hello. instead i had to tell claudia and franco is gone. 5 years off to cousin, we remember window road stood still stops much 8 on dw the the times they are a changing us these days sometimes looks like an opponent of countries that tried to defend that freedom and germany no longer seems to care about that. welcome to this new reality to to see a dorothy. so i want to say this very clearly is in view of the threats. well, freedom and peace on our confidence that the same us know apply to our defense. whatever it takes about it takes whatever it takes big, what so this week from germany's likely next john's, let's go to this met from the conservatives. it's a massive plan. germany wants to re, um, invest massively and then press start to take up huge amounts of debt and do away

with the buy. now infamous debt break. so just a quick reminder, meds is currently trying to form a coalition government with a social democrats. and so they announced this plan together, but the juicy bit footage match had ruled a lot of that out. during the election campaign period and there are headless before this defense and infrastructure bazooka can become reality. plus, even if it does get approval, empowerment, what would gemini have to spend this money on? we will give you a full bell and briefing on all of this and this episode, and to break it all down, i have my colleague hi fun here from f, as in sunday newspapers, thank you very much for coming to us 200. thank you for the invitation, and we're also joined by benjamin who can start from political think times d g i p. he's on the line from keith view crane. so let's start with you ben. how did that announcement from bell and go down and keep where you are right now as well? so be fair. there is a lot of news right now which,

which can be quite overwhelming. i think it's seen as an encouraging sign in particular, following the entire nightmare that transpired with president savanski is the oval office meeting and everything that has happened since then on all the signals that have been sent by the us. so having this commitment from germany, it won us ukraine's most important allies in europe and, and also signaling this understanding that we are living in a new reality. i think it's uh, receive a positive way here. but again, the news can be overwhelming and hard to digest. yeah. is happening at lightning speed. all of those roles. what was your initial reaction when you had that? and i'm sure maybe that's a good place from as other services that while it's really a so called sites and then the sending the transfer, the turning point is it's on the side said it's

a 3 years ago. but to 3 years ago it was all in little and it changing time. and now it's really a for, especially for german politics oriented toward stability and dep break info. so on it's really a turning point of gentleman politics. so before we do the analysis, can you break it down for us? what was in that plan that they announced? yeah. first of all, uh, the dep rake is killed for all the military expenses. only one percent of the u. d. p is in a normal budget and the rest is limited and trusted. they had this cost if it should be $400.00 or $500.00 billions of euro's at. but i think the idea of was, if a blinding me, a putting knows that germany is able to buy 2000 tags,

keybo built 3000 and so he can calculate what we can afford or not to afford. so it was the decision tool to make no limits for that. and on the other hand, it to balance this for domestic politics and for the social democrats and also for the population. who could ask? well, re, uh, the kind of thoughts, uh, the tags and app plans for the military and so on. and a bunch of you have a right away if it's doesn't work and so on. we have another 500000000000 euros for infrastructure. and that's uh the, the other parts of the game. and so it's, um, and of course it's an opportunity for the general government tend to spend money for other things because now the infrastructure and military doesn't count any

more for the debt break. so there's more money for penzance and all other things the government would like to do for lower taxes, for example, which was also a thing in the election campaign at central point or for the city of the conservative party. yeah, and of course this is a massive policy you 10, i don't get into that a bit later, but i want to get the reaction from keith again. so ben, if you could give us an idea, is that going to be the thing that is needed as a message from germany to tell russia, hey, there's just no point in trying to build up your army in a way that you, that you're thinking about potentially attacking a baltic countries say, or test nato 5 article on an, you know, common defense. is that one of these signs that i need now, how would you assess?

that's it is, i think it's definitely one of the signs that are needed. i don't think that by itself will be sufficient. so 1st of all, we have to figure out how to turn the snow unlimited. the funding for the military into the into actual action on the ground that stops russia from even thinking about certainly further aggression against nato. members, you members, for instance, as you mentioned in the policy, and as we know from the original $100000000000.00 and a special funds were for the military that the traffic lights, a quotation, implemented together with other parties in 2022 after the team, especially in from 5 to send the out. so you can tell them that right now. yeah. yeah, that is not without. it's showing this, right. so you have to spend this money, you have to spend it on things that actually have an impact on right now and. and

beyond that, i think the german military spending of, of that magnitude is a welcome development. but again, it's not going to be bias self sufficient. other countries in europe build do, we'll have to do similar things. we also have to think about other components of our approach towards a, towards ukraine, and at what we do to enable ukraine to which stand russian impressions. so this is about the sanctions regime. this is about a financial support to ukraine. this is about enabling a ukraine to get access to certain weapons that we may actually not be producing in europe. so it's a welcome. it's a welcome step and it's a massive turnaround, as you, as you outlined. but i think we will have to continue to do this and the more for the foreseeable future, because we live in a very different yeah. now. so that's all true and let's see one more risk. now as

the military funding in germany is, i'm limited because of that, it sounds funny, but it could reduce the political pressure for buying military equipment. if they would have said it'd be spend $500.00 billions for the military. that would have been political pressure to spend that money because the best, the best number, but now there's no number. and i see the risk if there should be a ceasefire in ukraine. the public opinion, at least in western europe, could change again and say, well, that's all not so risky. and we don't know if 14 verbally attack the baltic states or whatever it is. so it's not so important anymore to, to invest so much money if uh for the army. okay, so let's talk about low as handles in detail because there are lots of pads of cost . yeah. okay. and i've, this is a constitutional rule. let's talk about the debt break fast. right?

