it covers that even local press the we've got to respond to this process and the expected size of the letter put in this town. dig a new miracle weapon against ukraine, moscow's hypersonic miss style is quote, unquote, invincible. and it's used as a response to far reaching attacks from crate out dangerous. are these latest developments? are we reaching the level of escalation? many have steered. bear with me sort of attack on the ukranian city of denise pro is a message to the west weapon has arranged several 1000 kilometers, also be equipped with nuclear warheads. nato is on high alert. us france and great britain 1st allowed ukraine to shoot deep to russian territory. germany's own f sides as so far not followed suit on ukrainian soil and russian troops are advancing very quickly as north korean soldiers are also deployed to support them.

on to the point, we ask rushes new strategy and you create a way is put things weren't going cold. the welcome to this week's to the point, i'm probably going to get us. it's good to have you with us. let's meet today's guess. good stuff. i'm guessing is an expert in eastern europe, security policy and military strategies at the national defense academy in vienna. vladimir is the pump, is my d. w, a co worker, a reporter and editor with the w. some russian service. and jessica berlin is a senior fellow with the trans atlantic defense and security program at the center for european policy analysis to all of you are very welcome. thank you for being with us. that's good stuff. i'd like to start with you that are putting, says the use of this new hypersonic miss. so it was just

a response to western countries allowing the use of their own missiles against russian territory. is this latest escalation on europe. and if so, is russia's response appropriate? while it was a signal that it doesn't like what the west is doing. but we also have to keep it in perspective. it is a one of shots and a rush of faces constrains if it wants to escalate the will further, especially into the nuclear field. there is a strong opinion of china and india them sort of the biggest becker's and supporters of russia on, on the field of there's nature, the terrans of russia at the time of their wedding. the will in ukraine, is using its conventional military capabilities on ukraine and cannot use them either to signal or control escalation kinds. actually russia, aside from last spring and aside from bowman, you train, tries to avoid escalation with anybody else bought about the situation in your

train because it come finish and yeah. and on. now, one has to say that the sort of conventional delivery by actually also to capable of weapons systems like in charlotte, i call $11.00 and all the other conventional supervisor systems is far more deadly on the basis then, then these shots, and yet we see that rhetoric coming from russia, that nato is escalating, the war of letting me, uh, how do you read, put into assessment that since you paint can only use these technologies with the use of european satellite technologies. european nato countries are now directly involved in the war. but still the question that the conferences holder is a global, so it's not original conflict on another reason why it's interesting that are great and it's like a global global event. and the signal of this messiah will start as of the most domestic purposes. well, because the mystic mirror actually has a quite a problem with the economy this evening or will it realize demolition in the last these experiments seem to level so it's sort of domestic audience as well. and so

they are capable to test new weapons in your right direction has enough other rockets and sales, which is just able to show the input you're in the okay. yeah. what exactly would you say is put in some purpose when you're to talk about the domestic importance of that message, is it to calm down the population or maybe resistance in the country? you don't need to calm down them, but they need to send some signal for the domestic audience that we are able to escalate this whole thing student quite new level to, to, to make the next step of the escalation to answer appropriate property to the dangers of the us and french and breaches marseilles, which are being fired from the pregnancy, right to the last name for the course of the region. interest likes it and i think the best to bring it on, bring it on, is certainly one of the many worrying perspectives that we see here. uh jessica,

despite many were just trying to downplay the many fears we see at least here in the western nations. some are talking about a new and more dangerous face of this world. what's your take? well, this is certainly a critical phase in the war because ukraine has been pushed to their limits in terms of hardware capacity and man power, the drip feed to little to wait support that they've received from the west over the past 1000 plus of days has been enough to keep them alive and in the fight, but not enough for them to, to score decisive victories. and to make further significant advances since the 2022 counter offensive. and letting me put you knows this and is playing for time. he sees that with every renewed threats of a newer coal weapon or what, what may be, i should nuclear sable rattle,

saber rattling is effective in western capital's, and that has been enough to slow and deter western support for ukraine in a way that has allowed russia to entrench themselves along a 1000 kilometer front to boost their production as well us to boost their recruitment and deployment of manpower. they know that they have time on their side . and so this is why this winter, especially leading into january when of course, there will be a change of personnel in the white house where both sides will need to push as hard as they can to have the most optimal negotiating position. when the trump administration begins, those threats against the west seem to be effective. russia is the point, and you miss island, it's war against a crane and it's more than just a typical military attack. the weapon, as we mentioned, is supposed to also send a message. the question is, how dangerous is it for the west?

