them works for him, he wants to increase powers. they should have to wait for trumps. rise to power usa to rights starts january 18th and d w right . 1000000000 briefing time. i'm richard will try and today we're going to get you fully brief. don't the alternative for germany or a f d, that's the far right party that's being shaking up german politics. they're expected to get the best result ever in the election is coming up in just a couple of months. and that's going to make them really important plan not just in germany, but with impacts in going beyond. so i'm here with dw, use matthew moore and stephanie video from the target spiegel newspaper. both of them follow the a f d closely. so it's great to have you guys here. and today we're going to go through 3 main points. first of all, why the a f d is so popular and what they want to do with that popularity. secondly,

that views on foreign policy. and sadly, the people who you need to know at the top of the party and at the end we're going to wrap up with some predictions, cattle they achieve that dream of national power. right? so we'll have that to get to but matthew, let's just get things started. where things stand with 2 months out from the election. and the f. d has never been so strong at this stage. give us a snapshot of where things stand. so the f d has basically been riding behind the poles for the last 2 years or so. the start this year there was a big explosive story about the do you which did heart them a bit when when we saw that there was kind of stories about them members meeting and a villa type post. i'm talking about re migration and not damaged them by actually we saw the european elections came up in june. they did really well to the, the, the minus to be the, the, the result last time. and then you had the state elections which will elections,

timber, and the one to windshield came 1st. this actually became 2nd, but the in the mood and the main switch would be behind this party. right now, i would tend to and those are 2 states and eastern germany that, that, that they were so strong. and so they traditionally being strong that but, but obviously we're looking ahead to national elections here. so it's a where, where did the pole stand? what sort of percentages? so the moment they're shifting around 18 percent. just depending on where you look 1718 percent. i am 2nd, which is quite, quite significant right there. a head of the s p d, the social democrats who are the governing party in berlin, the head of the, the government here. so at the moment, if there was an election on sunday, they would be 2nd. and that's remarkable, isn't that i mean when you think that they've come from the start to just over 10 years ago. yeah. and there are a fall right potty. yeah. has never gone before and it'd be the 2nd largest parties . yeah, i mean, it does, it does bring back memories for me. so. so back in 2013, i think it was the 1st national elections that they run in. and i was at their election policy that night and they just squeaked in the lows of magic. 5 percent

numbers of 5 percent is the threshold and the german elections, electrical systems that you need to get into a problem and they just fell short of that. but they basically beat on a climb since then within the last election in 2021 they came in that just over 10 percent, i think it was 10.4. if i remember rightly, stephanie, now we're looking at in the ballpark of 18, still to a lot of, you know, listeners around the world, they might think, okay, 18 percent. so sound like that much. why is this a significant number? i think 1st of all, many people didn't expect that the party started as in like an empty and try to ease you party was all about economy, about the european union, and then they went further and further to the right. and now they're like, i'm at their most extreme point in the history of the party. and with that program they, they again, all this support and it's not like the people vote for them only because they one

to one to express that they are not happy with the government but also because they are a good behind the program of the parties. so that has changed, and as you mentioned, it's a very, very steady rise. so you can expect that they will rise for the end of them at one, at some point. it will be a problem for the, for the system. yeah, so obviously we're going to talk a bit about the program today. we're also going to talk about the future prospect. but yeah, 18 percent and in what is a pretty highly fragmented electrical system is strong, right. as you said, met, i mean that's 2nd place behind the concept is the c to use the mainstream center right party, which is a little over 30 percent. so definitely a powerful play and they've just kind of had a milestone, haven't they? earlier this month they picked at least vital as the candidate for chancellor mess you. why is that an important milestone was that they've picked somebody to be

a candidate for chocolate and say one or 2 was about at least vital and that's quite significant, isn't it? because like, traditionally you don't place a chance to canada unless you think that you have a steak or some a claim on power. and she actually said that she said, you know, we, they say look, should be. so we looked at the polls and said, we're the 2nd strongest party in the country. therefore, you can no longer keep us out of power. you can no longer sideline us, you know, that we have this firewall, the front of my one in germany where potties basically have this, the democratic sent to say that we're not going to deal with if the she says that that's on, on really on, justified given high, popular the on so and a bit to basically acknowledge their support in the polls. they said we're going to place a tons like tons of it, but it's also, i think, kind of like strategic isn't it? because they're trying to be know that they'll get more of the should to and it kind of like helps us fido positional. so for someone who's got mode, right, right. she's got she's, she's no longer on the fringes, although you know, we'd be able to pull test posse, but she said, look, look, i'm

