a cool, cool breeze, but it's just me the welcome to ask the w on youtube, nicole for our lease. this is a show where your questions take center stage today will be taking your questions and comments on the advanced advice here in rebel forces against the regime of president bush r. a sub rebels have now taken control of the city of homo marking. the latest gains in a week long, offensive against syrian government troops, hama is a strategically important city in the north western part of syria. it's about a 140 kilometers from the country. second largest city level trouble forces to control of last week. already, these are the 1st images to emerge from hama, and have been supplied by the rebels media organization, dw,

i need to tell you cannot verify when and where they were taking. the fall of hama is another important set back for president out a sod. so the question now is, will aside for joining me here in the studio to take your questions that need to we reported gabrielle on his end, ben to show of the head of the middle east and north africa division at the highland both foundation here in germany. so good to have you both. so while we wait for the 1st user questions to come in, um, i would like to get your take on how this advance has been pulled off. how could they take a level and hama at such speed? it might look as if it's coming as a surprise, however, they have been preparing for a long time. they have been planning for that moment. and pressure also grew on the very h t s. so that is the controlling section and it was there was public pressure saying why do you have all these men under arms? if you don't make any advances and, and the on the other side,

we also have to see the resume of special off has been very weak for years now. and they are withdrawing and nearly without a fight. garcia, you have an eye on the map because there's a lot of moving parts right now. do you maybe want to walk or viewers through where things stand as we speak? of course, like you said, nicole, things are moving really fast. the latest update we had was from comma and rebel said, now they have full control of how much and we can see that it's marked in blue on our map. it's the lowest point that they have reached, and now they're making their way to homes. and the factions, of course i'm not going to go into detail about all the different colors on this map. we'll go, we'll discuss those later on in the program. i'm sure. but um, they made their way from a level and the next stop is holmes. they've already said this, they've said homes, you wait up, our troops are arriving on their telegram channel. so they're sent the signal and

they're on their way. the moment bent. what does losing, hama end a level mean for this hearing machine? it is a huge thing because like, oh, you know, they fall to that. they've received fault for years to get control over half of the city over eastern level until in 2016 in december. they took it, and now it has been a question of days to take it for the rebels. how about as well? it was a city in which the revolution was very strong in the beginning, i think how my saw the largest protest stuff all syria. but then people got scared because there is a memory of how the regime crushed rebellion and how about 30 years 40 years ago. so everything calm down, but i think it is really a major thing to take this city. that level was under level control before. mm. hm, it's a hugely symbolic city rivals right for exactly that reason, right, historically they endured a lot of crackdowns and the most notable if that was in the eighty's by side washer

as father opposite side, it was called the home of massacre and estimate say 10 to 40000 people were killed in that massacre. so obviously it's extremely pro opposition and now we're already seeing pictures and videos on their telegram channels of celebrations in the city of homo, after the rebels to control, to thank you for the time being. i want to bring in another guess, we're joined now by fall as surgeries, he's a professor of middle eastern politics and international relations at the london school of economics. so i was, it's so good to have you with us. i want to start by asking you the same question i asked our panel here in berlin. how were the rebels able to pull off such a speedy offensive uh, we had known on the side regime was very venerable. that the said bridging was the shadow of it's for myself. what we did not really realize

is that this phase capacity has been degraded considerably in the past 3 years. uh, there is no state capacity a point. wow. and i can sanctions have really exacted a heavy toll on the state. it has popularized most syrians, including the followers that support. as i said, uh for your own viewers, the united nation estimate that 80 percent of the city and people require humidity and a. so really the state does not have capacity point. one point to that israel has been really hammering israel, non stop in the past for years. and in the particular in the past year, it has destroyed units at the wrong in assets. weapons. that's oh, it's has really undermine and we can the military infrastructure. and certainly i would argue that a,

