sanctions, he begins to actively frighten the world of nuclear weapons, including doing this and sending signals through lukashenka, which means that there is a nuclear button, and this means that the interplay means that lukashenka offers himself as a person who can somehow negotiate with putin so that they do not press the non -nuclear button pressed well, and for this, that's all, he 's trying to sell himself well, and then he's trying to blackmail the west in this way to achieve some acceptable conditions for ending the horror that he himself started. that's how i see this interview. it is actually very interesting and very revealing from all points of view from the point of view of what is happening now in putin's bunker from the point of view of what exactly lukashenko feels, who is definitely a scoundrel and aggressor and putin's vassal but also definitely a person who is so very cunning and with very developed feelings self -preservation and this again only demonstrates well, if someone

really thinks that belarus is democratizing together with the dictator lukashenko, there is no need for illusions, the latest news, six years in a colony for the girlfriend of the opposition blogger protasevich, or let's say the death penalty was introduced for those who interfere with the transportation of russian weapons to carry out attacks on ukraine among belarusian partisans, so we know what exactly such sabotage is, or what is the name of the russian-belarusian penal system, terrorist attacks, the death penalty was introduced this week. and also for those who thinks that belarus will have time to avoid responsibility there, its top leadership changes on the fly, so we also have news here to the contrary, the leader of the belarusian opposition, svetlana tikhanovskaya, has already visited the united states of america and provided very detailed evidence of the participation of the regime of the machine president of belarus lukashenka in the

russian war against ukraine. so they will sit on the same bench in the gas absolutely, and this was my amendment, they introduced belarus and specifically with reference to the decision of the un general assembly, which provides that if the country provided its territory for perpetrating aggression, in fact, it is also an aggressor from a legal point of view. well, also from an isological point of view. that is why this decision was also made unambiguously and was voted on at the level of the parliamentary assembly of the council of europe belarus is definitely recognized as an aggressor against ukraine oleksiy goncharenko, a people's deputy of ukraine and a member of the ukrainian delegation, was in touch with us via skype right now, we have the next inclusion, which will actually be dedicated to the energy embargo against the russian federation , yuriy korelchuk, an expert at the institute of energy

strategies from we are in touch with yuriy. greetings. good day. good day. i would like to talk with you in more detail about individual points of the sixth package of sanctions against the russian federation, which is likely will be introduced in the near future today is being discussed by the ambassadors of the european union and in which the main point is the oil embargo is currently partial we remind you that the european union intends to end its dependence on russian oil in the eu they say it will not be easy but we must do it according to the head of the european commission russian crude oil will stop being purchased in six months, and oil refining products until the end of 2022. what are the prospects and what will be the losses for the russian federation in the event of the introduction well, we really saw such a step. let's say it's another, we see another stage of approach to the

embargo, what was the opinion, it was from lux, since february 24, it was heard constantly from the other side, there are really difficult moments for individual countries. well, if they were used hungary, the czech republic and slovakia, in principle, they are the ones. why are they so dependent on russian oil? because there, in principle, their factories are oil refineries . by the way, they process oil according to the yura type. that's right, but they have the opportunity to process oil of other grades, or the same brand, norwegian or arab grades are lighter, so in principle, the question rests, you know, on the technical component. by the way, this is an important aspect, because even when we hear now and you say, uh, well, or would you tell me, maybe 6-9 months is the period we are talking about, so, well, at least now they are discussing what

if even an embargo is introduced actually, regarding the sanctions, it will take a certain amount of time. let's say yes, no deferrals, yes, and the term that will be determined for each country there, which will have the opportunity there to refuse russian oil or to switch to other sources, and this period is still being considered there for 6-9 months, and so it says about crude oil, yes, 6 months to stop purchases of other products oil refineries until the end of the year. that's right. yes , and. and here the real question is that, look, there is a political moment in this issue for everyone in this sixth, let's say, the stage of sanctions where the embargo appears. everyone puts the war in ukraine on sunday, so it will end in peace, that is, peace is meant . in principle , european companies will end like business and politicians. we also

