i was one, darren, go to health, smart nature, the more likes watching it on youtube dw documentary, the end came pretty fast of the 14 years of civil war. the syrian rebel of h t. s and their allies, the powers, the hated dictator, asada. after a lightning compact for 5 decades, they also have family role syria with an iron fist stuff, dictate dish torture, random executions of brutal secret service. millions fled in the hall from syrians had to find refuge elsewhere and she is the face. awesome victory off met a shot, a foam, i'll tell you that's her wrist turn. celebrate to deliberate. can a unify, a country that has been a portion of the regions, players type sheet,

iran or russia for decades. they're asking off to us. that's down for. can syria be revolt? the hello and welcome to to the point my panel today. kristin, a journalist, an expert on syria, and the middle east, and my dw colleagues might assume that i'm a journalist from sylvia. and all these thoughts, all the new jobs, a german uranian political scientist and director of the center for middle east and global hello, and welcome to all of you. i said i'd like to start out with you. can you tell us, how did you experience this, this people to night?

and what did you hear immediately from friends and family that was a historic night. we were sitting in front of our tvs like not able to, uh, to sleep following life you back up to see where the rebels were at. like every 5 minutes. and at some point i fell asleep as a surrender to sleep. and around 3 in the morning or 3 30 in the morning and my telephone rang and that was my sister in law has given me the great, you know, news special ed is now is a way, is not, not in syria anymore. that was a moment, a few for yeah, something you, you might not experience in your whole life. the once in your life. a everyone was celebrating inside and outside syria. not. i know by now in the high side or now, or maybe in the coming weeks and months we will have some fears and we were

a we, we are way of the challenges but of that night at that moment, only joy, nothing else. cause were you surprised? i mean, you're looking at the region, you're looking at syria for years and years and years. where are you surprised? nobody saw this coming? not even the slightest themselves. i mean, the tent was of this offensive was to stop the one thing of it to the of the land of the northwestern part of syria. they never imagined to concord level, i think. and when they stopped marching, south conquering all entering, then how about and homes. and finally, domestic was this had done a dynamic that nobody had 1st seen because this vision finally the salt itself and it was the soonest themselves the overcome overcame the fear, the end. and they just went to the different prison, those to the party centrals. and they kind of a top of the regime and they ended the finalized revolution that had started in 2000. and i mean, if we're looking at the whole region, but also it's area and so could you compare this has been compared to the photo of

the wall in germany? is that justified? it's, well, it's a historic moment for sure. and so what's us have moment for the in charge of politics of them at least um, we'll see how it's going to unfold. uh, but it is a consequence. so what has been going on over the last one or 2 years with the unraveling of the iran, that excess of resistance of which uh, a subs and syria was a key part of it was a transit route for iranian weapons to where it says but, but also beyond but after has but uh, was extremely weakened by israel. the h. yes. um, you know, how to golden opportunity to top of the side regime because there was no support from uh, you know, as the subversion even had a decade ago, uh, from uh, the uh, from the russians um and who else involved in the war on ukraine. but also on the ground with, you know, thousands of has been a fight as being sent to syria,

to support assets together with an intern, uh, international shi, uh brigades, uh, iranian lads, uh, composed of, of gun and pockets tony fighters. this time around, the iranians had even called upon the p, m f, which is the popular mobilization forces pro iranian village shows and iraq to come and save a set by they rejected the called so you know, all of that would not have been possible without the historic weakening of iran geopolitical power in the region. and my son, 14 years of civil war, 50 years of a sub family rule issue. will with us that for even huh. what, what, what has that done to the country, to the people? as you might have seen, the for this is coming from said now prison. i think this is every, to torture prison for political prisoners. yeah. and that was only one prison. what

this done, what this has done to the country is that this is a country where you suspect a dungeon under your feet, wherever you walk around in syria. this is the country that was after 14 years destructive totally economically, socially, even physically. uh, it's a total destruction. it's almost like europe after the 2nd world war. uh, but again, this moment the joy of being liberated, of this redeem, of this, this sophia. and it gives you a great amount of power to start again and start rebuilding the whole thing, the whole country to the fact that they did it by themselves. he's literally beautiful. those of you know why i order the way. yeah. and very peacefully, this is possible, so the functioning for me tells me that it was so with so little blotchiness, but in the end and the very doesn't disappoint weight. and i want to add it. it was

