i'm very happy i the states i that i'm very happy the hello it's spelling briefing time. i'm your host mikayla kusha and we're recording this in a week where ukraine and russell have once again exchanged drone attacks. the in you parliament has confirmed a new european commission, and i'm going to back up published her long awaited memoirs which raises the question, is it will i'm going to michael's thoughts pretend has warn you. crane the rise of the right. it's the same morning and with me here is judy dempsey and we said who the who is a defense analyst, but we'll start with you a duty. you've been quite a critic of the current government. but is it all on the back of fault? it's just been continuously actually, and even before uncle america became cancer and before dr. was give her shoulder

the social democrats and to see transfers even like souls, social democrats, of the it's a coalition. they've generally recently pursued to pull russian policy. and this has been a german tradition. macros certainly pursue this. give her children consolidates. is that before medical and took a lot of schools quite some time actually to break out of the special german very russian relationship, georgia because of russia's 2nd major invasion of ukraine in touch. you touched too well this week for the 1st time we actually heard from la macklin. explain in some fact to detail her course on russia, but i just want to briefly go back into the year 2005. it had just become clear off to her now election victory that i'm going back a would indeed go on to become dumb. these 1st female tots, that lots of people in that press room. many people asking questions on policy. and then there's a set, the young go duty dempsey asking this, let's take

a look at the bed and come, come in this door. can we do to see this is yeah, as it is, as you get this, you get this quote. so you ask. so how are you doing, how are you feeling? and then she hesitates and she says, well, 1st of all, i'm good. i'm we, we just heard from her actually that this was a huge moment of triumph for her. and that every time she got re elected, which was 3 times she felt look, i'm the fast to, i'm the 1st woman's haunts, the. so how much of an of an aha moment do you have an uncle, a miracle as she was presenting her memoir, so sweet. i miss the memoirs really on the carry, the revealing, i think you're expecting much more detail. not so much closer because she's not

pressing the public public figure when she was transferred to gossip. but i think we expected formal insights then the secrecy of politics. her relationship is putting the whole cycle over north stream, the gas pipeline. and we sort of go through and kind of indication offer 3 terms of chancellor roles and kind of any, any kind of insights increases. the simple fact could have been changed and maybe some will be disappointed buys. but that's how she is quite factual. doesn't give way to emotional outburst or any kind of sort of intense scrutiny of her t terms. there was actually a sense of disappointment. i can confirm also here in the bowling bubble of correspondence and, and i do want to drop that sound bite of ungrammatical. what she responds exactly, so that to that perceive lack of self criticism. let's take a listen personal social full of holes. i know that that's a little controversial, but there is no point them, you know, saying what i did was

a wrong because the middle of a sudden when i realized to the shopping for, you know, it's just not true. and why should i have to do that? and then any married and then do i'm so no marriage and self criticism i'm looking back. does it help in this situation right now? i mean, you mentioned no the north stream that she was actually, she had a clear logic that either one can have a different opinion, but her logic was look if, if we stop talking to them and pretend if we stop having these economic relations and things will only get worse pretty fast, although she did admit, yes it was because of cheap gas. she wanted that for the german economy. and she actually insisted for a very long time. i remember this reporting on her that those, this was a purely business enterprise. and on the very late, she actually admitted that it was also political project. and now in hindsight, the argument is it was political,

the long. it was to keep that relationship stable to you, bind to this. i wish history shows that shipment buy into it. and the tradition of the german relationship with russia has been old, was this kind of model and changed to trade. and this never materialized, no matter how much of the german business and the lobbies did trade with russia. it's never led to any kind of it. and no, i wouldn't even say the democratic change because that's too radical, but it didn't lead to it trust for you could actually deal with the kind of issues that needed to be raised. for instance, economic dependency on gas. the use of gas as a security weapon, the use of gas and energy as blackmail and actually puts a successive german government student with russia was increase the economic dependence in russia at the expense of east in new york. and i think this is a very interesting trace among successive chances in germany that they looked at

eastern europe at this ukraine credits on media of had this georgia for this bill route to the prism of russia. and there are some now and the social democratic party and the opposition, conservative christian democrats. that's to believe that, oh, well, it's not that they have to, after the old days with russia, but never the less. this is feeling that eastern europe is viewed to the prism of russian super, how dependent we ex, or the counter argument is, of course, that you are a bit germany con, escape it's geographical location that, that always has to be some form of accommodation. some form of relationship with russia, but what i find quite striking is that you made the argument that there's a realization that, that change to trade doesn't what, that's also something a realization that i'm going back with. came to a relationship with china actually, although she very reluctantly admitted that a towards the end of her tonsils zip. and that, that change something didn't take place. that was

