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tv   The Day  Deutsche Welle  November 12, 2024 3:02am-3:30am CET

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to the german economy, the situation is been compounded by the collapse of the governing coalition in berlin. and european governments were quick to congratulate trump on his return to the white house. but when dealing with the future president on search and t is the key word, i'm clear, richardson in berlin, you were watching the day the he was elected by the american people and he's going to defend their interests even a couple people have no doubt that this new political landscape is a serious challenge for everyone. the question is, are we ready to defend the interest of europeans, all of the leaders, the one to since invitations, united states. they don't, we shouldn't be not even our trans atlanta system. so that's why we should not expect the americans to protect us. you dance with those who are in the room. that also applies to the us president of the legs. also coming up
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on the day. well, trump's chemistry with turkish president, wretched up type air to one help improve ties between the 2 countries. finds a, i think trump will have closer relations with ad one because biden's door was closed with trump. they will, these be able to talk. and as i've sequenced every 6, let's take a close look at what a new trump presidency could mean elsewhere in the world 1st at east asia. and then the situation here in germany or for years the united states has been trying to bolster ties with democracies in east asia as a way of countering rising chinese influence. but can these partnerships would stand for more years of donald trump? and how will us allies respond another time? so donald, trump and governments across the in the pacific expects him to take an america 1st approach to the region. then now calculating how,
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who responds to j eclipse contentions that have shopping since is last time and office suite competing, showing the threats to taiwan maritime disputes in the south china sea under rest. if north korea trump could demand us partners pay more for their own defense, as we'll talk, receives to closer together. and i think that's one thing to watch whether or not, how trump gubbins drives us allies in age of 10 sales. where in the world to take more responsibility for the security which, you know, both might be a good thing in some sense. this book was as a potential, it's kind of escalating the arms race that we've seen and age. and the last few decades largely driven by china. and they'll make space that trump is also likely to double down on economic competition with aging. you've threatens to impose terrace of up to 60 percent on us imports from china. although many asian nations count the us is that she's security guarantor,
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aging is for many the biggest economic partners. but that's gonna inject a lot of economic uncertainty for the region, particularly for a region like asia that is incredibly dependent on trade. and kind of this though, is workings of supply chains. overall, let's say china could capitalize on trump's ton inwards and the vacuum he could be imagined. ready to ship it? i think yeah, that does erode this idea of what kind of us that system the us that well but the u . k. and i'll be your opinion powers, maybe japan, korea, australia, you seem to be part of an offering kind of the best solutions to the well, i think china will selectively look for certain areas where he can offer a better solution. and we'll just make the case. i think by the end sometimes more loudly that you had to show you. there isn't only one way of doing things as control the 2nd time that as a common refrain, the only predictable things is that it will be unpredictable. now that unpredictability also has governments in europe concerned, especially berlin,
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as the united states is germany's largest trade partner. let's talk economy and future us. german relations with professor york russell. he is an economist and presidents of the european school of management and technology here in berlin. welcome to the w. thank you very much. so what would, on american 1st america 1st policy and then probably more trade terrorists mean for germany's exporters and, and who would be hit the hardest here, terminate as you would say, the wrong model of an open economy. it's very open to exports and imports. it's open to basic traits, relationships to all parts of the world. but in particular, the united states are very important to germany as the biggest export market also has a major destination for german investments. and so in particular, those industries that are heavily dependent on exports to the united states to come into effect trust that will be hit. this is what they could already see by the stock market reactions to these common effect risk following the election. and will be a big question of whether they actually may even increase the investments in the united
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states to get behind the protection. so the best of you to get out of the tariff game. oh, that's so interesting. what do you mean by that? exactly what you expect, like car manufacturers, for example, would do. so the german come into effect was already very much present in the united states. they also produce a lot there. so they employ a lot of people there. but still, the ex spots are needed in order to satisfy the demand in the us market. so therefore, what is, what could actually happen is if indeed terrace go up that production by drum and coming to manufacturers in the united states will go up in order to assess even more of the domestic market in the united states. let's take a look at donald trump as a figure. how different do you think his upcoming administration will be then the one that we've seen from joe biden, or what could have been accomplished harris administration? or are america's national interest billy radically different, depending on who is actually sitting in the white house. yeah, let's say they have 2 pots. one certainly is to expect a little bit of unpredictability when it comes to the trump administration to see