the sky above ukrainian city of the new pro, russia is testing its new weapon, reportedly a ballistic missile called, or russian dick, which translates to hazelnut tree. 13 claims the miss silas unique worldwide, capable of firing multiple warheads, single tenuously, and reaching distances of up to 5500 kilometers. it can also be equipped with nuclear weapons. currently this is pollutants response excluding nuclear warheads. however, this situation may change a few cranes loan to stone shadow and attack comes miss styles that russian territory again, of the rest of the site is currently being tested in combat conditions and responds to be aggressive actions of nato countries towards russia. the decision regarding the father deployment of medium range in short range missiles will depend on the actions of the united states and its allies. kids. this is proof that teaching has

no interest in peace. is nationalism today all crazy, named by his once again revealed his true colors and how much he despises, dignity, freedom, and human life. and how much the fee is it must be that i can put you into new miss. oh, bluff for one to weapon. international leaders are certainly making a big deal out of this new messiah jessica. what do we know about it? and the capacity it has to destroy targets far away from you create as well. the short answer is uh to the question um, from that segment, it's a bluff, it's bluster, even. this may be a new weapon, but it's not a new capacity rusher has mid range and even intercontinental ballistic missiles. so this is not bringing a new capacity into the war. it may be

a new weapon system. it may have been used for the 1st time, but it's not a new ability or capability on the side of the russian military. so the framing of dismissal as a window, vasa or a miracle weapon, is simply inaccurate. and, and this is actually the real target of the use of this weapon to spread fear, to make people talk about it to make russia look scary. and to remind the world and above all the west that if russia wanted to, they could drop nuclear bombs on ukraine. and this threat has been very effective for over a 1000 days to deter western capitals from from army ukraine sufficiently. and so what we're seeing here is simply a recycling of an old threat, but using a new tool to, to remind to the west i'm, it's also important to point out the symbolism of using this

a specific type of mid range rocket back in 2018 donald trump withdrew from a uh, arms control treaty governing um the developments and use of mid range miss lyles from russia, because russia was working on the research of numerous styles despite the treaty. so trump withdrew from the treaty and for vladimir, put in to use this weapon for the 1st time. right after trump got re elected is also sending a signal to trumpet sort of a symbolic messaging to washington to the incoming administration. i remember up on you guys 4 years ago and i will keep playing you and doing what i want when you come back into the white house. all right, but if this is all an old clay book, if you will, why do you think western leaders are reacting to that? so, effectively, if you will, and from the perspective of russia, well as being, directing effectively to this kind of implementation from day one will and,

and that's why putting his playing because he knows that this kind of few books, no lessons learned. and this in a 1000 days of war then actually the of this learned a lot of lessons during the cold war this, this, me so basically is the same trick like the d, r as the 10 pioneer the, the intermediate range, me saw the cost, the, the double trick decision in, in, in nature, in the late seventy's, i bought a bought people also this used to living and these kind of situation of consequence turns that they, they are incapable of dealing with that population as well. you mean, well, the, for the population old me size is a big and scary, but this is why you have politicians on politicians need to explain to their population. what is going on, what is not going on and handle. this is why if you remember a schmidt's a speeches in times of crisis,

especially for example, the back down the r f terrell. or you kind of calmly walk through the population through very 10 situations in his transfer. you like like for example, the, the more visual affection, everything else. this is what these will lead to. it's all actually paid for. uh, unfortunately, uh, leaders to they think that the only thing i have to decide upon is the d. you substitute for renewable energy use or, or, or by that you should face old, a conventional car simulates out there. there are more dramatic decisions and topics to decide. yeah, just just for clarification, we were talking about the entire incidence that happened in germany. and then here we have to take time into consideration. this comes at a time where a restaurant seeing heavy losses in the front, at least from what we're hearing here, about 80022900 casualties per day, according to some reports. how big do you think is the pressure to perform from the side of rush at this very moment?

