goals listed to use the dream force. yeah. and the on the for the future feeling about what's going on in the industry. instead of being discussed across the continent. d, the news africa every friday on the w. the what took the past 2 piece for your brain looked like the debate over possible scenarios for ending the war is heating up as president elect donald trump prepares to take office in washington. he has failed to end. the war quickly refrain is under heavy pressure from intense waves of russian attacks, despite promises of mere weapons from germany. and the west trumps designated special envoy for ukraine general keeps catalogs as a plan to bring ukraine and russia to the negotiating table, but will continue even considering presidents the landscape may have to pay a high price for peace,

especially if he wants to get the nato protection he hopes works by temporarily giving up some territories. on to the point, we ask war and peace, a deal with food teams at the expense of ukraine. the welcome to this week. to the point, i'm probably going to get us. it's good to have you with us. let's meet today's guests off how you last is an expert on defense and security policy, military operations and arms control with the european council on foreign relations . from us v guard is a journalist and military blogger, specialized in defense and security policy, and determine when this vast, here in berlin. and ma'am, you don't is our military analyst with kings college london joining us in from the city of unit 12. you're welcome. thank you. for being here today to lunch, i'd like us with you november just saw the worst losses for ukraine since 2022.

what is the current state of the war? well, the war, some people believe and say ukraine is in a position with a city or rating by today. obviously, of a number of weapons, a number of ammunition delivered is not enough. but what's worse is that ukraine is running into problems. was personnel a not enough soldiers, high attrition, rather high, high losses, which mean in the end? it's a question of time to the current situation. if it goes on like this, whether ukraine can keep pen told to get the position despite the gains from the russian military. marina, the situation isn't good for russia either. why is the war costing so many lives into the russian military? well,

the problem is here is that the russians use attrition is their strategy. and obviously it is very manpower intensive. they have high losses, that'd be sad. they don't have the same problem that ukraine has and these high losses, we don't know the exact number. and there are some estimates of how many casualties the russians have suffered, the russian and the luxury can absorb that. i think the problem here is not so much ukraine, but now the war of being revived in syria and the possible necessity to deploy some of the russian troops to syria. and so that they why am i here is how do you best solve this problem? in terms of, if you over at lee deploy troops to syria, to lead the syrian arab armies sold core, it will, obviously, we can, the russian position in ukraine and russia is now having the upper hand in ukraine

. it needs to concludes that ukrainian competing before it's can over stretch its capabilities and the portable forces to syria. that's why we're seeing increased use of air power similar to what we have seen in october to 1015 when the russians andrews a syrian civil war. and so i think that is more of a day lamb, or rather than the lack of a person now, per se, was a high last as the russian, the suffering. and you cream. that's one of the reasons why many say there is a defining moment for the one you claim going on right now. uh if i am it, those developments there is suddenly a lot of talk about a potential piece deal for ukraine at this moment. why do you think that is? i mean, 1st of all it's, it's great to see, talk about past what suggest piece and ukraine, but what is a bit, although is that on a nightly basis we see talk about a path to ukraine, surrender in russian television. so there's a gap in, in perception, this, how audiences around the world look at this conflict. but we're moving in a, into

a direction that's been described by the cold panelists where, where both sides are suffering tremendously, where ukraine us on is it off pressure and where that's not really prospect. and we saw this coming out of the native for minutes. the summit of a substantial increase in west a ministry, a to ukraine, even though that would be necessary to put you quite in a, in a better negotiating position. but that is not on the horizon at the moment. and told the crating leadership, others are thinking about what potential pathways that could be to once a, a seizing office tendencies and potentially a piece later on. and certainly many are looking at one specific date, january 20th, when donald trump will take office, we tired us general keeps kellogg is set to become trumps, special envoy for ukraine and russia at 80 years old. he liked the president elect ends to quickly end. the russian war against ukraine and bring both sides. so the goal shading table. here's what we know about the piece planned by keys,