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that it's not so clear what exactly is going to happen at the same time we shouldn't on the estimate of the also the by the administration had certain policies in place, which also meant america to be put at the 1st place. it's also that's, for example, the orientation to focus on china was strong, was abiding, that ministration would become maybe even stronger his trump. so these are maybe rather regular shift. now some have said that regardless of who won the us election, this would be the end of trans atlanta system. as we know what to do, agree with that statement. that's certainly a risk to it. but at the same time, we should also remind everyone on both sides of the atlantic, how much the strengths of the engine partition it has benefited both parts of the atlantic. and this is what we should keep in mind in terms of a peace and freedom prosperity. in particular, because a tariff, as much as it may help, in default run to some us industries. it would also have the united states, for example, by making things more expensive and stationary. precious to go up. so,
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and many other aspects to really come in. now we should say that germany isn't a particularly vulnerable spot right now. on the same day the race was called for donald trump. you also saw the collapse of the governing coalition here. what does, how does that play into a new trump administration? this is certainly a variable around the modem at the moment in that we don't have a real government at this place. so therefore it would be more important to come up with a new government very early on. that because it not only has impact on the national stance, it also has an impact on if there should be trade negotiations on the european level for germany to play a role there. and actually to put an impetus in what is needed for a drug and industry plus to also think about the european level which other types of trade agreements would be necessary. for example, when it comes to nicholas or other parts of the one. ok. and what else does europe and germany need to do in order to, to bolster itself against an incoming trump administration, and that uncertainty that you've described. so suddenly it is important to think
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about traits agreements, also differentiation with diversification of other parts of the world, which are many and your could ex, spot. maybe more importantly though, is the, the perfect ending of the internal market. so your is benefiting a lot from its internal markets, but best of so many barriers in the us. so for example, when it comes to investments, capital markets. so for example, this capital markets union is maybe more important than ever before. really to false. the investment in capital locations across europe. and why do you think that has not happened to date? is it going to take of donald trump presidency to push these kinds of changes through the maybe this is the only if you will, the positive side to it. uh, once the various mall for say, of a crisis coming up of this, the risk of, of prices. it has always benefited europe in the sense of getting together coming together and making decisions that otherwise wouldn't be possible. and that might be actually really the point at which such an impulse, such a momentum should be used to get into the internal capital markets and,
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and other perfection of the intel and market. i'd be interested if you could speak a little bit more about the greater moment that we find ourselves in here. you've, you've written that. trump is more of a symptom of a trends than actually being the person behind that transitive driving change himself. what, what did you mean by that? exactly. so the main point is that even was the on by administration, the interest in the united states has shifted from the atlantic to the pacific ocean. so that means in particular, the rivalry was china has become more and more important. it's something that will also keep the new administration busy. and these are the aspects that are very relevant to consider. so this means this actually would have been a shift no matter which administration would take over. so therefore, this is, you could say it more secular trend we've seen, you know, the reason they say yes or yes. well, thank you so much for joining us with your expertise today. it was a real pleasure to speak with you all things us german relations and beyond that is professor, you are russell, an economist, and
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a president of us empty. thank you so much. donald trump selection wind has been welcomed and see was he asked equally in talking president wretched tie up arrow on calls from a friend and says he hopes that trump administration can help and the conflicts and ukraine and the middle east relations between air to one and president joe biden has been cool and everyone may be hoping for a return of that personal chemistry which marks the 1st trump presidency. as julia han reports from turkey, things might not go as smoothly as ever to one hopes. donald trump wants to class that he was a big fan of talking to the rest of tie of ad on the president and i have been we've been very good friends. we've been friends for a long time, almost from day one of the last time he was an office. trump also threatened to destroy the attackers economy. and are you concerned they for the one,
