of the right building briefing time. i'm reachable. true. and today we're going to get you fully brief. don't the alternative for germany, your f d. that's the far right party that's being shaking up german politics. they're expected to get the best result ever in the elections coming up in just a couple of months. and that's going to make them really important plan not just in germany, but with the impact going beyond. so i'm here with dw is matthew moore and stephanie video from the target spiegel newspaper. both of them follow the a f d closely. so it's great to have you guys here. and today we're going to go through 3 main points. first of all, why the a f d is so popular and what they want to do with that popularity. secondly, that views on foreign policy. and sadly,

the people who you need to know at the top of the party and at the end we're going to wrap up with some predictions. can they achieve that dream of national power? go right, so we'll have that to get to. but matthew, let's just get things started, where things stand with 2 months out from the election, and the f t has never been so strong at this stage. give us a snapshot of where things stand. so the f d has basically been writing really high in the polls for the last 2 years or so. the start this year there was a big explosive story about the do you which did heart them a bit when when we saw that there was a kind of stories about them members meeting and a villa type post. i'm talking about re migration and not damaged them. but actually we sold in european elections came up in june. they did really well to the, the, the minus to be the, the, the result last time. and then you have the state elections. we draw elections in september and the one to range of the came 1st. it's actually became 2nd, but the,

the mood and the main. somebody who would be behind this party right now would tend to enters into states and eastern germany that, that they were so strong. and so they traditionally being strong that but, but obviously we're looking ahead to national elections here. so it's a where, where does the poll stand? what sort of percentages? so the moment they're shifting around 18 percent. just depending on where you look . 1718 percent. i am 2nd, which is quite, quite significant, right there. ahead of the s p d. the social democrats who are the governing party in berlin, the head of the, the government here. so at the moment, if there was an election on sunday, they would be 2nd. and that's remarkable, isn't it? i mean, when do you think that they've come from these thought to just over 10 years ago? yeah, under a fall right potty. yeah. must never govern before and it'll be the 2nd largest parties. yeah, i mean, it does. it does bring back memories for me. so so back in 2013, i think it was the 1st national elections that they run in. and i was at their election policy that night and they just squeaked in the lows. magic 5 percent

numbers are 5 percent is the threshold and the german elections, electrical systems that you need to get into a problem and they just fell short of that. but they basically being on a climb since then within the last election in 2021 they came in that just over 10 percent. i think it was 10.4. if i remember rightly it's stephanie. now we're looking at, in the ballpark of 18 still to a lot of, you know, listeners around, well they might think, okay, 18 percent. so sound like that much. why is this a significant number? i think 1st of all, many people didn't expect that the party started as in like an entity and try to ease you party was all about a economy about the european union and then they went further and further to the right. and now they're like, i'm at their most extreme point in the history of the party. and when with that program they, um they, again, all of this is a part and it's not like the people vote for them only because they want to

win to express that they are not happy with the government, but also because they are good behind the program. of the parties, so that has changed and as you mentioned, it's a very, very steady rise. so you can expect that they will rise for the end of them at one, at some point. it will be a problem for the, for the system. yeah, so obviously we're going to talk a bit about the program today. we're also going to talk about the future prospect. but yeah, 18 percent and in what is a pretty highly fragmented electrical system is strong, right. as you said, met, i mean that's 2nd place behind the conservatives. they seem to use the main stream sent to right party, which is a little over 30 percent. so definitely a powerful play and they've just kind of had a milestone, haven't they? earlier this month they picked at least vital as the candidate for chance. let me ask you why is that an important milestone was that they've picked somebody to be

a candidate for chocolate and say one or 2 was about at least vital. that's quite significant, isn't it? because like, traditionally you don't place a tons like 100 unless you think that you have a steak or some, a claim on power. and she actually said that she said, you know, we, they say look, should be something, look to the polls and said were the 2nd strongest party in the country, therefore, you can no longer keep us out of power. you can no longer sideline us, you know, that we have this firewall, the front of my one in germany where potties basically have this, the democratic sent to say that we're not going to deal with if the she says that that's on, on really on, justified given high, popular the on so and a bit to basically acknowledge their support in the polls. they've said we're going to place our tons like tons of it, but it's also, i think, kind of like strategic isn't it? because they're trying to be know that they'll get more of the city. uh, that kind of like helps us fido position or so for someone who's got mode, right? right. she's got she's, she's no longer on the fringes, although, you know, we, the, are a pull test positive, but she's saying look, look, i'm, i'm a candidate for time slot, i believe, and it, so it's

