now we had to sign was incredibly like this is riding you with free information dw made for mind, the germany is government coalition collapsed. the day donald trump was announced winner of the us elections. now germans will have to decide who will rule the country in a snap election in february until then little else will get done. one of choice has become a lame duck chancellor. at a time when germany needs strong political leadership, more than never, the economy is struggling. society is divided. europe's heavy weight has come to a hold, including in foreign policy. that's especially better for ukraine. whether it's too big, a supporter of the us and germany are stuck in a power vacuum. it's war against russia continues to escalate. on to the point we

ask germany's downfall kind of new government turn things around the welcome to this weeks to the point in time. so yet again, it's good to have you with us. let's meet today's guests, which i like who's not is d w as chief political editor here in berlin. felix me is a jo economics editor at germany's in soup darcia title game. and melinda crane is a journalist moderator and political analyst specialized in the us. and of course, anyone who paid attention will have recognized melinda as a familiar face here on to the point of a long time host of to show it's so good to have you with us. now on the other side of this table, welcome home. well, crazy times here in germany, it's really a special in new particulars that you, asian. as a few years ago, jeremy was still

a beacon of stability and comic powers here in europe. now, pretty much every sector of this country is in crisis resale. i'd like to start with you. how did we get here? well, um, 1st of all, and that was a whole stuff is by russia against ukraine and that through the incoming governments which followed on glom ackles long time tonsils to ship at pretty much of balance issues, thomas the site and then that was declared and it was supposed to bring a different focus on public spending, and now we see a government that is broken up. the 1st long term 3 way coalition and proves to be an experiment that somebody didn't work out. that's the very short version of it. and it's as much drama as you probably gonna see in germany here on the political scene. and it comes at a very,

very crucial time with that ongoing role going into the 3rd year of the economy facing huge challenges. the auto industry doesn't cause some fee on sending anymore . and if you, there's a, there's a german same thing that if the german caught industry gets the sniffles, then the german economy is going to have a cold. and that's what we're heading into nuclear concept by the outgoing government. and it's periods now of uncertainty, despite the fact that germany is on paper and legally able to act. but we're not going to see any kind of big concept any road map out as this economic situation, but also out of the political challenges of the coming months. you mentioned many of the crucial aspects here felix, it is said that it cannot make policy was pretty much the main culprit for the

reason that this coalition ultimately collapsed. why was the government unable to find common ground here? well, let me emphasize 1st. jimmy is still the 3rd largest economy in the world, but as you, you're totally right. we, we in a deep crisis. and so one of the reasons is, or maybe not the reason, but one thing which has to be changed is, uh the uh, the government failed in not only this government, but also as a previous governs the field to invest enough. not only in, in fact, structural drawing these infrastructure as in a disastrous condition, but also in future technologies. and that's what's missing now. and i, i'm not sure if the recent government, what if it was fully clear how we germany is lacking behind in comparison to the us in comparison to a lot of east asian countries,

even in comparison to some european countries. and that this government has failed. no or has collapse now, it's also a, i think, a big political disaster because there are huge steps which has to be taken in the next few weeks because of a trunk got elected in the us. and this is, i'm afraid this is not going to happen. what do you think that was the main reason, the fact that they didn't read the necessity of these economic reforms? i think it was one of the big reason because uh, in germany we talked about the debt break, which is a huge a hurdle or even the future government is not an until we still are at hold onto the step break. and even the future government will not be able to to pick actions which, which i need it. and i'm afraid because if we have in the next uh, the coming election that does, that break cannot be changed just any more because it needs for this to be changed

. the, there will be a to you to the, to cert majority in the bonus, talking to the drum and parliament. and i'm a little bit afraid on not only a little bit, but i'm huge. the afraid that after the next election, there will be no 2 thirds majority in the with it within the democratic parties, but a f, d a, a right populous party in germany, and another, a populous part. you will, will have a, have enough, a seats in the apartment to locate all of this. yeah. you seem to share, i. yeah, i do, i actually just wanted to add that you described the long term problem, which was lack of crucial investment. and the, the role of the debt breaking out in the debt break is basically a cap that essentially prevent step of germany from doing deficit spending. but the shorter term problem was that for the past year, the german government has had a huge hole in its budget due to a supreme court decision that essentially prevented the government from employing