because you wouldn't need to change the debt break in order to exempt defend spending. yeah. from it. yeah. this is something when any government needs a te set majority in parliament and the plan by the social democrats and the conservatives is now to use. the current says, how are you going to call them and instead of the new parliament? so can you describe, why would they do that? why would they try and rush this decision? yeah, yeah, the problem is that the new problem and outgoing from the election. so we had a 2 weeks ago, i have a b, no to suck majority for the parties of the political center. they would have to use a ride to being extreme roger in pots the if the all the less thing potty de luca to build a 2000 the jewelry t. and that's what be very difficult,

perhaps with the link it would be possible to make exceptions from the bank, but not for the military because it's of why the past sophistic pottery. and so i see a of the, against the if the, it's very much pro russian, the pro russian and pro trump. and they will never agreed to uh, to, to me spending, which is against russia and against the the populist and to terry and wave because they pop off and they are part of this trump and pushing game. they are going to have a lot more members sitting in the next part of this tax. yeah, that's cost so. so in the next business card, it would not be possible to make any changes from the debt break, at least not for the military. and so for this maps and to it's preferable, socially democratic coalition partner decided to make this attempt to do it with the board parliament. it's a, it's of costs from the,

from the point of view of the constitution. that's correct. but from a 4 digit code view, it's a little bit strange to do it after the election because the conservative party and for this maps election campaign already said no, we don't want to change is that but again, so, and that's a problem is now of course, i need the green party, but i think the green party at the end will agree that all they are in support. they, i agree and so on. and they are, it is also important to explain of course, to the audience because it's not so i, we don't, but the green potty is the strongest a political party in, in just supporting the, the ukraine. very much involved in the social democrats, for example. so they agree with that, but i think they will, but they want to show off costs that they make, but in accents and in this infrastructure packets. and they want to have more

climate action. but i think at the end that will be not an obstacle which is uh, uh, yeah, not tweet an obstacle. yeah. and some people are saying now essentially what match is suggesting is something that he ruled out during the election campaign. but he's now translating essentially the greens election manifesto. yeah. real time politics is yes, the product and to and much more. he's been because then the greens talked about modifying the dep break. they didn't speak about 500000000000. so something like that took some of the, the idea of was very smooth, much smaller balance. but i think that this one sign of the tradition of the gentleman, conservatives, of christian democrats, that they were always very pragmatic and very open to, to change this and to change the policies, even the great chance list, such as

a coordinate on our him, would court all i'm going to america did this. i personally, i didn't think that for his mouth is such a pragmatic person. so here is 3 bits, surprise, but the ballast, be the chancellor who doesn't make any compromise. yeah, exactly, exactly, exactly as a biographer off on the american i or as was a little bit skeptical about him. and we of course we can talk afterwards about the problems of his package, but that he, i think it is positive. but he showed this sense of pragmatism at the beginning, you're quoting above the test as well as the yeah. did you see the film? the trinity? yeah. and um, as uh, in that song that he says when the water is going up, you have to swim. not was a not to think like a like a stone that has to be very close. uh now the,

the argument ends with justification to say, well, with the scene and the white house last friday it was a trump and savanski a time. this is times have changed and so we have to swim back to the i, but i think of cause a little bit. it's a also, uh they, they, they pretend as well, or they use maps and the social democrats, they use these changing times for their own purposes for free. it's using the fisco pressure on the new government. yeah. i mean it's just to come back to the pump dylan. so just because everybody i think has to watch this film. yeah. and because it's just a fantastic book trial. yeah. yeah. yeah. i know. i know the audi off off that period, the area and i just the wow it is so high you topical again in the cuban missile crisis. yeah. all these threats that and for a long time just seem to be able to contain, you know,

the threats of nuclear. yeah, but, but i think it's, it's uh, the sucking sense. it's very much difficult because at least off the cuban crisis, the people the thought that times are changing, but they are changing to the better. now we all have been pressing the times. we're changing to the verse. yeah, lots of people backpedaling can. okay. one last had well, before we go back to ben and keith am is of course the people in frederick should match his own policy. there are lots of people who are skeptical they campaigned on that take. and as we stand firm, we want to keep the debt break in place. we need fiscal stability, and this is also how they manage to keep the pro business, the liberal f t p potty small. they took away and made okay. that's a say no, no, no, if you have a wonderful day, right, you can to keep to stay in the boat for all. yeah. not for that. yeah. with the

