the, the, the times they are a changing the us these days sometimes looks like an opponent of countries that tried to defend that freedom and germany no longer seems to care about that. welcome to this new reality. to, to see a dorothy. so i want to say this very clearly is in view of the threat swell freedom and peace on our confidence that the same us know apply to our defense. whatever it takes about it takes whatever it takes big. what so this week from japanese like to the next town. so i have a couple of minutes from the conservatives. it's a massive plan. germany wants to re invest massively and then press start to take up huge amounts of debt and do away with the buy. now infamous debt break. so just

a quick reminder meds is currently trying to form a coalition government with a social democrats. and so they announced this plan together, but the juicy bit finish met had ruled a lot of thought out during the election campaign period. and there are headless before this defense and infrastructure bazooka come to come reality. plus, even if it does get approval, empowerment, what would gemini have to spend this money on? we will give you a full bell and briefing on all of this. and this episode, and to break it all down, i have my colleagues 5 button on here from if it's it sunday newspapers, thank you very much for coming to us 200. thank you for the invitation. and we're also joined by benjamin who can start from political sync tank hdp. he's on the line from key view crane. so let's start with you ben. how did that announcement from bell and go down and keep where you are right now as well. so be fair, there is a lot of news right now which,

which can be quite overwhelming. i think it's seen as an encouraging sign in particular, following the entire nightmare that transpired with president savanski is the oval office meeting and everything that has happened since then on all the signals that have been sent by the us. so having this commitment from germany, it won us ukraine's most important allies in europe and, and also signaling this understanding that we are living in a new reality. i think it's uh, receive a positive way here. but again, uh the, the new this can be overwhelming and hard to digest. yeah. is happening at lightning speed. all of those roles. what was your initial reaction when you had that done now? so maybe that's a good place from as other services. while it's really a so called site and then the, the ending of the transfer, the turning point is it's on the side said it's a 3 is

a go back to 3 years ago. it was all in little and it changing time. and now it's really from, especially for german politics oriented towards stability and dep, right. info. so on, it's really a turning point of gentleman politics. so before we do the analysis, can you break it down for us? what was in that plan that they announced? yeah. first of all, uh the dep rake is killed for all the military expenses. only one percent of the u. d. p is in a normal budget and the rest is limited and trusted. they had this cost if it should be $400.00 or $500.00 billions of euro's at. but i think the idea of was if a blinding me, a putting knows that germany is able to buy 2000 tags. he though built

3000 and so he can calculate what we can afford or not to afford. so it was the decision tool to make no limits for that. and on the other hand, to balance this for domestic politics and for the social democrats. and also for the population who could ask, well, re, uh, the kind of thoughts, uh, the tags and applicants for the military and so on. and a bunch of you have a right, right, if it's doesn't work and so on. we have another 500000000000 euros for infrastructure, and that's uh the, the other parts of the game. and so it's um, and of course it's an opportunity for the general consent to spend money for other things. because now infrastructure and mandatory doesn't count any

more for the debt break. so there's more money for penzance and all other things the government would like to do for low a texas for example, which was also a thing in the election campaign at central point or for the cd. you the courts over there. yeah, and of course this is a massive policy you 10, i don't get into that a bit later, but i want to get the reaction from keith again. so ben, if you could give us an idea, is that going to be the thing that is needed as a message from germany to tell russia, hey, there's just no point in trying to build up your army in a way that you, that you're thinking about potentially attacking a baltic countries say, or test nato 5 article on an, you know, common defense. is that one of these signs that i need now, how would you assess that?

it is, i think it's definitely one of the assignments that are needed. i don't think that by, in itself will be sufficient. so 1st of all, we have to figure out how to turn. there's no unlimited funding for the military into the, into actual action on the ground that stops russia from even thinking about certainly further aggression against nato members. you members, for instance, as you mentioned in the policy, and as we know from the original 100000000000, especial funds were for the military that the traffic lights that call issue implemented together with other parties in 2022 after the team, especially in some pipe so the government right now, yeah, yeah, that is not without. it's showing this, right. so you have to spend this money, you have to spend it on things that actually have an impact on right now. and. and

beyond that, i think the german military spending of, of that magnitude is a welcome development. but again, it's not going to be bias self sufficient. other countries in europe still do, we'll have to do similar things. we also have to think about other components of our approach towards a, towards ukraine, and at what we do to enable ukraine to which stand russian regression. so this is about the sanctions regime. this is about a financial support to ukraine. this is about enabling a ukraine to get access to certain weapons that we may actually not be producing in europe. so it's a welcome. it's a welcome step and it's a massive turnaround, as you, as you outline. but i think we will have to continue to do this and the more for the foreseeable future, because we live in a very different yeah. now. so that's all true and let's see one more risk. now as