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we'll try to wipe out the kurtz. i will wipe out his economy if that happens. i've already done it once. how is he able to maintain cordial ties with ad on the side commons like these? and what does trumps return to the white house? the means of talking us ties for president avalon. this is a big victory as well. the chemistry between the 2 man is pretty much based off being fellow strong man is shared world view uh, based on power based on uh, the demonization of their enemies ad one congratulate to his friend trump. and said he hoped for new periods until official american relations. some people here in a stumble or not quite as excited while i did. i think sean proponents do anything for techie, but it would be good if he at least stops the board, especially in the middle east. dropped from the trunk. he's a savage, a barbarian. yeah, i mean he's a funny so you give it
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a we really don't need people like the yoke ya barely some other business judgments . you'll find a i think trump will have closer relations with ad one because biden's door was closed with trump. they will, these be able to talk, and the subsequent service, the president of the republic after 12, the outgoing biden administration, has seemingly kept the tech as president at arms length. trump had fairly frequent meetings and phone calls would add one during his 2017 to 2021 presidency. but a close personal relationship might not be enough to smooth over a long standing disagreements between the 2 nato allies. data structural problems into by that's really the relationship that won't just go away because of a change of leadership in the united states. we're about to enter a turbulent period in turkish american relations. make no mistake. this will not be an easy time interpretation. american relations here are some of the main sticking
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points to these removal from the f 35 fighter jet program due to its patches of the russian made air defense system. us military support to cut a scopes in syria, which conqueror considers an extension of the p k. k. a designated terrorist ad once continued friendly relations with russia following the kremlin invasion of the crane and his refusal to join west and sanctions have also ended to by an administration. trump is very likely to push you upgrade to a ceasefire on most coast tons. of course, the springs that lots of questions and the risks of 481 i see ukraine and russia is actually something that can improve turkish american relations. under a trump administration, there will have to be negotiations between ukraine and russia as well a. and there is a strong chance or the one would be willing to play the mediator in the middle east, washington and encore i have backed opposing sides. and because i want to jump is
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very likely to introduce support to israel and particularly to the, to the side of the be a is drive the axis edge. i see it on that much also to great vision of wide conflict ritual. the very significant skill over the facts on turkey. so this and others disagreements between turkey and the west, so likely to endure no matter how much presidential chemistry there might be. looking across it as dumble and bringing our correspondent dorian jones for more on this dory, an u. s. turkish relations. they've been relatively strange under the bite and presidency. is there a sense there that this is about to change? i think that the young car is expected because of the victory of president trump. uh prizes and todd warm was very quick to congratulate trump describing him as a friend. speaking to a foreign policy advisor to one, they said the magic word is chemistry. they believe that these 2 men trump nod long
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shed much and comment that both carrots practically does. then they both of man that the believe that they can make deals. and on top of that, they both have a sense of unpredictability. so i think that there's a sense that we have a trump, they will be a new trap to interpret us relations on why they also optimistic he's in the, under the previous trump administration. good woman met trump 9 times, face to face, including a state visit to washington. and they were regular communications, particularly on a sunday between the 2 liters. compare that to the present by the administration of the one is only met by and twice on the sidelines of intellectual summits. and the relation for very much confined to a foreign policy level that didn't suited one load one very much like face time between a lead is protect, particularly will powers node one, please with face on seats in the line. now they need difficulties, although it has to be said speaking to circles within the one, there is also a sense of concern to because they are aware under the previous trump
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administration from pressure the temperature economy plunging the currency lever into rec, hold folds of, of differences and then and latoria sweet mode one threatened to gain, to destroy the touch economy if he's to moans want met. so there is a sense of a risk with the trump administration, but very much the encore, it's focusing on the positive. they see this is a major opportunity, but it's also when it comes big risks as well. so as i say beyond to the optics and the chemistry, there are areas where they may not be as aligned or perhaps they are. tell us a little bit more. i'm curious specifically what a trump administration will mean for american backend, for curbs in syria, as we heard something that turkey opposes are. absolutely. this is an issue that has plays into us to increase relations occur. accuse this is curtis group at the us would be supporting this mortgage. the slamming state of being affiliated with the p k. k which is a terrorist organization that's been fighting the tuck the state for decades. and