a kind of a trick in order to get adequate money to fund its budget, and that trick was to borrow money from a corona fund fund that had been set up for the effects of a pandemic and essentially transfer that into other budgetary areas. the supreme court put a stop to that. and since then, the government has been in crisis about essentially how to just fund it's, it's ongoing budget. and in fact, this government crisis came right before the budgetary debate in parliament. that's no convincing. that's uh, but the problem is germany now does it have a budget and that is absolutely crucial option slate for a government to run. it needs to be able to allocate spending. so that is an element of chaos that one could scarcely have imagined in a country like this one. and it shows how dire the inability of the call relation

was to agree upon compromises. there were essentially, uh, conflicting schools of thought about how to fund very crucial activities. and all of that has been the one of the other ones. the governments shut down though, because in germany and the government consolidated, the state can still take over. but the 15th of november, 2023 when that and that budget was blown out of the war. so by the constitutional quote, that's the, that was the beginning of the end of this coalition because, and the money in that, those 60000000000 that were missing, that was the glue that was holding the 3 way coalition together. and now they don't have funds to look into the future. and there was a lot of debate about the past, the, there's a lot of distrust over projects, not being able to be put into the be implemented. and, and all that sold, criticized as lacking the leadership to hold his whole co listen together. which has brought them just to the point where he now lock siegel for, see, to hold europe together as term comes to devour. they essentially didn't have

a plan b, germany is not only a political mass, we just turn it the economy is also struggling. the country isn't our recession empty order books, no growth fuel investments, job cuts. and now even factory closures, a drastic downward spiral. you have seen coming, so the engine of the german economy, the automobile industry has stall. vw is planning to close the entire plants and threatening mass layoffs for the longest time jobs that b, w were considered. absolutely. say people are feeling very insecure and dismissed. what's their future in question so no one knows what will happen by august eastern . yeah. if i talk to you as an example, as these are a drastic cutbacks and people are afraid they are worried about providing for their families. other big carmakers like out in bmw are also facing problems and numerous suppliers have filed for bankruptcy. empty lots instead of new factories. business investment in germany has also taken

a serious hit. the amount of direct for an investment fail by 12 percent last year . high energy costs, dilapidated infrastructure, and bureaucracy are detouring investors. the latest economic data confirms the german economy is still limping along. experts expect final figures for 2024 to show minimal growth. will germany slip into permanent economic decline? fix what needs to change in germany in order to avoid a full on economic prices. well, 1st of all, we need to invest in our infrastructure, which is in a terrible stadium. a 2nd. we have to invest in, in future technology, and it's not the combustion engine. this is not the future technology, but in we, if you wouldn't need a to, to technology s a c, my conductors as

a batteries in the whole digitalization and a set of rules. and for this, what's needed from the government side, we may need to get rid of all have a huge reform on that that break to in order to, to, to be able to take these actions. the question out of course is, who can bring about that? change me take a look at this point. pretty much every single established german political party can be partially blamed for the situation. we're in now. it's a yes, but the question is generally wanted to do something very dumb and keep talking about who's to blame or doesn't really want to keep moving into the future. and the problem was not that there weren't any concepts. the problem with this co listened was that it wasn't able to compromise and that there were competing concepts on the table and, and the one by who, by topic the trade minister was basically a 10 percent on every investment. uh no matter what it is. but then it sets

against that was the now x finance ministers concept which so huge tax breaks and that wasn't palatable with the greens or the social democrats. but it was no longer about content. it was about who really can so the most profile and everybody was clearly already in election gear in campaigning here. so and yes, if it is a concept in a kid direction, and that's also what i'm hearing from durham, an industry at germany can regain its strength. it's still the 3rd largest economy in the world. and it still has the manufacturing industry that is highly competitive in pods, particularly in, in machine building. and they're very popular around the world. but where all those future jobs going to come from and it would have been. and at the minimum, germany could have done something like a copy paste of of the i, r a,