a project to show some notions and get a little more time through that, i guess some an outcome election. and yeah, i mean, i think that's an important thing to stress about that position and right. it will probably be talking about this throughout the po, cost today is that they are a policy that the other party. so 5 said we don't want to touch and that's important in the german system because usually one party never runs germany by itself. you always have to co have the coalition, right. and currently, we have a coalition that has recently broken off. it was a 3 way of coalition to prove to be unstable. but none of the main street parties have said that they would work with a f t each. definitely just quickly. why is that? why did they know when to touch it? a? yeah, good question. the one thing is that the, they are, they don't work together like the program of the if the, the doesn't correspond with any other program of the other mainstream parties. so that's one thing. and the other thing is that they have to signal to voters that if, for example, they vote for the city, the christian,

a democrats. and that's the conservative cl conservatives, right. and that it wouldn't be a possibility and that in the end they would have a collision with a f d. so we'll just have to be sure that their roads wouldn't be used by this kind of collision. that's one thing. and also am, and germany, and the f d is viewed as a very, very different party from all the, all those they, the strategy, the program, the things they, they say the people and they present as the important politicians. and that they are part of a very, very different spectrum and then all the parties. yeah. so essentially the other part he's saying this party is too far to the right. we need to keep it out because that could be dangerous, particularly given japanese history, as of course, the country that that was ruled by the nazis and, and adult hitler. okay? so some of that background we're going to touch on the elements of that later. but

let's start looking in detail about the positioning and the selection of and why they're popular and what they want to achieve. so we've got a sound bite from alice vital who we've just mentioned on the day when she was named as the candidate for counselor. and i think in december i, she pretty well expresses, you know, an important part of that, of that platform. now we're going to hear it in german 1st and then i'm going to read it back in english and then we can talk about it. okay, let's hear that sounds like thoughts land. it's in, i know zine us vast increase in via home and also i'm land sponsor java. the closer quoted still on hold i'm the into owns lives and up is just all right, so you could hear in the tone of her voice that this is alice vidal saying things and all good. so she said, germany is one that in one of its worst crises, we've gone through 20 years of grand coalitions and traffic light coalitions. so

referring back to the, to the governments of the main street and governments of the past. and she and say, and we have crashed into the ground. stephanie, how widespread is that opinion? how many do a lot of germans think that things of that, but many germans do. the question is, uh, that's really the reality in this country. i think when you, when you ask, why do people vote for the f d? it's the one part has a anger and one part of the fear. and when you look at the economy and there is fear of a weakening economy of having to separate from, from loss of jobs from being able to, to pay your rent. so there are many people who fear, but are still in a place where they can pay or they need to pay and survive. and then it's for, for many people who vote for the if the, it's rather feeling than the reality. but the feeling is that the,

if the encourages that and the picture that paint is one over the country that doesn't function any more of a state that's, that's not good for the, for the citizens then of governments who work against their own people. so it's very much about phoenix i'd say and about fear. matthew, would you want to come in on that? what was interesting, right? cuz she's no, she didn't, she didn't mention the economy. shouldn't have to mention anything there cuz it was just, it could have been about society, you know, this is the, the, so basically you have a very broad message. it's like on happiness. so there, there, if you look at like who's looking for the theater, you know, to pull test filters for right nationalist for sure. people who feel like the question democrats the center, right potty, the basically has covered germany for much for the last 70 years that they've basically betrayed them when it comes to like conservatism. people that from the social democrats watching cos voters who maybe feel that the social democrats have

drifted too much the center and don't really reflect the mood and the attitudes and the opinions and the needs of the working class. so we have to just most thing, all of these voters off by so new if we the negative may tone message is just, everything's terrible it's, it's really bad. the only way to, to go of this whole is to vote for us the cool tennis of a party. there's never been in power, which is kind of part of like the po box or part of the challenge that they will have because they've never had to govern. so yeah, i think, i mean to, when i hear the vital is quote that it kind of reminds me of some of the things that donald trump said. so i was just in the us for a couple months covering the election day. and, you know, he's always saying it's the democrats destroying a country. these kind of, uh, you know, what, what they would call us on the local liters is, is kind of driving the country into the ground. and it is striking to see the power, those between the us and,

