the really indeed the snow on youtube. what took the past 2 piece for your brain looked like the debate over possible scenarios for ending the war is heating up as president elect donald trump prepares to take office in washington. he has vowed to end the war quickly. crane is under heavy pressure from intense waves of russian attacks, despite promises of mere weapons from germany. and the west trumps designated special envoy for ukraine general keeps catalogs as a plan to bring ukraine and russia to the negotiating table. but will continue even considering presidents of lensky may have to pay a high price for peace, especially if he wants to get the nato protection. he hopes works by temporarily giving up some territories. on to the point we ask war and peace. a deal with qu,

team at the expense of ukraine. the welcome to this week, to the point, i'm probably going to get us. it's good to have you with us. let's meet today's guests across how you last is an expert on defense and security policy, military operations and arms control with the european council on foreign relations . who must be guard is a journalist and military blogger, specialized in defense and security policy, and the german windows vast. here in berlin, and monday, now you don't, is our military analyst with kings college london joining us and from the city of munich 12, you're welcome. and thank you for being here today to lunch. i'd like to start with you in november just saw the worst losses for you crane since 2022. what is the

current state of the war? well, the war, some people even say ukraine is in a position with the city, are rating by of today. obviously, of a number of weapons, a number of ammunition delivered is not enough, but what's worse is that ukraine is running into problems. was personnel not enough soldiers, high attrition rate or higher high losses? which mean in the end? it's a question of time. the, the current situation, if it goes on like this, whether ukraine can keep and hold to its position. despite the gains from the russian military, marina, the situation isn't good for russia either. why is the war costing so many lives into the russian military? well, the problem is, here is that the russians use attrition is their strategy. and obviously it is very

manpower intensive. they have high losses, that being sad, they don't have the same problem that ukraine has. and these high losses, we don't know the exact number. and there are some estimates of how many casualties the russians have suffered. the russian, the luxury can absorb. beth, i think the problem here is not so much you crane, but now the war of being revived in syria and the possible necessity to deploy some of the russian troops to syria. and so that they, why am i here is how do you best solve this problem? in terms of, if you over at lee, the poor troops to syria, to lead the syrian arrow of armies sold core, it will, obviously, we can, the russian position in ukraine and russia is now having the upper hand in ukraine that needs to concludes that ukrainian competing before it's can over stretch its

capabilities and the portable forces to syria is that's why we're seeing increased use of air power similar to what we have seen in october to 1015 when the russians andrews the syrian civil war. and so i think that is more of a day alarm, or rather than the lack of a person now, per se, was a high last as the russian, the suffering. and you cream. that's one of the reasons why many say there is a defining moment for the one you claim going on right now. uh if i am it, those developments there is suddenly a lot of talk about a potential piece deal for ukraine at this moment. why do you think that is? i mean, 1st of all it's, it's great to see, talk about past what suggest piece and ukraine, but what is a bit, although is that on a nightly basis we see talk about a path to ukraine, surrender in russian television. so there's a gap in, in perception, this, how audiences around the world look at this conflict. but we're moving in a, into a direction that's been described by the co panelists where,

where both sides are suffering from industry, where ukraine us on, is it off pressure and where that's not really prospect. and we saw this coming out of the nate, the foreign minister summit of a substantial increase in west a ministry, a to ukraine. even though that would be necessary to put you quite in a, in a better negotiating position. but that is not on the horizon at the moment and told the plating leadership, others are thinking about what potential pathways that could be to once a, a seizing office tendencies and potentially a piece later on. and certainly many are looking at one specific date, january 20th, when donald trump will take office, we tired us general keeps kellogg is set to become trumps, special envoy for you claim, and russian at 80 years old. he liked the president elect aims to quickly end the russian war against ukraine and bring both sides and then go shading table. here's what we know about the piece plan by keith kellogg, drums, designated special envoy for ukraine and russia. the us would supply more weapons

