maybe putin will announce a mobilization, but for this we will have to declare a war in russia, it is possible that there will be some kind of hidden mobilization, nevertheless, how threatening is this human potential, well, russia, well, this is how it turned out historically. well, they have more people, the population says that 17 million can to mobilize the army, how much is this a threat to us? and i also read that russia and the tactics of waging war have actually changed. we beat and fly to us, then they release another batch of sick people. well, that is, how cannon fodder is used in the military, uh, 17 million with sticks this will change everything if in fact the mobilization is announced, and what is your

opinion in the end, what are the chances that it will happen on the ninth, well, first of all, i still adhere to the opinion that it is unlikely that a full mobilization will be announced, because the announcement of such a mobilization requires relevant resources and we are already we can see by the level of equipment of those units that are now suitable for new units. that the russians must have accumulated such resources that would allow them to openly announce full mobilization because it is necessary to understand how you say 17 million people to be separated from the usual life, take those hands out of the economy, let it be so. well, i even violate it. it is necessary to store those 17 million somewhere, which are not there, that is, it is about what needs to be found and the form needs to be found , suitable barracks need to be fed with something.

it must be understood that no matter how quickly putin wants to involve them in hostilities, let's just remember the number of tanks that we have already burned and if we even say that half of the crews of those tanks did not survive, then we are talking about 500 crews. and 500 crews is for a second e- e five e-e tank regiments a-a so that you understand that to prepare one crew or to restore the skills of one crew, it takes a month and a half to restore skills, to prepare the minimum preparation, to launch a stop tank, it takes three months, i am already silent about the need in pilots and you know, if during the second world war it was possible to consider the issue of unprepared resources being thrown into battle, then sorry, russia of the 21st century is by no means the soviet union , which was preparing for the second world war for at least 10 years, that is, there was no such preparation. therefore,

i have well purely from a mathematical point of view, and from the point of view of common sense, the question arises as to how they can announce that anything is possible, how they will carry out this general mobilization. therefore , it will most likely be about the same regime which we have already seen, namely, about hidden mobilization, about persuading conscripts to sign in six months a contract about deployments by military commissions regarding the involvement of certain categories of reservists in the army and how much money they will have, so much so that they will lure them into the army , because to announce mobilization it will be a disaster for russia e- as you already said, the very fact of the arrival of the russian chief of the general staff gerasimo obviously shows that they understand that the times are working precisely against them and based on how the situation will continue to develop after the ninth of may on the signs

of ... the enemy can pull this data, er, these dates , i'm sorry, we can't afford this, and it's simply about planned combat training and studying the equipment that is transferred to us saturated with that equipment of our units and according to our readiness we start the operation so that depending on the direction in which we act, that is, we understand that , for example, the number of troops concentrated on the izyum salient significantly exceeds, for example , the number of troops that are currently on the so -called southern flank or the northern taurian flank, respectively, if we perform different operations, the preparation for the destruction of, let's say, 20 battalion tactical groups

is different from the terms of preparation for assigning 30 or 40 battalion tactical groups therefore, due to the possibilities of the needs of the terrain, the number of ammunition, the number of weapons, the number of military equipment, air cover and the saturation of air defense means, our military leadership will already make a decision regarding the conduct of counter-offensive operations in the zone war to date , because it is very difficult to say where our guys will start and how it will end, but it must be understood that during the preparation for this counteroffensive operation, no one canceled the laws of operational art, that is, the law is the advantage of the attacking party, for example, the defending party, complete total control in the air , ensuring cover for our advance of our columns

from the air, and so on boys and teach them if they do, they know very well what to do. well, what do you think about this seemingly possibility that russia will attack moldova from transnistria or in some way today, you already know here eh always and this is a classic of danger assessment, it consists of three elements er and these three elements are the desire for the opportunity to carry out these actions and restraining factors, they would have such a desire, they have the er opportunity to carry out this attack, you know , even i communicated with my moldovan friends and they discovered a terrible military secret that we used to say that transnistria is located on a permanent basis with approximately 2.5 thousand russian troops, instead, the practice or the same restraining factors say a little about other things that 70% of those so-called russian

