fall, dave, as high as possible just such madame trace amount, whereas the latter proved in his town. dig a new miracle weapon against a crane moscow's hypersonic. miss sile is quote unquote invincible, and its use as a response to the far reaching attacks from the crate. oh, dangerous, are the slightest developments? are we reaching the level of escalation? many had feared they would miss. all attack on the ukrainian city of to meet pro is a message to the west weapon has arranged several 1000 kilometers and could also be equipped with nuclear warheads. nato is on high alert of us, france and great britain. first allowed ukraine to shoot deep into russian territory. germany's own f sides as so far not followed suit on ukrainian soil and russian troops are advancing very quickly as north korean soldiers are also

deployed to support them. on to the point we ask rushes new strategy. the new crate away is 2 things. war going cold? the welcome to this week's to the point, i'm probably going to get us. it's good to have you with us. let's meet today's guests. good stuff. the dresser is an expert in eastern europe, security policy and military strategies at the national defense academy. in vienna, vladimir is the pump, is my w co worker, a reporter and editor with the w's russian service. and jessica berlin is a senior fellow with the transatlantic defense and security program at the center for european policy analysis. all of you are very welcome. thank you. for being with us, that's good stuff. i'd like to start with you that are put in says the use of this

new hypersonic miss. so it was just the response to western countries allowing the use of their own missiles against russian territory. is this latest escalation on europe, and if so, is russia's response appropriate? while it was a sing a little bit on like what the west is doing, um, but we also have to keep it in perspective. uh it is a one of shots. um, a rush of faces constrains if it wants to escalate the wall further, especially into the nuclear field. there is a strong opinion of china and india them sort of the biggest becker's and supporters of russia on, on the field of there's nature, the terrans of russia. at the time of their wedding, the will in ukraine, is using its conventional military capabilities on ukraine and cannot use them either to signal or control escalation. all kinds actually russia, aside from blustering and aside from bowman, you train twice to avoid escalation with anybody else bought above the situation in

your train because it come finish and yeah on now one has to say that the sort of conventional delivery by actually also to capable of weapon systems like can show like how 11, and all the other conventional supervisor systems is far more deadly on a daily basis. then then these shots, and yet we see that rhetoric coming from russia, that nato is escalating the war of letting me, how do you read pollutants assessment that since you paint can only use these technologies with the use of european satellite technologies, european nato countries are now directly involved in the war. but the question during the conference is older as a global, so it's not original conflict on another agent. what between dressings that are great. and so i can global global events. and the signal of this messiah will start, as in the most domestic prefers as well because the mystic knew it actually has a quite a problem with the economy this evening. or, oh boy, rollers and demolition in the last these external extremely level. so it's

a service to domestic audience as well. so the capable to test new weapons in your right direction has enough other rockets and sales, which is which is able to show the input your input into your crate. what exactly would you say is put into a purpose when you're to talk about the domestic importance of that message? is it to calm down the population or maybe resistance and the conditional need to calm down them. but they need to suspend some signal for the domestic audience that we are able to escalate this whole thing to the quite new level to, to, to make the next step of the escalation to answer appropriate property due to the injures of us and french and bridges marseilles, which are being fired from the pregnancy, sorry to the last name to the corsica region. interest like cigna, i think the best to bring it on. bring it on is certainly one of the many worrying

perspectives that we see here. uh jessica, despite many was trying to downplay the many fears we see at least here in the western nations. some are talking about a new and more dangerous face of this world. what's your take? this is certainly a critical phase in the war because ukraine has been pushed to their limits in terms of hardware capacity and man power. the drip feed to little to a support that they've received from the west over the past 1000 plus of days has been enough to keep them alive and in the fight, but not enough for them to, to score decisive victories. and to make further significant advances. since the 2020 to counter offensive, and letting me put you knows this and his playing for time. he sees that with every renewed threats of a newer coal weapon or what, what may be, i should nuclear,

sable rattle of saber rattling, is effective in western capitals. and that has been enough to slow and deter western support for ukraine in a way that has allowed russia to entrench themselves along a 1000 kilometer front to boost their production as well us to boost their recruitment and deployment of manpower. they know that they have time on their side . and so this is why this winter, especially leading into january when of course, there will be a change of personnel in the white house where both sides will need to push as hard as they can to have the most optimal negotiating position. when the trump administration begins, those threats against the west seem to be effective. russia is the point, and you miss island, it's war against a crane and it's more than just a typical military attack. the weapon, as we mentioned, is suppose to also send

