living and working in this vibrant and welcoming countries with free of charge access to expert advice and excellent job opportunities starts in new jersey now on korea's for germany dot com the best of the building is live from the land negotiators in closer to a cease fire and level us lebanese and is really official, say they close to ceiling, a deal to hold more than the you're fighting between israel and hezbollah. israel's cabinet could approve the approved the agreement as soon as tuesday, also coming up thousands of supporters of practice done imprisoned. former prime minister in rome can defy a lock down the heading to the capital is level 5 to demand his release. the

i'm told me were like, well, welcome to the program. israel's ambassador to washington says a cx, 5 deal to and fighting with his ball and 11 on could be close. the run back to minutes in group began the attacking israel in october last year, following how maces' raid on southern israel, the fighting escalated into an all out war in september. with these ready ministry, conducting a massive campaign of ass strikes on lebanon as well as a ground incursion. now the parties appear to be on the verge of an agreement to end the conflict. i did no mention is riley abruptly. it hits its targets in southern bay roads is route, has intensified its campaign against has spotlight and race and weeks. i made an international coast for a seas file. the diplomatic efforts have been led by us envoy m. as

hawk steed, who visited both by route until the last week. the us broke a deal to end the fighting coals for an initial 60 day seats file. in the 1st stage, fighting would end and has spelled, i would move its fighters at the north of the latania river. israel, it would then withdraw its forces from southern lebanon on the 11 a saw me would move into the buffers. to prevent that, his spell over tons, along with an existing un peacekeeping force, negotiations would follow on the d, my cation between the 2 countries, known as the blue line. the deal is based on a un resolution from 2006, which both has spa and is around have violates it. under the new agreement, a us that committee would monitor the implementation of the ceasefire. the un resolution has spelled out, had long made

a cessation of violence and gone to the condition of a deal, but have since dropped the demand box. there had been other sticking points to prevent his spell out from re arming and killing more. is riley's, israel wants to freedom to take action in the future for administer, you don't star said the agreements hinged on enforcement that would keep his spotlight away from the border and dissolved in own of levin on according to media reports the us has given israel guarantees recognizing it's right to take military action against immune and threats from lebanon. its been, um ben telemundo is a senior fellow at the foundation for the defense of democracies, and joins us from london. good to have you on the program. ben, how now? how likely is it that we'll see the sci fi in the coming days? it's a pleasure to be with you. that's the $1000000.00 question right now. there's lots

of reports saying that the cabinet is really national. security cabinet will be competing as early as tuesday. so just within a few hours, to discuss this proposal in earnest, so it could be within the matter of hours, it could be within a matter of weeks. and some of those final speaking points about not just the text of the ceasefire, but the enforcement mechanism. and some of those security guarantees you had alluded to in the earlier package are not met or ironed out. i mean, some of those include, for example, israel still wanting to be able to strike southern 11 on how would that work with us is by as well. uh, one of the areas that i have been looking at is how it israel try to prevent the resupply. the rearming of lebanese has below either indirectly via iran, through syria, or directly via russia, via syria to lebanese as well. uh, this is likely something that is real does not want to allow to be a repeat us, which is that you post 2006 for scenario where there was

a ceasefire. then there was a un resolution and there was a lot of agreements. and there was an inability to enforce it. so coupled with some of those us security guarantees, freedom of military action meet against the run back targets in syria or beat against, you know, liberties has to pull up on liberties. territory proper is probably the only way i these really is will feel confident that they will not have. ready receipts of the post, 2006 situation, which is a slow steady crease and build up in military capability of again, temperance proxy, israel's nor. i mean, meanwhile, hezbollah maintain that it would fight for as long as israel carried out. it's when guys now what's changed? so i'm very glad you mentioned that because if there is any political accomplishment here through the use of military means by these really is against as bullet which be and firing it is well less than one day after the october 7 terrorist attack last year meeting on october 8th,

it is precisely what you mentioned, which is israel's ability to use military force to de link a ceasefire or a cessation of hostilities by 11. these has go up with the situation on the ground to israel, south in gauze, and with the war at with some us, as we know, has the, was the 1st of the multiple iran back boxes of the region to begin to widen the war, to try to find a way to be allowed to have runs proxy 11th, which is also a most the inability of hezbollah, some of the militias and iraq and syria, as well as that it was easy to him and to be able to prevent is really military success because that coupled with a steep escalation, we saw in late summer early fall by these really against lebanese has spell that prove that conventional military capability carry the day. and this coupled with a score, some of the decapitation strikes and precision guided munitions stockpile. the positions that we saw in september and october by these released on lebanese territory also led to in my view, this political change and as well as position. how would

a ceasefire serve you ronda interests? this is also a critical question because these monica public of ron often plays the long game here. and it is, you know, rumored that everyone may even be able to benefit from a cease fire that some of these really is gonna have to keep their eyes on. not in the short term with the confliction and with the lebanese armed forces moving into the buffer. zone, not there, but potentially with how to avalon can use the post war scenario, the chaos that exist in any country. whenever there is the succession of military conflicts, to be able to cement it's gains to be able to resupply politically, militarily and economically. lebanese has bullet and go into the rubble if you will, and rebuild, you know. ready parts of it's most important, the crown jewel, the proxy 11, he's has the love again in the live on. so this is a long term is really concern by trying to find ways to prevent this resupply and to one. unfortunately,