i would go step back to the definition of bluff here for the nuclear power if the war in europe against the neighbor and country of ukraine. but in brother, since against the rest of the democratic award. and this time point, i'm this nuclear power lounge in the midst file into the neighbor country intern contingent on this. i'll shoot me an orange new weapons as your site at the point which is most pers pacific, quite important decision from the, from the best of the rest of the community to allow them to create in the use the long courage marseilles on the russians so so russia are acting, so this would be the messiah. and you called at the bluff. i mean, it's not the bluff. it's everything, but it's not of love. it's a very strong signal to the best on society that russia is reading to react

this way. but then we have a very weird disagreement between the gift quite serious between you to a bluff or not a bluff. what can we conclude? well, what exactly are the russians trying to communicate? they're trying to scare our politicians and our routing public to not support ukraine more. why? because if we do, russia will lose. and that would be a catastrophe for the poor to the regime. and he knows that he needs to deliver the russian people. but if not, prosperity, then at least pride, and the sense that we are strong, we are powerful. we are respected and feared he needs to legitimize his rule with victory or the perception of victory. so this kind of signaling, it's not pointless, it certainly has a point, but this is not at all. i'm an indication that, oh, if you do that again,

if attack them, so i hit another target on russian soil. we're going to a new piccadilly circus. that's the kind of fear he's trying to spread. and that is something he is not going to do because put in for all of a rush with military capacity cannot win this war alone. he needs the support of china. absolutely, and china has been very clear. both on and off camera with the russians and with the west that they do not have an interest in a nuclear conflict. they certainly have an interest in russian victory, but not in the outbreak of nuclear war. and russia knows this very well that without chinese support, they're dead in the water. they also know that if they cross the nuclear line, this would be this thing that would finally wake up, even the most hesitant and fearful western leaders to act decisively. so this is the only threats he has left that can truly strike terror into people's hearts, whether they were born before or after the cold war. but it's also this the card

that he cannot play. and by the way, the last point being, if he did use a nuclear weapon, it would be on ukrainian territory, and ukrainians are the 1st to say, look, it's not your fault. look at hard teeth. look what the russians already do to us with conventional weapons. the use of a nuclear bomb to destroy a ukrainian city from the ukraine perspective is no worse than the fact that there will be russians being allowed to destroy their cities day by day with conventional yes, just the bluff. so they'd be talking about the fight seriously. about this arguments, but it's everything, but it's not bluff. so that means just to be clear that you think russia would actually loss on nuclear targeting table to do whatever the rest of the things they want to do. ok, the time, the thinking that should do it. i love the rest of the search engines. i'm not from permanent, so i'm not sharing the views of by the rate. i'm just trying to read the minds of my countrymen, which i think, i think that,

that just that that's true. trying to think now the best they've taken taken seriously. so we also have to take a look at the situation in europe and the nato allies. the situation in the front is dire. after a 1000 days of war. the nato can't rely on the us report after terms of victory anymore. and countries are struggling for unity and must increase their capacity to attack, but how unified are the needle member countries in the 1st place and who is ready to lead in difficult times. many ukrainian cities lie in rubble and ashes, and civilians on demoralized and at the front exhaust the soldiers who are facing the shortage of weapons and ammunition. the pressure is mounting. russia continues to advance into ukrainian territory not receiving support from north korea and most of the reads from the game and the war appears to be escalating into a global conflict in europe. nato is on highlight that

we will continue to intensify our support to the ukraine arms industry and the system its development. this will accelerate the availability of materials to the korean armed forces of fulfilling states. but there is disagreement within the western alliance. if future us president donald trump has his way, european countries will have to significantly increase the defense budgets, while poland in the baltic states are advocating for great to support for ukraine. germany is putting on the brakes. transfer the old off shops maintains is opposition to supplying taurus crews. marseilles, fearing that such, deliveries, control gemini further into the conflict. is the whole escalating? does nato need to prepare for an emergency? you would argue there hasn't been an emergency all the time already. good stuff uh,

need to have years to prepare for a potential trump presidency. did it? no. nope. okay. what can they do now? to let it's well. so 1st you have to acknowledge that the russian army, the conventional russian army is booked on a new train. if you look into cleaning it out, if you look into this, the russian finish board is basically empty of training their new recruits. you want them to use that trained to be sent to your train, but there is no, there are no units left with an oper, our chief capacity. so we have some time because this army that is now in ukraine. if it doesn't win, which would be a catastrophe, it is better needs to be organized. um, but then we will, is, and it's not only about money, the sort of re re um in europe or a re organizing the european armies to face of this. but is, is something that goes into doctrine, training of education, readiness,