a message. the question is, how dangerous is it for the west? the sky above ukrainian city of the new pro, russia is testing its new weapon, reportedly a ballistic missile called, or russian dick, which translates to hazel, not tree. creating claims, the miss silas unique worldwide, capable of firing multiple warheads, single tenuously, and reaching distances of up to 5500 kilometers. it can also be equipped with nuclear weapons. currently, this is putin's response, excluding nuclear warheads. however, this situation may change if you crane loan to storm shadow and attack comes messiah is that russian territory. again. the rest of the site is currently being tested in combat conditions in response to the aggressive actions of nato countries towards russia. the decision regarding the further deployment of medium range and shorter range massage will depend on the actions of the united states and its

allies. key if this is proof, the coaching has no interest in peace. is not today a crazy night about his once again revealed his true colors and how much he despises, dignity, freedom, and human life. and how much you see is it movie that i can put into new miss. so bluff for one to weapon. international leaders are certainly making a big deal out of this new messiah. oh jessica, what do we know about it? and the capacity it has to destroy the targets far away from ukraine. well, the short answer is to the question from that segment. it's a bluff, it's bluster, even. this may be a new weapon, but it's not a new capacity rusher has mid range and even intercontinental ballistic missiles. so this is not bringing a new capacity into the war. it may be

a new weapon system. it may have been used for the 1st time, but it's not a new ability or capability on the side of the russian military. so the framing of dismissal as a window, vasa or a miracle weapon, is simply inaccurate. and, and this is actually the real target of the use of this weapon to spread fear, to make people talk about it to make russia look scary. and to remind the world and above all the west that if russia wanted to, they could drop nuclear bombs on ukraine. and this threat has been very effective for over a 1000 days to deter western capitals from from army ukraine sufficiently. and so what we're seeing here is simply a recycling of an old threat, but using a new tool to, to remind to the west. it's also important to point out the symbolism of using this

a specific type of mid range rocket back in 2018. donald trump withdrew from a uh, arms control treaty governing the developments and use of mid range most files from russia, because russia was working on the research of numerous files despite the treaty. so trump withdrew from the treaty and for vladimir, put in to use this weapon for the 1st time. right after trump got re elected is also sending a signal to trumpet sort of a symbolic messaging to washington to the incoming administration. i, i remember playing you guys 4 years ago and i will keep playing you and doing what i want when you come back into the white house. all right, but good stuff. if this is all an old clay book, if you will, why do you think western leaders are reacting to that? so, effectively, if you will, and from the perspective of russia, well as being reckoning effectively to this kind of implementation from day one

will and, and that's why putting his playing because he knows that these kind of few books no lessons learned. and this in a 1000 days of war then actually we have this learned a lot of lessons during the cold war this, this me so basically is the same trick like the d, r as the 10 pioneer the, the intermediate range, me saw the cost, the, the double trick decision in, in, in nature, in the late seventy's, i bought a bought people also this used to living in these kind of situation of consequence turns that they, they are incapable of dealing with that population as well. you mean uh well the, the for the population old me size is a big and scary, but this is why you have politicians on politicians need to explain to their population. what is going on, what is not going on and handle this, um, uh, a bike. if you remember a schmidt's a speeches in times of crisis, especially for example,

the back down the r f terrell. or you kind of calmly walk through the population through very 10 situations in his transfer. you like like for example, the, the more visual affection, everything else. this is what these will lead to. it's all actually paid for. uh, unfortunately, uh, leaders today think that the only thing that have to decide upon is the d. you substitute for renewable energy use or, or, or by that you should face all of a conventional car simulates out there. there are more dramatic decisions and topics to decide. yeah, just just for clarification, we were talking about the entire incidence that happened in germany. and then here we have to take time into consideration. this comes at a time where rush or to seeing heavy losses in the front, at least from what we're hearing here, about 80022900 casualties per day. according to some reports. how big do you think is the pressure to perform from the side of rush at this very moment?

