some expert advice and excellent job opportunities starts in new jersey now on korea's for germany dot com the and this is dw news life from berlin. donald trump, the signal is a massive shift in us trade policy. upon his return to the white house, higher imports higher sound goods from mexico in canada, and an even bigger one on those from china. beijing hits back saying there are no winners in trade for us. also coming up after increased strikes on bay ridge, southern suburbs, us lebanese and is right, the official said they're close to seating a deal to hold fighting between israel and his phone on several tenants officers are killed in pakistan as a clashes with supporters of imprison former prime minister in mont con, intensify,

husbands. the people are marching to the center of his i'm about to demand his release, the on top of holding the as welcome to the program. us president elect donald trump has and i just plans to impose 25 percent terrace. on oil imports from canada and mexico, when he returns to office in january, trump blamed the neighboring countries for not doing more to prevent the flow of migrants and drugs into the u. s. he also urged china to impose the death penalty for drug smugglers threatening to have chinese goods with an additional 10 percent . that's despite the us government data showing most illegal drugs are smuggled in by americans at legal border crossings. trump campaigned on using heavy tarps to boost us industries, but economists warn consumers would end up paying the price use. so what's the real

world impact of these measures? i put the question to katia smoker who is head of the center for geo politics, geo economics and technology at the german council on foreign relations as well. we have to see whether he will actually implement the tears. so we know he's a tear of preston and he wants to regulate all policies into all problems that we have through terrace. and the 1st thing is to announce them. and then he will wait and see whether canada and mexico would react. and maybe also something in the areas of migration or drugs that you just mentioned. if he actually imposes these tabs against canada and mexico. and on top of that, against china, we would see a lot of retaliation because countries would not be willing to accept these kind of ego tabs. and then we will enter a trade for tell us what's the real world impact of these measures? well, we are into connected economy,

we do not trade just products from one country to another, but we have global value chains and we have very intending trade connections. so once you impose its hair of on imports from a certain country, you would basically ruin existing value change. and this is especially oh, it's true for mexico and canada because a lot of intermediary products come to the united states. so you mentioned you will have higher prices for consumers, which is true, but you would also deeply hurt the us industry because they need these products coming from mexico and canada. so you want to see less gdp growth in united states . but in addition, this will also heard other countries on a global scale, especially if you're also invite china or ex tariffs on china. so what people see is destined to, to hit on g d p and our global trade. so considering what you're saying there, who then holds the power in these traits stand or is it the united states in

the united states is one of the largest input in countries that have a huge market. so a lot of countries, um for example, german, you have us as the largest trading partners. so if the west erases terrace, that's a view problem. i mean the into connected says other countries retaliate the be heard as well. but we do need us as an economic and trading partners. so if the race terrace, this would have huge implications. okay, well there's a lot of talk about tyrus being a political move rather than any can an economic one that you've talked about and, you know, implications of this. and i'm what, what could happen afterwards are these, and i was when spend more about sending a message to voters than actually solving real trade issues. well, they will not change or change any problems that there are. so if he actually ones these terms, so countries will change their policies,

we will see whether it's something happens on migration or drugs. i mean, you just mentioned that it's the lowest number that we see right now and that the situation has improved. but when you look at, you cannot make problems like trait balance deficits that he's actually looking at these traffic cameras, but not changed, nothing. right now. china is often being described as not having the same leverage as the us. and when it comes to tyra's book is this also as well and an opportunity for china as well as well. they have an interconnected global trade and they're dependent on the us market. so if united states raises candice against china, and i have to say that again, and that's against global trade roles. whenever he raised these terms against canada or mexico, they're part of the trade agreement that's against trade. last, if you just raises tears against china, that's also against truthful. i know has a good chance to retaliate and, and,

and increase terrace themselves against us. and us as the dependent on the trade with china. so they will be hurt as well. once for china raises the stakes. all right, we leave it there. claudio smoker on the german council on foreign relations. thanks for joining us today. on d. w. of course trade is not the only issue trump has with china. let's take a wider look now. i'll blocked from the 2nd term could mean for us china relations and security more broadly. nobody's chief international editor richard walker reports donald trump is back and she's promising a return to an american 1st foreign policy. and that means taking on china. he's chosen to hoops with a big jump, sundays. marco rubio for 6th street state. and mike wolfe's is national security advisor. both see china as the historic threat to us power. so what can we expect? well, let's take a look at the 2 biggest issues. the military situation and the prospect of

