the present feelings about what's going on in the story. instead of being discussed across the continent, dw news africa every friday on dw, the what took the past 2 piece for your brain looked like the debate over possible scenarios for ending the war is heating up. as president elect donald trump prepares to take office in washington, he has vowed to end the war quickly. crane is under heavy pressure from intense waves of russian attacks, despite promises of mere weapons from germany. and the west trumps designated special envoy for ukraine general keeps calendar as a plan to bring ukraine and russia to the negotiating table. but what content even considering precedence lensky may have to pay a high price for peace, especially if he wants to get the nato protection he hopes works by temporarily giving up some territories. on to the point,

we ask war and peace. a deal with food team at the expense of ukraine. the welcome to this week. to the point, i'm probably going to get us. it's good to have you with us. let's meet today's guests across how you last is an expert on defense and security policy, military operations and arms control with the european council on foreign relations . who must be guard is a journalist and military blogger, specialized in defense and security policy, and determined on this vast here in berlin. and monday, now you don't, is a militarily analyst with kings college london joining us and from the city of munich 12, you're welcome. and thank you for being here today to watch. i'd like to start with you november just saw the worst losses for you crane since 2022 of what is the

current state of the war? well, the war, some people even say ukraine is in a position with a city or rating by a today. obviously, of a number of weapons, a number of ammunition delivered is not enough, but what's worse is that ukraine is running into problems. was personnel, not enough soldiers, high attrition rate, the higher high losses, which mean m b? and it's a question of time that the current situation, if it goes on like this, whether ukraine can keep and how to get the position. despite the gains from the russian military, marina, the situation isn't good for russia either. why is the war costing so many lives into the russian military? well, the problem is, here is that the russians use attrition is their strategy. and obviously it is very

manpower intensive. they have high losses, that being sad, they don't have the same problem that ukraine has. and these high losses, we don't know the exact number. and there are some estimates of how many casualties the russians have suffered. the russian no, a treat can absorb it. i think the problem here is not so much ukraine, but now the war of being revived in syria and the possible necessity to deploy some of the russian troops to syria. and so that they why am i here is how do you best solve this problem? in terms of, if you over at lee, the poor troops to syria, to lead the syrian arrow of armies sold core, or it will, obviously, we can, the russian position in ukraine and russia is now having the upper hand in ukraine that needs to concludes the ukranian campaign before it's can over stretch its

capabilities and the portable forces to syria. that's why we're seeing an increased use of air power similar to what we have seen in october to 1015 when the russians enter the syrian civil war. and so i think that is more of a day alarm, or rather than the lack of a person now, per se, was a high last as the russian, the suffering. and you cream. that's one of the reasons why many say there is a defining moment for the one ukraine going on right now. but if i am in those developments, there is suddenly a lot of talk about a potential piece deal for ukraine at this moment. why do you think that is? i mean, 1st of all it's, it's great to see, talk about past what suggest piece and ukraine, but what is a bit, although is that on a nightly basis we see talk about a path to ukraine, surrender in russian television. so there's a gap in, in perception, this, how audiences around the world look at this conflict. but we're moving in a, into a direction that's been described by the co panelists where,

where both sides are suffering tremendously, where ukraine us on is enough pressure and where that's not really prospect. and we saw this coming out of the native foreign minister summit of a substantial increase in western ministry, a to ukraine. even though that would be necessary to put you quite in a, in a better negotiating position. but that is not on the horizon at the moment. and so we'll do quite a leadership. others are thinking about what potential pathways that could be towards a seizing office tendencies and potentially a piece later on. and certainly many are looking at one specific date, january 20th, when donald trump will take office, we tired us general keeps kellogg is set to become trumps, special envoy for ukraine and russia at 80 years old. he liked the president elect aims to quickly end. the russian war against ukraine and bring both sides to the negotiated table. here's what we know about the piece planned by keys, kellogg drums, designated special envoy for ukraine and russia. the us would supply more weapons