and germany. if you look at the opinion polls. so the latest opinion poll conducted by the organization that we work with, the dw says that the economy is the top issue. the top concern for votes is by long way, so 45 percent of folks saying that that's the top concern. second one being immigration, and refugees, and the 3rd one being foreign policy and piece and, and international stability. these are pretty much one to one of the same issues that were driving supporters of donald trump as well into the most recent election . so, so big compared to echoes the but the economic situation in germany is worse than in the united states, isn't it? they had inflation in common, but the united states as significant economic growth. stephanie in the last 2 years, there's basically be no economic growth in germany, right? yeah, that's it. but we are coming. i think you have to bear in mind that we're getting out of the corona crisis and the government that now collapsed one to 2 at the

stage with a different like energy system. and they wanted to have a new structure and that had some costs. that's true and the question was if you think that's um, that's something where the tubing or not the, the next governments might be what differently i'm. but i think you can explain all that and doesn't have to be incorrect or right. but the question is, if, if the, if the only the only thing that's important here is as the economic growth, it's very important point. but i think you have to see the, the, the, the big, the program of the coalition behind that. yeah. so i think if we can just spell it out because he had a big part of the criticism that the 50 has is that the current government is being too focused on the green transition on,

on phasing out fossil fuels. and that this is cost the german economy too much. yeah. there's like there's, there's really interesting power those between donald trump and then you have, do you think in terms of the messaging the us, i think it's for me, i think it's slightly different. right? that had the mass of stimulus kept economic stimulus in the us. um on dividing. right. so jeremy, how, how does nothing to willingness to spend a lot of money on the economy of people sense not, right. that's be non stop debates and germany about how to budget, how to kind of so our budgets here because the government doesn't want to borrow money. the other thing is like there's a paradox of data about like the economy is everyone's, hasn't this is like the economies in a bad state, like 80 percent. i can't remember if it goes off of that. but then like the same study, ask people about in a personal financial situation and, and that was different like that. so, so the power adults is that they were saying, actually it is, it's giving me a good it's, it's, i'm doing well, right? so it's only 9 percent of people said look like financially, i'm not doing well at the moment. so there is

a difference. and i think you can attribute that to the fact that the rich like. so we're not in a kind of muscle procession, jeremy, but we're definitely, there's a change, right? there's the, there's a lot of, there's the economic, sort of the energy transition, which is, which is kind of going to pass through to my personal jeremy with. it's like a car industry which has basically been if you like one of the drivers of growth in the last 70 years. so people kind of sense that something is happening. it's not yet come, but the feeler is coming down the time the way down the road. and the other thing is like i lost months, we would just have like a headline of the headlines like this company entails no going to be building the factories here. there's companies like volkswagen is going to be shutting down in factories and so there is like this economic use is like bad, but it hasn't yet hit people in their pocket. so obviously you've got inflation for sure. but like nobody's like there's not this kind of real depression. so let's move on to the last part and we want to talk about some of the people to at least by those, the name is come up the most today. so we will also link to,

to our schools about her in the notes for this. but 1st of all, like stephanie and my you both set so often in the same room with a um, you know, in the background conversation is getting a sense of us and just give me a quick sense like who is at least 5 or what, what, what's the vibe you get from a it's a really good question. i'm not sure if i have the words portion, but i kind of sort of try to to describe it. and i think one thing we didn't mentioned yet is um that she's not only the face of the party right now and the candidate, but she's also the one who i realized that she is. she put everyone into, into his place or her place and with her and was it possible to present the 50 for the 1st time is a party that is not like a party of calles and all of them interest beds are working against each other so so just to chip in, so yeah, i mean there's been in fighting over many years and the f the but, but in the,

in the resolution of that in fighting, it's essentially the, the, the more hard line people who find out too much of the tool. yeah. but, and it's also of, of the picture of a, like a chaos party that became a part of you could have built a government with when you're just looking at the people who remain. and i think she, she has the party in a very firm grip and she is at the she, she works together with teen a coupon of of them, for example, when the co pallet's the co, the policy exec cheese, the sol john. so the candidate. yeah. and it's the one like who, yeah that they are working together, but she's the face and she's the one when some, when there's some trouble in the power she, she tries to solve these, these problems. and she's a very interesting character that she doesn't actually, as far as i know, live in germany. she is that she really voted on germany, but she lives with a woman in switzerland. and um,

so that doesn't really correspond with the, with the pudgy views or values. but um, so just to go into that. so she's gay and she was putting uh, uh, bringing up children together. but the potty has a kind of a pretty traditional view of heterosexual marriage so. so this is one of the intriguing things about about her as a person. yeah, that's interesting, right. um, i talked to an expert some some days ago and was very interesting to me. and then he said that not, not on a political point of view, but you could think of an america who wasn't lost by a party, but it was necessary to, to have her there. and it's the same with what divided. she doesn't represent all the values the, the f, d stands for, but the people in the party respect her because she gets the job done. joe, and it works. and, and it was interesting that she did in the recent press conference, refer to her personal life. and but sort of rejected any implication the just