a candidate for time. so i don't believe in it. so it's a project to show from. no, she didn't get a little more time through that. i guess some in the upcoming election. and yeah, i mean, i think that's an important thing to stress about that position that will probably be talking about this throughout the po. cost today is that they are a policy that the other party, so 5 said we don't want to touch. and that's important in the german system because usually one party never runs germany by itself. you always have to co have coalition, right? and currently we have a coalition that has recently broken up. it was a 3 way of coalition to prove to be unstable. but none of the main street parties have said that they would work with a f t each. definitely just quickly. why is that? why did they no one to touch it? yeah, good question. um one thing is that the, they are, they don't work together like the program if the, if the but doesn't correspond with any other program of the other mainstream parties. so that's one thing. and the other thing is that they have to signal to

voters that if, for example, they vote for the to do the christian democrats. so that's the conservative cl conservatives, right? so that it wouldn't be a possibility and that in the end they would have a coalition with the f d. so we'll just have to be sure that their words wouldn't be used by this kind of coalition. that's one thing. and also am and germany, the, the f d is viewed as a very, very different party from all the auto state, the strategy, the program, the things they, they say the people and they present as the lead important politicians. and that they are part of very, very different spectrum and then all the, all the apologies. yeah. so essentially the other party saying this party is too far to the right. we need to keep it out because that could be dangerous, particularly given japanese history, as of course, the country that that was ruled by the nazis and, and adult. hitler. ok,

so some of that background we're going to touch on the elements of that later. but let's start looking in detail about the positioning and the selection of and why they popular and what they want to achieve. so we've got a sound bite from alice vital who we've just mentioned on the day when she was named as the candidate for counselor. and i think in december i, she pretty well expresses um, you know, an important part of that, of that platform that now we're going to hear written chapman 1st and then i'm going to read it back in english and then we can talk about it. okay, let's hear that sounds like thoughts land is in, i know zine us best inclusion via hub and them's, i'm land sponsors, java also quoted soon on i'm put in tones, loosened up. it's just all right, so you could hear in the tone of voice that this is alice vital saying things and i'll good m. so she said, germany is one that in one of its worst crises,

we've gone through 20 years of grand coalitions and traffic light coalitions. so referring back to the, to the governments of the main street and governments of the past. and she and say, and we have crashed into the ground. a stephanie, how wide spread is that opinion? how many do a lot of germans think that things of that, but many germans do. the question is a, that's really the reality in this country. i think when you, when you ask, why do people vote for the f d? it's the one part has a anger and one part of the fear. and when you look at the economy and there is fear of a weakening economy of him having to suffer from, from loss of jobs from being able to, to pay your rent. so there are many people who fear, but are still in a place where they can pay you all they need to pay and survive. and then it's for,

for many people who vote for the sd, it's rather feeling than then in reality. but the feeling is that the if the ink cartridges that and the picture that paint is one of the, the country that doesn't function any more of a state that's, that's not good for the, for the citizens. then of a government to work against their own people. so it's very much about feelings i'd say and about fear or matthew, would you want to come in on that? what was interesting, right? cuz she's no, she didn't, she didn't mention the economy. she didn't have to mention anything there cuz it was just, it could have been about society. you know, this is the, the so basically that you have a very broad message. it's like on happiness. so there, there you look at like what feasible thing for the theater, you know, to pull test filters for right nationalist for sure. people who feel like the question, democrats the center, right potty, the basically has govern germany for much for the last 70 years. and they've basically betrayed them when it comes to like conservatism. people that from the