a thoughtful realization as well. so what, what would be the lesson for a few to them? government because we will see political change. i mean that is on the cost as the elections in february of this coalition. right now there's just broken up describe itself as an you buy guns, quantity to one as a kind of a coalition of transition. but the question is transition to which political change politics has become very complex cases. and so has the whole issue of, of economic dependence and globalization. as you get a hint of this from angular metal that's 1st happened under her, her brain. and the deep before was germany became dependent on china for trade. if it came dependence on russia for energy. and it became increasingly dependent as old as on the united states with the security umbrella. this is kind of dependencies actually create a kind of intellectual laziness. if also prevents the diversification and crates of dependence,

which actually can be used against german inches. so any incoming chance there would have to look at these dependencies and consider forces the best interest for diversification, but also the best interest of germany. a truly tilted dependence and this will happen, but china is coming back to, to damage actually determined economy. it actually prevented reform is actually didn't wake up. the german politically leads to the fact that germany is fixing the industrialization. and because of the competition from china now to, to the economists here in germany, certainly realized that the old economic model is over. that hasn't been tucked just because of dis dependencies. i'd like to bring in who, who the on this is the defense analysts now, but for 3 decades was ab nato in brussels. so michael, just can you just tell us when you're listening to this? when you hear of intellectual laziness,

you must have been at the shop and if that analysis is completely true, do you, sarah? it will be my 1st question. and what did this mean for those past 2 decades? one can say in terms of defense planning at need to as well intellectual laziness is a great term and i subscribe to it as well. i think this is the result, as judy rightly says about them. uh, the result of a number of developments would seem to go on in the right direction until they hit the snack. and this is a problem. we are no all facing, not just germany. um, but in terms of the defense funding of nato, of course, nature has started to re orient itself since 2014, since the annexation of premier towards its initial core business of, of collective defense into terrence. after 2 for 2 decades, we were thinking in terms of crisis management abroad rather than protecting europe

at home. so this is a collective guilt if time is a so we were all a little bit lazy intellectually. but it is true that germany, in my view as a german in nato, did not to come forward with too many ideas about the evolution of nature. i think there was a sense of things go their way whether we are massively involved or, or not. and as judy says, the us of course, split, calling the shots in, they don't, we always assume that the west would come up with a good ideas. we don't have to. well, the us calling the shots. that's a really interesting one because and lament goes now blame singlehandedly with having and prevented the pos towards nature very early on, and both for ukraine and also for georgia. and essentially, she's being accused by william is a landscape pretty much directly that this brought up to ukraine of its path to a stability and,

and towards the european unions. this is something i'm going to mac will admit, see she preventative, but she says she had a very good reason for that. and i have to say her book loans gave us more of an insight than the almost 800 pages of her a bite of biography on this one. let's take a listen to home. and we had a situation with some, maybe hope that a decision to accept ukraine into nato would be enough to deter the russian president. so often in showing voice that's good. again, i did not believe that, and that's why i was again state that so she sticks by it. what do you make of it? her answer is actually it falls short of that of a different reality. and the different comments and the commitment that the united states in step of your pin countries promised ukraine in budapest,

memorandum in the early 19 nineties in return for giving up its nuclear arsenal. ukraine was guaranteed to secure he counties literally secures he counties. and they didn't materialize, so we have let down ukraine. this is the price point. secondly, the diesel officials in you officials angle america. they all say, oh, well, we would stand by ukraine freshly and secondly as needed. so the secretary general, just keep repeating tool will every country has the independent right to decide if they want to join me. so assuming they reach it, they make the beach to the right standards. well, you claim it has an extraordinary military force. now, will eclipse the web trains on me and so on. i probably won't be admitted today. so a fight. because as i said earlier, we always looked at this part of your to the prism of russia. yes, russia has nuclear weapons. well, so has some countries and you are not suggesting that would be used, but this is

a kind of blackmail. and it's actually undermining our so called rhetoric about recognizing the independence itself. once you have countries to choose which direction do you want to go. i just want to bring me to hulu because again, right now, nature would not be able to admit to create, of course, because it is involved in active conflict. that's not possible under nato's own terms. but i'm going to mca also argued that back then, she felt just simply allowing these countries onto the path could have sparked an attack by russia and would have tested the lions even before ukraine was a member. and she felt that for high it was a no go, she would not have sent them in troops to defend. you create that point in time. and a feeling also was that nature wouldn't have done that was you who do you share that assessment and what is the thinking in the to today is this was this really the original sin that left us in this situation that we're in today?