i would go step back to the definition of bluff. you have a 7 nuclear power if the war in europe against the neighbor and country of ukraine, but in brothers since against the rest of the democratic war. and this time point, i'm this nuclear power lounge and the messiah into the neighbor country intern contingent on this, i'll shoot me an orange new weapon as your site at the point, which is the most pers facility the quite important decision from the, from the best and the rest of the community to allow them to create in the use the long range south on the russian. so. so roger, acting, so this would be the messiah. and you called at the bluff. i mean, it's not the bluff. it's everything, but it's not a bluff. it's a very strong signal to the best on society that russia is willing to react

this way. but then we have a very weird disagreement between then it's quite serious between you to a bluff or not a bluff. what can we conclude? well, what exactly are the russians trying to communicate? they're trying to scare our politicians and our routing public to not support ukraine more. why? because if we do, russia will lose. and that would be a catastrophe for the port in the regime. and he knows that he needs to deliver the russian people. but if not, prosperity, then at least pride and the sense that we are strong, we are powerful. we are respected and feared he needs to legitimize his rule with victory or the perception of victory. so this kind of signaling, it's not pointless, it certainly has a point, but this is not at all. i'm an indication that, oh, if you do that again,

if attack them, so i hit another target on russian soil. we're going to a new piccadilly circus. that's the kind of fear he's trying to spread. and that is something he is not going to do because put in for all of a rush with military capacity cannot win this war alone. he needs the support of china. absolutely, and china has been very clear. both on and off camera with the russians and with the west that they do not have an interest in a nuclear conflict. they certainly have an interest in russian victory, but not in the outbreak of nuclear war. and russia knows this very well that without chinese support, they're dead in the water. they also know that if they cross the nuclear line, this would be this thing that would finally wake up, even the most hesitant and fearful western leaders to act decisively. so this is the only threats he has left that can truly strike terror into people's hearts,

whether they were born before or after the cold war. but it's also this the card that he cannot play. and by the way, the last point being, if he did use a nuclear weapon, it would be on ukrainian territory, and ukrainians are the 1st to say, look at matthew polt, look at hard teeth. look what the russians already do to us with conventional weapons. the use of a nuclear bomb to destroy a ukrainian city from the ukraine perspective is no worse than the fact that there will be russians being allowed to destroy their cities day by day with conventional yes, just the bluff. so it'd be talking about the fight seriously. about this all arguments, but it's everything, but it's not bluff. so that means just to be clear that you think russia would actually last nucleotide dinning table to do whatever the rest of the things they want to go up at the time. the thinking that should do it. i know the rest of the search engines, i'm not from permanence, i'm not sharing the use of by the rate. i'm just trying to read the minds of my countrymen, which i think, i think that,

that just that that's true. trying to think now the best they, they can take it seriously. we also have to take a look at the situation in europe and the nato allies. the situation in the front is dire. after a 1000 days of war. the nato can't rely on the us report after terms of victory anymore. and countries are struggling for unity and must increase their capacity to attack, but how unified are the needle member countries in the 1st place and who is ready to lead in difficult times. many ukrainian cities lie in rubble and ashes, and civilians on demoralized at the front exhaust the soldiers who are facing the shortage of weapons and ammunition. the pressure is mounting. russia continues to advance into ukrainian territory not receiving support from north korea and most of the reads from game and the war appears to be escalating into

a global conflict in europe. nato is on highlight that we will continue to intensify us for, for the in alms industry and the system its development. this will accelerate the availability of materials to the crane armed forces of fulfilling state. but there is disagreement within the western alliance. if future us president donald trump has his way, european countries will have to significantly increase the defense budgets. while poland in the baltic states are advocating for great to support for ukraine. germany is putting on the brakes. transfer all of schultz maintains is opposition to supplying taurus crews. marseilles, fearing that such, deliveries, control, gemini, the range of the conflict, is the escalating? does nato need to prepare for an emergency? you would argue there hasn't been an emergency all the time already. good stuff. uh,

need to have years to prepare for a potential. trump presidency. did it? no. nope. okay. what can they do now? too late? well, so 1st you have to acknowledge that the russian army, the conventional russian army is booked on a new train. if you look into cleaning it out, if you look into this, the russian finish board is basically empty, straining their new recruits, and you want them to use that trained to be sent to your train. but there is no, there are no units left with an oper, our chief capacity. so we have some time because this army that is now in ukraine. if it doesn't win, which would be a catastrophe, it is better needs to be organized. um, but then we and it's not only about money sort of re re, um, in europe or a re organizing the european armies to face of this. but is, is something that goes into doctrine, training and education readiness,