to keep students her for the russian advances for future attacks, but that aid would only be provided if you crane is willing to negotiate the goal, being a peace agreement with security guarantees. russia could receive guarantees that ukraine will not become a needle member for years to come. the plan calls for the freezing of front lines and the creation of a demilitarized zone under russian leadership in eastern ukraine. ukraine would not have to officially give up occupied territories, but their status would need to be decided through negotiations, not armed conflict. presidents the landscape has expressed a surprising willingness to compromise. if we want to stop the hold stage of the war on big umbrella, we should take on the nato umbrella to the territory of the train that we have under our control show a diving, that's what we need to do fast,

and then you can come get back the other parts of which territory diplomatically the trump kellogg plan, a chance for peace, or has ukraine already lost a fail you were talking about ukraine, surrendering before the lotteries. lensky had always said that he was not willing to concede any part of its territory to rush out. what do you make of those latest statements where it appears that though, as he could, in fact give up some part of the territory to achieve peace, to be sure, russia's aiming at your credit surrender. i think nobody in the west is anything that cannot at least the persons and in responsible political positions. but to your question, um, i think that reflects a reality that the way you need to ship is recognizing that through military force . it will be very difficult for particular because there is no prospect of the increase minutes rate at this point in time to recapture, to the brake pulse occupied territories. and that potential path to we gaining them

as diplomatic rosalyn military. and that is something that many would wish for it to us. the plan that we're seeing now could for see freezing the front lines roughly as they are today. do think that's realistic to that we're having to sort about this request to move freezing. the front lines might have different meaning fazio crating and then follow the russians. and if landscape formally says, well, we could accepted not giving up ukrainian territory, which he cannot do by the constitution. so formally, not giving it up, but agreeing that it's under foreign control under russian control. i'm not sure whether this works because i'm not sure how the reference was interpreted, says this is part of what like the old german model during the cold war. when west germany, in a way, had still moved still about thinking about eastern germany,

but was basically part of germany that all turned out differently. how to 1999. but that was a similar construct and was one main difference. there was no hot war. yeah. and now we have to know we have ok more and there is another very important sticking point in those potential negotiations. money not words, not actions is what we've seen when it comes to ukraine. joining nato. we were hearing presidents a landscape talking about a plan under the umbrella of nato for protecting the territory. what could be alliance really be willing to provide you a crane and a potential piece deal as well? that's a very good question. the 1st i'd like to return briefly is a buffer zone and a so we refer it from the cranium perspective. it's already a complicated matter to consider it from the russian perspective. at least of what

the russian media has been conveying so far is that they are not going to go for another minutes agreement because it doesn't work. the point here, especially in light of what is happening in syria, the russians are saying, now you see what happens if you freeze conflicts. if you freeze wars it is on with him for a re and will still it is will eventually breakout. and so i'm not sure how far as the russians are willing to go in terms of freezing and creating a buffer zone, they are because of this distrust towards the west end of the western. but still it is interpreted from the russian point of view. and as far as what nato can do now, one for the few crate. joining me the way we have to think about the legal issues concerning the as a whole process of joining nato, you will have to be offered that membership action plan. and for that to you also

have to fulfill some specific conditions which you create in its present state that doesn't fulfill. therefore, they need those own statues would have to be changed in order for this scenario to be implemented on the one hand. and on the other hand, this could create a for us. so then, if you crane or part of your crate and joints, nato a, what would it mean for other potential countries that are seeking legal membership on the one hand, on the other hand, what is need a willing to deploy it to ukraine in order to wanted to work this buffer zone in order to ensure that if there is a cease fire that both sides keep the seas fire. and that is a big question. and of course, from the russian perspective, this will become them station that soldiers right on rushes warriors in ukraine and possibly long range weapon systems operated by

major personnel. so i see if i think we briefly lost medina there, but she was talking about what could be considered red lines for vladimir putin at the contrary actually to what he is demanding to us. there are also red lines here in europe, and here in germany that we've seen cross time and time again. ukraine joining nato was something germany has been hesitant to accept or to support so far. do you see that changing in case there are these negotiations taken? no, i don't see this type of thing at the moment. of the impression is that the drum and the is looking pretty straightforward at the pre condition that the concrete joining nato is not actually in a war engaged somewhere. it's like, you don't get insurance when you're all is, is already burning. so this won't work,

