the story explains quick and easy, short and sweet. find us on t w dot com, click apply, and social media. video news for learning german quotes from sliced the . the times they are a changing the us these days sometimes looks like an opponent of countries that tried to defend that freedom and germany no longer seems to care about that. welcome to this new reality to, to see a dorothy. so i want to say this very clearly is in view of the threat swell freedom and peace on our confidence that the same us know apply to our defense. whatever it takes about it takes whatever it takes big, what's next week from germany's likely next, john. so let's go to this met from the conservatives. it's a massive plan. germany wants to re invest massively and then press start to take up huge amounts of debt and do away with the buy. now infamous debt break. so just

a quick remind them as is currently trying to form a coalition government with a social democrats. and so they announced this plan together, but the juicy bit for those mats had ruled a lot of thought out during the election campaign period. and there are hurdles before this defense and infrastructure bazooka come to come reality. plus, even if it does get approval, empowerment, what would you have any, have to spend as money on? we will give you a full balance briefing on all of this. and this episode, and to break it all down, i have my colleague hi fun here from f opposite sunday newspapers. thank you very much for coming to us 200. thank you for the invitation. and we're also joined by benyamin, who can stop from political think times tga p. he's on the line from key view crane . so let's start with you ben. how did that announcement from bell and go down and keep where you are right now as well. so be fair, there is a lot of news right now which, which can be quite overwhelming. i think it's seen as an encouraging sign in

particular, following the entire nightmare that transpired with president savanski is the oval office meeting and everything that has happened since then on all the signals that have been sent by the us. so having this commitment from germany, it won us ukraine's most important allies in europe and, and also signaling this understanding that we are living in a new reality, i think is uh, receive a positive way here. but again, the newest can be overwhelming and hard to digest. yeah. is happening at lightning speed. all of those roles. what was your initial reaction when you had that? and i'm sure maybe that's a good place for me as other services. while it's really a so called sites and then the, the sending the transfer, the turning point is it's on the side said it's a 3 years ago. but to 3 years ago it was all in little and,

and changing time. and now it's really from, especially for jam and uh, politics oriented towards stability and dep, brake info. so on it's really a turning point of gentleman politics. so before we do the analysis, can you break it down for us? what was in that plan that they announced? yeah. first of all, uh, the dep rake is killed for all the military expenses. only one percent of the iep is the normal budget and the rest is limited and the trust that i had discussed if it's would be $400.00 or $500.00 billions of euros at. but i think the idea of was, if a, regarding, the, a putting knows that gemini is able to buy 2000 tags. he though built

3000 and so he can calculate what we can afford or not to afford. so it was the decision tool to make no limits for that. and on the other hand, it to balance this for domestic politics and for the social democrats and also for the population. who could ask? well, re, uh, the kind of thoughts, uh, the tags and app plans for the military and so on. and a bunch of you have a right away if it's doesn't work and so on. we have another 500000000000 euros for infrastructure. and that's uh the, the other parts of the game. and so it's, um, and of course it's an opportunity for the drum and to spend money for other things because now infrastructure and mandatory doesn't count any

more for the debt break. so there's more money for penzance and all other things that the government would like to do for lower texas, for example, which was also a thing in the election campaign, a central point of view of the city, the conservative party. yeah, and of course this is a massive policy you 10, don't get into that a bit later, but i want to get the reaction from keith again. so been, if you could give us an idea, is that going to be the thing that is needed as a message from germany to tell russia, hey, there's just no point in trying to build a bureau, me in a way that you, that you're thinking about potentially attacking a baltic countries say, or test nato 5 to call on and, you know, common defense is that one of these signs that are needed. now, how would you assess us? it is, i think it's definitely one of the assignments that are needed. i don't think that

by itself will be sufficient. so 1st of all, we have to figure out how to turn the snow unlimited funding for the military into or into actual action on the ground that stops russia from even thinking about certainly further aggression against nato members. you members, for instance, as you mentioned in the policy, and as we know from the original $100000000000.00, a special funding for, for the military that the traffic lights at call issue implemented together with other parties in 2022 after the team, especially in thomas pipe, so the government right now. yeah, yeah. that is not without. it's showing this, right. so you have to spend this money, you have to spend it on things that actually have an impact on right now. and. and beyond that, i think the german military spending of that magnitude is

a welcome development. but again, it's not going to be bias self sufficient, other countries in europe. we'll do, we'll have to do similar things. we also have to think about other components of our approach towards a, towards ukraine and at what we do to enable ukraine to withstand russian regression . so this is about the sanctions regime. this is about a financial support to ukraine. this is about enabling a ukraine to get access to certain weapons that we may actually not be producing in europe. so it's a welcome. it's a welcome step and it's a massive turnaround, as you, as you outline um, but i think we will have to continue to do this and the more for the foreseeable future because we live in a very different. yeah. now. so that's all true and as see one more risk. now, as the military funding in germany is limited, because of that, it sounds funny,