a said major outlines the russians and the iranians and pals by law are preoccupied somewhere else in the ukraine, in the killing fields of gaza, 11 on at. so the reality is what the deal position has been trying to do is really binding its time and really waiting for this particular i mean, moment of opportunity to strike. and of course, at tech, he has provided a great deal of support for the position. because what we're seeing on the battlefield, great organizations of will power while dress was said, i mean the city in ami, the city and soldiers. i'm not guessing even nutrition, because they are really on the verge of starvation. you have the, the ship, you'll have little power, and here you'll have it now. i mean, the end thinkable a year ago would really happen in the next few weeks send. that's few months. that is the opposition takes it o. recapture is not only a po how much,

but even homes and then you know, going all the way to damascus. yes. we'll talk about what the future might look like in a 2nd. i do have a question for god. yeah, because you have been in touch with people on the ground. how do they feel about the rebels taking over a level taking over home? there's a lot of mixed feelings in syria right now in that mostly falls down. what sacked in minority. i mean, 3 is extremely diverse and how people feel usually depends on what community they belong to. and everybody right now is still cautious. watching what is happening, things are moving very fast. there can be power changes any moment in any direction . but in a level i've been in contact with people who were extremely panicked in the 1st few days, not knowing if the regime was going to have another c journal. i feel like we saw the last time, or if there was a threat from extra miss entering the city. but so far we haven't seen many

incidents of that and the level particularly they have been going into for example churches and been sharing the community that you can have. your masses are problem isn't with the civilians. we're not going to take revenge on people. but we're really gonna fight this regime. we don't know if that will still be true later on. going to say, can we trust them right now at that seems to be the case. there have been some incidents on verified, but there have been reports of the men who were killed for their phase, for example, by militants and kurtz. now the situation might be a bit different for people outside of their brown religions because extreme is don't really wants to co exist with them still, no, i would like to add on something to that causes also insecurity and 0 because we all to talking top potters and when they see what's the regime and the rest of the stuff been doing while they have not been doing anything to push best against the

rebel advances. so i have been bombarding your cities and homes of cities and it's it, they have been bombard and christian neighborhoods and level. so there are also people who are a can choose, they thought they are maybe not well off with a resume, but they are kind of protected. they felt surprised by the regime leaving without giving them any warning without offering any security for them. and then coming back with bombarding their places. so that is also a danger that many people are afraid of. and as always, the civilians are the ones caught in the crossfire we have as a waste, we see punishment and revenge on, on the side of the machine. it's really a pattern that refund officer being they normally don't focus on minutes, militants minutes, advances the punish civilians. and this is also why they have been focusing on targeting hospitals. once again, we do have a 1st user question from those watching us on youtube and i encourage you to keep the question coming. but here is the 1st one,

aaron richard wrights. what does hezbollah do in syria? let's look at the rain and influence. fall was, what can you tell us about that? are the reason why the 3 and many syrian and units have folded very quickly because they're most scale and how them 5 since as bottle of life is and the wrong and the leadership a really are no longer celia is rob has really targeted the wrong and leadership assets and basically positions and even the embassy as well as pulled out most of his forces of say, in the past at yeah, because as well as engage it wasn't gave in, in an age of war against israel. so the reason why the o position has been able to make such stunning advances because there are no boots on the ground beyond all how the boots on the ground doesn't matter how much air file you have. unless you really have, i mean,

a scale and determine fights is really basically solve the advance. i think it's a, it's impossible to stop the fighters by air force alone and even even russia itself, russia has pulled out most of its forces to the ukraine in the past few years. it has only an air force, comp engine is small. uh, air force contingent. so without really boots on the ground without the the allies, like because by law and the rocky malaysian and you run your supports and i think the said forces, i'm not really, they don't have this time in that they don't have the motivation. they have been weak and they don't have capacity. and that's why i think if i was i said in damascus to my i would be sleepless. i would realize this could be it. uh and, and it is the, the implications, the consequences of extremely important that just for say, yeah,

but for the entire geopolitical uh, you know, a security architect. yeah. i've been to, i'd like to extend that question to you to what extent has, has a sides group on power been made possible exclusively by the backing that he's gotten from outside powers like iran and russia? well, the international institute for statistics studies in london already in 2013, published the studies saying the syrian army is down to half of its size. and you can be built because it would be a war and which you would need much more a month power, how it works, vd also with huge losses, for the region defections, etc. so i think it was impossible to rebuild. the forces on this is why has spelled out were so important to spell a wish that for us to really be there on the ground. they never wanted originally to go to a level, but they were sent there. and for the people on the ground, i think that was speed. bad experience because this bowler is very hierarchical,