troops are actually local residents who received russian passports and truthfully say that many of them have never even set foot on the territory of their own russian federation, that is, according to this, it can be concluded that the level of training and motivation of these local residents, even with russian passports, is by no means low. moreover , we can pay attention to the following deterrent factor of the desire to fight in this territory, we see how the residents of the temporarily occupied moldovan territory voted by cars at the crossing points and you know, i would like to draw attention to one more such very interesting aspect, it is familiar to me simply from yugoslavia, in us there, uh, battles were fought all over the territory of kosovo, except for one such very strange district, which was called genilene, so in anger. this you know, there was such an enclave of crime. and if we remember that

today transnistria is actually a bank-claum of international crime and smuggling, then the last thing smugglers want is some kind of publicity and noise, and that's why they are also not very interested in the fact that some kind of noise disturbed their stable and majestic life, this is the second restraining factor. the third supporting factor is the territory and readiness of ukraine to fight . it is very difficult to do this in this narrow territory , and we have not seen the concentration of such powerful formations that have said that the enemy can do this. so , one more restraining factor. and how they will do it and who they will fight, we can assume that one or two or three planes can transfer a certain number of military personnel for this, we will be about a battalion of up to 400 men. sorry, 400

men cannot take over moldova. even if, uh, there will be no resistance there, and there will be resistance, that 's what we're talking about today yes, for today i would say that the rumors about a large-scale occupation of moldova are a bit of an exaggeration about mariupol, i wanted to record that the evacuation finally started today, about 100 civilians were able to evacuate from there tomorrow at 7:00 a.m. mine to continue evacuation became possible after the visit well, it seems that the un secretary general went to moscow and then to kyiv however, this is exactly what influenced putin in your opinion because it was not possible to evacuate at least someone from there for two months or why in the end putin i made these

small but ultimately concessions regarding mariupol itself. you know, it is difficult to assess what is on putin's mind, but i would say yes, including, and one must understand that a-a then maybe i was already convinced despite the sacredness of this place namely the city of mariupol for putin's war and in order to show how victorious they are, well, for internal consumption, there is an awareness that our guys have shown that they will not give up and they will continue the fight, that is, this blackmail of the civilian population did not succeed, and i understand that mr. gutievich brought certain messages to mr. putin, which can seriously complicate his life, and here, you know, the messages of mr. boutiera also coincided with our desire and with the forced desire of putin to release people because the reduction in the number of troops

of putin, which can be transferred to other directions, well, this is in principle his desire and his need, because we know that at least four battalions of the tactical group were withdrawn from the crimea in excuse me from mariupol and transferred to popasno, where they are now continuing combat operations, that is, yes well, let's just say that the stars have aligned that it all converges to each other and they are forced to act in this mode, well, having at the same time their own personal benefit, if you can say so, mr. last well, if the question is, if you allow and i am i understand, well, from those official, including reports, as well as talking to people who are now in advanced positions on the front line that the russian troops every day continue to suffer heavy heavy losses, in fact, both in equipment and in manpower, which are, well, not relatively large compared to our losses, and what is the point of their tactics? what

do they hope for, that is, if they do not understand that in the end, the same forces will die , in the end they themselves may find themselves surrounded. you know, you don't understand. you know, you don't understand. chornobayivka is proof of that, because uh, what is the difference between our tactics and our military art from the russian one? we uh, there is a greater role of uh, younger commanders, they show more initiative, and we have a more developed system of interaction and information exchange there is no such thing in the russian army, there is a rigid vertical and all decisions are made vertically and hindering this vertical is the actual lack of information exchange even with your neighbors for various reasons even well, you know as far as i remember my

service in the soviet army, even the frequencies of radio stations were not transmitted to neighbors, and there only a very limited circle of people knew how to go to the neighboring callsigns and organize communication, and most of them did not have this, that is, such a rigid vertical, it excludes the dissemination of information again - after all, it plays into the hands of the putin regime. and hence such high losses, which are absolutely traditional since the second world war, nothing has changed since then. well, what? so , yes, they will be for some time, and us, and us, and us. stand serhii grabsky joined us thank you very much for this conversation well, we will immediately introduce our next guest, this is anderson, a swedish-american economist and diplomat, a senior researcher at the atlantic chancellery, mr. aslound, good evening, ana, and for your sake, i would like to see you