a scale ability of effort to have for surfaces, again, to have territorial forces. again, to have a coast defense. again, the of my a sort of air defense you and it's not only the high end, but also the low end to protect against the drone. a must have drone attacks. all these uh, come on, a lot of structural changes in, in armies in europe, where the mindset of expeditionary welfare going to the ball comes going to have gotten his phone, et cetera. so that will take time, but you know, the, i'm, i'm a bit disappointed that actually this, this, this work on this shift is so slow and so sluggish. and there's not only political resistance, there's all the traffic resistance from, from domestic, i protest. html change. so still no wake up moment from your perspective, we're not even withdrawn from the president's. uh i, i, i see that the, uh, this from presidents who will be a very be to wake up. and we would be lucky if it only costs money. so i'm your,

you had mentioned that this is already a global war. and are you saying that because of the north korean troops and ukraine or what in your perspective may go to go where it's not about north korea and troops not get interested in just a small like this on the, on the sidelines on this, or think level of or is, or actually is not about actually it's not about to find the grade pressures that's for the rest of the set of best on the line. just brushing is it the board with the rest? and gord ross is few danger danger by the rest of the society by the western democracies . but because the russian government sees the rest of democracy based on kind of democracy as it been just for the russian reasoning for the stability of country, for unity of country, as i'm not going to see it once again. but for russian leadership, the best in democracy is a direct treat and they're fighting this in the ukraine. but what would make it

global would be the role of the other countries and the rest of the world. and the congress is buying group wants to the ukraine, other countries supporting ukraine financially. so for from the russian point of view to global conflicts and because the ukraine would not be able to defend so long come to serve adults apart from the, from the, from the euro, from, from just like what i sure would not be able to stay in this world without help from china, with the iranian and north korean. initially, it's a gross, correct. but let's talk about the main supplier for the nato countries, which is still the usa. jessica, it's difficult to look into the future. it's difficult to predict donald trump, but what do you expect? what would you expect in the coming months after january 20, we can predict unpredictability, 1st and foremost from donald trump. here, as we experienced in the 1st trump administration, does not so much have a clear set of policy priorities that he sets out to implement whether he has the goal of his own success. and how that success is defined is,

is completely up to him. he wants to come out as the winner, as on top and has been seeing as the strong one in the room. and this is actually a level where he and the kremlin have some traits in common in terms of how they see power and weakness and how they've given take from a lot of ukrainians these days. you'll hear actually that there, they don't necessarily see the incoming trump administration as a bad thing for them. because with the unpredictability of trump, it may create windows of opportunity for the ukrainians, because the russians will not know what to expect. and just as much as the credits . and also of course, there are many voices still in the republican party, whose band firmly with ukraine and who will make clear to president trump, that ukrainian victory is in american interest and in trumps interest. whereas

under the biden ministration, the very predictable drip feed slow support to ukraine meant that russia could make long term plans and knew more or less what to expect. and uh, so we can't expect anything but unpredictability. and we have to use the moment as much as possible to, to show the americans, 1st and foremost, that europe is doing more and taking responsibility for european security. and secondly, that ukraine, the candid, we'll win this fight if we stay with them. however, none of that sounds like a quick end to the war, as trump has many times announced a good stuff. do you see a quick end to this war? yeah, to yes. so the, if, if we take it, that's how the face value, what is rubers about. so if the trump plan, or the plan or phase of wise's, they want to freeze the front. but that was those byte and actually was up to,

he wanted to have a ceasefire, and you said he should not be on catastrophic terms. he never said ukrainian victory. he never said the restoration of any borders or lions. it was basically just freed the worst, didn't get it, the pressure, the, the belief, the child's because their hide russian casualties, that putting will kind of kind of come to his senses, discover he's just human, a face and then in the war is naive. so the, the single b trunk bones gets his piece. what that, what will he do? how we will apply pressure by sanctions, by, by supporting ukraine volts. really do then. yes. and we don't, we definitely don't know. it's still yet to be seen. time is running. thank you. so all 3 of you for the use of very important insights and to you for watching. remember, you can also watch our videos on youtube, just search for d w use and find the latest to the point program. i'm sorry you don't get us till next time. take care and good by the

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front bought the this is data, we news line from berlin, israel and hezbollah accused each other of violating a ceasefire deal as people return to the bombed out buildings in southern lebanon. on the 2nd day of the truest israel says, if carried out of air strikes on a weapon depot also on the program. ukrainians take cover at last to cave and russia launch is a massive attack on the countries energy. great thousands protests as george's pro russian prime minister, a suspense has countries been to join the european union. we report lines from the capital tbilisi and a former.