a trade military fest, cj and ping is now well into his 2nd decade in power. china is getting stronger and more aggressive in the south china sea. it's coast guards, direst vessel from the philippines, and it's being threatening taiwan with air and navy trans. either of these flash points could start a war. the drags in the us. there is a risk and a growing risk of a use of force by china, either in the south privacy or in the taiwan strait. we know front of the us intelligence community that senior tech has told his military that it must have the capabilities to type type one by force in 2027. trump does not want that to happen while he's in charge. he has said time and again that he's going to prevent scores from happening and that was wouldn't happen under his watch he's. that's

where he criticized joe biden. i think that resonated with the american public. so the us military will need to did tough. she, tim, paying for making moves on taiwan or the philippines and help us has a problem. a really big problem. to explain that, let's take a look at a map on china is east coast. there's a little island, just off shanghai. this is where you find that young man shipyard, which is a jewel use civilian and military sites. it recently launched, china is us to, at cross carriers. so what's the problem for the us? well, this single shipyard has more capacity than all of the shipyards in the united states put together. that's according to the csr. yes. think tank here in washington. and of course, jenna is not. china is only shipyard. the csr, yes, reference is a leak from the u. s navy briefing saying that china is over roll ship,

building capacity is 230 times greater than americans. yes, you heard that right. $230.00 times the west can build 100000 tons of ships, naval and civilian every year. china can build 23000000 us may have the edge in terms of quality in some areas. but on that front too, there's little doubt that china can catch up. this is now trump problem, and he won't be able to fix it on his own. you know, it's a very, very serious problem and united states in order to get this right is going to have to also rely on japanese and korean allies who are ahead in ship building it's, it's going to be multi off alliance effort to get to get allied ship building up to anywhere close to our china is okay. hold that thought for

a moment. let's move on to that other big issue. trace trump made imposing terrace on chinese imports cents a piece of this election campaign, tariffs, downstairs. so, you did this before unleashing a war of what he saw as unfair trade with china, that he never got to finish. this time there's a danger that he'll have to record with coming from china that from your, from also to last with european leaders over trade in his 1st term. and he's threatening to hit them with terrorist again. the risk here we said from could start trade was with china and europe at the same time and that combination could back fine. it would open the door for badging to further divide the united states and europe. this could end up in a situation where your p in the country seek to benefit from greater trade with

china. ok, let's pull the pieces together. and on both the military and terrace from could use some help from allies. as we're catching up with china is maybe could be impulsive that says korea and japan and taking on china of a trade would be much easier with europe on so. so can from the go from america 1st to america plus friends that could be a stretch for a man who's been such a skeptic of alliances for so long will soon find out whether with challenges this big. he decides there are deals to be done. this time around was richard walker. there training topics now and israel's ambassador to washington says a ceasefire. deal 2 and fighting with his bullet and 11 on could be close. the run back to me looking group began launching rockets. it is route in october last year, following a mazda is terror attack on southern lebanon on southern israel. excuse me. there has been heavy fire in a route this morning. these images just in show explosions in the south of the city

. the fighting escalated into full war in september with the is randy military conducting a massive campaign of air strikes on lab and on as well as a grinding person at the parties appear to be on the verge of an agreement to end the conflict. the mention is riley abruptly. it hits its targets in southern bay roads is route, has intensified its campaign against has spotlight. in recent weeks i made an international coast for seas file. the diplomatic efforts have been led by us envoy m. as hawk steed who visited both a route until the last week, the us broke a deal to end the fighting coals for an initial 60 day seats 5. in the 1st stage fighting would end and has spell. i would move its fight as an arms north of the latania river israel,

but then withdrew its forces from southern lebanon on the 11 he saw me would move into the buffers. to prevent that, his spell are returns along with an existing un peacekeeping force. negotiations would follow on the demo cation between the 2 countries known as the blue line. the deal is based on a un resolution from 2006, which both has spa and is around have violates it. under the new agreement, a us that committee would monitor the implementation of the ceasefire. the un resolution has spelled out, had long made a cessation of violence and casa the condition of a deal. but have since dropped the demand box. there had been other sticking points to prevent his spell out from re arming and killing more. is riley's israel once to freedom to take action in the future for administer? you don't, sar, said the agreements hinged on enforcement that would keep his spell away from the