to keep, to deter further russian advances or future attacks. but that aid would only be provided if your crane is willing to negotiate the goal, being a peace agreement with security guarantees. russia could receive guarantees that ukraine will not become a natal member for years to come. the plan calls for the freezing of front lines and the creation of a demilitarized zone under russian leadership in eastern ukraine. ukraine would not have to officially give up occupied territories, but their status would need to be decided through negotiations, not armed conflict. presidents the landscape has expressed a surprising willingness to compromise. if we want to stop the hold stage of the war on big umbrella, we should take on the nato umbrella to the territory of ukraine that we have under our control show a diving. that's what we need to do fast, and then you can,

you can get back to the other part of which territory diplomatically the trump kellogg plan, a chance for peace, or has ukraine already lost a file. you were talking about ukraine, surrendering before of alarm res lensky. had always said that he was not willing to concede any part of its territory to rush out. what do you make of those latest statements where it appears to go as he could in fact, give up some part of the territory to achieve peace, to be sure, russia's aiming at your credit surrender. i think nobody in the west is estimating that that cannot at least the persons and in responsible political positions. but uh for your question. um, i think that reflects a reality that the way they need to ship is recognizing that through military force it will be very difficult for particular because there is no prospect of the increase minutes rate at this point in time to recapture, to liberate those occupied territories. and that a potential path to regaining them is diplomatic rosalyn military. and that is

something that many would wish for it to us. the plan that we're seeing now could for see freezing the front lines roughly as they are today. do think that's realistic, could that work? i'm not sure about this request to move freezing. the front lines might have different meaning fazio creighton and then follow the russians. and if landscape formally says, well, we could accept it's not giving up ukrainian territory, which he cannot do by the constitution. so formally, not giving it up, but agreeing that it's under foreign control under russian control. i'm not sure whether this works because i'm not sure how the russians will interpret that says, this is part of what like the, the old german model during the cold war. when west germany, in a way, had still moved still about thinking about eastern germany,

but was basically the bottom of germany that all turned out differently. how to 1989. but that was a similar construct and was one main difference. there was no hot war. yeah. and now we have to know we have a lot more and there is another very important sticking point in those potential negotiations might not words, not actions is what we've seen when it comes to ukraine. joining nato, we were hearing presidents of landscape talking about a plan under the umbrella of nato for protecting the territory. what could be alliance really be willing to provide you a crane and a potential piece deal as well? that's a very good question. first, i'd like to return briefly to the buffer zone and so we refer it from the cranium perspective. it's already a complicated matter to consider the, from the russian perspective, at least of what the russian media has been conveying so far is that they are not

going to go for. and those are the means agreement because it doesn't work. the point here, especially in light of what is happening in syria, the russians are saying, now you see what happens if you freeze conflicts. if you freeze wars, it is only temporary and will still it is will eventually breakout. and so i'm not sure how far as the russians are willing to go in terms of freezing and creating a buffer zone, they are because of this distrust towards the west end of the western facility is interpreted from the russian point of view. and as far as what nato can do, now, one far the few crate. joining me the way we have to think about the legal issues concerning the as a whole process of joining nato, you will have to be offered that membership action plan. and for that,

you also have to fulfill some specific conditions which you create in its present state that doesn't fulfill. therefore, they need those own statues would have to be changed in order for this scenario to be implemented on the one hand. and on the other hand, this could create a for us, so then ukraine or part of you create and joints nato. what would it mean for other potential countries that are seeking legal membership on the one hand, on the other hand, what is need a willing to deploy to ukraine in order to monitor or this buffer zone in order to ensure that if there is a cease fire that both sides keep the seas fire and that is a big question. and of course, from the russian perspective, this will become them stationed as soldiers. right on rushes more in years in ukraine and possibly long range weapon systems operated by major

personnel. so i see if i think we briefly lost medina there, but she was talking about what could be considered red lines for vladimir putin at the country actually to what he is demanding to us. there are also red lines here in europe, and here in germany that we've seen cross time and time again. ukraine joining nato was something germany has been hesitant to accept or to support so far. do you see that changing in case there are these negotiations taken? no, i don't see those. okay, looking at the moment of the impression is that the company is looking pretty straightforward at the precondition bad. the concrete, joining nato is not actually in a war engaged somewhere. it's like, you don't get insurance when you're all is, is already burning. so this won't work,