i think. and the other point, which makes me very, very skeptical about this trump color plan, is this would mean nato troops deploying right as, as maureen already mentioned, right on, on the russian border and said something put in, always wanted to avoid. in fact, that's why he went to ward. so why would you offer him? why do you even expect him to agree to to a ceasefire? which means you will have this very natal presence to despise. that's one important question and more important aspect. the other is the fact that there have to be consequences in the best of cases for a country and bathing another too much. despite the fact that this would cause a putting to have, for example, nato troops right on his border. it would also be, let's say, light exit from the point of view of consequences. but what would that mean for the

european security architecture? russia learning the less than that, invading another country will not necessarily mean any type of very heart punishment. i think that that goes to the core of the, of the dilemma that policy makers in europe, face trading, short term risks associated with ukraine's made a membership for a tom example with long term risks that are associated with, with not inviting ukraine into the lines or offering other kinds of security guarantees to it. so we wouldn't have a frozen, somewhat semi hot conflict going on in europe that click port of freight to other countries model that comes to mind. and so if we don't solve this problem from your perspective, then we'll have to face a much bigger problem. i think of the medium for long term. and that russia has continued interest in, in meddling in european affairs. and one more tool to do that, to ukraine. when we talk about your brain, we also can't forget the people of the crane and the military. specifically marina

. what does it mean if we see russia over, sorry, ukraine, seating territory to russia, something that has been a no go for a large part of the ukrainian population and also for the ukrainian military. with that, put an end to a lot of our zalinski as the country's leader to think well, that's a very good question because we need to look at president savanski is reading so especially since may of this year. because um, obviously ukraine should have had the elections and from my understanding and flooring also has the queen in media um his readings have full and he has full in popularity, especially if you compare it to a general level. there is a lovely and so i have this and sation that the ukranian people are becoming tire, then we're seeing it also in terms of the recruitment, the military recruitment that is not working out as planned. so it seems that they

are much more willing to accept and, and to the conflict, whatever it looks like, just to stop this war and just stop whatever is going on in your grant. because it's not just the more that's polygons of people, but also the economic situation and ukraine's economy is completely destroyed. and so yes, i think should there be any sort of ceasefire. even the western allies would probably sort pressure on ukraine to hold general elections, to hold presidential elections. and for people to choose who they are in next, leader will be adaptable, certainly determines a furnace, or course of where ukraine will land. politically. it seems as though none of you really think this piece plan could be very promising, despite the fact that donald trump has now to end the world very quickly. what happens if there is no peace plan and no agreement in the next few months to me?

well, the cause of all would go on that will be a terrible prize you credit will have to pay unless the europeans might be willing and might be able to step in with more weapons, more ammunition. obviously they can't replace the people who are the soldiers, but at least give the opinions, tried to replenish ukrainian stocks that might be a better chance. and still we are talking about what's about the european long range weapons. so taurus, again comes to mind which drummond chancellor, but again, repeatedly says he won't deliver ok. so we'll see what happens after the drum and electrons in february. so that might change it to things, but i'm not sure that the fault term holds us. war broke out. it seems as though

the european nato. alice don't really have a plan. what actually it's the german transfer just announced 650000000 euros and additional age to ukraine that sold additional miller. excuse me. that has been pledged before. you mentioned that again when he was in kiff. right. okay. but that they haven't been delivered so far, so good that has been planned, autopay. okay. but he announced that it will be delivered now that means an additional i will not additional for a former promise military aid. however, these amounts are not as high as we saw in, in, in other parts or episodes of this war. do you think the politicians are still doing a mistake that everyone has been signaling from the beginning that is just giving dribs and drags and help a to crane and that this will continue until trump takes off? or i think of, well, the material, but the reality is that we haven't paid up european defense industry to the degree that we could now significantly increase what we provide to ukraine and back