i have to see, i'm citing with merkel here because indeed the medical isn't good company because as we now know, for example, william burns was now the director of the c. a who was at the time of the american invested a to russia, wrote a memo which has been declassified recently and where he basically said, don't to the, to his own life ministration. don't do that. don't offer membership in whatever form to, to ukraine. well, the president, the, the boss was all up for us. yes. yes, of course. but, but the people who knew a little better, a said they'll do that. that's the as bern said in his memo, this is the brightest of all red lines for russia. and i think i remember him a year before that a year before the bucharest summit put in, delivered his famous or infamous remarks at the munich security conference. so in the way he already started or describes what we've been called into cold war. and

then a year later, we are meeting semi admitting, i would say 2 countries that way of far away from, from, from any realistic a chance of joining at that time. 2008, we inviting them to nato. i think that was not a very smart move by the us, but of course medical she said and whom i'm worse, i might my favorite solution would have been not to have any. ready mention of membership in this, in this book, budapest, bucharest, sorry, member of context, however, which had already gone public before. so there was no way that there wasn't a miracle view would, would prevail. so they produced to come a rather offered a consensus result, which is we invite you, but we don't tell you when i but this means we, you marked ukraine and georgia as members of our future of

a future sphere of western influence. and if you know, putting things help putting it on some of his onto, gosh, i was thinking, then this was indeed a kind of a mortal sin that nature committed at the time to dates a different matter. because today, as judy says, we have a war going on, there will be hopefully some sort of peace deal next next year. let's hope trumpets actually deliver, delivering and putting once it to. then the question is, what do we do with your brain? and then i personally would argue for many reasons, bring them as soon as you can into nato. but in 2008, it was not a very smart idea. and that brings us into the here and now because what is the thinking right now? what is the planning taking place at the, the natural deadline at the moment is, of course, the 20th of january, when donald trump becomes a us president. again, he's valid to end this conflict within 24 hours. now, we keep talking to politicians here. there's a lot of guessing going on,

but nato thinks, in terms of scenarios. michael, so how many scenarios are being planned or? well, i don't think that there's not you can plan at this stage because of the drums as, as we all know is quite unpredictable. it's, it's interesting to see now what kind of people he's nominating for which kind of jobs. i think it was a very smart move by the new secretary general. my go to, to go to see trump at tomorrow, logo and to, you know, sort out maybe a few basics. so that the, that the drum noise has at least an idea of what the europeans may think about such a deal. but in any case, it's clear that if you have a deal that needs to be, that need to be some forms of security guarantees, assurances whatever you may, may want to call it for ukraine. and whether these comes through nato, or whether the membership of nature or whether these come through individual allies, you know, expressing their willingness to support you, prayed in times of need. that remains to be seen. that will all be

a matter of negotiation. it will be particularly difficult because of the russians will. of course, hark back to the eastern bull tops and say, well, ukraine at the time, because this was a weird situation for ukraine. but at the time ukraine a accepted a solution outside of nato, the ukrainians will likely say no, no, no, that was under pressure. so don't take this at face value, but we will have very difficult times ahead of us. what do you make of what we're seeing right now happening in russia, this, this new into ballistic missile? being tested by the russians. and all these threats, the change of the nuclear doctrine, which essentially makes it legally much easier for russia to respond to nuclear. and even in cases where it's not attack directly by a nuclear force, so it's basically tailored towards nature country support of ukraine and of course,

and a lot of other hybrids. i mean how, how hybrid has this gone already? are we ready in at the center of a hybrid will here in europe? i love the missile issue. i don't think that is a to, to worry and groceries trying to keep the war, regional. they bringing north koreans and whatever. but they want to keep the war regional. that's their only chance to recheck goal of dominating ukraine. so they need to deter nato and other countries from supporting ukraine more. and that's what the, the, the threats are all about. the problem is they have threatened so many things and draw on so many red lines, which we have always crossed, that it's very difficult for them now. they've run out and they're running out of options to threaten us. so they, they, they manipulate the doctrine they, they send a medium range, miss holloway, which makes no sense. but they want to show that they still have some options left and the, sorry,

the 2nd question is how hybrid this is, because we're now sorry, yes. and the durham in terms of being expelled, we're seeing a british national basically pro rated in front of cameras who for on the ukrainian side in breach of international clearly what do you make of that? well, this is hybrid, as we used to say, when we started to double in the subject is nato hyper just the weapon of the week you, you use, you cannot move forward militarily, so you hit your target with other means and then the direct military means and the restaurant is using a huge array of, of, of tools, of instruments to well, the stabilize the west. i don't think it works very well, but it's, it's, it's a tool. they have a strategy. they obviously prefer our, what do i make of it? well, we have to respond to it, but not by no, nothing in, by employee for military action or, you know, invoke article 5 of nature or anything like that,

but simply and analyze each case as a. so we're going to risk case and then respond. we have responded, remember the nobody truck incident in the, into the okay, where we not only hold, i would rush out but also expelled. lots of diplomats from our countries. there are other ways we can do cyber stuff. we can all we can also do is stuff like like, like that. but it, we should stop admiring what they're doing and just look at the ways to counter this. they always to counter it didn't keep not saying i would do this is kind of the, the professional security on this take on it is this collective we of course, includes the politicians as well. do you feel that and germany as the a key country in the european union is doing its homework right now, because after a week out in the middle of an election campaign, it feels like jeremy is very preoccupied. isn't that german use very preoccupied. but as michael says, i'm just as important for people witnessing in europe is