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these on career said that that support from a may twilight, simply unacceptable. and the reason they looking more positively with trump, but on the previous trumpet ministration. 3rd one, managed to succeed in persuading from to withdrawal those u. s. policies. but so subsequently a trump step back and only reduced the number of the us forces. now on crypt believes that the stalls are aligning for a full pullout. given the fact that the washington has reached an agreement with iraq to withdrawal orders forces from iraq and the rockies, the major supply room for us forces into syria and the us pull out those forces all seem to be very much isolated to load. one sees this opportunity now with a trumpet, ministration of reaching, some kind of deal for the pull out all those us forces. now it has to be set. they will be expect to be some push back and pushing to any us pull out from that region . would leave of back to many people and that would open adult a possible a rating impact. melisha is seizing control of that area. so that will be a controversial decision. but 3rd, one very much believes that he can reach a deal over this. over many point tell the trump will be looking for something in
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exchange. what that will be, what took you can also remains to be see another foreign policy issue that will be watched incredibly closely is the ukraine war. of course, what do you think on current is going to be looking for in that conflict? again here, i mean the other one is looking very positively towards the trump administration. they're very pleased about the signs, and in the case of the trump said he really wants to end this conflict of one of the many is being pressing to some sort of solution. he has good ties with the russian president vladimir putin. i'm the ukranian counterpart, belong voter, david zalinski, and the other one has been trying to broke resolution. he believes that we've trumpet possibly. our solution can be reached. the ukraine, russian war has very much we can the talk to the economy and the fear was afoot for escalation. all that content will bring more instability for talking to them for a keep, but some kinds of solutions they also see are the one of the possible piece different than any piece solution that would open the door on chris hoping for major reconstruction contracts. so tuckers companies and also i think,
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oh would very much then to pay some kind of roland, any brokering of be given his coast tides with both sides. he'll be looking to work with trump, possibly having a position with a high table facilitating some kinds of thoughts on that much very much what play very well without doing support is very keen to see the ones sitting again at the high table with world leaders and broke some kind of piece solution was certainly, boy his so a ratings in the country as well as the other one is looking very positively to some kind of solution to the ukraine. russia will thank you so much for that. that is our correspondent, dorian jones, reporting from is tumble. the ukranian authorities are warning that russia is warming up for a mass of attack that after deadly air raids on several cities. 5 people died in the southern city of vehicle life. after the attack stroke a residential area, another person was killed in south for risha in the southeast. a missile also hit
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the central city of can review the ukraine issued an air raid warning across the country and cuts out power supplies after the air force warranty. the russian bombers had taken off from their basis to w, corresponded and economy is in queue for us as he has been since the beginning of russia's full scale invasion. i asked him about this latest wave of attacks. this is possible, replace the scene for the last 2 months. we've seen rush the dining up the, the pressure, especially with the drone attacks. and yes, ukraine has received all the way in terms of western defense systems, but it is not enough to cover country of this size. and as such, people are constantly very close to the fact that their lives might be at risk. and it is just very difficult to go down to the bombshell to every night. this is some of these, these average can last for 34567 hours. and if people want to go about the business ones that have a job one to go to school the next day, it is always that question that people ask themselves, is it what? interrupting nicely, is it worth going for safety and potentially being unable to function next day or
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is the danger real enough for me to take that old in into account? so it is a very difficult situation here. for now, the power supplies all working, they had being cut off in certain places as a preventative measure to protect against commerce energy system. but people are expecting worse as the weeks go ahead and the temperatures go down as winter resets and difficult times. i had indeed next, let's talk about donald trump, the election victory in the united states has it emboldened vladimir putin as some fear. i think we basically seen pretend pushing results is towards basically you're intensifying the war and you claim for the last 2 months or so. i think it's part of a big point the who's trying to make even during election campaign, irrespective of who won that this is a will that is on winnable for the west to for ukraine. that's the position he's drawing that kind of opinion he's trying to get across. the rushes to can choose losses in the process. the see if the study will recently calculated that russia has sustained more losses about 80000 losses. that's injured and dead in the east