border and dissolved in own of lebanon. according to media reports, the us has given israel guarantees recognizing it's right to take military action against immune and threats from living on. earlier i spoke to my crime robin who is an assistant professor of history at the american university of state route. and i asked him about the likelihood of a ceasefire and to as well my, the idea of the ceasefire will actually materialize is actually a fact. however, one has to read between the lines. the issue is here, we're not looking at something very much similar to a 17 or one which was implemented in the summer of to song a 6. but rather we are looking at to kind of a monitored ceasefire. one in which this varies have the upper hand and more importantly, so there is a side deed between the americans and the is varies with trend. there's all this a cease fire or piece deed a few times because at the end of the day is various have been given the green

light, but monday comes to strike inside them on at any moment when they see the concise as that which goes. which brings us back to the idea who will lead the reconstruction process. it's not really a matter of issues for what's coming up in on the people of 11 on transition into a new era. and this is what i'm a bit skeptical that this is possible that this particular moment in time. so israel wants to see, has bought this armed and away from the border. and we've so far heard little from has paula leaders. and what do you believe that this is something that has bollywood accept or one has to remind themselves there's nothing called his bottle on his own ones as well as sports and person of the grocery. good. and this is not an accusation. this is a statement, but the last class on the so i'm just, i believe now that the it on wishes to actually be on the good side of uh,

president trump. and in fact, i think that's his bullet has no way out of this other than the seas for it still to leadership have been, have been assassinated. it's military infrastructure, have been destroyed. and in this particular moment in time, there's a problem. the be nice to understand it is and these would love this arm because below those really don't want to potentially threat on the border. and this is why they only cared about the size of the the darn it area. so anyway, yes is the law they want to piece, they want to cease fire and more importantly, they want to use the workers which are to stop funding to dominate 11 on the rather than destroy it is very as a thing. so let's just get one thing clear. so because before how sudden those were all that was killed by, in his rainy air strike his ball as that there would be no light up in fighting before cease fire in guys is achieved. so why do you think that's changed now? a particularly because all the numbers have changed. one more, very,

very important thing here sir, is the plaza is no longer there to support it. and more importantly, i think that by getting muscle in his talk leadership, they have forced to hand off as well. i truly believe with most of the did not want to go into the full scale war. how are those rarely used the opportunity of october 7th and they were seeing what's happening to neutralize, as well as threat saw some of the lead time. so here, the so called negative that they have connected the front, so to speak, have been shattered by what happened on the ground. and basically the fact that we have over a 1000000 and the house of misplaced shot citizens, we need to go back home. and this is really where we have to ask the question, going to pay the money and who are lead dirty construction process. as it stands, we have no indication that the is varies, will allow the return of these people because many of these, starting to the last time i talked to more than 25 villages has been raised to the ground, including this infrastructure. how will

a potential cease fire deal at influence the war in gaza? because no insurance whatsoever because at the end of the day, i don't believe that actually cares about the civilians both in the us and then level it's might have that kind of thing. i get to implication and actually empowering nothing, you know, who has a hawkish negative. but it won't have any practical implications because most of these areas, as well as, and i mean is, are looking towards january 20th of january when trump was take office and we are heading towards a new, at a and in the region. however, this new hurdle does not appear to transfer it well for the people who are going to displace butte and the order level. all right, we're gonna have to leave it there at macro and rub up with the american university of a re, thanks for your analysis. this morning, you can take a look and add some other stories,

making headlines around the world. the governor of egypt, red c regions, says 13 people are still missing after a tourist ship capsized on monday, the governor visited the site where a search and rescue operation is still ongoing. to meet some of the survivors, 44 people were on board. the opposite most of the foreign nations indonesia is national disaster agency says at least 20 people have now been confirmed, dead and heavy floating on land slides for districts across northern sumatra have been piloted by heavy rain causing the flooding tardy. say the desktop could rise further in hardest case cairo district. to back us on our supporters of child, former prime minister in runtime, have broken through barriers setup to prevent them from entering the capital. as i'm about, protesters ignored the threats of gunfire from parties to march from the city. there be heavy clashes on the streets with several people confirmed dead husband's . a fine supporters are demanding sounds released from prison. parties placed