the military funding in germany is limited, because of that, it sounds funny, but it could reduce the political pressure for buying military equipment. if they would have said it'd be spend $500.00 billions for the military. that would have been political pressure to spend that money because best bet number, but now there's no number. and i see the risk if there should be a ceasefire in ukraine. the public opinion, at least in western europe, could change again and say, well, that's all not so risky. and we don't know if 14 verbally attack the baltic states or whatever it is. so it's not so important anymore to, to invest so much money if uh for the army. okay, so let's talk about low as handles in detail because there are lots of pads of cost . yeah. okay. and i've, this is a constitutional rule. let's talk about the deck break fast. right? because you wouldn't need to change the deck break in order to exempt defend

spending. yeah. from it, you know, this is something with any government needs to set majority in parliament. and the plan by the social democrats, of the conservatives, is now to use the current, so i'm going to call them and instead of the new parliament. so can you describe, why would they do that? why would they try and rush this decision? yeah, yeah, the problem is that's the new problem and outgoing from the election. so we had a 2 weeks ago. i have a b no to suck majority for the parties of the political center. uh they would have to use a ride to being extreme roderick potty. if the all the less thing potty deluca to build a to tech majority. and that will be very difficult, perhaps with the link it would be possible to make exceptions from the bank,

but not for the military because it's of why the pessimistic party. and so i see a of the, against the, if the is very much pro russian, the pro russian and pro trump. and they will never agree to uh, to, to me spending, which is against russia and against the populist and totalitarian waves because they pop off and they are part of this trump and pushing game. they are going to have a lot more members sitting in the next one. this talks. yeah, and that's what i was told. so in the next business card, it would not be possible to make any changes from the debt break, at least not for the military. and so for this maps and to it's preferable, especially democratic criminal poplar, decided to make this attempt to do it with the board parliament. it's a, it's

a of costs from the, from the point of view of the constitution that's correct. but from a 4 digit code view, it's a little bit strange to do it after the election because the conservative party and for this maps in the election campaign already said no, we don't want to change, is that bragging. so and that's a problem is now of course i need the green potty, but i think the green party at the end will agree that all they are in support. they, i agree and so on. and they are, it is also important to explain of course, to the audience, because it's not self evident that the green party is the strongest a political party and just supporting the ukraine. very much involved in the social democrats, for example. so they agree with that. but i think they will, but they want to show of costs that they make for excellence. and in this infrastructure package,

and they want to have more climate action. but i think at the end that will be not an obstacle which is uh, yeah, not really an obstacle. yeah. and some people are saying no, essentially what match is suggesting is something that he rolled out during the election campaign. but he's now translating essentially the greens election manifesto. yeah. real time politics is yes, the approximate a and and much more. oh, he's been because then the greens talked about modifying the dep brake. they didn't speak about 500000000000. so something like that took some of the, the idea of was very smooth, much smaller balance. but i think that this one sign of the tradition of the gentleman, conservatives, of christian democrats, that they were always very pragmatic and very open to, to change this one to change of the policies. even the great chance less such as a coordinate on our him would court all, i'm going to america this i personally,

i didn't think that for his mouth is such a pragmatic person. so here is 3 bits surprise by using those to be the chancellor who doesn't make any come for me. yeah, exactly, exactly. exactly as a biographer off on the american, i always was a little bit skeptical about him and we of course we can talk afterwards about the problems of his package, but that he, i think it is positive. but he showed this sense of pragmatism at the beginning, you're quoting about the taxes, was it? yeah. did you see the film? the yeah. and um, uh theres uh in that song that he says uh when the water is going up, you have to swim. uh, not as a but not a sink like a like a stone. i see that was uh, now the, the argument is a justification to say well,

with the scene and the white house last friday with the trump and savanski a time. this is times have changed and so we have to swim. that's more of the days, right. but i think of cause a little bit. it's a also, uh they, they, they pretend as well or they use a mouse and the social democrats, they use these changing times for the purposes for, for using the fisco pressure on the new government. yeah, i mean it's just to come back to a volt dylan for just the everybody i think has to watch this film. yeah. and because it's just a fantastic book trial. yeah. yeah. yeah. i know i know the of the, of the off that period, the area and i just the wow it is so high you topical again in the cuban missile crisis. yeah. oh, all these threats that and for a long time just seem to be able to contain, you know,

the threats of nuclear. yeah, but, but i think it's, it's, uh, the 2nd sense that it's very much difficult because at least off the cuban crisis at people the top at times are changing, but they are changing to the better. now we all have been pressing the times. we're changing to the us. yeah. lots of people backpedaling, you know. okay. one last had well, before we go back to ben and keith and is of course the people in frederick should match his own policy. there are lots of people who are skeptical. they come pained on that tunes as we stand, so we want to keep the debt break in place. we need fiscal stability, and this is also how they manage to keep the pro business, the liberal f t p. parties small. they took away the debts, they say no, no, no. if you have a wonderful day, right, you can to keep to stay in the boat for all. yeah. not for that. yeah. with the result that the government coalition partners now out has been to new york,