see these statements, er, they also sound in this context, that is, they may also hope and count on the fact that these 6-9 months may be less, god forbid that the term be less this what it will be enough for let's say that the war in ukraine has stopped, and after that, this is an important aspect . after that, maybe we will see a simple, well, in fact , you know, the freezing of this issue, that is, formally, embar can act like this, that is, this sixth package of sanctions. yes, it will also have a bargo and some of the countries even go directly to it. well, for example, there is germany or france, the czech republic, there is slovakia, hungary. all countries will be able to do it later too. well, let's say so, i'll talk about ignoring this decision already. the sixth stage of sanctions is this question. it's an open question. why is it that we're talking about such a long period of 6-9 months? it's a political component. it's a political economic component. it's deeper. in my

opinion, it is more truly justified because what i started with is that this market is central european, well , central-eastern european, those countries really processed oil and their plants were designed and even when they passed modernization, they also modernized for russian oil, and that is why now if it is a question of them giving up russian oil and getting the opportunity to export and receive mediterranean oil where tankers already come with different types of oil, that is to say, this is where the supplies are and lviv is there oil, for example , there are also azerbaijani supplies of different kinds, but here they can get it through pipelines, yes, it will be more expensive, that is, delivery, well, the question is more expensive, if on another the end of the pipe actually at the oil refineries themselves, that is, how profitable it will be for them to process this oil. that is, let's say so, the profit margin is so. that is, it is a business, he calculates it today,

this is what we also need to understand, and therefore, accordingly, this aspect, why is it 6-9 months, it seems to me that it is not a realistic term, it is not realistic , that is, even after 6-9 months, we know, we can hear later, if god forbid, it will drag on, we will hope that everything will be resolved, and everything will be completed, but if it is delay, then we will after those 6-9 months. yes , we will hear another negotiation, we will see another document that will allow these countries, let's say, to extend the term of the use of russian oil products, in principle, in principle, on the side of slovakia . if i'm not mistaken, there were such uh official statements that it actually takes three years to give up russian oil and, accordingly, petroleum products , i.e. to process them accordingly from other types of oil, that is, somewhere around this time period of three years, so it realistic, but it is realistic already by the third moment, you know, it is not even an economic aspect, but an investment aspect, that is, who will be ready to

come and, er, reinvest in oil refineries, oil refining, er, in this, this type of economy in these countries and to transform them already under another type of oil, that is, even these three years may not be enough, that is, the modernization of a natural plant, even if there are investments, i will tell you that it continues somewhere, roughly speaking, well, more than three years, that is, up to five years, everything depends on financing is clear, but also from the availability of equipment and technology, that is, all this is constantly changing, which is being improved and improved, that 's why i say this question can stand even if we are not three years old and everyone understands it. by the way, it is also there in the czech republic and slovakia and in other countries understand that. let's say that everything is possible if there is political will, but it takes a little more time, and this is good news for us in principle , because if it can be done within three years, gradually reducing the number of purchases of russian

oil is already good, although there are also certain risks here, because a number of experts emphasize that as a result of such steps, the price of oil can jump up so much that even reduced sales in terms of quantity can continue to bring extra profits to the russian federation. well, to be honest, i do not share this opinion, because it means that if such processes begin, the price of oil may rise. i think that it will be about exactly what we see. en masse buys india, getting a discount there, well, up to $40, in fact, that is, they really today, the price of oil there is $110, will take a little less there, yes, they buy it for $65-70. and they do not hide it. by the way, absolutely yes, but the price, on the contrary, can even decrease to a certain extent, not not there, not critical , significantly, but decreasing, but in general, the important aspect will be the one that concerns us directly in ukraine, it is important, by the way, if we often forget about it what is the

druzhba oil pipeline that transports russian oil? oil not oil products and to the same hungary and to slovakia and to the czech republic yes he passes through the territory of ukraine and he is working today and here is an important aspect simply this is already an issue also well economic that’s what we say if we are certain there political economic etc. well yes it is possible to break down such an economic question, that is, if the transit of oil is stopped. yes, we are transiting about 12 million tons of oil, then accordingly, this enterprise will be stopped, then this is the second enterprise druzhba, so it goes, as it were, through e-e, through the north-western half of ukraine, through brody and next he is already going to the carpathians, to hungary, er, there to slovakia, so in principle, this is an important aspect , so far i would say so, well , i have not seen any official position, yes, and because it must also be understood , because at the moment, why am i saying that we provide this , in fact, a guarantee of the work of these enterprises. well, from the czech republic, slovakia, hungary, it’s their

