right, and why are they willing to risk everything? avon faces of anger. march 19th on d, w. the day you've probably seen those clips of ukrainian president followed him here. zalinski is trip to the oval office. it ended in disaster and the fallout came quickly. but the trump administration's decision to suspend all military a true meaning of the white house definitely going to be in history books as the moments of monumental change in the united states wrote on the world stage without the americans. how bad do things now looking for you crate the europeans step in to make up for the last support this week on to the point where i'm looking at the consequences of donald trump putting u. s. military a to ukraine on hold. how could europe help fills the gap,

the hello and welcome. i'm quite richardson in berlin, and i'm so delighted to welcome our panel with a military and political expertise to discuss this topic. we have sarah program director of the international politics program at the corporate foundation. carlo mazda a lot, a military expert and professor for international politics at the buddhist. very university munich. and joining us today from new york, retire lieutenant general, ben hodges, a former commander of the us army in europe. so carla, let's start with the immediate fallout from of that trump zalinski meeting. how quickly might we see changes on the battlefields in ukraine following the

suspension of u. s. military 8 or? well, i think you have to distinguish between potential changes. we might see on the front line and i think this will take time. i mean, the ukraine so far are still well equipped with immunization and soul, but within 2 or 3 months of the you opinions on all able to step in, we will see some changes probably at the front line. the more dramatic saying is, according to me, is the lack of defense. if the us stops and delivering a patriot missiles for the pate of batteries, we might see more success and ballistic missile strikes by the russians. and the readings were medic, thing for both is the the like all of the reconnaissance and surveillance data so which to which ukrainians need 1st of all, to hate very precisely, russian positions. second, the also to have an early warning system when ballistic missiles are coming in, when fido jets are getting up and russia. this might turn into a pretty dramatic,

this also in, in the following weeks. as i mean the depending on how long this stuff will last. so how to make challenges there. then when you, when you hear what carlin has said there, do you think that futon is sitting in moscow hearing this on? i will, i have to say 1st that what happened friday in the oval office was probably the worst day of my life, a piece, and the last 10 years, professionally, i, it was embarrassing. i felt terrible for prisoners, you lensky. and then as i look at this is a gigantic strategic mistake for the united states because of the situation on the battlefield is not as bad as is generally described in the lot of different media sources. and europe is clearly waking up, and i think we're going to see europeans working together with ukraine just to not only stop or usher, but actually to get to a much better situation. and they're going to do that without the us. and despite

the u. s. and that's going to mean last influence and a lost credibility for my country. so i thought friday was a terrible strategic mistake for the united states. yeah, i do agree of course with the color that the, the thing i worry most about is a little the shutting off of intelligence for ukraine by the united states. so this, this is a, makes it much more difficult for them to be able to counter russian missile strikes . then could be europeans step in to bridge some of the divide there. we've heard today, france offering to share it's intelligence with ukraine. i think that they can do an awful lot, and i mean the united states is not the only country that has a certain kind of assets. and frankly, most intelligence professionals don't advertise what they are able to do. so i, i suspect allies are going to do a lot of things that will not be talked about. should we talked about. there is,

are, in fact a lot more capability out there. yeah, no, sir. there is also the question over all of this, after this lensky trump meeting of whether this is a permanent shift in u. s. foreign policy, or whether it's some suspect. this is a bargaining tactic from, from trying to bring the lensky to the table to sign this minerals deal on terms that trump ones do you see it as a more permanent shift? i see it as a more a permanent shift because what we see now is about moscow as well as washington pursue a strategy of normalization of their relationship. and that's, i think, the fundamental change of the last strategy having that side of course. um, what we see between trumping baranski in the recent weeks is the strategy of re court nursing and forcing. so let's get to the table station table because if drums once his deal was put in and he already announced 18 and he needs one new ones, one, he needs the landscape to bow down and i think the pressure we have seen and rhetorically, in the last weeks and now also in practice with pausing. military supply also was

pausing. sharing of intelligence is exactly this, trying to get sometimes get to in a position table. so regardless of the motivations after that meeting, the trump administration did move very quickly to suspend all military aid to ukraine. and it's a move that many us allies, andrew craniums see as blackmail, or along the front line. the fighting continues. but your tree and soldiers know their situation is only go to get worse without us military aid to them. but one thing i know for sure is that without support, it will be hard. not just hard, if it's very hard to see much. meanwhile, at the white house, us president, trump has put your training and president savanski under immense pressure to strike a deal. if somebody doesn't want to make it to you, i think that person won't be around very long. that person will not be listen to very long because i believe that russia wants to make