i think. and the other point, which makes me very, very skeptical about this trump kind of plan is, this would mean nato troops deploying right as, as marina already mentioned, right. on, on the russian border and said something put in, always wanted to avoid. in fact, that's why you went to ward. so why would you offer him? why do you even expect him to agree to to a ceasefire? which means you will have this and very ne, to present to despise. that's one important question and more important aspect. the other is the fact that there have to be consequences in the best of cases for a country and bathing another 2 months. despite the fact that this would cause a putting to have, for example, nato troops right on his border. it would also be, let's say, light exit from the point of view of consequences. but what would that mean for the

european security architecture? russia learning the less than that, invading another country, will not necessarily mean any type of very heart punishment. i think that that goes to the core of the, of the dilemma that policy makers in europe, face trading, short term risks associated with ukraine's made a membership for a tom example with long term risks that are associated with, with not inviting ukraine into the lines or offering other kinds of security guarantees to it. so we wouldn't have a frozen somewhat semi hot conflict going on in europe that click port of freight to other countries, moldova comes to mind. and so if we don't solve this problem from european perspective, then we'll have to face a much bigger problem. i think over the medium for long term that russia has continued interest and meddling in european affairs. and one more tool to do that for ukraine. when we talk about your brain, we also can't forget the people of the crane and the military. specifically marina

. what does it mean if we see russia over sort of ukraine seating territory to russia, something that has been a no go for a large part of the ukrainian population and also for the ukrainian military. with that, put an end to a lot of our zalinski as the countries leader to think well, that's a very good question because we need to look at a president of the landscape ratings, especially since may of this year. because um, obviously ukraine should have had the elections and from my understanding and flooring also has the queen in media um his readings have full and he has full in popularity, especially if you compare it to a general level. there is a lovely and so i have this and sation that the ukranian people are becoming tire, then we're seeing it also in terms of the recruitment, the military recruitment that is not working out as planned. so it seems that they

are much more willing to accept and, and to the conflict, whatever it looks like, just to stop this war and just stop whatever is going on in your grant. because it's not just the more that's polygons of people, but also the economic situation and ukraine's economy is completely destroyed. and so yes, i think should there be any sort of ceasefire. even the western allies would probably sort pressure on ukraine to hold general elections, to hold presidential elections. and for people to choose who they are in next, leader will be adaptable, certainly determines a furnace, or course of where ukraine will land. politically. it seems as though none of you really think this piece plan could be very promising, despite the fact that donald trump has allowed to end the world very quickly. what happens if there is no peace plan and no agreement in the next few months to me?

well, because the wall will go on that will be a terrible prize you credit will have to pay unless the europeans might be willing and might be able to step in with more weapons, more ammunition. obviously they can't replace the people who are the soldiers, but at least if they are peons tried to replenish ukrainian stocks, that might be a better chance. and still we are talking about what's about the european long range weapons. so taurus, again, comes to mind which drummond tron slower, but again, repeatedly says he won't deliver, right? so we'll see what happens after the drum and electrons in february. so that might change that to things, but i'm not sure that the fault term holds us. war broke out. it seems as though

the european nato. alice don't really have a plan. well, actually it's the german transfer just announced 650000000 euros and additional age to ukraine. that's the additional miller excuse me. that has been pledge before you mentioned that again when he was in kiff. all right. okay. but that they haven't been delivered so far so that has been pledged autopay. okay. but he announced that it will be delivered now that means an additional i will not additional for a former promise military aid. however, these amounts are not as high as we saw in, in, in other parts or episodes of this war. do you think the politicians are still doing a mistake that everyone has been signaling from the beginning that is just giving dribs and drags and help a to a crane and that this will continue until trump takes off? or i think, well, the material a reality is that we haven't built up european defense industry to the degree that we could now significantly increase what we provide to ukraine and back funding all