a hybrid more waged by the kremlin. and it's a hybrid board, a cyber security, taxable sort to some, some nation misinformation funding political parties. and we see the situation here between the fluoride alternative to germany and the vi can connect a lines that the are pro russian the on to the war. and in ukraine, the on 2 days who to move in to change it on to americanism. you're a skeptic to hold on to so many things and the role of any german leader and the role of any leader into your opinion must say or 20 to it's public. this is false, is at stake. and forces of stake is this ability. our democracy under values, these have to be really spelled out instead of running away. and i think it's something much more fundamental. mikaela, i think it's the politics of fear. mm. i think many that leaders in the

e u. member states acceptable to countries in poland check republic. they are afraid under your feet because western europe was all over is and is under the security of the american umbrellas security umbrella with eastern your a comes from the just been tradition of occupation since 1945 and which ended 1990 to 1990 is not far away to the memories there is i'll keep patient which actually shows how the european union member states are divided overflows stuffs that use to take towards russia. and indeed ukraine as introduce is not just an east west divide. you also have hungary, which has the same kind of historic memory of occupation leaning strategically towards russell where it suits itself. but i mean, we just saw in the united states that the democrats coming to harris and on that platform of democracy is at stake. frankly, she, she just didn't get anywhere. it was, it was a completely different issue that donald trump played into. and that gained him an over whelming success. that none of the pulses that actually really seen and the

political bubbles haven't really seen either. so why shouldn't work in europe? so is it an intrinsic intellectual problem in your and the intellectual problem is at risk list, the think tanks and the commentators and the bubbles that we owe more or less think the same in the liberal settings. we have to defend democracy and everything, but we didn't even know if lots of people behind on trump's message was for actually the, the wrecking people of the united states coming to hers. she's been talking about the middle task. in fact, she was, she was joe biden, the outgoing president, who was the last dentist encompass no dentist and coming to her, i would have been to a dentist as caesar. so it makes the question, what is the role of you are? and donald trump and his device has super should be strength and what's called

a european put her inside nation. she'll be united, should you opinion move towards will integration? these are huge issues and we keep talking about them and say that it gets done. who i just want to find the ask you in the cold light of defense analysis, how much of a security issue is migration going to be in the future? because when we're not just to, we're not no longer talking about migrants coming from syria, from active goals. on look, potentially talking about millions of microns coming from ukraine. a yes indeed, i mean be coming back and going back to market for one second. it shows the whole i, if the issue and the elections in eastern germany, it shows how foreign policy migration domestic policy are intertwined. and if not, will coalitions in eastern germany come together, where foreign policy decisions have put into the party program organs as the coalition for the treaty. then you realize that you cannot separate the separate

and easily these different subjects anymore. and i think, given all that, the medical maneuvered quite, quite well the fear of massive immigration has been, i think, haunting many countries in europe. it's haunting the united states. we can see how that goes. also, one of the reasons why trump was re elected because bite and was not seen as strong enough in protecting the southern border of the united states. so we will see migration becoming a bigger security policy issue. i hope though that does not mean that it becomes a military issue, because that's the last thing in the world. we should try to think of military solutions to such a problem. was you who will and that's what will leave it today. did you? i just wanna ask you, what's your, what's your biggest hope and fear going into the next couple of months and particularly the trump, to presidency. and the fear is, uh, the, the economic situation in germany, the week germany economy is very bad for do your opinion. and since it's very bad

for, to your opinion, actually it gets trumpeted up behind, especially with the tire, of course, the secondly, it's very hard to know how to jump through dealing with nasal as because really said, it depends on his advisors. also it says the transatlantic of bulk and balkans require compromises and actually somebody of corporation. so it's a mix of hopes on certainty and a little bit of fear about the german economy. the. okay, we'll leave it that. thank you to the demo you. thank you, me to hula and suddenly hit fall in briefing, we will be unpacking that over the coming months and the coming years potentially. and this is brandon precinct will be back next week and you'll find us on youtube at dw news on dw combined. and briefing and on all major podcast platforms, once a week from now on, was also check out our dw button and briefing newsletter that comes out every tuesday from me mechanic who's not. thank you very much. i

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been given by the business data we news and these are a top stories. israel one has bull, i have accused each other violating a ceasefire deal on a 2nd day. israel says and carried out an air strike on a weapons depot and targeted suspect entering the restricted area near the lebanese border. hezbollah, m p, accused israel, a firing on residence as they return to their homes. ukrainian officials say russia has launched a massive attack on his energy infrastructure in the.