a deal. i believe certainly the people, if you train want to make funneling rushes full scale invasion of you train 3 years ago. the us government 100 joe biden supported ukraine with military and financial aid, an estimated $120000000000.00. it's unlikely that western countries will be able to much that us military aid seems irreplaceable. especially when it comes to the us patriot air defense system is ukraine fighting a losing battle without us support will pass that question right on to sarah. can you put into perspective for us, how important to us military support has been for ukraine? that has been tremendously important, especially as are you asking supply and capabilities. that's your pins cotton. however, if you take a look at the bigger picture, and i think europe should set up and i think you're europe will be able to step up

and the to supply the. i think the best strategy for now would be to talk to the americans. and that's what the, especially my call and stomach are doing to achieve that too, as at least for some time comes back because i think it's illusion all to um, to believes that the guys will come back as we have seen for the last 102030 years forever, but to really, you know, like get a transition phase and 5 out to buy time for the europeans to step up their military game. but we also have to acknowledge that there will be a gap in defense capabilities for ukraine and security for europe about how big this gap will be really depends on what the european. so going to do. now, let's talk about that in more detail. carlo, can you tell me about the patriot systems in greater detail? is there a comparable replacement that the europeans could offer? well yeah, there is. i mean there is iris t for example. and if you remember that style maki sama basically promise 2500000000 euros. something like that. for ukraine,

when most of the money will be spent on the to set this for me, sold it for, for a defense. so there is an alternative, the point is we need to be very quick and we need to step up the game very rapidly because otherwise the risk this gap on the ground, which works in northern fable if ukraine. so it's, it's a question of the time now of time and action we take as europeans. and then we are able not fully to, to, to be able to replace the us as a provider of, of material. but to us, to a great extent, to basically help ukraine just was european munition, you loop in intercept us and so on and so forth. so there is a possibility, but it's a, it's a question on the time that been can you pick up on what carlos been saying? what else has the us providing the ukrainians that could be difficult for the europeans to replace quickly as well. i think it is worth noting that europe actually provides more than the united states does in terms of overall age and

equipment. so it's not like we're starting from 0. i have been impressed with the rapidity with which the german boomers toggling the incoming government. the once it's formed to change the law to allow increase spending in the emphasis coming from here merits. so i think this is, this is a kind of energy that political leaders have to show that can have this. the timing that carla was, is talking about. but also think i don't, we should not think of terms of replacing platform for platform with the u. s. provides this thing then somebody else has to come up with a different thing to replace it. it's more about capability and given the ukrainians, the ability to defend themselves from air and missile attacks, whatever the systems are. i would also say, you know, about fits. i learned this from the you about 50 percent of the ammunition that is already produced in europe. actually goes to customers in africa in the middle east . and so i think this was a place where governments could demonstrate will by redirecting priorities,

figuring out how to change the destination of this a huge amount of ammunition instead of it going to, you've gone to, or you a put them to the back of the line and diverted to ukraine, and i think this is where governments can protect the liability of companies in euro. that's a really interesting argument. carlo, have you heard this before? what you make of redirecting and munition from this is like what i was always in favor of prioritizing the old national forces and ukraine in whatever you produce. unfortunately, we have free market economies or companies do work differently. but i, i fully agree with, with what ben said, i mean, now it's time to give political orders basically to the market that there are 2 priorities which are, you were all non forces or you repeat armed forces to put it that way to. and then ukraine and everything else is best secondary as a market. so speaking of a private providers, let's talk about star link you on mosques,

internet services. sarah, what would happen if the us were to cut ukraine's access to star link as the americans have apparently threatened to do that would be something that would have immediate effect on the battlefield. unlike, for example, if use the military supply, which only unfolds impacts maybe in 2 to 3 months or a bit early a bit later, depending on the, on the concrete military capability of that would something that will be something where you would, you know, feel it basically the same day on the battlefield when it comes to when it comes to directing scanning, for example, for it for drones, for finding russian targets also for protecting ukrainian possible targets. i'm not think that also is something that will be really hard for europeans to, to come inside for because you wouldn't not only need a lot more satellites up in space. you would own also need the couple abilities to