result that the government coalition partners now out of funding. yeah. then not going to come in again. and so of course, there are lots of people within the conservatives who are escape. yeah, but i'm going to be able to convince them. do you think you guys like that? so as i already mentioned, the chris and democrats, i really pragmatic property that at the end, i don't think that they have the tons now after only 3 years of a position that's uh, one of them becomes transfer again. and at the end, i don't think that they would risk the power at the office of the child. and for the, for the criticism to that. i think the point now is today and tomorrow they are talking with a social democrats about all the of us. so we help as techs and so on, we have to advance that we're recording on says day and the 6th of months in the

morning. so we can't cover anything that's happening in brussels on assess the afternoon because of course, decisions. yeah. also have an impact on of what's happening in member states and, but this is something we're going to be focusing on the discussion here in berlin. as ralph was saying, there is going to be a special session inbound his talk next week. and of course college negotiations, all the prep for the talks, they are under way and that that and go yeah, yeah, thank you for the explanation. i think it's important, but yeah, if you want to youtube and then just say what are they talking? but i made the decision in the not covering that. yeah. yeah. uh that so uh yeah, and uh, but i think the point is that as a southern pressure preferred as mounts to obtain a successes in the collision talks about about topics such as lower texas migration and so on. the source of expenses. and i think migration could be

difficult as well with the social democrats and on the repeating level. but i think at the end that will be low of texas. but because that's an very important point for the, for the christian democrats were critical. but at the end that leads to even higher expands of cause and even higher heads have it's cool if you rise the expenses of the state. and if you know of the income of the state of costs and then it would be even bigger difference if that does, that's uh the i were in the off the story. yeah. let's see where they've been. and keith agrees been your financial expense. and you've also in the past, for example, i helped prepare the world economic outlook. so does those plan make sense? it does, but for i guess it as i want to make 2 additional points. one is on,

on this, the idea that the incoming government is also using this crisis situation to basically generate enough funds for uh, for the work that their coalition wants to do. i mean, if we look back to the outgoing governments, the fundamentals thing, but ultimately brots down this coalition is that there was not enough money to paper over any conflict between the parties. have at least 2 small court's ruling on the, on the special funds. right. so, and any new government would have eventually faced this problem, but there is simply not enough money to deal with the investment backlog that we accumulated for. i don't know how many decades were the additional merits military spending that is needed. and that was going to be needed without the oval office and disaster and,

and other measures that are needed to get the german economy back on. so i think yes, they're using this as a bit of a, as an excuse as well. but this was always going to happen now. um, i think what is happening in berlin right now. it shows how much the ground has actually shifted in a very short period of time. and this is not just about a free church merits uh, changing his mind about these things. um, but you know what we've seen in just about a week since, since the oval office seen is that clearly not only this, the united states willing or the trump administration rather to throw ukraine under the bus in a morally bankrupt fashion. that is hard to describe, but i think the realization in europe is that the trumpet administration is happy to do this as well with uh, any other uh, of the u. s. allies in europe. and we shouldn't forget that at the same time that,

that, that this is being communicated and that's 80 vans came to the munich security conference and how that, you know, quite the horrible speech the us is also engaged in a trade board with it's 2 biggest trading partners on the north american continent, so they know this all that's kind of into the bigger picture. and i think what will happen, what is happening in berlin right now. and the chase at which it is happening illustrates that, that the tech tonic shift is really remarkable. and that your leaders, fortunately appear to understand that they are basically on their own. and that they have to figure out the rep that is coming from russia by themselves. and it's not no longer a theoretical argument that is ukraine uses this world and russia will come after us. we just don't know anymore if the united states would stand up for any of its l as in europe. should there be any kind of russian aggression to was the politics states or whatever kind of hybrid, a step of hybrid warfare. and it doesn't mean

a trump needs to officially withdraw from nato. he just has to communicate that he's not going to lift a finger and, and i think that realization has set it up. now i thought your question on the merits of this plan, i think this spending is simply needed. um and, and you know, i said not only is this about fitness maps, changing his mind about that. but it's also about the procedure of using the friend who just talked to past these constitutional changes. i think we're just beyond these kind of considerations. and this is a message that has been well understood in here for obvious reasons for, for about 3 years or more. it has been understood in poland and in the politics and other uh, other eastern european, uh un nato members. and we were a little bit late to the party, but i think the monthly rate, you know, on the uh, on the merits. um, i think it is a sensible approach. and i also think it's,