kellogg drums, designated special envoy for ukraine and russia. the us would supply more weapons to keep, to deter further russian advances or future attacks, but that aid would only be provided if your crane is willing to negotiate the goal, being a peace agreement with security guarantees. russia could receive guarantees that ukraine will not become a needle member for years to come. the plan calls for the freezing of front lines and the creation of a demilitarized zone under russian leadership in eastern ukraine. ukraine would not have to officially give up occupied territories, but their status would need to be decided through negotiations, not armed conflict. presidents the landscape has expressed a surprising willingness to compromise. if we want to stop the hold stage of the war on big umbrella, we should take on the nato umbrella to the territory of the training that we have

under our control show. a di me, that's what we need to do fast. and then you can come get back the other part of which territory diplomatically the trump kellogg plan, a chance for peace or has ukraine already lost a fail you were talking about ukraine, surrendering before velocities. landscape had always said that he was not willing to concede any part of its territory to rush out. what do you make of those latest statements where it appears that though, as he could, in fact give up some part of the territory to achieve peace, to be sure, russia's aiming at your credit surrender. i think nobody in the west is anything that cannot at least the persons and in responsible political positions. but to your question, um, i think that reflects a reality that the way you need to ship is recognizing that through military force it will be very difficult. particular because there is no prospect of the increase minutes rate at this point in time to recapture to the brake pulse occupied

territories. and that potential path to regaining them as diplomatic rosalyn military. that is something that many would wish for it to us. the plan that we're seeing now could for see freezing the front lines roughly as they are today. do think that's realistic to that work. i'm the sort about this request to move freezing. the front lines might have different meaning fazio creighton, and then follow the russians. and if landscape formally says, well, we could accept it's not giving up ukrainian territory, which he cannot do by, by, of the constitution. so formally, not giving it up, but agreeing that it's under foreign control under russian control. i'm not sure whether this works because i'm not sure how the russians will interpret that says, this is part of what like the old german model during the cold war. when

west germany, in a way, had still moved still about thinking about eastern germany, but was basically part of germany that all turned out differently. how to 1999. but that was a similar construct and was one main difference. there was no hot war. yeah. and now we have to know we have ok more and there is another very important sticking point in those potential negotiations. money not words, not actions is what we've seen when it comes to ukraine. joining nato. we were hearing presidents a landscape talking about a plan under the umbrella of nato for protecting the territory. what could be alliance really be willing to provide you a crane and a potential piece deal as well? that's a very good question. the 1st i'd like to return briefly is a buffer zone and a so we refer it from the crate in perspective. it's already

a complicated matter to consider the from the russian perspective, at least of what the russian media has been conveying so far is that they are not going to go for another minutes agreement because it doesn't work. the point here, especially in light of what is happening in syria, the russians are saying, now you see what happens if you freeze conflicts. if you freeze wars it is on with him for a re and will still it is will eventually breakout. and so i'm not sure how far as the russians are willing to go in terms of freezing and creating a buffer zone, they are because of this distrust towards the west end of the western will still, it is interpreted from the russian point of view. and as far as what nato can do now, one part of the few crate. joining me the way we have to think about the legal issues concerning the as a whole process of joining nato,

you will have to be offered that membership action plan. and for that, you also have to fulfill some specific conditions which you create in its present state that doesn't fulfill. therefore, they need those own statues would have to be changed in order for this scenario to be implemented on the one hand. and on the other hand, this could create a for us, so the end, if you crane or part of you creating joints, nato, a, what would it mean for other potential countries that are seeking legal membership on the one hand, on the other hand, what is need a willing to deploy it to ukraine in order to wanted to work this buffer zone in order to ensure that if there was a cease fire, that both sides keep the seas fire. and that is a big question. and of course, from the russian perspective, this will become then station that soldiers right on rushes more and

years in ukraine and possibly long range weapon systems operated by major personnel. so i see if i think we briefly lost money another, but she was talking about what could be considered red lines for vladimir putin at the contrary actually to what he is demanding to us. there are also red lines here in europe, and here in germany that we've seen crossed time and time again. ukraine joining nato was something germany has been hesitant to accept or to support so far. do you see that changing in case there are these negotiations taken? no, i don't see this type of thing at the moment to the impression is that the drum and the is looking pretty straightforward at the pre condition that the concrete joining nato is not actually in a war engaged somewhere. it's like,