then not going to come in again. and so of course, there are lots of people within the conservatives who are escape. yeah. but you're going to be able to convince them. do you think, you know, things like that? so as i already mentioned, the christian democrats, i really pragmatic property that at the end, i don't think that they have the tons now after only 3 years of a position that one of them becomes transfer again. and at the end, i don't think that they would risk the power at the office of the child. and for the, for the criticism to that. i think the point now is today and tomorrow they are talking with a social democrats about all the of us. so we help as techs and so on, we have to advance that we're recording on says day and the 6th of months in the morning. so we can cover anything that's happening in brussels on assess the

afternoon because of course, decisions. yeah. also have an impact on of what's happening in member states and, but this is something we're going to be focusing on the discussion here in berlin. as ralph was saying, there is going to be a special session inbound his talk next week. and of course coalition negotiations of the prep for the talks, they are under way and that that and then go yeah, yeah, thank you for the explanation. i think it's important, but yeah, if you want to youtube and then just say what are they talking? but i made the decision in the not covering that. yeah. yeah. uh that, so. uh yeah, and uh, but i think the point is that as a southern pressure preferred as mounts to obtain a successes in, in the condition talks about other topics such as lower texas migration and so on. the source of ex pencils. and i think migration could be difficult as well with

the social democrats and on the repeating level. but i think at the end that will be low of texas. but because that's an very important point for the, for the christian democrats were critical. but at the end that leads to even higher expands of cause and even high had to have if it's true, if you rise the expenses of the state and if you low of the income of the state of costs and then it would be even bigger deficit that does, that's uh the i were in the off the story. yeah. let's see where they've been and keith agrees been your financial expense. and you've also in the past, for example, i helped prepare the world economic outlook. so does those plan make sense? it does, but for i guess it as i want to make 2 additional points. one is on on this the idea that the incoming government is also using this crisis situation to

basically generate enough funds for uh for the work that their coalition wants to do. i mean, if we look back to the outgoing governments at the fundamentals thing, but ultimately brots down this coalition is that there was not enough money to paper over any conflict between the parties of it. at least 2 tional court's ruling on the, on the special funds. right. so, and any new government would have, eventually faced this problem. but there is simply not enough money to deal with the investment backlog that we accumulated for. i don't know how many decades or the additional merits military spending that is needed and that was going to be needed without the oval office and disaster and,

and other measures that are needed to get the german economy back on. so i think yes, they're using this as a bit of a as an excuse as well, but this was always going to happen now. um, i think what is happening in berlin right now. it shows how much the ground has actually shifted in a very short period of time. and this is not just about a free church merits uh, changing his mind about these things. um, but you know what we've seen in just about a week since, since the oval office seen is that clearly not only this, the united states willing or the trump administration rather to throw ukraine under the pos in a morally bankrupt fashion. that is hard to describe, but i think the realization in europe is that the trumpet administration is happy to do this as well with uh, any other uh, of the u. s. s. allies in europe. and he, we shouldn't forget that at the same time that, that, that this is being communicated and that's 80 vans came to the munich security

conference and how that, you know, quite the horrible speech the us is also engaged in a trade for with it's to biggest trading partners on the north american continents, so they know this all that's kind of into the bigger picture. and i think what will happen, what is happening in berlin right now. and the chase at which it is happening, illustrates that, that the tech tonic shift is really remarkable. and that your young leaders, fortunately appear to understand that they are basically on their own and that they have to figure out the rest of that is coming from russia. by themselves, and it's not no longer a theoretical argument that is ukraine uses this wherever then russia will come after us. we just don't know anymore if the united states would stand up for any of its allies in europe. should there be any kind of russian aggression to what's the politics states or whatever kind of hybrid, a step of hybrid warfare. and it does mean a trump needs to officially withdraw from nato. he just has to communicate that

he's not going to lift a finger and, and i think that realization has set it up. now, i thought your question on the merits of this plan, i think this spending is simply needed. um and, and you know, i said not only is this about fitness maps, changing his mind about that. but it's also about the procedure of using to print on this talk to past these constitutional changes. i think we're just beyond these kind of considerations. and this is a message that has been well understood in cuba for obvious reasons, for of, for about 3 years or more. it has been understood in poland and in the politics and other uh, other eastern european, un nato members. and we were a little bit late to the party, but i think the monthly rate, you know, on the uh, on the merits um, and i think it is a sensible approach. and i also think it's,