workplaces there, people’s work is there. that is, it’s a social aspect, so i think that here , after all, what we say is correct, what if to list these political and economic components investment, yes, it should be combined decisions , that is, disconnected decisions. they will not have an effect, that is, if only a political decision is made, well, it will remain at the level of political statements. that is, it should be together, you know, a complex of such decisions, well, we see that actually in this introduction of exceptions for three countries probably, this is the manifestation of the wisdom of european politicians, who do not cut off their shoulders and carefully approach the question of where everyone's eyes are, the conditions that he is able to pull. but as it were, bringing everyone to the point that a decision needs to be made and it is necessary to actually transfer the plants of the enterprise to the use of other types of oil, which requires complex technological solutions, but it is still possible and this is the main thing, yuriy well, what about the gas embargo

, as reported by the world media, there is currently no consensus among the 20 seven eu members cessation of the use of russian natural gas fuel which has not yet come under the sanctions of the european union what are the prospects here and yet what is the main difficulty here gas is a more difficult issue and it was also immediately declared. i remember literally there at the end of february, that is, on february 27-28, when, let's say, all this was acutely perceived in the european union. and to admit, he honestly said that we cannot give up gas there because of oil, he also said but there were questions but about gas, and that is why today the position remains that they can give up gas, in fact, why there are also several reasons, if the first reason is that this is industry. that is, this is the work of industry in industrial facilities. well, if you look at it clearly , you know, life activities, that is, again, there are

jobs, taxes, business as part of the economy of countries, and the second point is that this is gas , which is a component of the production of energy carriers. i.e. not energy carriers, but heat carriers, i.e. in the case of heating and electricity production. that is, it is also a component for the social sphere. that is, it is the provision of electricity and heat to the population in the winter period, so there will be a lot of electricity there is also heating, it works in the european union , so these aspects are yes, and let's just say that they are stuck in a dead end, that is, if they refuse and want the country yes, but on the other hand , there is no alternative as such, so far. why even because those negotiations which we saw there well, how were the negotiations there, you know, the visits, the dialogue, i would say it is more correct to say the dialogue of the european countries there, the germans went there to qatar, the usa raised the issue of venezuela with iran .

were also imposed, and here the question arose that it is possible to increase some supplies there, and that also if it did not work out, accordingly, the issue of gas, well, let's say it stalled and stopped, and today it is about the fact that countries are simply trying to develop ways of delivering new volumes of gas, for example, from azerbaijan there are tana ptakh gas pipelines there, but these are small volumes, there we are talking about other supplies , and gas lynchings, er, again, qatar has free volumes, but there are not so many of them, so let's say the question stopped and even the case that we are seeing today is with poland from bulgaria. well, there if it was tied to deliveries for payment of e-e russian gas in rubles, yes. that is, we also saw some european countries accepted it and even the italian minister of economy he said that it is necessary to give a certain time there period to pay, and then we will figure it out, that is, you know this well, the perception of this is yes, we

see it, and it is present, and therefore on gas. in march, it was uh. let's say that the meetings of the european commission , by the way, they made a decision at the time that in the case of its walls, we were talking about gas, because we see that the high price remains. will the european commission, as it were, purposefully purchase the volume of gas and then distribute it among the countries? that is as i understand it, it was planned to allocate funds from the budget of the european union as a whole, and by the way, they also included ukraine, er, our state, that is, in principle, it is important because the heating season has already ended in our country and we need to prepare for the next fuel season and we see that we have, you know, as they say, the war is yes but internal problems yes, they appeared again that is, there is the naftogaz monopoly yes, that is, naftogaz of ukraine is actually there, well, it does not perceive with understanding the difficult situation that has developed on the market, no just the sale of gas. and this is the utility market, and the level of payment for utility services there has decreased - everyone admits that this is a huge