where the termite and business by sieges that were imposed by his bola that were guided by his scholar was stronger than any others. the population in the city of my dia, for example hospice memory. this is for people starve to death because the spa would get this as a task and they do it much more disciplined than this. the very corrupt sir, and i'm a where you could always get your way through. and i think you really, for the vision, it is a problem that they just solve the monopoly of power. they how to they outsourced a to his spell of a also is to, to other forces. and in the past years and vision areas, you'd see a mixture of munitions and i feel like structures. so security was something that was not organized, tucked down in the regime areas, and the longer and this is now coming to home. i saw another country heavily meddling in syria is turkey are to on, has now come out asking for a political solution to the conflict a little late in the game. gods. yes ma'am,

to. that's correct. now erewhon in the past has been a very much on the side of a saw, must go. that has been his stance and the beginning of this conflict, he's always stood by the rebels refuse to have dialogue with us that that was up until last year, when he suddenly had this openness to hold talks with outside and one on one talks with outside which worried the rebels, but uh there don't always assured them said, you know, i'm still going to be back in the rebels and we're seeing that now air to on will say those things. he will say, oh, let's have a political solution in syria. but at the same time, turkey backs opposition, factions, some of them are on direct payroll from turkey. that is the us here in for the army . they're called, and they're working also with a h t, as the group that's leading this offensive. they're not the ones that are carrying out the offensive, but they're, they've joined in as well. so there's direct involvement there in

a way and i'm turkeys calling for negotiations now too, but it might just be too late for assets at this point. yeah, we do have another user question that i'd like to bring in new la, tied to a verde asks if a side actually falls as you just pointed out as a possibility will syria head the way of libya when syria today is in a far worse position compared to libya and a 2011, i'll start with valez and then take it over to bend is that the city and people have a binary approach. sadly and tragically, the press between the rock of this that day and base a said regime in a set day in a dominant position. uh, this is the reality without any clue. so, without an open, without

a forward looking it taller in a position. i think celia is bound to fall into the same situation like 11 and the young men leave you. now the opposition has cool or less to gather against us. they have a major enemy, but was a set falls and a sub has not full in yet. we should don't all the nice thing, right? because it's, it's, uh, you know, the, the reality is there's a long way. but the reality is if the position basically strikes it's a to blow against us that might take on it. is that pay at the shop will most likely own take ownership of see, and regardless of the changes that we have seen in have to how you shop, i'm not really convinced so far. that's a setup fee. so in the dominated group, with all the settings. so yeah, is one of the most you might say um, you know, a many of visit is and, and, and, uh,

community is and at. so that's what i see. yeah. i see that uh without really a strong position. the national so position the political position. we might end up like you're on the run, the revolution of 1970. you might think of how the around the revolution was made by his stomach at the beginning. but the stomachs and the clarks really took ownership of the revolution less than a year after it has happened because they are strong. the commit that beyond what you base it, they have an ideology that's willpower, and they're willing to die for that id is an ideology, and that's said, of course i'm speculating, a great deal, but many say and i know, and i know many so you can decide to you that it and, and they're not really, they don't support us, that they are very anxious and concerned about the future and they have the right to be yeah, ben, to do share that concern. i share that concern of this today because it is a great risk, but i would also like to shed some race of hope. sure,

because we've been talking to so many people and also working with so many people over the years. and the one thing that i really find astonishing is the strength of civilians and all the areas of syria. it's not just the northwest now h t s is very much in our focus. it's also the south where the jews that particularly are located. there has been protests for over here in the province of that uh where the uprising stopped it in the presence of sway to. so i said it's not infirm the place here as well. and it's a completely different composition of population there. austin, h to s areas, repressive. an autocratic as h t s is it is really quick tutorial approach that h to as has been taken. however, protests in it and it's also never ceased to protest against a thought. and at the same time against the h to s, and it's the those yolande. so we should not underestimate the spare is off to 15 years of having been targeted with barrel bonds. was taught to force disappearance and chemical weapons. i think it is amazing. and therefore, i think there is hope,