surprising for me for you christa for many. but it wasn't surprising that the he is gone at the end eventually, it wasn't surprising for those who are living of a sense i had over the years. so many questions with people living in ed live and you know, displaced the defense and, and they all believe so strongly that to you will eventually be couple of those who suffered the most were the ones who never lost hope. this is surprising. so i saw the dictates of is gone uh, but he leaves a country in ruins, but that is a new strong man in serial. now let's have a quick look at what we know about him sofa and about his agenda. the, the villa of the family looted the regimes torture chambers, story. the dictator assad fled to russia for years. she had fought against some of his own people, aided by a ron russia and the islamist hezbollah militia,

leader of the uprising called mohammed all to lonnie on the battlefield, is now using his real name. ok, mid l sharp. the h t. s. liter celebrated victory. yet the maya mos in damascus, but his is columbus group remains on the you and us terror relations. the former allocate a supporter presents himself as a moderate this victory. my brothers is a historic turning point for the entire islamic nation. it's the beginning of a new era for the entire region. the good news, a transitional government has been named. but what exactly will serious future look like? what kind of state does h t s want? so how could h t s and the lead to become so influential until possible so quickly? well, what i'm at as a vanity or i'm in china. what is his real name is what you did during the last 2

years is to build up a government and it lip in the smell for some part of c, we got hit this with a lot of authoritarian rule inside. so he disciplined different munitions. he kind of built them up as one font. this is why they listened very well to what he says that this looking with what you're seeing right now. he brought with a card. i used to be a kind of leader. he broke with a kind of 2016 and his aim and his goal was always to liberate or those top of that seemed busy and not an international jihad. the agenda, like the tar organization, isis islamic state. this is with it. so he was never interested in the turbo tax in europe or in the west anyway. so this is this agenda and what helped him to do this is that he has the sleep listening is an uplift, he kind of minutes well the administration of this region. so what he did when the offensive started is sending model with messages every day. once he was addressing the questions and level, then was talking to the allies at the coast. and he was talking about the courts

and how everybody was part of the society. and should play a role in the future, then he talked to see and, and telling them that it's all about institutions and not about leaders. so he did everything right in the 2 weeks, he either has a very strong p r advice or, or he really believes in what you said by says, do you believe that he could become a politician? i think he could become a full edition. if we look at his biography, the way he was, he started with isis and he was able then to, to go away from isis and, and give his loyalty to a how to of the why heavy to be affiliate the guy, the, and then 2016. he broke his ties with the car, the and started his own business in it live. so we are looking at a person who is very able to transform. and this is, i think the best recipients to being a good school efficient or april edition when they're good or bad. i don't know the

of us, he was in us presence. what's his, what's his view of the sort of $10000000.00 bounty on his head by, by the us. what's his view towards the west in general? the us, i mean there is a, this process of more duration, which is key to understand its changing relationships and also the fact that he gave us a sense of you to see. and so he's trying absolutely to, you know, to show moderate face visa view the west, and also the us as of that, they're gonna remove the organization from the tires and list of, you know, things go, you know, according to kind of, you know, according to this model more duration plan. so i think uh, i mean he will, he would be open to deal with the west and the only thing that links yes is use of any to corporate invites everybody to come from it. yeah, absolutely. and on the other hand, and he has been very reluctant, i mean very critical of the role of your one,

which he mentioned as the chief supports of the board. so i said regime, so if you're on, who's the big loser going to be very difficult if not impossible to again, you know, a set foot in syria. i'm trying to influence the, i mean, the iranians or the total losers and this game. i mean, the tyler bond uh when they came back in in 2021, they promised similar things, more rights for women and girls and all that. and now we see what actually happened kind of the same thing happening. and so, yes, i mean, they are estimates, i mean, to be model of it now and talking about love isn't, doesn't make it nice is the nice system isn't as long as it doesn't mean that it can not be a democratic order and see what you know but i think syria is different from i've gone this time to a certain extent because and i think that in july and i try to seize the different, assess what he knows. i mean, the women are very well educated and it was a social country. i mean, i've done this time used to be a socialist country, but i cannot imagine myself a seeing the ceiling. women now being prohibited to study. and i think she knows

this. my question is, can he control the radical fight? is that within his range? because there are some real de heidi's, they have some people who came from outside. some was for example from china. and they came for a kind of a jihad, they came for jihad and they want some kind of a states, you know, go to start some into some of the offers the somehow, so they might be disappointed. my oldest wonder at talking. and then what would he do can be really disciplined. these people inside. most of the do you remember? sorry, yeah, you'll keep the people, you know, your family, your friends, your contact and serial. are they worried? are women worried that there could be a totally bounce dante cool, this is a good question. they are worried. but you know, they also aware of the fact that syria is different than the end of kind of style. and syria is very, very diverse. not only politically, but also religiously and ethnically and the goods,

