we ask why, because education makes the world make up your own mind. made full minds. the china is counting on its world, beating export machine to help pull it out of its economic slump. but that's the strategy is been complicated by wave of terrace and it's not just the usual suspects in the west. so far this year, several developing economies. i've taken action against what they believe is, china is over capacity from electric vehicles in brazil to textiles and indonesia, being faced as new trade barriers and the global. so many believe china is exporting too much on importing to little. the country generally has a strong trade surface, which means that exports more than the imports with threat 2024. that surplus has

been increasing dramatically. exports have been rising fast. quite weak. domestic demand means imports have been stagnant all year. in june, china is trade surplus hit $99000000000.00 a monthly record. in this episode, we will look at what soaring chinese exports mean for countries seeking to build up their own manufacturing basis and emulate the success which has made china an economic superpower. and we ask if tariffs will simply become the new norman and try his relationship with the world's biggest emerging economies? welcome to business beyond over capacity. what exactly does it mean? the term is controversial because who decides when capacity has been reached? and why does that tend to primarily only focus on china? to answer these questions, i spoke with camille building while from the rhodium group,

an independent research organization. she's part of their china projects team and she studies the country's economic system and detail. the time itself has become a bit of the bus was in europe and another country is when it comes to china. but it's a very loosely defined concept. and there's no formal definition, which also means the metric use to describe this, or if it's up to the base, some conventions. and of course, china doesn't take much, but it's high. so the capacities fundamentally over capacity here is the idea of the china produces too much for its domestic consumption. and much more than normal market forces would allow. the core underlying issue is the crime, domestic and balance within china. is it going to be between demand and supply, which has massive speedo, the effects of the wealth. and to them very simply, what happens is that in recent shows, we've seen the very 1st increase in china's production capacity,

which was fueled by state support. and at the same time, the domestic demands has been very weak and couldn't have sold all that screen production capacity. however, kyle chan, a researcher and chinese industrial policy at princeton university, says the from china is perspective. this is not over capacity, but rather the country wanting to explore this fire in widely as possible and am shared by many economies. it would be surprising for any country, and you've seen this, you know, historically in the us, in much of europe. you'll be surprising if you have the ability to do so to not try to reach beyond, especially if your home market, you know, no matter how big it is, they'll be someone that as for the view of the chinese communist party, a good insight into its perspective, can be found on the international section of its official website. an opinion piece purportedly from a badging best commentator called voc size,

was published in may 2024 under the headline. accusation of china is over capacity . the global sales just doesn't bias. it argues the talk of over capacity is just another china threat theory trumped up by a handful of western media and politicians focusing in particular and chinese green energy exports, including electric cars. it says china is production capacity, creates better lives for the global. so however, it's framed. domestic chinese problems are central to the issue. it's economy has not recovered from the cold. 19 pandemic or the property crash, which recently hit the contract. the government is trying to revive growth, but demand remains very weak. ties running out of options to produce economy and the new way it has left is for boy exports. in fact, the thing we wouldn't be talking about over capacity is trenice because he was crying as fast as it,

the spanish government stays. that it is. but the upshot of china is changing trade patterns is that it has dramatically increased its overall stake in global of manufacturing. between 20192022. china has increased its share approval manufacturing exports by its 3.5 there for about 3.5 person page points. which is quite a known assuming for the country of the size of china, which accounts. so i bought the service of google manufacturing it's, it's really a loss. but this all appears to be coming out of potentially serious costs to beijing. the china remains by far the world's biggest export or was mass of annual export values approaching $3.00 trillion us dollars. but it faces major trade barriers from 2 of its biggest economic partners, the u. s. and the e u. particularly on electric cars that has led badging to seek to strength and trade relationships with

a whole range of developing economies from india to indonesia, mexico, to present vietnam to silent. but these economies to are starting to erect their own barriers. as booming chinese exports begin to put pressure on their own manufacturing sectors. brazil and turkey put levies in place on electric vehicles to prevent their domestic markets being overrun and partly to encourage chinese investment in building production plants locally. brazil has also placed tar ups on steel, on india, indonesia, thailand. and so the africa of poto, barriers and countering chinese exports across a whole range of sectors from steel to tech styles, to solar panels. it's easy to understand why they've taken such actions. when we look at some recent trade data, we took a selection of the biggest developing economies focusing on some of the global says countries we just mentioned. here's our china's trade surface with this selection of major emerging economies has developed over the last decade from 2014,