you don't get insurance when you're all is, is already burning. so this won't work, i think. and the other point, which makes me very, very skeptical about this trump color plan is, this would mean nato troops replying right as, as maureen already mentioned, right on, on the russian border and said something put in, always wanted to avoid. in fact, that's why he went to ward. so why would you offer him? why do you even expect him to agree to to a ceasefire? which means you will have those very natal presence who despise. that's one important question and more important aspect. the other is the fact that there have to be consequences in the best of cases for a country and bathing another too much. despite the fact that this would cause a putting to have, for example, nato troops right on his border. it would also be,

let's say, light exit from the point of view of consequences. but what would that mean for the european security architecture? russia learning the less than that, invading another country will not necessarily mean any type of very heart punishment. i think that that goes to the core of the, of the dilemma that policy makers in europe, face trading, short term risks associated with ukraine's made a membership for a tom example with long term risks that are associated with, with not inviting ukraine into the lines or offering other kinds of security guarantees to it. so we wouldn't have a frozen somewhat semi hot conflict going on in europe that click port of freight to other countries, moldova comes to mind. and so if we don't solve this problem from european perspective, then we'll have to face a much bigger problem, i think over the medium for long term. and that russia has continued interest in, in meddling in european affairs. and one more tool to do that,

to ukraine. when we talk about your brain, we also can't forget the people of the crane and the military. specifically marina . what does it mean if we see russia over, sorry, ukraine, seating territory to russia, something that has been a no go for a large part of the ukrainian population and also for the ukrainian military. with that, put an end to a lot of our zalinski as the country's leader to think well, that's a very good question because we need to look at a president savanski is reading so especially since may of this year. because um, obviously ukraine should have had the elections and from my understanding and flooring, also the queen in media um his readings have full and he has full in popularity, especially if you compare it to a general level. there is a lovely and so i have this and sation that the ukranian people are becoming tire, then we're seeing it also in terms of the recruitment,

the military recruitment that is not working out as planned. so it seems that they are much more willing to accept and, and to the conflict, whatever it looks like, just to stop this war and just stop whatever is going on in your grant. because it's not just the more that's polygons of people, but also the economic situation and ukraine's economy is completely destroyed. and so yes, i think should there be any sort of ceasefire. even the western allies would probably sort pressure on ukraine to hold general elections, to hold presidential elections, and for people to choose who's there. a next leader will be adaptable, certainly determines a furnace, or course of where ukraine will land. politically. it seems as though none of you really think this piece plan could be very promising, despite the fact that donald trump has the valid to end the world very quickly.

what happens if there is no peace plan and no agreement in the next few months to me? well, the cause of all will go on that will be a terrible prize you credit will have to pay unless the europeans might be willing and might be able to step in with more weapons, more ammunition. obviously they can't replace the people who are the soldiers, but at least give the opinions, try to replenish ukrainian stocks that might be a better chance. and still we're talking about what's about the european long range weapons. so taurus, again, comes to mind which drum and chancellor again repeatedly says he won't deliver. ok. so we'll see what happens after the drum and the elections in february. so that might change into things,

but i'm not sure that the 4th term holds. this war broke out. it seems as though the european nato. alice don't really have a plan. what actually, if the german transfer just announced 650000000 euros and additional age to ukraine . the additional miller, excuse me, that has been pledged before. you mentioned that again when he was in kiff. right. okay. but that they haven't been delivered so far, so good that has been planned, autopay. okay. but he announced that it will be delivered now that means an additional i will not additional for a former promise military aid. however, these amounts are not as high as we saw in, in, in other parts or episodes of this war. do you think the politicians are still doing in the state that everyone has been signaling from the beginning that is just giving dribs and drags and help a to a crane and that this will continue until trump takes off or i think of well the material but the reality is that we haven't put it up european defense industry to