because she gave she is gay, would mean that she would be progressive or work or anything like that. so, so emphasizing that, i just want to bring in last time by and then i'll go to come to you met so. so this is another quote that at least 5 will made during that that confidence when, when she was named as the parties, uh, uh, canada for chancellor. let's just listen to this and we can open it up beyond i'm postpone the linda slot and that's also the cost at a time. what's the time of kabbalah tom ivana alon smith. i'm not so cool perspective of okay, so just to translate that. so this is kind of carrying on from the scene where you had at the very beginning just saying that kind of germany's going downhill. she said we used to be a prosperous country that our grandparents and parents had built up. we used to be a country with the future. now if you think about that,

i mean that might sound pretty innocuous and pretty much in the same vein is what we had there. but i think the interesting, what in there is grandparents, right? so at least vital it was born, i think in 1979. so the grandparents generation for her, she's a little bit younger to meet my grandparents generation to. that's the world war to generation. and in fact i at least vitals and grandfather was a member of the nazi party or so to use that expression saying that germany was built up by grandparents. i think most jemma politicians wouldn't focus on that generation. right. i think so. i mean, that would jump talk to me when i, when i heard the 1st time, i thought i'm not done usual to you to, to reference your ground princess. i kind of to beauty almost in german, political life. because obviously there's a deep shaven germany about that broadly across the chapter and the street is deep shame. and people would accept that. what happened between the years 1930 to 1945

was appalling, terrible. with the f d, there was a kind of, there's a strand within the pots and has a tendency to kind of just throw in douglas like that. you have it where, whether it's like on a slide or just they're saying you don't want, you don't have to be ashamed of everything that happened. we, it was your, you don't have to be ashamed of your ancestors. and you notice it from time to time because it's like it's throwing in and it's, it's kind of deniable, you know, it's, it sounds innocuous, me goes, come on. but other people do it too much. maximilian class, someone is really influential in the potty. just the other day, it kind of was on the stage and he said it will your ancestors on criminals. and this kind of was an all to, to the incident where he basically said that, you know, everyone who was part of the ss was a criminal, which i'm into deep, deep trouble with the part in fact he was expelled from the, from the, the executive of the part in god's party, the sd kicked out of marine the pens. good thing of the use

a result. so he kind of knows he's playing with fire because and that's part of the strategy of the he is to do that. so it syncing. so there's kind of what the, if, if you get to explicit, you can get yourself kicked out of things. but if you, if your implicit annual meeting, then you're ok. then you can also get a very explicit, for example, beyond the of the thing in a f d and is very exclusive. and he, and go to finding core for that he quoted nazis, engines and several times. and you present them not, you know, which is not really believable for a history teacher which is. and um, so you also kind of good, very explicit. and you don't get kicked out. so yeah, just to explain that. so this was the so view and how could, who's another of these is not very powerful. vega, i think, so we'll see if we can link to, to an article about him in the, in the notes with this in eastern germany. and that important base of for the a f

d that he's somebody who's also kind of played with language and sometimes using the fact that in germany there were certain expressions that you're not allowed to say publicly because they were used by the nazis. and he actually found himself in court for that, but not just wants repeatedly twice in court and everybody who would be gentle sir . yeah, yeah. so and, and claiming that he was unaware of what he was saying. so is that kind of take taken as a whole this, this what matt didn't jumps like, this is all kind of part of the strategy to break that, the bose just to just play with language and to, to broaden the parameters of what you can see and do in public life and it's like it's a strategy is out there. and this is, this is an action. when you hear alice, i don't see things like that. it's a sorry, go ahead. it's not on the positive 1. 1 thing the voters hate is the feeling of not

being able to say what, what you want to say. so that's part of the narrative. the government says you're not allowed to to say what you thing and what's right and what's true. and the party gives you the impression that if they formed a government, it would be all different. you would be finally free to say and think what you want . so implying that it's kind of, it's, they don't want to accept these kind of to abuse is, is just a sort of a form of political correctness or something. okay? so, but these are longstanding to boost that deeply embedded in german society. and as we approach the end here, how does this affect their electability to how many, how many people it they drawing in with this kind of thing compared to the number of people that turning off. so like so, and there's a, there's a study that pays, i remember from spring of this year with kevin motors wash, how many of you would absolutely not thoughts? the sd, and i think the move was around 70 percent. a lot suggested that there's a 30 percent pool of filters that they can tap into. and i think the challenges for