social democrats working class for those who maybe feel that the social democrats have drifted too much the center. i don't really reflect the mood and the attitudes and the opinions and that the needs the working class. so we have to just most thing, all of these voters off by so new if we the negative may tone message is just, everything's terrible it's, it's really bad. the only way to, to go of this whole is to vote for us the cool tennis of a party. there's never been in power, which is kind of part of like the po box or part of the challenge that they will have because they've never had to govern. so yeah, i think, i mean to, when i hear the vital is quote that a kind of reminds me of some of the things that donald trump said. so i was just in the us for a couple months covering the election day. and, you know, he's always saying it's the democrats destroying a country. he's kind of, uh, you know, what, what they would call us on a locally to this is, is kind of driving the country into the ground. and it is striking to see the power

allows between the us and, and john, if you look at the opinion polls, so the latest opinion poll conducted by the organization that we work with, the dw says that the economy is the top issue. the top concern for votes has, by a long way, so 45 percent of folks saying that that's the top concern. second one being immigration, and refugees, and the 3rd one being foreign policy and piece and, and international stability. these are pretty much $1.00 to $1.00. the same issues that were driving supporters of donald trump as well into most recent election so, so big compared to echoes to but the economic situation in germany is worse than in the united states, isn't it? they had inflation and comment, but the united states had significant economic growth. stephanie, in the last 2 years, there's basically be no economic growth in germany, right? yeah, that's it. but we are coming. i think you have to bear in mind that we're getting

out of the corona prizes and the government that now collapsed um one to 2 at the stage with a different like energy system. and they wanted to have a new structure and that had some costs. that's true and the question was if you think that's um, that's something worth achieving or not the next government might do it differently . but i think you can explain all that and doesn't have to be incorrect or right. but the question is, if, if the, if the only the only thing that's important here is as the economic growth, it's very, very important point. but i think you have to see the, the, the, the big on program of the coalition behind that. yeah. so i think if we can just spell it out because yeah, there's a big part of the criticism that the 50 has is that the current government is being

too focused on the green transition on, on phasing out fossil fuels. and that this is cost the german economy too much. yeah. there's like there's, there's really interesting parallels between donald trump and then you have, do you think in terms of the messaging the us, i think it's for me, i think it's slightly different, right? they have the mass of stimulus account, economic stimulus in the us, um on dividing. right. so jeremy, how, how does not being a willingness to spend a lot of money on the economy and people sense not, right? that's be non stop debates and germany about how to budget, how to kind of so our budget share because the government doesn't wanna borrow money. the other thing is like there's a paradox of data about like the economy is everyone's, hasn't, this is like the economy is in a bad state, like 80 percent. i can't remember what if it goes off of that. then like the same study, ask people about in a personal financial situation and, and that was different like that so, so the power adults is that they were saying actually it is. it's giving me a good it's, it's, i'm doing well, right? so it's only 9 percent of people said look like financially,

i'm not doing well at the moment. so there is a difference. and i think you can attribute that to the fact that the rich like. so we're not in a kind of muscle procession, jeremy, but we're definitely, there's a change, right? there's the, there's a lot of, there's the economic, sort of the energy transition which is, which is kind of going to drop pressure on jeremy with. it's like a car industry which has basically been if you like one of the drivers of growth in the last 70 years. so people can sense that something is happening. it's not yet come, but the feeler is coming down the time the way down the road. and the other thing is like a last months we would just have like a headline of the headline of what this company entails. no, going to be building factories here. there's companies like volkswagen is going to be something going factories and so there is like this economic use is like bad, but it hasn't yet hit people in their pocket. so obviously you've got inflation for sure. but like nobody's like there's not this kind of real depression. so let's move on to the last part and we want to talk about some of the people to at least vital is the name is come up the most today. so we will also link to,

to our schools about her in the notes for this. but 1st of all, like stephanie and my, you both sat to often in the same room with a um, you know, in background conversations getting a sense of the past and just give me a quick sense, like, who is the other side or what, what was the vibe you get from it's a really good question. i'm not sure if i have the words portion, but i kind of sort of try to to describe it. and i think one thing we didn't mentioned yet is um that she's not only the face of the party right now and the candidate, but she's also the one who i realized that she is. she put everyone into, into his place or her place and with her and was it possible to present the 50 for the 1st time is a party that is not like a party of calles and of interest. beds are working against each other so. so just to chip in, so yeah, i mean there's been in fighting over many years and the f