it's just that though it would make very cafeteria to be constant light. i think we should listen to syrians one to defend future for the country and ask for nivia for many years. it was a talking point between us and syrians as well. and for many years, they would say, well, if only it could be like libya, because the difference to libya was that there was not such an estimate tree in the conflict that was not one for us. having an efforts under hired air force like from the russians bombarding its own population. so this scenario, libby, of course, has nothing to tired of that in comparison, i think the suffering of the syrians keeping us up in power and having all this external support on and before the site is under the same side, has to be created a situation much more terrible for civilians on the front of the positive. yeah. we talk about h t s a lot guys yet. could you walk us through what we know about this group at this point? yeah. so here you have to have your show me. i will go

a bit into their history. you might know them by their previous names. i put the new stuff. so they are uh, they came from uh, isis fighters in 2012. and then a year later, they distance themselves promises and pleasure to lead. you installed car it up so they are extreme. and then later on they went on to also distance them from themselves, from a guide, but they're still classified by the us as a terrorist organization. so there, extremist and in their ideology, and yes, they have changed in recent days, like we said, they have come out and said, we don't want revenge. we want to show mercy. but their expressions are still hyper religious. it does not look like they want to create the secular society was a secular rule, but rather they want to establish a chevy outlaw in syria, which would be problematic, especially for women, for minorities,

for all of the diverse groups that exist within it. yeah. and this, if they are going to keep their word. so there are many concerns that they could actually become more extreme kind of like we saw with the tale bonds. they came and they made all these promises that they would let women go to school and study, and then once they ruled, that'll change quite fast. so we might see a similar situation in syria, and that is the fear. we have another question coming in from our youtube community . david lopez. quail asks, how can russia aid aside, considering is already streamed with the war in the ukraine through these rebels. post a direct threat to russia, in case they take control of syria file was. what do you say? a set back. the assets head back is a big set back for russia and a major setback for your on your own. and russia had been the 2 major allies of us,

in fact, just for your own viewers, rushes military intervention, and so yeah, interest housing in 2015. the time of the war in assets have adopted very much where the asset types of live in 2015 up to 2000 without really the pivot till the 5 pablo, particularly the air force and the leadership. and what happens, the reality is rush, i cannot do much about what's happening and see you need boots on the ground. you'll need paul on part on military forces. russia, in fact, is desperate for boots on the ground in the great, it's relying now on, on, as you know, in those 3 that 10, if he says housing at north korea's, at the end of the day at look what i really hope for, i'm ideal scenario an ideal scenario is that what has happened in the past 2 weeks is really changed the balance of power inside c. a. i mean, good to key any wrong and russia and all the powers really use this particular

moment as a catalyst to really we shape the political scene and see as opposed to allow tool that destroys the country. um, and this the country descends into basically a long will, because that has no choice. now, he has basically the right thing or is on the wall. and if dixie and the wrong, and russia and other powers really come together, they could really force us have to accept the, the inevitable. that is a new political order in which all opposition is that most. and the so you and naturalists, ami, um and other minorities really become an integral part. and for him it's over. he has been empowered for a long time. so this is an ideal situation, but in the mid lea, sadly, one of the lessons we have that is that perhaps you're not in rationality is as important as rationality. so i don't expect as a to basically accept any major change transformation as a political says the system is a to send a proton. another one of our users asks if there is a risk of

a ron's involvement in saving us side by sending regular troops or commandos iranian troops in syria. official troops, jersey. that's happening any time soon. i doubt it because for iran, 0 reason read it was the kind of best chuck. it rang and troops and raining affiliates has been hit very hard and is in, in syria by israel's. i was mentioned that earlier, and russia has always been opening the space. so imagine being with 2 allies and one allows the other to be decimated. that is quite a strange scenario already. and i think with all the losses that iran has said, let's just look at the entire leadership of his fellow that has been killed over the past due and not exclusively and nothing. and but in syria, i think uh they know, whoever they will be sending and hot that higher ranks, they might be sending to syria. they will not last. so i think they will be very