problem to solve and the state should contribute to it. well, naftoga, let's say, took such a passive position sorry, it doesn't seem very good to me, that is, but we need to think in terms of where we will take gas, because we have our own production, and god's word remains, and this injection will continue, but it may also be necessary to import certain options of gas from the european union, etc. actually, this is the plan of the european commission. yes, it is in principle. well, let's say it is probably predictable. this is what i think. you know this question. do you remember when we used to go in peacetime like this? that is, already in october, everyone started to mention that you are there during the inflammatory season and you need gas . to download it at this moment, it seems to me that in this period we need to really do it now and think about it now so that later well, let's say so in september, in october, let's hope that everything will be fine. first of all, this is important for the population and for citizens, because many people are returning to their places of residence, so they will pay for communal services,

they will have such a financial opportunity, this is important and, accordingly, they will need some kind of what are services? we used to say that services are not a service, they are a vital element. well, let's say it's a vital element. that is, it was gas, really. contributions to the ukrainian budget well, as for the prospects already after the war, yes yuriy, maybe they should think about building such liquefied gas terminals as in poland in the polish pig mouth, in your opinion, could this be a ukrainian scenario, well, he and in this scenario was written for us, do you remember and there were such plans? well, unfortunately, they are also very good if they came out then, because that story is known there with the ski instructor. yes, but in any case, he also rejects these, you all know the negative points that were the idea it remains, but now it is complicated

by the fact that practically the water area of ​​the black sea is blocked, that is, the question is also, again, god forbid, if everything really ends, then if there is such an opportunity, then it must be implemented so that, again , it is a certain alternative for the supply of gas so the price is different there, it will be higher. well, because uh, liquefied gas, lg gas, it is more expensive in principle than pipeline gas, but in principle, again, as a certain backup option, it has it. i.e. estonia e.e. latvia lithuania yes, there was a terminal there e.e. in lithuania, now they are planning to implement another terminal there so that in principle , let's say, i will provide myself with gas. the same countries er they well if gas is more expensive, so they either pass it

on to the population, that is, the population can pay a higher price if they can, again, or the issue of subsidies is being considered, including the european union, well, in our country, for some reason, they often think that all the rich people there know, well, if you just know to say no. for example, last year in the 21st year there were 21 billion euros only on subsidies for the population spent here on support. that is, it is not surprising that there are different people with different incomes and opportunities, so this aspect yes, it is for us for ukraine yes it should also play a big role because our financial situation is economically yes it perceives it is difficult yes we have mr. yuriy thank you for this detailed review yuriy ku- korolchuk expert of the institute of energy strategies was in touch with us we talked and about the effect of the oil embargo, which can be introduced in the next few hours as part of the sixth package of european union sanctions against the russian federation, and they also talked about finding a consensus on

ending the use of russian natural resources gas and about alternatives for ukraine on the long- term perspective, now we have the next inclusion ilya ne shkadovsky, director of the institute of social economic transformation, and oleg penzin, an economist, are with us on skype. greetings, gentlemen . good day. good day. i hear and see you well. to discuss with you the last speech of the president of ukraine volodymyr zelenskyi at the international conference of donors for ukraine. reconstruction of ukraine and mentioned the marshall plan, a modern analogue of the strategic plan of international support for ukraine, which actually should consist of financial assistance

, money, technology, specialists, and the patronage of certain countries over various ukrainian cities and regions that were affected by hostilities in the process of their reconstruction, let's start with you as a panel, let's start, what do you think about the marshal's plan for ukraine, what are the prospects, what are the priority tasks, because the direct losses of ukraine due to the war, well, as of now, it is extremely difficult to calculate them, but as of the end of april, we were talking about tens of billions, which are approaching hundreds of billions. and this is only according to preliminary calculations. ks and the institute ask for your word. to respond accordingly to the decomposing economic situation that exists in the country