, we will continue right away with such and such a military theme . if you are not against it, i would ask you just what are the prospects, for example, in russia, if putin is still, for example, the ninth of may, a good day for this, the jumpers are there. and in general, lenin or where you will also say that this is a holy war with the west on eh and it is necessary to announce all general mobilization if russia has the resources for this and how it can eh look in general well, i think that in general he himself promises eh mobilization, you know that it is average the class will be now, they are now sitting on the sidelines, they don’t like it, it’s terrible, they don’t like it, that then it will actually be on the other side, it’s politically

incomprehensible , we don’t tell you. lose well, well, then it was over that's how we see it today, it's obvious that we have very good and effective management of the armed forces of ukraine, and in many ways this is connected with the same valery zalognym, of course, with the commander . - the armed villages of ukraine, and we also see that the national bank of ukraine seems to be working quite effectively, at least we have a very small inflation, a sufficiently large-scale attack on ukraine and there remains trust in the institution and the hryvnia - this is very important, i think

yes, but there is some kind of feeling from the other side that, well, there is a lack of hard-working people in some spheres . let’s just say that there are not enough hard-working people, and even elena shulyak is the leader of the party of the ruling m- m said that now there is a huge shortage of qualified specialists and a very bad lack of effectiveness of institutions. well, this was not a big secret, actually. it seems to me that i didn't hear it i wouldn't have heard, for example, i don't hear that let's carry out an effective reform of the state to the pro -state administration or return at least the competitions a-a in order to make the administration more effective, that 's how it would be, well, there's

nothing to it. well, of course, so that in the fact that you need to do it, it can be really unpleasant , in fact, it is a problem, uh, i think that uh, after the war, for the day that it will be an escort , then you need to have three big projects, and that is already acceptable, this entry into the european union is sitting. the reconstruction of ukraine and this is er instructional reforms that were not considered it interferes with the bohemian eh in ukraine at the same time. how does it interfere with the entire russian army? it shows that

ukraine is limited to me, or russia that it is internal confidence . with corruption what is being done about corruption? well, of course, as you know, don’t judge those people. well, in the extreme world, they will lose their authority when there is still corruption, but necessarily after the war , very rough structural reforms are expected. then there will be uh- uh political pain - this will be done and i would like to hear about the information that just recently became known , the secretary of the security service of ukraine, aleksey danilov, said that putin allegedly forewarned hungary in advance that an attack was being prepared in hungary on february 20

pulled up its troops to the borders of ukraine and it seemed to be ready in the event that russia wants kiev well, a piece is enough for itself maybe they are a piece of transcarpathia well, in general, such plans in hungary seem to be uh эту информация orban is the prime minister in hungary and how, in principle, politics can change. we see that in the sanctification of war, the policy of scholz of the german chancellor has changed dramatically. the pro-russian politician is too pro-putin, of course, that's the only way they won the elections very strongly , the unscrupulousness of the russian politicians, well, i thought that the main pressure

on hungary would be the parties of the european er union because it has really moved away from all norms, corruption is one freedom of the media, it is er, the other is efficiency, the democratic system is er tracks that there are unregistered eyes , er recitation from elections ah, we now have some problems with fuel and gas stations stations and it is clear that there are many factors that influence this