careful what to do about sarah. and i doubt that they will send any important troops to save a sauce. also, he has not been speaking out for a run around was under attack by israel. he didn't lift to think that he didn't make his statements. so it's also a lie. that is not very easy. right? we're talking about a lot of countries meddling in a foreign country. where does the us play into this picture? because, you know, they're always around. yeah, the us backs uh the curves in syria. it's a coalition of different curtis groups called the syrian democratic forces. and together the control about 25 percent of syria and curtains make up around 10 percent of a serious population. so it's actually quite a powerful force. uh and i'm sorry, the us also has a bees in southern syria, a, ty space where there is a coalition that's led by the us. so you, the us also has

a lot of presence in syria, but recently with this offensive, it's kind of taking a step back and said that they're not directly involved. now kurdish forces have had some skirmishes with the syrian army, but they've justified this thing. they're afraid of a kind of it is law, make state coming back, making you come back. so they said it's a self defense, but they might just be taking the opportunity a we can states to claim more territory. yeah, we have another comment war co writes, and i'm assuming he's writing from the us. if america intervenes where the bad guy, if we don't intervene or the bad guy to bend to is the us living up to its responsibility. and in this conflict the u. s. has been really and then the various to teach it way. when it came to sera and particularly on the trump. we saw there defends movements he did when he was in presidency the last time. for example,

at one point he been part of this year and f was and that was one of the things you never did anything against or pro with them again. but then he also said he withdrawal us troops, and actually he pulled out quite a number of us troops already that were supporting the s t s and the kurdish areas . this is a very mixed method. she has been sending and so i think here and now we 1st of all face to face of transition from one government to to the other in the u. s. a. that will be quite a weak point. and we're trying to, it's very difficult to follow. see whether he will have a strategy altogether for the middle east, as well as for syria. yeah. if i was, where do you see syria on donald trump's list of priorities to be just said? if you flip notes about the us and see absolutely the, the big points, the overarching, underlying idea, the us,

the us is conflicted about see on the one hand they have the, impose some of the, most of the essential is that gains as addressing. they don't, like i said it was about on all the americans are very anxious about tell you that the 3 m. hi at the here is basically called so that it has organization. as you know about the united states and britain, they're very anxious about because they don't think that of them or how much the giuliani has changed his skin or these ideology or his views. but at the same time here is the, the united states is also the live that, that what has happened in the past few days is a major setback quote, you wrong ad for rush. and that's exactly what anthony blinked and said the few days ago, it does a great deal about the use that these acropolis and the research on trauma trump smote to about you. yeah, he made it very clear which tells you a great deal about these races. and you said there was nothing in c a except that's

and dust the desk and dust. and he pushed a huh. to pull out the $500.00 american forces from syria and it was an asia basically in fighting between himself and his defense minister, which he resigned as a result of that. so i don't expect any major role of the americans because they americans have so much on that plate as you know, in gaza at your, on a china of ukraine. what have you really at the end of the day, what we're going to see is here in the next few days, next you as the battlefield, the battle field, the balance of power on the battlefield will be term. and basically the political settlement that is the balance of biology. and again, to come back to the fact it seems to me that the odds are against i said at this stage, the momentum is with the opposition. uh, they have the when you know, add to that back unless, unless, you know something happened,

which i doubt very much as to iranian as to your on standing forces to see even if they want to. israel has made it very clear that they will basically threw down any kind of, in fact one a 11 or 2 iranian plays tried to land in the bus just 2 days ago to that few days ago. the is riley, air force basically prevented them from doing so, and they turned back to you on at the end of the day. and now it seems to me the only the only force that would help to yeah, the rocky forces, the rocky militiamen, the popular mobilization of forces. but even then, i don't think it, it would be enough to change the balance of power on the battlefield of the states does. yeah. and the lights that are very us is aside, falls could courage. finally turned or autonomy is region into the fact old country and gain legitimacy. you showed us them.