put the satellite up and up in space and that's something that europe is lacking at the moment. so that will be some examples. we can really see, you know, how long the cycles for arming and for building up defense capital. these are because you would need to build up these space cup a couple of days and then put satellites in space and then you know, put ukrainians or it helps ukrainians compensate for the loss of salt lake. so let's pick up on those european efforts to find unity on this issue. we've had a european leaders meeting in london and paris and they have been clear that they will need to boost their own defense and speak with one voice, but a lingering question remains. how to pay for it as we stand with ukraine. europe is united. these in other words, of assurance could be heard in london, but the fox on the ground to make it hard to remain optimistic. at present europe is hardly in the position to defend itself. experts say the president of the european commission had an urgent appeal on tuesday. the real question in front of

us is whether europe is prepared to act as decisively as the situation the dictates without us supports. europe will need another 300000 soldiers on $250000000000.00 euros per year. another problem is that various weapons systems across the country are incompatible. shut the u. s. military withdraw. europe would also lose important capabilities like come on chains for large military units. they also have to do without large transport aircraft space, satellites, for intelligence purposes, precision weapons, nuclear deterrence is another gaping hole is europe even ready for this sized infection? so turning our focus to the future of european security. been, 1st of all,

i'd like to just put into perspective how bad the current situation is. for example, if you were to look at a, a worst case scenario, perhaps russia deciding next week to roll into the $11.00 of the baltic states to go into miscellaneous, would be us defend it. as per it's data obligations, as well. certainly, i'm 66 years old. i've never in my life. did i ever imagine that there would be a question that the united states would not live up to. it's um, article 5 obligations as a member of nato. the last week when permits are storm or was in the oval office and the president was asked, do you still believe an article or the 5 and um in the present hesitated for a 2nd then it kind of walk old. i mean, this is the easy. yes. yes, answer any president could ever give. so when he hesitated and started and the cab got a little bit, you know, best that only that also creates doubt in worry in the minds were allies, but also

a signals to the russian. so there is, i mean, it kind of be roads that the chart effect. having said that, i think we should keep in mind that russia is not about to roll into a baltic country. they, they cannot knock out and ukraine. i mean, ukraine has stopped russia. this is not the grandfather of the grandfathers of these ukraine. russian soldiers today, you know, would have broken through, would have over run defenders would have moved all the way to the new pro as your russian army today does not have that capability. they don't have the logistics, they don't have the mobile forces. they don't have the trained formations, they can actually do that. so, the most important thing to help protect your right now is to help you crane to feet russia. so be pushing capability. be pushing things to them while simultaneously doing exactly what we're seeing for most european armies is to improve capability. you're depressing little video, clipping there was accurate that set of co. busy us,

europe is not have the nuclear deterrent that the united states provides. although i think the french and the british are prepared to do things to extend that more. and then the, the transport that this has long been a, a vulnerability for europe is a building move not just with big aircraft, but to move rapidly by rail. this is something that needs more than talk me. it does seem like there's a lot of can trump meeting has been a real wake up call. another wake up call for europe this time we should say. and we've seen leaders now discussing huge sums of money, which not that long ago would have been really, um, thinkable. we've a new commission president or so the funder line saying, europe's ready to massively boost defense spending. and she's come up with a plan called re arm. you're proposing mobilizing close to 800000000000 euros. carlo is that, is that enough to do what they want? well, it depends what you want to purchase for, for this item. a 1000000000,

if you, if you want to buy the right things, if you want to produce the right things that's enough. and if you handle it badly in a u. p wave, that means at the end of the day, we still have, you know, to give money to 1510 companies to buy at, built in new tags. and then it won't be enough and it won't be effective or the spend. so it, it, it's not the question of money it's, it's a question on political whether it's a question of money, but it's a question dental strategy. how do you want to spend the money or, and we need to bridge. i mean, you know, we need to, to, to take this next step to, to break it down into concrete actions, which also means consolidating the repeating defense industry, which is in pods completely scattered and, and therefore ineffective. that's a, another major issue, right? the fragmentation of different countries, european defense, how challenging will it be to try and find united defense systems for europe? i think it's a political question whether you want to 3 defense in the 3 as

a national investment policy, where you, where you want to keep jobs in, in, in your specific country. or you realize that it's about a u. p. defense industry. and then certain things possible, i mean, they could say go, we basically created a german french, a company which is a ebay nowadays. so this is probably not the best example how you should do it. but at least it's an example of it. you can, you obtain lies within a much better way, then it's currently being hand. yeah. so you work in success story. sarah, how do you see this is europe finally finding the political will power to unify on defense? i mean, diamonds are created, i'm the humans pressure. so maybe this time pressure is high enough to finally form a european defense diamond will say, but i, i share uh, i shared to the point of color because i think when the one site we have the challenge to create a european defense system. different couple of days,