d but, but in the, in the resolution of that in fighting, it's essentially the, the, the more hard line people who find out too much of the tone. yeah. but, and it's also of, of the picture of a, like a chaos party that became a part of you could have built a government with that when you're just looking at the people who remain. and i think she, she has the party in a very firm grip and she is at the she works together with the team coupon of of them, for example, when the co pallet's the cut on the boat to exec cheese, the sol john. so the candidate. yeah. and it's the one like who, yeah that they are working together, but she's the face and she's the one when some, when there's some trouble in the party, she tries to solve these, these problems. and she's a very interesting character that she doesn't actually, as far as i know, live in germany. she is the 2 really voted on germany,

but she lives with a woman in switzerland. and um, so that doesn't really correspond with the, with a party of user values. but um, so just to go into that, so she's gay and she was putting uh, uh, bringing up children together. but the potty has a kind of a pretty traditional view of heterosexual marriage so. so this is one of the intriguing things about about her as a person. yeah, that's interesting, right. um, i talked to a, an expert some some days ago and was very interesting to me and said that not, not on a political point of view, but you could think of an america who wasn't lost by her party. but it was necessary to, to have her there. and it's the same with what divided. she doesn't represent all the values the, the f d stands for, but the people in the party respect her because she gets the job done. joe, and it works. and, and it was interesting that she did in the recent press conference refer to her

personal life and but sort of rejected any implication the just because she gave she is gay, would mean that she would be progressive or work or anything like that. so. so emphasizing that, i just want to bring in last time by and then i'll go to come to you met so. so this is another quote that at least vital majoring that that conference when when she was named as the parties a candidate for chancellor. let's just listen to this so we can open it up. yvonne, i'm posted by the linda slot and that's also the cost at a time until the time of kabbalah top, the divine islands medina took on specific tv. okay, so just to translate that so this is kind of carrying on from the scene where you had at the very beginning just saying that kind of germany is going downhill. she said, we used to be a prosperous country that our grandparents and parents had built up. we used to be

a country where the future nice for you think about that. i mean, that might sound pretty, you know, to us and pretty much in the same vein is what we had the but i think the interesting, what in there is grandparents. right. so at least vital it was born, i think in 1979. so the grandparents generation for her, she's a little bit younger to meet my grandparents generation to. that's the level 2 generation. and in fact i at least vitals and grandfather was a member of the nazi party. so to use that expression, saying that germany was built up by grandparents. i think most jemma politicians wouldn't focus on that generation. right. i think so. i mean, that would jump talk to me when i, when i heard the 1st time i felt much on usual to you to, to reference your ground princess. i can of to be almost in german political life. because obviously there's a deep shaven germany about that. broadly across the chapter in history is the

shape of people would accept that happen between the years. 1930 to 1945 was appalling, terrible. with the f d. there was a kind of, there's a strong within the part and has a tendency to kind of just throw in douglas, look like that. you have it wherever, whether it's like on a slide to just this and you don't want, you don't have to be ashamed of everything that happened with it was your you don't have to be ashamed of your ancestors. and did you notice it from time to time because it's like it's throwing in it's, it's kind of deniable, you know, it's, it sounds and ok, this thing also come on. but other people do it too much. maximilian class, someone is really important when the party just the other day kind of was on the stage and he said it will you ancestors on criminals? and this kind of was a know to, to the incident where he basically said that, you know, everyone who was part of the ss was a criminal which got him into deep, deep trouble with the party. in fact, he was expelled from the, from the, the executive of the party, and it goes potty,

the se kicked out of my reading the pens. good thing of the use the result. so he kind of knows each player file because, and that's part of the strategy of the sd, is to do that. so 2 things. so this kind of what the, if, if you get to explicit, you can get yourself kicked types of things. but if you, if your implicit annual meeting, then you are okay. then you can also get a very explicit, for example, a of you on hook up and data of the thing in a f d a is very exclusive and he got to find in court for that he quoted a nazi sentence and a several times. and to present, and i'm not, you know, which is not really believable for a history teacher which is and, and so you also kind of get very explicit and you don't get to kicked out. so yeah, just to explain that. so this was so beautiful. okay, who's another of these? not very powerful vega, i think, so we'll see if we can link to to an article about him in the,