the installation of reduction act, which has clear the tax breaks according to which industry is most future proof and most desirable also in terms of green energy. so that is something that these elections will bring about the impetus of but the, of, of actually having a clear concept. but then again, we don't know what the outcome of that election will be if, if, once again has to be a 3 way co listen. this will cost time, and that at the moment is actually the biggest problem that there is more months of uncertainty still to come, which is stopping consumers from spending money and investors from investing. and, and there's of course, another very big factor in that equation. that is the election of donald trump, linda experts, one of the next administration in the us will bring even more challenges to germany . what is to expect from that 2nd, trump presidency for the german? well, one of those challenges is the fact that in fact, donald trump,

during his election campaign and during his 1st term, has off instead of sites on germany. donald trump just hates a handle, a trade surplus. he wants the us to be the pre eminent export power. it is far from that. the us runs of very high trade deficit. and she looks at germany and sees the mirror image of that. he sees this, this trade surplus that germany has been running pretty much forever, and it makes him angry. and therefore, during his campaign he said in georgia, one of the swing states, he said that the german car companies export far too many cars to the us, the german car companies undermined x term, they will become american car companies. the irony is the companies produce 900000 cars in the u. s. last year. they already are thanks partly to the inflation reduction. but even before that, during his 1st term,

one of the 1st things that uncle and medical did was travel to the us with a bunch of german ceo's. and they tried to make donald trump understand that they were already producing cards in the us. and that those cars are even being exported . that's good for the us trade, but she somehow doesn't get it. and he has, as i said, sort of sites on germany. so certainly germany can expect. but basically all exporters to the us market can expect a blanket tear of, of 10 to 20 percent and renowned german economic institutes. have said that the damage from that for the drum, for german industry as a whole, will be between 127000000000000000 and 180000000000 euros over the next 4 years. that's a lot of money for an economy that's already struggling to purchase. biggest furnace china and the biggest uh its portner. uh with the yes. have the biggest trade deficit with but even this and i mean he wants implement terrace on chinese

products. uh 60 to 80 percent, but even also this has, will have a huge impact on germany. economy because ways all these over production and over all these goods china was producing, going when not in the, to the biggest economy, then they will try to fine holds all ways to come to europe and they will be cheap and they will be flooding the chinese and germany counter that was phenomenons with political or economic reform, was not at the moment. i mean, not with this government, i might, i still have hope in the, your commercial trade policy it thinks got in this situation. the trade policy is done by the your commission, but it's going to be very hard and a, and for this, i mean, what is it you commission that you need to be, have to have to veto it from all the big economies in europe. and if germany is not in it, or because it's not capable at the moment, then this is also going to create huge problem. huge problems that are not only

related to the economy, they're also related to safety. don't terms of victory and the us elections and the collapse of the german government are times that are becoming even more difficult and unpredictable for ukraine weapons and ammunition continue to be supplied from the us and europe. and in sufficient quantities, only one thing a certain at the moment, the war with russia is escalating and ukrainian troops are being pushed back further. with air raid sirens blaring throughout the country. fierce fighting on its eastern in southern france and russia preparing for a major attack. ukraine needs western aid more than ever. but germany is without a functioning government, due in part to disputes over the scope of aid for ukraine. for now, ukraine's president's the landscape cannot count on berlin, making major decisions about financial aid or arms deliveries. meanwhile, the us is caught in its own political back. you president elect donald trump has

announced he will quickly in the war and ukraine, but at who is expense. these questioning the need for nato saying the us might lead the alliance. how or whether the us will support ukraine in the future is completely unclear. and in europe, the much touted franco, german alliance is paralyzed. other leaders such as hungry is victoria, oregon are russia friendly populist, are setting the tone conflict and stalemate. they could benefit one person above all russian president vladimir putin. just how dangerous is this for ukraine? and your mission, the parts of the german political spectrum don't support for their weapons deliveries to ukraine, or at least not in the way that it's being done. now, stating that strong military support would not put an end or mean an end of the world. how likely is it that germany will continue to provide ukraine much needed

military aid? germany will continue to provide that aid if anything, to the very likely neutrons. the foolish mats from the conservative seed you see is you, is more and save up, sending more weapons. he came out in the past saying he would also be in favor of supplying the towers long range missile system, which is kind of the hallmark opponents see of what i saw. so he refuses to hand that over to ukraine, out of fear that it would provoke russia. and although he won't automatically give the green light for the system, if he becomes chance that we're getting different signals. now, because he too has an election, a campaign coming up, and it's true we're seeing in the polls that people are still in, in favor of supporting ukraine. the majority by becoming less and less of a keen on having those demons weapons deliveries continue at the current level. and this is an issue as this is actually the only issue would have sold the scoring in