the idea of this kind of image problem when it comes to the fact that they've got these extreme factions. the fact that they, we haven't mentioned that, but the security services in germany here, i've lived with them. i kind of suspected case of right wing extremism. there's a potential that it could be that could be fund and their youth wing is a. so it is a kind of proven case of the right wing extremism that are new, not cheese, and they're around this for years. so that's a big problem for the parties. it kind of looks to become more like to the other. and then then you've just caught those kind of this, this kind of a, on this difficulty with the, the firewall, the brand mo, and germany's like, party. all the parties don't want you to do business with them, which is kind of kind of fatal in a consensus politics environment. yeah, and you have to bear in mind that it's uh seems to change with the generation standard generations who, who started to vote the don't know a different system they, they don't remember that there was a time without the sd and some don't remember why it might be

a problem to just say the things the, the if the says so when you, when you off the young people, um they, they don't have such a big problem. it's not such a big taboo. and assemblies, it gets more and more normal to, to, to vote for it. and especially in the eastern states. so it's a, yeah it's, it's progressing. so, yeah. and that has to be more of a striking thing. some recent elections, the amount of support from young people that they've been getting. so let's, let's move to wrap this up. i want to get some protections from you both. so 1st of all, we have these 5 selection coming up soon. we, we have polling, right? 18 percent, they, you know, is there any reason to doubt that polling or is, does that look fairly solid? that's probably the ballpark that they going to end up in the i think right now it sounds very solid as a kind of corresponds with the european elections. um they had many, many problems at that time. so they might be stronger now. and it really depends on what happens in the next 2 months,

but i think it's might be the correct number. yeah. yeah. and so 18 percent is we hardly at that. could that puts them in 2nd place? so let's think through a kind of a scenario. so, so the 2nd place they, they not going to get into a government because as we know, or if the other parties are said, you know, you're on the other side of a 5 will. what kind of a government is likely to come out of this coming election met and what then would be the role of the if the with employment. so it brings it back to the beginning of the pod cast because i, i think that the numbers looked like the most likely government. correct me if i'm wrong, is a ground coalition of the 2 main parties that, that i've covered germany for most of the last 20 years. the show for democrats on the question democrats. that's like puts the f d as the main party of opposition. if the polls are right, which is great for them because it sharpens their profile and, and allows them to position themselves for the next 4 years as the alternative to

the same old same old, especially as germany undergoes a period which we all expect like of the industrialization that will be difficult. economically, it's going to be a tough few years and they're in the if these team is 2029 to be in power, then whether that's feasible, when you still have this firewall run them, i don't know. but there's a big question much, but whether that is sustainable, cuz when you, when you speak to people in the country, the, the kind of especially younger people, they have a problem with that. you know, they say, i don't understand how you can, you can just block pots out of the democratic process. so whether that holds, we shall see. and stephanie, i mean, there are, of course, so grand coalition is definitely looking like one of the most likely scenarios. but there are other scenarios for instance, so that could be another reweigh coalition if, if the vote is particularly fragmented again, that you might have a coalition with the conservatives, the sofa democrats and the green party, 3 parties and coalition. and the f d could even be the only opposition policy. yeah,

that's another aspect um you could having a problem end of a 4 parties or even the age. it's very unclear at the moment. there are very, there are several um, smaller parties. and if it really gets to the point where the f d is the only a positional policy and would correspond with the narrative, very much saying that the if the is the only alternative, the only opposition and the only possibility to have a some other kind of politics, so i think that is if we kind of wrap up the spelling briefing. now a scenario definitely to think about the looking ahead to those selections coming up in late february. what happens if the, if the emerges as the only problem entry opposition to a mainstream government? that would be quite a, an extraordinary situation here in germany that would definitely have a major impact on the political out for look in germany guys. thank you very much.

stephanie matt, spring, a great conversation, and a check in again with us next week for another button briefing, thanks very much. i the steed veneers coming to live from berlin? india morton's former prime minister by phone month sing. sing died on thursday at the age of 92, he was considered the architect of the reforms that transformed into the, into the can only power house. also coming up israel's leader, benjamin espanol, who says, we're only just getting started as he oversees the press round of air strikes on gammon. the main airport in the capital sun uh was hit while the head of the world health organization is inside plus aviation experts say russian air defense systems likely caused a plane crash in context on the killed 38 people.