but it could reduce the political pressure for buying military equipment. if they would have said it'd be, spend 500 billions followed the military, that would, has been political pressure to spend that money because best bet number. but now there's no number. and i see the risk if there should be a ceasefire in ukraine. the public opinion, at least in western europe, could change again and say, wow, that's all not so risky. and we don't know if 14 verbally attack the baltic states or whatever. and so it's not so important anymore to, to invest too much money if uh for the army. okay, so let's talk about those handles in detail because there are lots of pads of cost . yeah. okay. and i've, there's a constitutional rule. let's talk about the debt break fast. right? because you wouldn't need to change the debt break in order to exempt defend

spending. yeah. from it. yeah. this is something with any government needs to set majority in parliament. and the plan by the social democrats, of the conservatives, is now to use the current, so i'm going to call them and instead of the new parliament. so can you describe, why would they do that? why would they try and rush this decision? yeah, yeah, the problem is that's the new problem and outgoing from the election. so we had a 2 weeks ago, they have a b, no to suck majority for the parties of the political center. they would have to use a ride to being extreme. roger in part of the if the all the less thing potty de luca to build a tooth, the majority. and that will be very difficult perhaps with the linkage with the possible to make exceptions from the dep bank but not for the military because it's

of why the pessimistic poverty. and so i is the, a of the, against the, the, if the is very much pro russian, the pro russian and poor trump. and they will never agreed to uh, to, to him, i mean spending, which is against russia and against the populist and totalitarian waves. because they part of it, they are part of this trump and pushing game. they are going to have a lot more members sitting in the next one. this tax. yeah, that's got so. so in the next business card, it would not be possible to make any changes from the debt break, at least not for the military. and so for this maps and to it's preferable, social democratic coalition partner decided to make this attempt to do it with the o. it's paula method. so as of course, from the, from the point of view of the constitution, it's correct. but from

a 4 digit code view, it's a little bit strange to do it after the election because the conservative party and sort of maps. and the election campaign already said no, we don't want to change that. but again, so and that's a problem is now of course there's a need the green potty, but i think the green party at the end will agree that all they are in support. they are and so on. and they are, it is also important to explain of course, to the audience, because it's not self evident that the green party is the strongest political party and just supporting the ukraine. very much involved in the social democrats, for example. so they agree with that, but i think they will, but they want to show of costs that they make for excellence. and in this infrastructure package, and they want to have more climate action. but i think at the end that will be not

an obstacle which is uh, uh, yeah, no tweet an obstacle. yeah. and some people are saying now essentially what match is suggesting is something that he rolled out during the election campaign, but he's now translating essentially the greens it likes and manifesto. yeah. real time politics is yes, the approximate a and to and much more. because then the greens talked about modifying the dep break, they didn't speak about 500000000000. so something like that took some of the the, the idea of was very smooth, much smaller balance. but i think that this one sign of the tradition of the german conservatives of christian democrats, that they were always very pragmatic and very open to, to change this one to change the policies. even the great chancellor, such as a coordinate on our him, would court all, i'm going to america this. i personally,

i didn't think that uh for his mouth is such a pragmatic test. and so here's the 3 bits surprise by the ballast. be the chancellor who doesn't make any con premiere. yeah, exactly. exactly. exactly as a biographer off on the mac, the i r as was a little bit skeptical about him. and we of course we, we can talk afterwards about the problems of his package, but that he, i think it is positive. but he showed this sense of pragmatism at the beginning of a, a quoting about the test as was it. yeah. did you see the film, the ad? as in that song that he says when the water is going up, you'll have to swim. not just enough to sink like a like a stone that it has to be read 1st. now the, the argument ends with justification to say, well,

with the scene and the white house last friday of trump and savanski a time, this is times have changed. and so we have to swim. that's more of the why, but i think of cause illiterate, but it's also that they pretend as well or they use mats and the social democrats. they use these changing times for the purposes for, for using the fisco pressure on the new government. yeah, i mean is it just to come back to bob dylan for just the everybody i think has to watch this film. yeah. and because it's just a fantastic book trial. yeah. yeah. yeah. i know, i know the only off off that periods on the area and i just thought, wow, it is so high you topical again in the cuban missile crisis. the, all these threats that, and for a long time just seemed to be able to contain, you know, the threats of nuclear. yeah, but, but i think it's, it's this,