but the know that it used to be but not after 20 years before and then before and after the time the bon. i'm talking about see we're at right now and kind of sound right now. and the, the good news is that a h t s is not the only aren't group and syria, they have to co co operate with other strong groups like s d, f and the remnants of the old regime and even the s n a and the on groups in the south, so i think i much said it is also aware of that. he has to go for a to with everybody. and he has to give some kind of representation to everybody in syria to stay in power and to build some think reasonable. and so it is now the time for the west to decide which group to support. i think the west should support a process of democratization and an inclusive government in sarah, this is the main drop of the west. and i mean, there are ways to do that because if it doesn't do so,

it's also going to have in the negative a secure to ramifications down the road. so it is absolutely you know, indispensable to really push for an inclusive government for democratic standards for the respect of human rights and minorities for all that. so this is absolutely crucial and there are ways to do it. i mean, the germans have a huge syrian pop, you know, certain population. there are lots of civil society organizations here can be involved in this transitional periods. the, the us could also do a, it's a share with the, not only with the terrorism designations or removing those designations, but also in terms of security. and so that there is a lots that the west should do and should push for that because it's, um it's, it's a historic moment and it's, it's kind of depends a lot of, you know, on, on, on the developments in sierra how the region might be in back to it on the mit and

the longer time as well. the economy is also a in intent as the current season is. and freeform really is, this is very much a question of money that needs to be put in by the west as well. it needs to be put in, in a way that will benefit the majority of the people in this lesson off the cage case under the outside world because they've been using this money this to minute. terry 8 more than 16000000 people depend on giving and tearing 8 by the u. n. and it's only financed and one 3rd. so there is a huge need for more money, and this would be $1.00 focus of the international community to only support what's going on and not the term and it. and i'm trying to influence it in a way that so the interest rather than the interests of the student people. this is one very important point, rebuilding syria and looking out for housing lender property rights. because we have 7000000 people who are displaced within syria. nice people i know going back to the holes looking who is there,

who took maybe there the houses to we built them. this is a huge a subject. and the other very important point is justice and the feeling that whoever was responsible for these dungeons and for this, you injustice will be held accountable. and there should be. and this is the question of these days, really because what we are seeing is that people start to take this into their own hands. no people go after a formally does off prisons or a secret service as them. so this is very important. the, the fact that they will take care to get hold of the leadership. but this was possible for that because then you can forgive the many, many 1000000 people who would just accept hospital vision without having any responsibility for what, what we urgently need is a way to stop the country from descending into a wave of functions because it's really serious human to terry and age is very crucial, but i think what celia needs is a marshall plan. humanitarian aid won't be enough to rebuild such a destructive country. we need a serious marshal plan something. again,

something similar to this thing we saw in europe after a devastating war as adult sending money to the pockets example initially the to make sure not to repeat what we did enough. got to start, you know, to really try to build up a process that is inclusive and represents everybody. there are so many fault lines that are already visible. we've, we've talked about some of them and we already see the find thing going on between projectors, militias, and, and codes. there's, there still, there's still no proof of peace in syria. is this realistic that with so many different groups and trying to come to a solution and a history of civil war that peace breaks out. now this piece is not going to break your policies. uh, both sides available since uh, but uh, i mean, so, i mean,

you know, it's very difficult us to, to give you a, uh, exact, uh, answer there is a lots of, you know, internal factors. it's a diverse seducer in society. it's um, you know, the diversity of the military factions. so lots will depend on the balance of power and the arrangements that they may seek or may not seek their external powers as to turkey. there's cuts are, there's also use ro, who as you know, get, got to involve militarily now, and who's around instigations. we're not sure about yet. but, i mean, the, another, i mean, an important lesson. speaking of the west has to understand that, you know, all of that happens with no one really, you know, being able to foresee it and why it's happened was that not the only the geo political context, which was important, which i explained to the beginning, but also the vacuity of a 3rd term regimes when they don't have

a social base anymore if the social base is just composed of a few of these structures. so um, you know, the, the long held power, dime by the west to rely on a author. retirements, debility is perhaps a paradigm to really forgot to about because, you know, dictatorships may not be as stable as they pretend to be. because of, you know, various us economic political problems. so this is of the opposite. the lesson to be learned, if not to after the outbreak of the arch spring. but at least now when this regime has been toppled. if it's, you know, it has a lots of identifications for european, but also less than policy. these are the a whole array of other to retire and countries in and by the way, in europe's neighborhood. so we have to engage in a paradigm shift now engaging and pursuing a policy that is much a much better able to support the aspirations of those societies. and out immediate neighborhoods then to engage in some kind of short term stability,