at one stop pulse. that is a decision that we should have taken to 2 and a half years ago and we didn't. if we take that decision now, and now some hints that the defense ministry, the ministry, economic affairs, take this issue quite seriously. and then it would still take a couple of months if not years for a to arrive. so this is a very precarious situation, coupled with the political instability that we have in germany because of electrons and friends because of collapse and coordination, government, and in the united states with the transition to the donald trump administration. this is a really tough situation for ukraine, and i hardly see how, how this will improve over the short term. we're going to briefly take a look at the situation in russia because the word rimming of economic boom is starting to show its negative sides. the rubel has recently plummeted, labor shortages are becoming more acute and inflation is on the rise. moscow supermarkets may be full, but people are feeling the effects of rising inflation. at the end of november and

the rubel failed to its lowest level against the us dollar since the beginning of the war. the amount that we pay, i mean from that we buy is in us dollars. so we are really suffering because of the fact of what we used to pay out of costs. a set of biscuits is these higher by 45 percent now, pretty 5 to 30 percent for too much. prices have risen. that's just how it is. what can you do? we have no choice. we can choose the times we live in diet. i choose to live with a sense of ease and joy. does it look good? so far, many russians have benefit from the war economy, which has created jobs, especially in the defense industry. but this economic stimulus is now reaching its limits. what's more, lower oil prices, new sanctions, and even higher inflation could push shot into a recession. the put in would then find it more difficult to finance a conflict that is expected to cost more and more. how long can russia

afford this war? we certainly had that question before. also in the show. it's been a 1000 days of war and we've heard a 1000 wrong predictions about what would happen to russia. maybe not. is there any reason to believe the economy could limit russia's performance on the ground as well? economy is the central, let's say, mechanism here in order to enable military operations because you have to finance them. but linking it back to the previous segment about nato and nato's capability in european defense industry. yes, this is going to be difficult for russia and i'm not sure if it's a temporary issue. was a full approval. it wasn't the central bank will be able to contain this or how this will ago. it remains to be seen. there are some predictions that the russian

economy will be able to sustain the war for at least an officer, 2 years. now let's consider the european defense industry and how this plays out. can europe, him, needle members sustained a support in ukraine for the next couple of years? and some of the problems have already been mentioned. i would like to also add the supply chain crisis and the growing prices for all materials. so for you, the european defense companies they can produce, but they cannot produce the williams that say the russians, the lowest koreans can produce despite all the sanctions. yeah. and so the question here becomes, can we, even it was rushed as economy? now in the klein, can european nato members compete with russia while we are making themselves and also supporting ukraine at the same time?

and i think that should be considered from this angle in order to make a proper assessment assessment that is difficult and has been from the beginning to us if there is no. so, you know, cause a concise action by then it, you are p of nato countries. is there any way to still punish rush out through the sanctions to somehow limit their weapons and it hasn't worked so far has worked so far. and the point is, well, how far can you go, how far are you willing to go? quite obviously, despite the sanctions, russia is delivering all is selling oil. it's selling gas. so the question is, why does not work? and what codes are europeans do? if you see the federal fleet of, of tankers alone in the baltic, the, you, my task, why, why to europe and countries not take action on that?

that might be reasons i, i could imagine if it, what would be the other way around the russians would have great ideas on environmental reasons or whatever, to control these slates. but your opinions are not doing this fall for whatever reason. we had obviously a stand off between a russian tanker and the drum and how that cup the last week where the russians just fired. not directly up alley cup to but took all um pre conditions to scary and off. so how far of you can swing to bill? that's the question. it has been from the beginning. we have time for one more question for you. do you think, considering what we just talked about, that we are in a tipping point for you cream, or is this just one of many moments where people thought there was change coming? and nothing really made a big difference. fundamentally,

it's really difficult to run counter scenarios and that goal for the sanctions issue as well. if we haven't implemented sanctions on russian defense industry on imports for michael so, so sorry, example, what the russians have been able to produce many more missiles than they are currently using. and again, so crane. and so this is a very good, difficult question to sort of conceptually grasp with, and i think it's 22 draw final conclusions. we'll have to wait once again. thank you so much. all 3 of you for your analysis. and of course, thank you for watching. remember, you can always, we watch this show on our youtube channel, just look forward to you don't use and the latest to the point to have this. i thought, you know, get us here in berlin until next time. take care by the

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