the polls right now. going into an election campaign. and so these supplies will continue, but can germany provide the kind of support that the us has in the past and the very sort and honest answer is no way, because it's also no longer a question of money. it's a question of capacity to produce enough. i'm munition and weapons in time for ukraine to be able to defend itself and particular to push back russia to the point where at some point, potentially donald trump will try and knock heads together. whichever way he wants to fulfill his promise that he will and that, and we are now know that the republics will also have the control of the house of representatives into us, which means and on hindered donald trump, who has touted himself as the anti war president doing that, what do you expect from the handling of the ukraine war from this new administration, donald trump said he could end the ukraine. we're in 24 hours and he clearly

intends to try to compel both sides to go to the negotiating table. and apparently his idea is that he would threaten soleski to cut off uh, support uh military weapons, but also potentially uh uh, the information that this the us security services provide to you create if that were cut off and perhaps it so accidents that you on mosque was on that call with so let's do because 11 must provide star lake, which is the basis for the ukranian internet. so that's the one side. and then apparently he wants to threaten to put in that he would step up, arms deliveries if putting doesn't go to the table. but once they were at the table, what's going to happen? most likely ukraine would under come under stooge pressure to renounce. territory is already occupied by russia and also to renounce any membership in nato for the foreseeable future. the problem is we right now have the russians and by the way,

also israel in the middle east trying to establish facts on the ground quickly during the lame duck period. they have been double, they've talked, we have all sorts as a lame duck. but of course, joe bind in many ways is also a lame duck. and that is a problem because what happens now in ukraine will certainly affect the terms upon which any negotiations could be carried out. therefore, the fact that europe is not in the position to fill and it gap from the u. s. is problematic for ukraine. and we also know that this time is money and that the production of weaponry is impossible to fulfill in a short amount of time. or let's say that us does somehow stop delivering arms or reduce the arms deliveries to ukraine. um, how long would it take for europe to even be able to continue to provide support from an industrial perspective? well, that's a difficult question. it will definitely be the new board definitely will not keep

up until uh for, for this winter. for sure. the good news is a bind still in power until january and the money here for all the arms he, he promised to ukraine this at the moment of still deliver, we don't know what's happening after january, but you will, by no chances will begin. we'll be able to keep up. but we, of course we have to start because i mean, the conflict with russia will not stop a, with the ukranian. what look? so to me, i'll just say trump did say that she thinks, glad to be put in, has no intention whatsoever to go beyond the ukraine. but many, many here in europe disagree with that assessment. exactly. but no one has correctly predicted latimer pollutants behavior. in any case so far for the problem . so that's what we're trying to say. yeah. so this is, that's also a big problem. and beside that, do you see any type of diplomatic shift in the germany's stands on the ukraine war? apart from the economic aspect. i think that commitment stands that germany will

continues to support ukraine, but this really, really very fast going to become a question of feasibility. if the debt break remains in place and the german incoming term and government finds itself in a position where it's unable to secure move funds out of the budget without crossing into germany's of the social spending for instance. and that's the very question that or where, well, i've sold so that's why the code is and broke up all of this 2 sides of the story. and that he didn't want to cut down on social spending, which he sees as, as the key factor for cri, he's in here in germany and for continued are going to have that support to be able to help you crane. and so i don't expect a major farm policy shift. i do expect a lot more clarity through 1st selections. and i think that is what domini, unto europe needs most at this point in time. reading the german society, melinda,

um, as we come slowly come to an end, do you think germans are truly aware of how difficult the time ahead will be considering that the certainly will stay there. the international conflict will stay there and one of the most important allies is uncertain. i think that many germans are very demoralized at the moment during my discussions with people in the been in business, but also with citizens. i'm hearing a lot of self soul searching and frustration to the fact that this coalition exploded when it did. and the way it did is, is very disturbing for people. this is a country that likes to ability and they're not getting that right now from the politicians. many hope it will be gain some day. thank you so much to all 3 of you for this discussion and to you for watching. we'll definitely see you in our next show until then. remember that you can always watch our shows on youtube to search for d w news and look for the latest to the point. and so i guess till next time take care of the

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