the degree that we could now significantly increase what we provide to ukraine and back feeling all at one stop pulse. that is a decision that we should have taken to 2 and a half years ago, and we didn't. if we take that decision now and, and that's some hints that the defense ministry, the ministry focused on. we can say, let's take this issue quite seriously. and then it would still take a couple of months if not years for a to arrive. so this is a very precarious situation, coupled with the political instability that we have in germany because of electrons and friends because of collapse and coordination of government. and in the united states, with the transition to the donald trump administration, this is a really tough situation for ukraine. and i hardly see how, how this will improve over the short term. we're going to briefly take a look at the situation in russia because the word rimming, if economic boom is starting to show its negative sides, the rubel has recently plummeted. labor shortages are becoming more acute and inflation is on the rise. moscow supermarkets may be full,

but people are feeling the effects of rising inflation. at the end of november, the ruble failed to its lowest level against the us dollar since the beginning of the war. the amount that we pay, i mean from that we buy is in us dollars. so we are really suffering because of the fact of what we used to pay out of cost a certain physical disease, high it by 45 percent know pretty 5 to 30 percent votes, which in the food prices have risen. that's just how it is. what can you do? we have no choice. we can choose the times we live in diet. i choose to live with a sense of ease and joy. does it look good? so far, many russians have benefit from the war economy, which has created jobs, especially in the defense industry. but this economic stimulus is now reaching its limits. what's more, lower oil prices, new sanctions, and even higher inflation could push shot into a recession. the punch in would then find it more difficult to finance

a conflict that is expected to cost more and more. how long can russia afford this war? we certainly had that question before. also in the show. it's been the 1000 days of war and we've heard a 1000 wrong predictions about what would happen to russia, marina. is there any reason to believe the economy could limit russia's performance on the ground as well? economy is the central, let's say, mechanism here in order to enable military operations because you have to finance them. but linking it back to the previous segment about nathan, needles capability in european defense industry. yes, this is going to be difficult for russia and i'm not sure if it's a temporary issue. was a full approval. it wasn't the central bank will be able to contain this or how

this will it will, it remains to be seen. there are some predictions that the russian economy will be able to sustain the war for at least an officer, 2 years. now let's consider the european defense industry and how this plays out. can europe, kim nato members sustained a support in ukraine for the next couple of years? and some of the problems have already been mentioned. i would like to also add the supply chain crisis and the growing prices for all materials. so for you in europe, can defense companies they can produce, but they cannot produce the williams that say the russians on north koreans can produce despite all the sanctions. yeah. and so the question here becomes, can we, even if with rushes economy now in the klein, can european nato members compete with russia while we are making themselves and

also supporting ukraine at the same time? and i think that should be considered from this angle in order to make a proper assessment assessment that is difficult and has been from the beginning uh to us, if there is no, you know, concise action by then you are p and nato countries. is there any way to still punish rush out through the sanctions to somehow limit their weapons and it hasn't worked so far? is the word so far? and the point is, well, how far can you go? how far are you willing to go? quite obviously, despite the sanctions, russia is delivering all is selling oil, it's selling gas. so the question is, why does it not work? and what codes are europeans do? if you see the federal fleet of, of tankers alone in the baltic, the, you might task. why, why to european countries not take action on bad?

that might be reasons i, i could imagine if it, what would be the other way around the russians would have great ideas on environmental reasons or whatever, to control these slates. so your opinions are not doing this fault for whatever reason. we had obviously a stand off between a russian tanker and the drum and how that cup the last week where the russians just fired not directly at the helicopter but took all um pre conditions to scary it off. so how far of you can swing to bill? that's the question. it has been from the beginning. we have time for one more question for you. do you think, considering what we just talked about, that we are in a tipping point for you cream, or is this just one of many moments where people thought there was change coming?

and nothing really made a big difference. fundamentally, it's really difficult to run counter scenarios and that goal for the sanctions issue as well. if we haven't implemented sanctions on russian defense industry on imports for microprocessors, for example, what the russians have been able to produce many more missiles than they're currently using. and you're against a crane. and so there's a very cold, difficult question to sort of conceptually grasp with. and i think it's 22, draw final conclusions. one of to wait, once again. thank you so much. all 3 of you for your analysis. and of course, thank you for watching. remember, you can always, we watch this show on our youtube channel, just look forward to the news and the latest to the point episode. i thought you didn't get us here in berlin until next time. take care by the

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