. что это очень плохая идеа this is the state government regulation оцен even now in this military time if it speaks if we are talking about the market in the market eh for for for consumers consumers yes well this is definitely necessary there is no market where it is possible but this is sufficient say that during the normal period of the main regulation, what is surprising in ukraine now are all of us foreigners, how long has electricity been functioning there, telecommunications, internet, and that there are products, and that i had big problems with fuel, the date was pleasant service in

to this - this is ukraine now, wait for uh, we will improve that there are officials in russia and less in ukraine than the fact that uh, bmp you have about 35 percent there uh u we have published a plan for the economic revival of ukraine from the office of the president and the government. so far, there is little that is known about it. there are only general points. it seems that nine points surprised me a little . it should be in ukrainian companies, and

this is what should rebuild ukraine, it should be ukrainian companies and uh manufacturers, and wouldn't this be some kind of obstacle for a freer free flow of investments, and secondly, wouldn't it be create conditions opportunities, let's say for anti-corruption firms that we are a department 100 times in the history of ukraine, that's because we understand that the money will mainly come from the west, it's some billions of huge euros and dollars. to the european union, yes, it is definitely dangerous. go and i and leotualization, and protectionism is a fairly popular idea if the operation eh now, and what worries me the most

is that there is very little support for privatization, eh, now it is necessary заключить много privatizatsii eh, um, it was necessary, yes, this time, and finally, eh, we will hand over eh, eh, management of state-owned eh enterprises, which are special to me, eh, the topic is that eh, and of course, of course, all legal reforms of the judicial reform, the reform of the pro-prosecutor of russia, the reform of the espionage, all this must be done after

the hospital. we обычные э-э production is better yes yes what eh can attract a foreign captain and-y how is it now back escape from ukraine where different times are happening in the automotive industry this is eh eh true integration and there was no such thing the state's idea about how many percent was necessary for the production of god, this question is probably quite complicated, but we understand that the war will most likely not continue for 10 years in the active phase, that is, it means that some time when ukraine will start already transitions to a peaceful way of life , functioning, we will remain with the same government that we elected before the war, and we see how very

positively and coolly he showed himself in the role of president. uh, beyond its borders, that is, we really got a good, excellent leader, but uh, on the other hand, we understand that such people as hetmantsev, for example, remain very influential, and when we talk about the economy, it is economic issues will be on the forefront after the end of the war. that's how we should be. that's where we are. if there is hope. what are these reforms? what are these people capable of reforming? institutions in order for these reforms to take place after all because, well

, mistress hetmantseva's peculiar- peculiar views are often a-a er-er views. with such socialist and even communist things of specialists of ukraine, for economic development, after a lot of ukrainians today, who have excellent education, let ’s say after the orange revolution, there were very few of them now, there are a lot of ukrainians who have good education and good experiences abroad - to attract and so that it will not be a narrow group of personal friends of the president, it does not depend on the scoreboard

if they are competent, it is necessary to open a political one and of course there is no good market uh, ideas and very much needed in the principle of the european uh union for integration with europe, that here uh, a lot needs to be done, and then it is necessary to attract uh, lyubchyk, a specialist of ukraine, quite literally, there is only a minute left, but i will ask one more important question for me in we are quite popular a-a let's say so eh hypotheses that enlightened authoritarianism would be good for ukraine after the war in order to modernize everything very quickly what do you think about it dictators of the president will win

and for democracy this is the main integrity and thank you very much anders asland thank you -e was ours the guest is already er this is the last one for today for today positive emotions we are ending this broadcast er that democracy will win we will win we believe in it the only thing left is to wait with maria klyuk er these worked for you

this this hour maria longer i joined in this way, i think that at the last opportunity, well, tomorrow will be and yulia will also be in pecheneg, but the live broadcast has been going on with us since the very morning. therefore, please join from nine in the morning. watch us. follow us. please, and take care of yourself. good night everyone and glory to ukraine for all the news. thank you for everything. thank you, machine. thank you. the marathon continues. we pass the word to our colleagues. good night to all. take care of yourself and ukraine