, therefore, positively evaluating, understanding that it is necessary, very good that the world is helping us, very good that we are given appropriate financial resources in order to support our budget in order to continue payments to state employees, to pay pensions, etc., it is appropriate to bear obligations to the citizens of ukraine, and yet, there is still a caveat why because, at the moment, i see active work on collecting funds there is not enough vision of the government itself and the direct authorities of what needs to be done, that is, they are now evaluating exclusively only in the context of infrastructure restoration, but the marshall plan - it was a qualitative step forward in order to, accordingly the countries received development a-a, that is, when they , respectively, instead of being exported from them technologies, resources, investments were made in them , technologies, resources. thus, western europe ensured itself for a long time and began to grow, and

here, for now, let's say such a statement of specifics about what should industries develop, how should they develop, how will they be supported to date, i have not heard, but positively evaluates in particular, for example, a statement about e-e let's say yes regional support when a separate the country supports a specific area. i think this is a great proposal - it will give an opportunity to structure aid somewhere, not to disperse funds and to see how they are spent . i very much support this proposal. it is also aimed at the decentralization process that is currently in ukraine. mr. oleg, mr. olezhe, what do you think the marshall plan for ukraine should look like, and how should we restore our infrastructure,

our uh, and civilian objects, and uh critical of the infrastructure, we see that the couple previously voted for the resolution for the creation of an international tribunal against the russian federation , including for economic crimes against ukraine , and it is also about urbicide, the destruction of our cities, and food crimes, which currently threaten the whole world not only to ukraine by famine , but still, in your opinion, at the expense of, who, what do we have to build this recovery plan, and after all, what should be the basis of reparations from the russian federation or the european western i am asking for the help of a collective action no, well, first of all, look, i support his colleague, that the president's speech was clearly significant, but it was hardly necessary

to expect any deep specifics from him. for ukraine, in humanitarian issues, in issues of support by specific countries to regions of cities of ukraine, well , that is, you understand, it was a general appeal without deep specifics, they could not have it concrete because, first of all, time was limited , and secondly, specialists should work and not at such representative meetings to discuss some nuances and details. they should be of two directions, the first is actually donor aid to the world, investment funds, and the marshal's own plan should answer the question of how, where, and how it will be carried out, and the second direction

should definitely be reparations from the russian federation is already taking a fairly large amount of action on this issue, and look at the united states of america, as of today, a bill has been submitted regarding the, let's say, the channeling of the blocked funds of the russian oligarchs of the central bank of russia to the reconstruction of the ukrainian economy is not a quick process, but at least the first step has been taken. similar things are happening in some european countries. there will definitely be lawsuits against these funds, because in any case, it will be necessary to look for some legal remedies. the basis for the frozen funds to change their direction and be aimed at restoring the ukrainian economy, this is a very important issue, an active discussion is ongoing and in the european union, talk about it to the prime minister of ukraine, denys myhal , at the same conference of donors in warsaw, and we know that there

are other discussions are ongoing in the united states of america, however, i would like to finally hear your opinion about what, after all, in what state is the russian economy today, what to expect in the near future and how much will be enough of internal reserves to continue this war, bloomberg says that russia is on the verge of default, but we have been hearing this for quite a long time, for many weeks, experts say that the russian economy is degrading, and even if there are some payments , this is only a temporary respite, since moscow has to constantly pay interest on currency bonds so, your forecasts are literally one minute at a time, mr. ilya, let's start with you . well, as for default, you need to understand that all the consequences of default, with the exception of only the seizure of assets which are abroad and certain restrictions are already in principle implemented in russia, so it is not worth expecting a strong default, there are serious problems -

this is the main thing about the economy, even in march the forecast was fluctuating, we said that there are adequate reserves, there are adequate contracts , the economy cannot to deploy there in one week and immediately collapse. moreover, such a large economy as the russian economy, and these stocks, they run out in august, that is, we still need to wait at least two months, respectively, and in at the beginning of september, we will see the large-scale closure of many enterprises, the dismissal of workers or a reduction in their wages, and then there will be an outright economic collapse, one might say, the laws of every russian, well, look , there are even already statements by the russian establishment, there are statements by mrs. nabiolino and lira, the head of russia 's contrabank about the fact that the economic reserves will be enough for two or three months, well, in fact, she admits

that there will be a rather serious crisis, which will primarily be related to the lack of the latest technologies, spare parts, components, i.e. all of that without something russia cannot exist today, but i repeat once again sanctions do not stop hostilities sanctions do not stop aggression only the strength of the ukrainian armed forces stops aggression serious military and technical assistance from our partners is hardly worth expecting that the russian economy will collapse very quickly and due to the impossibility of financing because it will stop no economist oleg penzin, director of the institute of socio-economic transformation, will not do this