, within their political landscape. it also gives them, you know, the messaging examples and these stabilizes the governments and power, which also again strengthens their hands. so i think there are lots of ripple effects to this. politics is only going to get more complicated in europe in

a time where also the challenges are growing. yeah, as you suggest, some of them do share. similar campaign promises things regarding the cost of living as of how to use towards migration toward peace and ukraine. for example, joseph, who do you think specifically will be watching trump selection with great interest and perhaps admiration? maureen, the pin for sure. the france, i mean she, she took the play book, the ultimate to, for germany. i see definitely the literal got him. i mean, they're basically the same as trump, without the original of maybe one day. they will have a charismatic leader. and then we're really in trouble. and so many more in europe . i mean there's a dispute now whether it's victor or button who was a role model for trump. trump with dispute. it's, but definitely open all feels better. no good friend of his is not in the white house. he. he's already talking peace talks with the old new york. yeah. it's been talking to these talks about ukraine was drunk. so. so i think uh these guys will

be in good shape because the problems around all their trump has been using, abusing was populous means, the problems that out there. so we need now governments that are effective, i'm waiting here in my own country to have a new government and let's hope we get our act together. yeah, it's interesting. you mentioned hungry. do you want to pick up on it just for a moment because fiona hill, a security advisor who worked under bush obama and trump? um she said that the system under trump would be a hungry on steroids. do you agree with our assessment? i mean, what do you have if you have a supreme court and you know, these guys, trump has put on the bench and you say there may be 2 more. i mean they, they are conservatives faded by the federal society. so i'm not worried about the chords as i am was was hungry or even poland was so here i think this of supreme court,

you have people that maybe comes about this on the board and on this and that states versus national. but they all principal people, so you have really people who know what they're doing. i don't think in europe our court in that good shape. uh, as america is, i mean you may disagree as a neighborhood, as this court is still, but compared to the situation in europe, i definitely think the supreme court is in better shape. and i think that will be for the time being, the only check on the, on the, on, on the when say i'm per i, but on the policy for a new guy. and if you don't worry, we'll do is check and balance. yeah. i really wish i had that confidence. i mean, the probably the hope. yeah. right. okay. help. yeah, i, i mean, i think the conservative justices are, are, you know, serious about some things. but one of the things they're serious about is the unleashing executive power. they've been pretty consistent in this, and we also saw the new ones on the yeah, sure. yeah, a, and so you have now

a majority that wants to see the executive having a lot more power. they've ruled on this. and that's where i think we are heading. you know, it'll be slower. we're not there yet. but we are heading in a uh, or by direction when you have court to one, the executive to have unleashed power to be immune from prosecution. which also means he can completely controls the dresses and trays. nobody can tell him anymore . what you want to do is a legal. yeah. that kind of the thing to basically not avenue where we'll see the dismantling of american democracy. absolutely it's, it's very clear that this has been an agenda for major, major portions of the republican party for, for decades. and there's never been a better time structurally for the republicans to get these emissions over the finish line. the one president could potentially have 5 picks for the supreme court that really says something and then it's, it's become more political that the, that the standards to, to, to have a justice go through. the senate had been lowered to a simple majority. democrats spies picking the new kill option and they opened the

door for and finally against pushing everybody on the bank. and the result is that there's, there's not a need for compromise in the end that important body. yeah. originally earlier mentioned also the german case, and you've mentioned the f d. the alternative for germany, joseph. but rachel, i'm curious how you think they will politicians in general in germany. we'll be looking at the selection, what they're going to do with that. i mean, different, different parties are gonna look at it very differently. but for example, if you look at the success of the sarah wagner textbook, just so bargain takes potty part of their message is peace in ukraine. and they're, they have really a member of a mirror of trumps policies. they also are promising that they can somehow resolve this, you know very quickly and easily without asking vicks or unreasonable sacrifices or ukraine, or they just don't even care about the details. and so, for example, if by if the trump administration pushes to end the war in ukraine, you're going to have political pressure also on the german and ministration with

upcoming elections. it's going to be hard to resist and hard to make that case. yeah. is that also your view, joseph? so i think of a broader scenario coming back to the powers of the president. and what we can then do, i mean, just imagine china is testing uh, trump, in, in the medium. uh, you know, a trump later on pushes more sanctions controls more not only energy flows, trade flows, finance flows, and triangles. china and china blockades have on come on, try to the cross 160 see miles but located think of a cuba crisis. inverse of then trump is as the as the into our minds. sealants leg is so not only the courts will be silent, but also congress will be sucking up to the president. so you have what time president on china and us is

a difficult situation. so let's not forget the dragon in the room that's still out there. so just last spots for almost out of time, but brandon, how will democracies in europe then work with the trump administration, but at least 4 years i had to think about yeah, i mean that's, that's the, that's, that's really the difficult road ahead. and i think looking at the sort of carry on, but yes, thank you. got it. got about okay. the more so all right, sounds good. so we looked at trump, i think when he looks at europe in particular, he looks at europe not through brussels. he looks at it through bilateral relationships. that's where i see individuals like war, bon fico. in slovakia i was fight, it was the 1st german politician to celebrate donald trump victory yesterday. so you know that that's worrying. certainly for democracies on the side of the it doesn't call it divide and conquer it is so well, thank you so much all for the fascinating conversation. i really appreciate you being here. that is our show for today. we were speaking to joseph brumbalow, brandon, born, and rachel 1000. find again,

i'm clear. richardson in berlin. we hope you enjoyed the conversation. if you're watching on youtube, let us know what you thought in the comments section. thanks for watching. and so your next time the, [000:00:00;00]

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