the 2nd sense that it's very much difficult because at least off the cuban crisis at people the thought that times are changing, but they are changing to the better. now we all have been present that times we're changing to the us. yeah. lots of people backpedaling can. okay. one last had well before we go back to ben and keith and is of course the people in frederick matches and policy. there are lots of people who are skeptical, they come pained on that tunes as we stand. so we want to keep the debt break in place. we need fiscal stability, and this is also how they manage to keep the pro business, the liberal f t p potty small. they took away and made okay. that's they say no, no, no. if you have a wonderful day, right, you can to keep to stay in the boat for all. yeah. not for that. yeah. with a result that the government coalition partners now out has been to new york then

not going to come in again. and so of course, there are lots of people within the conservatives who are escape. yeah. but yeah, going to be able to convince them. do you think, you know, things like that. so, as i already mentioned, the christian democrats, i really pragmatic property that at the end, i don't think that they have the tons now after only 3 years of a position that one of them becomes transfer again. and at the end, i don't think that they would risk the power at the office of the child. and for the, for the criticism to that. i think the point now is today and tomorrow they are talking with the social democrats about all the other. so we help as techs and so on, we have to adopt that we're recording on says day and the 6th of months in the morning. so we can cover anything that's happening in brussels on assess the

afternoon because of course, decisions. yeah. also have an impact on of what's happening in member states and, but this is something we're going to be focusing on the discussion here in berlin. as ralph was saying, there is going to be a special session in buttons talk next week. and of course college negotiations, all the prep for the talks, they are under way and that that and then go yeah, yeah, thank you for the explanation. i think it's important, but yeah, if you want to youtube and then just say what are they talking? but i made the decision in the not covering that. yeah, yeah, that's true. yeah. and uh, but i think the point is that as a southern impression preferred as mounts to obtain a successes in the collision talks about about topics such as lower texas migration. and so on the source of its pencils. and i think migration could be difficult as well with the social democrats and on the repeating level. but i think

at the end that will be low of texas. but because that's an very important point for, for the course of democrats where are critical inputs. but at the end that leads to even higher expands of costs and even high heads have it's cool if you rise the expenses of the state. and if you low of the income of the state of costs and then it'd be even bigger uh deficit that does, that's uh, the average of the story. yeah. let's see where they've been and keith agrees been, you're a financial expert and you've also in the past for example, i helped prepare the world economic outlook. so does those plan make sense? it does but or i guess it as i want it to make 2 additional points. one is on, on this a idea that the incoming government is also using this crisis situation

to basically generate enough funds for uh for the work that their coalition wants to do. i mean, if we look back to the outgoing government, the fundamentals thing, but ultimately brots down this coalition is that there was not enough money to paper over any conflict between the parties, at least because juvenile court's ruling on the, on the special funds. right. so, and any new government would have eventually faced this problem, but there is simply not enough money to deal with the investment backlog that we accumulated for. i don't know how many decades were the additional merits military spending that is needed. and that was going to be needed without the oval office, a disaster and, and other measures that are needed to get determined economy back on. so i think,

yes, they're using this as a bit of a, as an excuse as well. but this was always going to happen now. um, i think what is happening and brilean right now. it shows how much the ground has actually shifted in a very short period of time. and this is not just about a french merits. uh, changing his mind about these things. um, but you know what we've seen in just about a week since, since the oval office seen is that clearly not only this, the united states willing or the trump administration rather to throw ukraine under the bus in a morally bankrupt fashion. that is hard to describe, but i think the realization in europe is that the trumpet administration is happy to do this as well with any other uh, uh, the u. s. is allies in europe and a we shouldn't forget that at the same time that that, that this is being communicated and that's 80 vans came to the munich security

conference and how the, you know, quite the portable speeds. um, the us is also engaged in a trade board with its to biggest trading partners on the north american continent . so they know this all that's kind of been to the bigger picture. and i think what will happen, what is happening in berlin right now. and the case at which it is happening illustrates that, that the tech tonic shift is really remarkable, and that your leaders, fortunately appear to understand that they are basically on their own. and that they have to figure out the rad, that is coming from russia by themselves. and it's not no longer a theoretical argument that is ukraine uses this world, and russia will come after us. we just don't know anymore if the united states would stand up for any of its allies in europe. should there be any kind of russian aggression to was the politics states or whatever kind of hybrid, a step of hybrid warfare. and it doesn't mean a trump needs to officially withdraw from nato. he just has to communicate that

he's not going to lift a finger and, and i think that realization has set it up. now i thought your question on or the merits of this plan. i think this spending is simply needed. um and, and you know, i said not only is this about frontier, smith's changing his mind about that, but it's also about the procedure of using the friend bonus talk to cost these constitutional changes. i think we're just beyond these kind of considerations. and this is a message that has been well understood in here for obvious reasons for, for about 3 years or more. it has been understood in poland and in the politics and other uh, other eastern european, uh un nato members. and we were a little bit late to the party, but i think the message received now on the uh, on the merits. um, i think it is a sensible approach. and i also think it's,