a deals with the autocrats. because what look stable from the outside and see oh yeah, ever since 2020 was not stable. it was feeling like, you know, people, but this stimulating they were living in poverty, you know, 90 percent of people in poverty. so this is not the concept now to look at the middle east. i completely agree, and we have 2 countries, the plate and they go to full right now, especially turkey. i mean, this is where it from the cell they are taking the kind of this army, the whole state of syria right now, out of the fear that this, the army or this military might fall into the hands of jihad is in damascus. but we have talked to the north will still have play and negative for will because with their own soldiers, the sue and national, i'm you that already mentioned they are attacking the kurdish forces in the northeast. and this is this kind of in fighting that syria does not need right now, which is hopeful is that the meat or office stealing democratic forces, the kurdish forces is in contact with h t s. for they really trying to build up an alliance to rebuild syria in

a better future. what is negative, and this should be addressed by western allies of turkey to influence and to talk to president add on the t understands that his interest in syria already fulfilling themselves because refugees will go back from kentucky. and curtis autonomy will not come autopay because they are supposed to be part of a federal new syria, a turkey of course, a major player in all this. what about the law and what can we expect from to run this list? there was great confusion and there was a shock of tremendous proportions, a something that we haven't seen since the other very well just have moment even globally, the 1979, you're running revolution. this is, i mean, this is a strict moment. there's a lot of confusion. the iranians were heavily surprised what was going on. i mean, they've probably realize of to take over a lat, pulldown. they cannot really mobilize and save the outside regime this time around

. and it's a huge loss. so they can not, i mean, the iranians were hoping to rebuild testable once you know, also with the ceasefire and perhaps, you know, in the wake of it. but now how can they do it without the land to transit road via syria. so the entire strategy of the iranians have, has crumpled strategically in terms of power projection, but also in terms of leverage, visa v, a different players. so all of that doesn't exist beyond that. the iranians have invested a lot of money in syria, probably, you know, at least so $2000000000.00. i mean, probably more with also, you know, fake credit lines or with iranian oil deliveries to syria. so they've lost lots of money. so the iranians are, i mean, this is a huge audiological problem for the regime because there is a lot of people also some younger radicals. who actually, um, you know,

to tell the scene is that why didn't you, you know, answer the word to save assets at one important play a very briefly, what role can these real play? is one is trying to use this moment, as i already mentioned, is right. and is afraid of what comes next. they were quite happy with the a soccer team because they kept the school on heights quiet over the decades. there was never any attack from the goal on heights because whatever pressure suit i wanted to take on his way was minutes for his bullet insulting the. this was the axis. so what's happening now is, um, it's not only the attacks the bombardment of the marine, for example, and these military assets of the i'll see we have, but they have to enter the golan heights. they already occupying the lights, the next them. so what they did is to build a new buffer zone. this is how they called usually, and they went to mount helen. this is the military strategic center of this area because you can look all the way to jerusalem to the mass schools and to live on so they will, they will not leave them on long island. so there's a territorial change. i have to come to the end very, very briefly,

one year from now we'll be see a democratic peaceful survey. not yet, but we will be on the right track to with whatever you we don't know, but hopefully, and if we're going to see that they're going to have a positive domino effect in the region and perhaps beyond. so for this democracy takes more time, often more than half a century of dictatorship. this will take time, i hope it's going to be more or less peaceful. this was already some encouraging thoughts that thank you very much to my panel. that's it. from to the point for today, we hope you found the discussion. interesting. don't tell us what you think. if you're watching on youtube, leave a comment right below here and from me and my panel. thank you very much for watching c. as in the,

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the make up your own mind. me. i'm beautiful. my nephew, he read the city, we don't know what is going on. where is mohammed sub on the side, paul. and we told him go, but the other side below those, you know, they didn't get him back. so the was how much sub off fled from northern iraq. and he became one of hundreds of migrants who vanish every year. somewhere in the no man's land, the lines between the square refugees become pools in a cruise to your political conflict. missouri,

i'm afraid i'll never see him again. when you last, under the scots, december 18th, on d. w. the estate of the news law, i from berlin variance pick up the piece of this after the fall of the outside regime. every day life begins to return to the streets of the capital to moscow, as the hundreds attend the funeral of a leaving anti government activists are also on the program. the. the house, as normal saying is already enticing, fair in refugees to return to their homeland. correspondent talks to syrians weighing the options of turkey or pressure is mounting on president aired on to send them home. and a teenage prodigy from india to.