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of ukraine in september, october model system, the us sustained in basically 2 decades in iraq and afghanistan. so a real willingness to, to invest a huge number of lives and resources and drops out to say that, for example, we couldn't carry this on for too much longer. but he's really trying to create this impression in the hope that then eventually they'll track steve. somebody wants forces ukraine to capitulated basically, except his terms, but for now, it still seems that, you know, pitching, thinks he can get more from trump than just kind of freedom of conflict where it is . we've had very kind of kind of mixed messages in terms of the kind of a criminal speaks for such people, you know, kind of 2 of us desire to get to talking on on, jump to terms. a real sense that most of the things is winning and that it can get more and not just hold onto what it currently controls, but also get more ukrainian directory. so it is really unclear when you kind of the section where this is going to go. if trumpeting office is gonna actually realize
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that giving up, you know, ukraine and getting into printing will be damaging to his reputation to american strength and how people see american the world. but it is a very, very scary moment. people hearing your crime, that's definitely the case. so when you speak to people that when you speak to ukrainians, when they're hearing these plans coming out of the united states and what we might see from a trump presidency, he said he could end the war in 24 hours. for example. what are they telling you of the i think you have very different messages and most people hope that jumping off is going to be a bit different from trump on the campaign trail. that he will be convinced by people who have much experience, who are connected to in the us. some of that tree that this isn't in america's interest to have, you know, kind of ukraine that is under russian control on the board as nato and poland say that there is a hope that you can, can make a case to trump that supports in ukraine is also in america's interest of their financial, potentially can all make payoffs for uh, you know, having a strong ukrainian friend. and i think there is also
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a sense here of kind of trying to work out what actually is true. what is trump through the intention was just noise just in the last kind of week or so we've had a huge number of stories from this alleged cool that happened between trump and tutoring. where recently, then we had the crime and coming out saying that is not true that this will never happened. we've had people who relate to it, basically written offices contract as to the public and policy coming out and saying that ukraine should give up on crimea. and basically, you know, move on and doing it except for that slow. so i think there is a lot of noise right now, a lot of speculation. most people who aren't necessary, particularly informed, coming out and claiming to speak for the trump camp. and people here and ukraine, just desperate to find out if they can actually get through to the man and find out what he really thinks and what he really will do for you. crane when he gets into white house next. thank you so much for your recording as always. that's our correspondents, nick connelly, and kia hi, just before we go with some news from here in the german capital on elephant here
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at the berlin zoo has been delighting researchers with her bathing routine. mary, the elephant. she's been keeping clean and taking a shower without any help from humans. her keepers say she's figured out how to use a hose to spray water onto her back. and while she hasn't quite yet mastered using soap or a shower cap, anything like that, she has really impressed scientists with her skills and that is our show for you today. you can follow our team on social media at data . be news. if it's latest headlines after there's always our website dw, dock. com, i'm clear. richardson and berlin for me in the whole team. thank you for watching. the
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sure you see the wells most successful car insurance. not taking himself too seriously. makes me afraid in the mail room next on d. w. fear, anger and resignation. the war in the middle east is highly polarizing. we
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ask young israelis and palestinians in berlin. what their experiences have been like over the past year. they still feel at home in the city whose voices had been silenced. set become loud noise up in 60 minutes on d w the oh. i want to tell you something. it's a day of me. my house. i don't think it was a shot. i never saw that is what happened to me. many people here are talking about it for the very 1st leaving here, you know, event living with h a, b space, a lot of discrimination. raising awareness of h o, d, and on and we're stuck in this cycle. shame silence. we need to
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break out of a. i want to tell you something. how to tell the secret starts november 29th on dw, the, i'm just going to jump in and turn it on because the thought is what is sort of special. great. i mean come on the idea of the phenomenal this is stupid.

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