it's possible for germany to do that for several reasons. first of all, um, because of that that break, we kind of have reduced our debt to g d p ratio a quite considerably since say, you know, 2010 or they are both, despite the additional money that was needed for the european that prices despite the additional money that was needed for public release. so germany isn't quite a good physical physician. yeah, i'm like from so it's totally right when you look at defense, for example, me directly. and yes, then you look at the bond market and use for german government funds went up by like 30 basis points in one day. but, you know, considering that we're planning to for a 100000000000 euros or a trillion euro steps, that's not so much. and investors also considering what's happening was fiscal policy in the us c, german funds. so as a very safe haven,

and i don't think there's going to be any problem to actually borrow this money on the market. um, if it generates which it likely will additional economic growth or economic growth at all, considering the current situation that we're in. and then i think this is manageable over the foreseeable future in terms of the kind of desperate and that the german government is. he's going to ask me, well, but i think of course, that's true for germany, but you have to have a look here to the other european countries because the drum, your pin defense is not only a topic of germany alone. and i'm not sure if it's in the front u. k. it able to spend so much more money for defense because they already have that high adapt rate or the depth to d p ratio. and so it will be quite difficult is actually okay,

it is in deep false cook problems. we don't have so much. i'll look to that from the continental european prospectus because they are not a member of the york zone, but you can stop me. i was traveling with the death crisis of this country already be fall, and then you are turn off international politics. and the same goes for funds for president especially. and also he can, of course, the pen breathing down his neck that going to have elections there and to use time . and also what is true, i mean ben, your in keys. so of course your perception is the threat is tangible, right? it is literally tons of will for you every day. the further away you all from nato's eastern fine. uh the truth i just wanted to to say is alexis felix. the, the only country if it's a little bit better off a economic coming at the moment of spain, but spend just so much so far away. i'm not sure if

a span feel so much threatened by russia as roddy nipple too. yeah. well, but you know, i mean the good, sorry, yeah, you were going to say something been on, on the key if prospective of, of course, all of this hits home almost literally that error. there is an error. it's basically every night or several times. and then it depends a little bit of what kind of error load it is. is it, there's a headphone and tell you that is fine. you go back to sleep. is it a ballistic missile? then you probably should not go back to sleep. and the trump administration is currently doing things that will be somewhat difficult for europe to offset. so the, the, the, the cost to military support includes goods that are, are difficult for us to replace, especially air defense systems. and that may inspire us policy so morally to pro deplorable, because this is not about allowing ukraine any counter offensive operations that

may not want to see. while he negotiates with the student ends and landscape. but it actually means more people are going to die on a daily basis. um, there was the news about the cost to intelligence sharing. this isn't also a very, it also has an impact on, on ukrainian air defense and the, and the protection of the civilian population and protection of civilian infrastructure. the, the winter went better than expected in terms of the electricity situation. but we, i think, i should all remember what happens in spring of last year, when uh, when congress was holding up a u. s. military support. and it was not a sufficient defense themselves. the russians basically, the bombs ukraine's energy infrastructure to bits within a couple of weeks, which created a terrible situation for the civilian population, but also for the ukrainian economy at over the summer and into the fall. and it's gone a little better than expected right now. but that doesn't mean that this needs to

stay that way. i also wanted to say the point that was made about other countries. i'm not being able to do what germany is currently doing is a very valid one. um i think if you look at so markets assess of the, the east countries a solvency and it's, it's quite um, it's a quite tends to trace we, um, you know, that was with what happened with u. k. government on deals with when these trust me used for miss many, but there are friends born deals that are at times higher than re ones depending on the situation in the national assembly in which government is being brought down this week. and it will be significantly harder for these countries to, to borrow this much money and spend more. i want to throw in a little bit of a wild card here because there is around $340000000000.00 in russian solver and

assets lying around, including $200000000000.00 me in the european union. i heard and should be used to pays for ukraine's defends against russian aggression and ultimately for your printing economic risk reconstruction. then hogan stock and ruff bowman. thank you very much and i think plenty more to talk about but for now, for today. so this episode of selim briefing, we've covered a lot of ground. if you've got questions, do send those to your comments. you can do that on all major podcast platforms, specify upload cetera, but you can also watch shows on youtube dw news. and i say thank you very much for your interest. do subscribe until next time. the people with van lines to make this documentary and smuggle the footage out of the country.

a ron inside the protest movement. to all the people sizing the raisins, despotism faces of anger starts march 19th on t w. this is the, the new was coming to live from berlin your opinion confronts what he calls a clear and present danger. that's how the european commission president describes the us shift towards russia, where it's pain, premium, billions of bureaus to rearm and consummate that made no longer be able to rely on protection from washington. a new survey shows the germans mostly favor the defense spending hike, but for how long and with which partners what's coming up? what started as a successful launch turned into another setback for you on most space. x says it's starship rocket explode.