it's possible for germany do that for several reasons. first of all, because of that that break, we kind of have reduced our debt to g d p ratio a quite considerably since say, you know, 2010 or they are both, despite the additional money that was needed for the european that prices, despite the additional money that was needed for public release. so germany isn't quite a good fiscal position. yeah, i'm like from so it's totally right when you look at the defense, for example. and yes, then you look at the bond market and use for german government bonds. went up by like 30 basis points in one day. but, you know, considering that we're planning to for 800000000000 euros or a trillion euro steps. that's not so much. and investors, i'm also considering what's happening was pissed the policy in the us. c, german funds. so as a very safe haven, and i don't think there's going to be any problem to actually borrow this money on

the market. um, if it generates which it likely will additional economic growth or economic growth at all. considering the current situation that we're in, and then i think this is manageable over the foreseeable future in terms of the kind of desperate and that the german government is. he's going to ask me, well, but i think of course, that's true for germany, but you have to have a look here to the other european countries because the drum, your pin defense is not only a topic of germany alone. and i'm not sure if it's in the front u. k is able to spend so much more money for defense because they already have that high adapt rate or the depth to the p ratio. and so it will be quite difficult actually. okay. it is in deep false cook problems. we don't have so much. i'll look

to that from the continental european prospectus because they are not a member of the us own. but you can stop me. i was traveling with the death crisis of this country already before. and then you turn off international politics and the same goes for funds for president especially. and also he can afford the pen breathing down his neck that going to have elections there and to use time. and also what is true, i mean ben, your in keys. so of course, your perception is the threat is tangible, right? it is literally tons of will for you every day. the further away you all from nato's eastern fine at the truth. i just wanted to, to say, as the last week, i feel it the only country if it's a little bit better off economic coming at the moment of spain, but spend just so much so far away. i'm not sure if a span feel so much threatened by russia as rowdy nipple too. yeah. well,

but you know, i mean, the good, sorry. yeah. you were going to say something been on, on a key if prospective of, of course, all of this it hits home almost literally that error. there is an error. it's basically every night or several times. and then it depends a little bit of what kind of error load it is, is additional headphone, okay, that is fine. you go back to sleep, is it the ballistic missile? then you probably should not go back to sleep and the trump administrators currently doing things that will be somewhat difficult for europe to offset. so the, the, the, the cost to military support includes goods that are, are difficult for us to replace, especially air defensive systems. and that may inspire us policy. so morally to pro deplorable, because this is not about allowing ukraine any counter offensive operations that may not want to see. while he negotiates with the student ends of lensky. but it

actually means more people are going to die on a daily basis. um, there was the news about the cost to intelligence sharing. this is also a very, it also has an impact on, on ukrainian air defense and the, and the protection of the civilian population and protection of civilian infrastructure. the, the winter went better than expected in terms of the electricity situation. but we, i think i should all remember what happens in spring of last year, when uh, when congress was holding up a u. s. military support and it was not a sufficient defense themselves. the russians basically, the bombs ukraine's energy infrastructure to bits within a couple of weeks, which created a terrible situation for the civilian population, but also for the ukrainian economy at over the summer and into the fall. and it's gone a little better than expected right now. um, but that doesn't mean that this needs to stay that way. um i also wanted to say the

point that was made about other countries. i'm not being able to do what germany is currently doing is a very valid one. um i think if you look at so markets assess of the, the east countries a solvency and it's, it's quite um, it's a quite tends to trace we, um, you know, that was with what happened with u. k. government on deals with when these trust me used for this many, but there are french bond deals that are its claims higher than re ones depending on the situation in the national assembly in which government is being brought down this week. and it will be significantly harder for these countries to, to borrow this much money and spend more. i want to throw in a little bit of a wild card here because there is around $340000000000.00 in russian silver and assets lying around,

including $200000000000.00 me in the european union at ford and should be used to pays for ukraine's defends against russian aggression and ultimately for your opinion, economic risk reconstruction, then hogan stock, and rav bowman. thank you very much and i think plenty more to talk about. but for now, for today. so this episode of selim briefing, we've covered a lot of ground. if you've got questions, do send those at your comment and so you can do that on all major podcast platforms, specify upload cetera, but you can also watch shows on youtube dw news. and i say thank you very much for your interest. do subscribe until next time the people who risk their lives to make this documentary and smuggle the footage out of the country.

a ron inside the protest movement. to all the people slicing the rays each despotism faces of angus dogs. march 19th on the w. b. c is d w use and these around top storage. european union leaders of being joined by ukrainian president flooded me so landscape. the crisis talks and to boosting europe's defense spending and showing up support for you quite. the meeting in brussels comes just days off to the west. pause, military aid and intelligence sharing with cave european nations are under pressure following the trump administration's decision to distance the us from your pm security. donald trump.