in the notes with this in eastern germany and that important base of for the a f d that he's somebody who's also kind of played with language and sometimes using and the fact that in germany there were certain expressions that you're not allowed to say publicly because they were used by the nazis. and he actually find himself in court for that, but not just once, repeatedly, twice, and chords and everybody who would be gentle sir. yeah, yeah. so and, and claiming that he was unaware of what he was saying. so it's a kind of take it taken as a whole this, this map jumps like this is all kind of part of the strategy to break. that's a bose just to just play with language to them and to, to broaden the parameters of what you can see and do in public life. and it's like it's a strategist out there. and this is, this is an action when you hear all this, why don't see things like that. it's a sorry, no, go ahead. it's not on the potty 1. 1 thing the voters,

he is the feeling of not being able to say what, what you want to say. so that's part of the narrative. the government says you are not allowed to to say what you're thinking, what's right and what's true. and the party gives you the impression that if they formed a government, it would be all different. you would be finally free to say and think what you want . so implying that it's kind of either it's, they don't want to accept these kind of to abuse or is just as sort of a form of political correctness or something. okay? so, but these are longstanding to boost that deeply embedded in german society. and as we approach the end here, how does this affect their electability to how many, you know, how many people that they drawing in with this kind of thing compared to the number of people that turning off. so like so, and there's a, there's a study that pays, i remember from spring of this year with kevin motors. watch how many of you would absolutely not thoughts the f d. and i think that a move was around 70 percent. so that suggested that there's a 30 percent pool of filters that they can tap into. and i think the challenges for

the idea of this kind of image problem when it comes to the fact that they've got these extreme factions. the fact that they, we haven't mentioned that, but the security services in germany here, i believe with them. i kind of suspected case of right wing extremism. there's a potential that it could be that could be fund and there used when is a so it is a kind of proven case of the right wing extremism that are new, not cheese, and they're around this vs. so that's a big problem to the parties. it kind of looks to become more like to the other, and then then you've just got those kind of this, this kind of a, on this difficulty with the, the firewall, the brand mo and germany's like, party. all the parties don't want you to do business with them, which is kind of kind of fatal in a consensus politics environment. so yeah, and you have to bear in mind that it seems to change with the generation standards and arrangements. i'm who, who start to vote, the don't know a different system they, they don't remember that there was a time without the sd and some, don't remember why it might be

a problem to just say the things, the, the, if the says so when you, when you're off the young people, um they, they don't have such a big problem. it's not such a big taboo. and assemblies, it gets more and more normal to, to, to vote for it and especially in the eastern states. so it's a, yeah it's, it's progressing. so yeah, and that has to be more of a striking thing, some recent elections, the amount of support from young people that they've been getting. so let's, let's move to wrap this up. i want to get some predictions from you both. so 1st of all, we have this 5 selection coming up soon. we, we have polling, right? 18 percent, they, you know, is there any reason to doubt that polling or is, does that look fairly solid? that's probably the ballpark that they going to end up in the i think right now it sounds very solid as a kind of corresponds with the european elections. um they have many, many problems at that time. so they might be stronger now. and it really depends on

what happens in the next 2 months, but i think it's might be the the correct number. yeah. yeah. and so 18 percent is we hardly at that. could that puts them in 2nd place? so let's think through a kind of a scenario. so. so the 2nd place they, they not going to get into a government because we know, or if the other parties have said, you know, you're on the other side of a 5 will. what kind of government is likely to come out of this coming election met and what then would be the role of the if the with employment. so it brings it back to the beginning of the podcast because i, i think that the numbers looked like the most like the government. correct me if i'm wrong, is a grand coalition of the 2 main parties that i've govern gemini, for most to the last 20 years. the social democrats on the question democrats, that's like puts the f d as the main party of opposition. if the polls are right, which is great for them because it sharpens their profile and, and allows them to position themselves for the next 4 years as the alternative to

the same old same old, especially as germany undergoes a period which we all expect like of the industrialization now that will be difficult, economically, it's going to be a tough few years and they're in the if these team is 2029 to be in power, then whether that's feasible when you still have this firewall run them, i don't know. but.