and scale ability of effort to have reserve forces, again, of territorial forces have gotten to have a close defense. it can do it from a sort of air defense you and it's not only the high end, but also the low end to protect against the drone. a must have drone attacks. all these uh, come on, a lot of structural changes in, in armies in europe, where the mindset of expeditionary welfare going to ball comes going to have gotten his bonus cetera. and that will take time. but you know, the, i'm, i'm a bit disappointed that actually this, this, this work on this shift is so slow and so sluggish. and there's not only political resistance, there's a, the traffic resistance from, from domestic, i perhaps has to html change. so still no wake up moment from your perspective, we're not even withdrawn from the president's. uh i, i, i see that the, uh, this from presidents who will be a very pete to wake up. and we would be lucky if it only costs money. so i'm your,

you had mentioned that this is already a global war. and are you saying that because of the north korean troops and ukraine or what's in your perspective may go to the it's not about north korea and troops, not credentials. so just to smote, life is on the, on the sidelines on this or big level of, or is, or actually is not about actually is not about to find that ukraine crashes. that's for the best and set of best. and i'm just brushing. is it more with the rest and gord rushes, few danger danger by the rest of the society by developing democracy. because the russian government sees the rest of the democracy based on kind of democracy as a dentist for the russian reasoning for the stability of the country for the unity of country. as i'm not saying this to you once again, but for russian leadership, the best in democracy is a direct treat. and they're fighting this in the okay. but what would make

a global would be the role of the other countries and the rest of the world and all that kind of trust is buying refunds to the ukraine. other countries supporting ukraine financially. so for from the russian point of view of the global conflict, so because of your grand would not be able to use the spent so long to serve adults approximately from, from the, from the european from just like when i sure would not be able to stay in this world without help from china, with the iranian and north korean initiatives and goals, correct. and so let's talk about the main supplier for the nato countries, which is still the usa. jessica, it's difficult to look into the future. it's difficult to predict donald trump, but what do you expect? what would you expect in the coming months after january 20, we can predict unpredictability, 1st and foremost from donald trump. here, as we experienced and the 1st trump administration does not so much have a clear set of policy priorities that he sets out to implement whether he has the goal of his own success. and how that success is defined is,

is completely up to him. he wants to come out as the winner, as on top and has been seeing as the strong one in the room. and this is actually a level where he and the kremlin have some traits in common in terms of how they see power and weakness and how they've given take from a lot of ukrainians these days. you'll hear actually that there, they don't necessarily see the incoming trump administration as a bad thing for them. because with the unpredictability of trump, it may create windows of opportunity for the ukrainians, because the russians will not know what to expect. and just as much as the credits . and also of course, there are many voices still in the republican party, whose band firmly with ukraine and who will make clear to president trump, that ukrainian victory is an american interest and in trumps interest. whereas

under the biden ministration, the very predictable drip feed slow support to ukraine meant that russia could make long term plans and knew more or less what to expect. and uh, so we can't expect anything but unpredictability. and we have to use the moment as much as possible to, to show the americans, 1st and foremost, that europe is doing more and taking responsibility for european security. and secondly, that ukraine canon will win this fight if we stay with them. however, none of that sounds like a quick end to the war. as trump has many times announced a good stuff. do you see a quick end to this war to s? so the if, if we take it that fell face value, what is rubers about sort of the trunk plan or the planning or for surprises. they want to freeze the front, but that was those bite and actually was up to, he wanted to have

a ceasefire. and he said he should not be on catastrophic terms. he never said ukrainian victory. he never said the restoration of any borders or lions. it was basically just freed the worst, didn't get it. pressure the belief, the child's because their hide russian casualties that put in will kind of kind of come to his senses, discover he's just human, a face and then in the war is naive so that the thing will be, trump, phones gets his piece. what that, what will he do? how we will apply pressure by sanctions, by, by supporting ukraine volts. really do then. yes. and we don't, we definitely don't know. it's still yet to be seen. time is running. thank you. so all 3 of you for these very important insights and to you for watching, remember, you can also watch our videos on youtube, just search for d, w use and find the latest to the point program i'm call, you know, get us to next time. take care and good by the

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