the past has been able to capitalize on precisely these periods. and what about the us we're seeing, of course, the, the new administration coming in this transition period. how is that playing on what's happening in terms of these talks as well? we're in a very critical time right now. there's lots of moving pieces for the body administrations, a transition period in fact. so i might even say more active or more meaningful pieces on the chessboard than we saw in the past few months, even prior to the election. and there's a couple of different theaters here. one, certainly there is ukraine, russia, where they authorize the use of attack and ballistic missiles to be able to strike on russian territory and to there's diplomatic action against these local public, with european partners that the international atomic energy agency. and 3, precisely where you mentioned i'd, there is the cobbling together of these forces for some kind of a ceasefire agreement. and together some of this stuff can help but leverage back on the us side of the ledger of january 2025. but that leverage will no longer be

in the hands of the democratic administration that will be transitioned over into the hands of the donald trump. administration was likely to see the lens through not just the post october sent into the lease, but also to see the region through the lens of how to counter it. run through the auspices that are resurrected, maximum pressure kenzie ben, ben todd of know from the foundation for defense of democracies. thank you for your time and insights. thank you. let's take a look now at some other stories making headlines around the world. are us judge has granted a request by president elect donald trump's legal team to drop the election into variance charges against him. this ends the case alleging that trump conspired to overturn the 2020 election results. the decision relates to a long standing us justice department policy of not prosecuting sitting presidents

to jimmy's a foreign minister says sabotage con to be ruled out as the cause of a crash of a d h l. cargo plane. in lithuania, one crew member was killed and 3 others injured. the plane went down and villainous lithuania is investigating whether russia had a hand in it's due to moscow's suspected involvement in previous cases of sabotage . impact is down, one police officer has been killed in clashes with supporters of the countries jailed form, a prime minister in front of con, thousands of demonstrators have been trying to reach the capital is lama by it. after court ruled, protest by his political policy are unlawful. they have defied a lock down. and widespread arrests to call for his release. stories have lots of major access roads in suspended, mobile, and internet services. let's speak now to michael google man, who is the deputy director of the age of program at the wilson center in washington

dc. you welcome to the program. what do you make of the situation and in pakistan of this determination, bi icons, but put supporters to reach is lama bad. it was very significant in ron khan's political career has been built around this idea of contestation and protest around the issues of corruption and repression. and the white now he's been in jail for more than a year now, and there been a number of protests, of his supporters since he was put in jail. but because statement operating under such repressive conditions, it's been increasingly difficult for them to mobilize. however, in this case, it does appear that we are seeing a pretty significant numbers of thousands of people, perhaps tens of thousands of people trying to make their way into as long above. and i think that really reflects just how powerful of figuring brawn con is if he's able to, with one call from his jail. so get so many of his impassioned base out,

they're willing to risk arrest and worse to, to rally for his freedom from, for his release, from, from jail. and we've seen the large scale response from the government. what does this suggest about the policy perceived threats from khan and his supporters as well? i mean, it's clear that the government and i buy that, i really mean the civilian and the military leadership really do not want con to be relevant. they want him to stay in jail, they don't want the country focused on him. they don't want the world focused on him. so in that sense, i think that they will have a strong interest in trying to crush this this process. hopefully it does not come to that. i think that there is a hope that if you have a large enough number of protesters make it to as blah, blah, blah, and are willing to stay in place that, that would pressure or should i say, force the government into negotiations with the protesters resulting in some type

of resolution to this crisis. however, we have seen the government and the military take a very hard line against con and has many supporters over the last year, plus releasing, ever since con, uh, was voted out of power and a parliamentary, no confidence. so in 2022, it's been a very maximum list, muscular position that the government is taking. and that's because of the confrontation between the government and military and cotton. their supporters has been especially acute and especially bitter. yeah, so just going to follow up on that, where do the powers, the authorities look to be leaving? because obviously i would probably expect some kind of crack down, but these are numbers they can't ignore. so where do you see this headed? i mean, the problem is that both sides, the governments and the, the opposition are taking very max and lowest uncompromising positions that have indicated they're not willing to make any concessions. and yet they should,

you know, the, the opposition has made demands that i can't imagine the state being willing to give into, you know, the opposition concept board is one con, to be free from jail. they want the government to resign. that's not going to happen. they also want a set of controversial new constitutional amendments or the 26 constitutional amendment to be repeal this has something to curtail the power of curt sales, the power of the, of the judiciary. i think that is perhaps one area where we could see some give possibly from the state that might be willing they may be willing to, to suspend that indicates where they feel under significant loves the pressure. but again, i emphasize that no one wants to make any concessions on either side. and that suggests that this confrontation could remain in place and could well get worse before things start to ease my goal. cuz the deputy director of the asia program at wilson center. thank you for speaking to us. thank you and thank you for being with us on this news. melissa,

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