funding all at one stop pulse. that is a decision that we should have taken to 2 and a half years ago and we didn't. if we take that decision now, and that's some hints that the defense ministry, the ministry focused on making fans take this issue quite seriously. but then it would still take a couple of months if not years for a to arrive. so this is a very precarious situation, coupled with the political instability that we have in germany because of electrons and friends because of collapse and coordination of government. and in the united states, with the transition to the donald trump administration, this is a really tough situation for ukraine. and i hardly see how, how this will improve over the short term. we're going to briefly take a look at the situation in russia because the word rimming, if economic boom is starting to show its negative sides, the rubel has recently plummeted. labor shortages are becoming more acute and inflation is on the rise. moscow supermarkets may be full, but people are feeling the effects of rising inflation. at the end of november,

the ruble failed to its lowest level against the us dollar since the beginning of the war. the amount that we pay, i mean from that we buy is in us dollars. so we are really suffering because of the fact of what we used to pay out of cost a certain physical disease, hired by 25 percent now. pretty 5 to 30 percent votes, which include prices have risen. that's just how it is. what can you do? we have no choice. we can choose the times we live in diet. i choose to live with a sense of ease and joy. does it look good? so far, many russians have benefit from the war economy, which has created jobs, especially in the defense industry. but this economic stimulus is now reaching its limits. once more, lower oil prices, new sanctions, and even higher inflation could push shot into a recession. the punch in would then find it more difficult to finance a conflict that is expected to cost more and more. how long can russia

afford this war? we certainly had that question before. also in the show. it's been a 1000 days of war and we've heard a 1000 wrong predictions about what would happen to russia, marina, is there any reason to believe the economy could limit russia's performance on the ground as well? economy is central. let's say mechanism here in order to enable military operations because you have to finance them, but linking it back to the previous segment about nathan, needles capability in european defense industry. yes, this is going to be difficult for russia and i'm not sure if it's a temporary issue. was a full approval. it wasn't the central bank will be able to contain this or how this will it will, it remains to be seen. there are some predictions that the russian economy will be

able to sustain the war for at least an officer, 2 years. now let's consider the european, the defense industry and how this plays out. can europe in needham members sustained a support in ukraine for the next couple of years? and some of the problems have already been mentioned. i would like to also add the supply chain crisis and the growing prices for all materials. so for you in europe, can defense companies they can produce, but they cannot produce the williams that say the russians, the lowest koreans can produce despite all the sanctions. yeah. and so the question here becomes, can we, even if with rushes economy now in the klein, can european nato members compete with russia while we arming themselves and also supporting ukraine at the same time?

and i think that should be considered from this angle in order to make a proper assessment. the assessment that is difficult and has been from the beginning uh to us, if there is no, you know, concise action by then it, you are p and nato countries. is there any way to still punish rush out through the sanctions to somehow limit their weapons and it hasn't worked so far has worked so far. and the point is, well, how far can you go? how far are you willing to go? quite obviously, despite the sanctions, russia is delivering all is selling oil, it's selling gas. so the question is, why does it not work? and what codes are europeans do? if you see the federal fleet of, of tankers alone in the baltic, the, you, my task, why, why 2 european countries not take action on bad?

that might be reasons i, i could imagine if it, what would be the other way around the russians would have great ideas on environmental reasons or whatever, to control these slates. so your opinions are not doing this fault for whatever reason. we had obviously a stand off between a russian tanker and the drum and how that cup the last week where the russians just fired. not direct you up alley, cup to the took all um pre conditions to scary it off. so how far of you can swing to go? that's the question. it has been from the beginning. we have time for one more question for you. do you think, considering what we just talked about, that we are in a tipping point for you cream, or is this just one of many moments where people thought there was change coming? and nothing really made a big difference. fundamentally,

it's really difficult to run counter scenarios and that goal for the sanctions issue as well. if we haven't implemented sanctions on russian defense industry on imports for microprocessors, for example, what the russians have been able to produce many more missiles than they're currently using. and again, so crane and so this is a very cool, difficult question to sort of conceptually grasp with. and i think it's too early to draw final conclusions. we'll have to wait once again. thank you so much, all 3 of you for your analysis. and of course, thank you for watching. remember, you can always, we watch this show on our youtube channel. just look for the don't use. and the latest to the point episode, i thought you didn't get us here in berlin until next time. take care of by the,

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