shipping containers around was not about in an attempt to prevent the protesters from entry. well, earlier i spoke with a journalist, i have not, i'm here in is i'm about and i asked them about the situation in the capital that will be at most sphere that is in dense and the city of hybrids. that'll the mean of trees and the, the, at the hospital the, it is completely filled with the other guys because data being dense collections with between the protestors and police since the morning. and focus dose is then huge numbers. get pushing, peace, back and back. and so far now the obese just think, you know, meters away from the find the main. so they're entering closer and closer. and there's a place for the job which is like near the finally mean 10 in the police at the of, for the biggest medicaid. so now the showed on where to take this data and maybe a couple of ours at best, but of the situation is really in dense and people into some, but they are really what agent they want the government and designed and him

through this process. and the solution for this problem. yeah, there yet tense in d. m. and let's just reminder viewers. of course, the former prime minister in runtime has been in jail for over a year and, and his party, you mentioned there, the p t i, that's his party. why are these protests taking place now? so as you mentioned, that he has been in prison for like more than 15 months. and the most of the cases against him is support for sale to pull their degree multi region because he is being acquitted in most of use cases. but still government has a book, they mean like more than 100 cases. for instance, to be a like yesterday, a police man was killed in protest and i'm not on his the book if that is as well. so i suppose we need the only way to get him out of the prison is by forcing government and these protest and that's why they have had and they have said, entropy simon. time again, but this time they are not keeping back unless honda why is time?

well, what is the se accused of when he was accused. busy but that option abuse of all but misappropriating the steed gifts and then did a lot of cases including inciting, is what goes to what that government install nations. but most of these cases, as like basic history of focused on are considered, which is not on the bi supporters, but also by the independent drugs and was, and commentators. so the government tends to keep him in present as long as they can. and the supporters, they just want to get him out of the prison and to explain all it is to become a board on the streets. we've been seeing actually images from pakistan there of those protests. it looks at rather intense as you mentioned before. and so how long con, pakistan, civilian and military establishment ignore the demands of a more on cons? supporters as well, that's the $1000000.00 question. i think the people because nobody wants the

government and has to deal with this issue as soon as they can. and yes, to find a peaceful resolution. and the situation is not easy, but even he can only can he because the notice now about his being computer, he goes for the survey navarro and we don't know how long enough and there is already short video fuse in all 50 cell. but the gen the capital and i think is a huge end is getting dense and even if the student continued like that for like 2 more days, i think, you know, you see this is the shortage of this really is. so this situation is not usable, and that's why the people, the citizens this from you'd be mindful of the game government to find any we get into this problem. yeah, sounds certainly very worrying for those of you in the city journalists of non, i'm here in islam of our thanks for joining us on data review today. thank you. a major mass rape trial in france. moved into a new phase. prosecutors are lang at the verdicts they one for the 51 man accused

of raping a woman while she was drug by her husband and rendered unconscious. the case of she's out of political has sent shock waves across france and beyond. verdicts and sentencing are expected by december 20th to that a petticoat arrived at the court house and avignon to public applause. of the 3 months of hearings. the trial of the dozens of men accused of participating in a mass right over 10 year period is now coming to an end. prosecute has begun by focusing on the pallet goes husband some 50 years, dominique, that cooling, so the maxim jail sentence of 20 years for him. he admitted to mixing sedatives in to have food in order to the right path. he would then invite of a man who'd found online to do the same while she was still unconscious. just now,

pel occurs. cases gripped france and what the issue of gender by silence to the full, she waved have liked to add an empty and insisted the trial beheld in public service to show you the man involved. that decision lead to huge interest in the case. and it stops and nationwide and international conversation. and right consent, i'm so close chemical submission, a deal made have a tamika. they go into conversation loads of music examples. i hear them every day that i show this is an opportunity to think about race culture at the house of which is pulling at the old women and security and sitting in the streets and town homes and no beds at work. everywhere. security for women do not send, you'll think they've gone if i'm doing a visit to a women's health clinic in paris to mock international days. the elimination of

violence against women, frances prime minister praised and is petticoats incredible coverage. he also announced a series of government measures to come about violence against women. the prime minister said the trial not to turning point. the fight against violence against women requires the mobilization of the whole of society. it's a social issue. it's a just unnecessary fight. necessary to this trial, i'm convinced the marks of before and after a moment in this fight those 2 french noah contains no requirements. the sex must involve consent, prosecutors, ms. cruz, the perpetrators intent to write using violence. corrosion, select a surprise. the petticoat case has led to close across funds for the low to be rewritten to include consent. that's all for now. our science show tomorrow today

is next. feel gale will be here from the top of often next there on top of all. yes, for me and the team here in berlin. thanks roger. take care. i don't see you very soon. the

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