but on the other hand, we also face on the german, on the national level of defense industry and a decent bureaucracy that is way too big way too complicated at a way to inefficient. and i think that will be like a really huge sell in for the upcoming defense minister. whoever is going to be to not only you know like take the money and purchase something, but also take the money and do it in an efficient way. and to reform the iraq, per se, in the, in the defense system in germany. yeah. perhaps you could just tell a bit more about the germans efforts here. yeah. what we don't know about the drums for them. i mean, at least what we've got to yesterday is that basically what i mean we, we will use the best one call to make our armed forces better equipped. but if we say what sarah said, if i were in minutes of defense for this money, i will put up a separate structure. because if you put, i mean regardless how many 1000000000 hundreds of billions of euros on a poppy dysfunctional system, this won't make the system better. and it will overburden the system too. so i

would create an own separate li, not small procurement, structural design to spend this additional money which will come in within uh, within you of them. and then if you were a defense minister, what would be on your list and what would be your priorities for what needs to get done 1st as well. the 1st thing i would do is hire sorrow and carlo to be mad assistance. is that your 2nd to move in? the priority for any defense minister has got to be reading. this is that's where i adjust that to your armed forces that you have have got to be ready to do their job . this to me is even more important than purchasing new equipment. but making sure that what you have is functional that you did all of your units are filled with soldiers. that they are training that they have adequate fuel and ammunition and maintenance and repair parts. and that you, you exercise this is,

this is very expensive. um, so it's not just about buying new equipment, but it's about making sure that the german or all of our army, navy, and air forces are capable to do what they have to do. that's the immediate priority and it should be the priority for every defense minister in carla. what we do our recommendation day? well, i mean, i would hire ben as an, as an assistant and special advisor. um, in addition to what he said, i think one of the things we need to talk about in germany is personnel. mm hm. yeah, i mean, we have a gap right now about 25000 soul just lacking this gap will increase by june when nato's capability requirements are going to be approved up to i think 240000 men and women. so we still have around $180000.00. we need to get back to him into a new form of conscription system like the suites do have because otherwise this

shows, i mean this shows the last decade we are not able to fill the, the, the number of people to get the number of people we need and the durham non full so so this needs to be a priority because of the end of the day, you might have the best equipped german bonus that ever in its history. was all people being able to fly to planes and to drive to think of, is there a how, how politically realistic would that be in a place like in germany? would something like conscription be possible? is there the, the, the public sentiment behind it? and we're having basically been paid since we abandon conscription. we're them to it in years ago. and i think that will be a moment in time with those events, pressure from the geo political situation, and from, from what rush or how it will russia threatens here. and i think that that would be possible. but i think that brings me to something that, you know, a possible defense minister should also do because of course, he or she probably he will have to implement policy decisions. but he will

also be, you will also be, you know, responsible for communicating back to the german public that has been will look tend to accept military and security realities for the past to that case. and i think that will, you know, that will be a delicate balancing act to communicate that wisely and to really implement a policy decisions rapidly. and ben, who do you see it taking the lead in your up here as in germany, the okay, france, poland. all of them together as well. if i made for something this are just, are the exactly right, that our leaders have to speak to the population is if they are adults, explain what is at stake. why this matters and my, my experience. so i live in frankfort, my experience. so last many years has been the most germans. so what if they believe they're being told the truth and spoken to as adults that people accept

responsibility that they have to do something? i think that's true. and most of our countries, if the leader says yes, it will be expensive. yes, you may have to reduce the amount of time you spend down and kissed mueller rang and, and so, but this is about our security and our future. so i think people will like, will be willing to accept that. clearly germany has to be the leader. that doesn't mean that you have to be out there waving a flag saying where the leader follow was less. but lead by example. and i think germany can do that well. well, have that be the final word. thank you so much to our fantastic panel for the insights. today we've been speaking with the carlo mazda lot, sarah. how going and then hodges, if you are watching on youtube, leave with a comment. let us know what your thoughts and hope to see you next time. the,

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from board. the estate of the news by from by that and 5 of classes reported between the syrian government troops and supports of the ousted form of presidents. the ports of i'm bushes and executions emerge, and one of the biggest challenges to the new government is the phone of the shaw alice task. also on the program. russia launch is more rocky and drone strikes across the ukraine. peeve described as a massive attack targets in critical energy and gas infrastructure. the .