it's possible for jeremy to do that for several reasons. first of all, um, because of the debt break, we kind of have reduced our debt to g d p ratio a quite considerably since say, you know, 2010 or they are both. despite the additional money that was needed for the year in that price is despite the additional money that was needed for public release. so germany isn't quite a good fiscal position. yeah, i'm like from so it's only right when you look at the defense, for example. and yes, then you look at the bond market and use for german government bonds. went up by like 30 basis points in one day. but, you know, considering that we're planning 240800 1000000000 euros or it's really in euro steps. that's not so much and investors. i'm also considering what's happening with the fiscal policy in the us. c, german funds. so as a very safe haven, and i don't think there's going to be any problem to actually borrow this money on

the market. um, if it generates, which it likely will uh, additional economic growth or economic growth at all, considering the current situation that we're in. and then i think is manageable over the foreseeable future in terms of the kind of desperate and that the german government is. he's going to ask me, well, but i think of course, that's true for germany, but you have to have a look here to the other european countries because the drum you appear in defense is not only a topic of germany alone. and i'm not sure if it's on the front, you can uh, able to spend so much more money for defense because they already have that high adapt a rates on that cdp ratio. and so it could be quite difficult is as on the okay, as in deep 1st cook problems, we don't have so much. i'll look to that from the continental european prospectus

because they are not a member of the us own. but you can stop me. i was traveling with the death crisis of this country already be full. and then you turn off and on. so of course you perception is the threat is tangible, right? it is literally tons of all for you every day. the further away you all from nato's eastern fine, uh the truth, i just wanted to, to as high as the less be let the, the only country if it's a little bit better off economic coming at the moment of spain. but spend just so much so far away. i'm not sure if a span feel so much threatened by russia as rowdy nipple too. yeah. well, you know, i mean, the good. sorry. yeah. you were going to say something been on, on the key if prospective of, of course of this, it hits home almost literally that error. there is an error. it's basically every

night or several times. and then it depends a little bit of what kind of error load it is. is it, there's a head thrown, okay, that is fine. you go back to sleep, is it the ballistic missile? then you probably should not go back to sleep. and the trump administration is currently doing things that will be somewhat difficult for europe to offset. so the, the, the, the cost to military support includes goods that are, are difficult for us to replace, especially air defense systems. and that may inspire us policy so morally to pro deplorable, because this is not about allowing ukraine any counter offensive operations that may not want to see. while he negotiates with the student ends and landscape. but it actually means more people are going to die on a daily basis. um, there was the news about the cost to intelligence sharing. this isn't also a very, it also has an impact on, on ukrainian air defense and the,

and the protection of the civilian population and protection of civilian infrastructure. the, the winter went better than expected in terms of the electricity situation. but we, i think i should all remember what happened in spring of last year, when uh, when congress was holding up a u. s. military support. and it was not a sufficient defense themselves. the russians basically bombed ukraine's energy infrastructure to bits within a couple of weeks, which created a terrible situation for the civilian population, but also for the ukrainian economy at over the summer and into the fall. and it's gone a little better than expected right now. um, but that doesn't mean that this needs to stay that way. i also wanted to say the point that was made about other countries. i'm not being able to do what germany is currently doing is a very valid one. um, i think if you look at so markets assess the the, the east countries solvency it's, it's quite um,

it's a quite tends to trace we, um, you know, that was what's, what's happened with u. k. government on hills with when these trust me used her, but miss minnie, but um there are friends ponds use that or its fine is higher than re ones depending on the situation in the national assembly in which government is being brought down this week. and it will be significantly harder for these countries to, to borrow this much money and spend books. i want to throw in a little bit of a wild card here because there is around $340000000000.00 in russian solver and assets lying around, including $200000000000.00 e um, in the european union. um, it could and should be used to pays for ukraine's defense against russian depression and ultimately for your opinion, economic reasons for reconstruction, then hogan stock, and rav bowman. thank you very much, and i think it's like

a more to talk about. but for now, for today, so this episode of felon proofing, we've covered a lot of ground. if you've got questions, do send those that you know, comment. and so you can do that on all major podcast platforms, specify apple, it cetera. but you can also watch shows on youtube dw news, and i say thank you very much for your interest. do subscribe until next time the, the untold story is going to be find it here. repos here. every weekend on dw,

the is this dw news, these are our top stories, a trip, some serious interim government of baffling forces loyal to ousted liter bashaw aside in coastal cities in the west of the country. according to the u. k. base syrian observatory for human rights, 147 people have been killed since fighting pro, counts on thursday because he's been imposed and the attack here region, a strong hold of assets. suppose this russia has kind of about another wave of aerial attacks across ukraine. he says dozens of russian miss styles in nearly 2.