to 20. 19. there was little change. but since the pandemic ended, chinese trade surplus with the selected economies has widened dramatically. it's now almost doubled, but it was as recently as 2020 on one level. this is a story about developing economies seeking to protect their own jobs and local industries. from turbocharged chinese competition. we asked henry, go professor of law from singapore management university with a specialization and chinese trade to explain more in so many different countries. the are concerned with the influx of a chinese expos because china is much more competitive than these uh, countries in manufacturing. these products, especially below to middle and for consumer products, i mean, no country you can compare against china. chinese products are typically of

a bank or at least a comparable quality. uh, and much cheaper and uh, these uh would mean that the local firms cannot compete. but that's not the full story of china is economic relationship with these developing economies. collectively, they haven't really invest market shift. china. in fact, to some extent they've been using cheap chinese inputs to, to power their own manufacturing industries. and to make products that they've been exposed to the wells, especially in some sectors where they are currently developing that production capacity. for decades, emerging economies have benefited from cheap chinese imports, often to power their own manufacturing sectors. and that remains the case. it's especially true as in countries. um, so think of kids now for example, isn't very good the case when it's almost when to when it's involving

a push from china. and then, you know, i'm making products at home, but it's then re exposed to the world that we, you see that, that's and, and in many different countries really of india, mexico to key except for some experts say that the narrative of china been targeted with a wave of tariffs from developing economies is overblown. and then in many examples, it's a case of countries trying to protect specific sectors, was also trying to attract investment and high tech industries. so there have been some really prominent stories really promptly cases. so you have indonesia, i'm throwing out some very large tear of increases. but in that case, if you drill down a lot of that's about protecting their textile sector. for example, you have um brazil, which has a, a, a, a scheduled sort of ramp up in terrace on good, slightly electric vehicles. um, but you see that if you drill down as it appeared, approach to, um,

trying to attract chinese investment. and you have actually quite a bit now including uh, the id plan that will be um that's supposed to reach something like a $150000.00 vehicles pre pre years capacity. that's a key part of this story. the world's biggest developing economy, such as india, indonesia, brazil, and fayette now in many ways want to emulate china's economic success. but it's a difficult balancing act between fending off chinese competition, trying to attract investment from the country and avoiding, becoming too dependent on us to better understand the complexities of china is economic relationships. with the global says, i spoke with lina binocular, an associate professor, an international relations at wake forest university specializes in this topic. we've used the phrase global service quite a lot in this program, but it's not a turn that everyone agrees on. so i asked lena for her view out of a surface level once someone says global southwell, if we imagine this to be

a geographical category, literally have several questions about australia, about japan. are these in the global south? are these in the global north? but i think a better way to define the global sales would be to actually think about it as not a geographical concept. but it is a concept that historically just stores towards communities and policies and groups of people who have. 6 struggled with the issues of colonialism, issues of inequality is an injustice, has imposed by a global order, or, as for china's own relationship with the global says, there's considerable complexity, a nuance china play on 2 different identities. it is a power that's the frames itself as a member of the global self. so when it's actually talking in his diplomatic relations with members of the global south, it speaks as if it is part of the global south. and it brings up sort of this

shared history, shared past for china and several countries in the global south for basically struggling with colonialism, but have in similar past and histories around around the struggles. china also plays on its economic mice when cultivating these relationships. the 2nd identity of china players and it's one policy inside. it is the 2nd largest economy in the world. so it becomes a source of aspiration for several countries in the global south to see what china was able to achieve. in the last 30 and 40 years becomes really an attractive model and attractive example to follow and to us to, to, to, to kind of aspire to become as well. trade has been central when it's built in road initiative, a huge infrastructure investment drive was another way in which china sought to win hearts and minds and developing economies. however,

that appears to have run out of steam with many host countries, left, settled with death, leading to protests and discontent in kenya and sri lanka to name to recent examples for direct chinese outbound investment discharging to record levels signed that the country is increasingly choosing to invest in manufacturing operations abroad, particularly, and clean energy as part of its way of dealing with new tires. in many ways, this represents sort of a 2nd chance at winning over the support of the global south in a way that the b r i the don't run initiatives turn out to be, you know, perhaps at this next result. but it's not clear how sustan's this type of investment will be given china's domestic economic problems, the streams because 1st of all, the trend is going right much long to let's move this company is best for growth and create jobs of growth. when there is a huge unemployment program in china and search to replace everything and pros,

it's will just worse and that's but problem the the,

[000:00:00;00] the, the c w. this is everything else is available to them and it hasn't met up in some sense much as to what did you do before i came to jenna. she survived. oh, sure. it's thanks to music. he was the nazis favorite conductor. he