and this time they will be connectors, pressure will be changed, new companies will enter the market, it will already be fixed, you know, it will be cemented. that is why we have to hold out for these several months of political uh-uh , in fact, the autumn season. thank you very much for an interesting conversation , interesting information. the school of economics, the adviser to the head of the president's office, friends, well, we have a short break of three minutes and we will return to the air and we will chat with a very interesting guest: the president, the owner of the investment company concord capital ihor mazepa in a few minutes let's see each other, we'll talk about how to live, we 'll get over it, we'll get over it, we'll overcome it, we'll overcome it, we'll win and shield news , together we're strong hello, mom, you don't know about you and to see everything they did to you, mom is young, it's

hard to see the future and the past, it's hard to remember the smell of spring in kyiv, the singing of the peaceful cheeses , the dawn on the roofs of lviv, how we dived with friends into the black sea, the taste of ice cream on the square in kharkiv, and fear, the time of courage, the time of struggle, it was never so sweet for us to distinguish ourselves by language, origin, unity, even though we quarreled with each other before, now we are all as one , everyone around you is ready and determined, new times give birth to new symbols. good evening, we are from ukraine, a symbol of our indomitability and indomitability, a symbol of

revenge and memory of our ancestors, a kind heart and motherhood, a symbol of the family of the hostess, a symbol of despair, and the main symbol of fantastic people oleksandr makhov died from the shelling of the occupiers oleksandr worked for many years on the ukraine and ukraine 24 channels and covered events on the frontline oleksandr served in the armed forces of ukraine makhov

was the only journalist who was on board the plane that carried out the evacuation from the coronavirus outbreak. oleksandr called the trip to antarctica a short vacation. oleksandr makhov. professional friend. one future together we are journalists facts details news and today in the studio from kyiv to telecity between kyiv and berlin

from tsn what is common between the second world the modern war of russia against ukraine, how the so-called great patriotic war became a weapon of russia, why a pretended friend became an enemy and unleashed the biggest war since the second world war, and how europe rallied to help ukraine defend common values , the free world united for ukraine in its bravery in the struggle for freedom and self-determination on the 8th and 9th of may watch the special marathon of unified news two wars are not the future we remember and win every defender of ukraine has his unique

superpower meet major general viktor nikoliuk the calling wind, he sees the plans of the enemy everywhere, like the wind knows no obstacles - a man clearly under his masterful command, the cossacks regularly give rotten in the army of russia, which bears huge losses, now the wind has the title of hero of ukraine, glory to heroes, glory to ukraine, ukraine, glory to ukraine , everyone is talking about the support of our country ukraine protects the whole world from the russians, we have always advocated democracy and were the first to create a democratic constitution. 10% of the world's grain exports are provided by ukraine. we accelerate the global

digital transformation and were the first in the world to create a state in a smartphone and today, for the sake of democratic values ​​and our victory, we have united the whole world that knows that ukraine is a country of free people, victory is ours, we will transport, we will win, we will win the news together we are strong 1+1 is back on the air night watch with you in the second part of the program. well, the second part is just a continuation of the first. we are talking with the owner of the investment company concord capital and ihor mazepay. we will talk about what is happening today in ukraine. we talked in the first part with timofey golovanov about the sanction, i would like to talk with igor about what is currently happening with ukrainian business good evening panel good

evening but i would like to start with your words, which have already been quoted on the internet. yes, there is a risk. you recently gave an interview to forbes . there is a risk that we will return to the year 1996 and to a salary of 150 dollars, and you know. i understand that the words of a person who works in investment banking, they simply do not sound like that. yes, every word of yours. well, it can affect something behind these words is eh not just a desire to be hyped there, yes. and there is something interesting to say, but there is some kind of analysis. please tell me what led you to such conclusions. calculation of ukraine this is the so-called production of exchange goods, metal, grain, coal, ore, and secondly, it is a consumer

complex, as for the first one, in a situation when all parts of the portion or the black sea are closed to ukrainian producers, and in fact the entire this a huge business and a huge economy, and which greatly pleased our country, it costs uh, grain cannot be taken out, metals cannot be taken out under the threat of next year's harvest, maybe he will give birth, god forbid, what he will give birth to, but a very big question will be provided that they will be about it closed ones simply will not be able to be taken out and sold and, as a result, to get this money for this, the first story is the second story, now the economy is working somewhere at 40-45, maybe 50%. this means that only half of our citizens continue to work and receive wages

unemployed or went abroad, a significant part of which we already know there are 400 columns says that more than five million for our co-operation for citizens, unfortunately , they have left ukraine. they served the domestic market , processed the products, sold them to our colleagues, unfortunately they are losing or have already lost a significant part of this market, and therefore these two factors are the most important, which, unfortunately , leads to the fact that the country will very quickly will lose its value and, unfortunately, a person will have sources, there will be earnings. and what

professions will be in trend? well, we see that the market is already being redistributed. so people who lose their jobs better retrain, maybe give advice on which profession to go in, you know, we have started from the very basic forecast, if there is, if the war will continue and er, such a story will last, i don’t know, there’s a mariyka or two, and then, really , this scenario will be, uh, it will be the worst scenario , it will come true if we win or the end of the war, i don't know, until the autumn, in principle, it will make it possible to return our people , firstly, and secondly, it will lead to a massive influx

of investments into the country, unprecedented so far. this will also include political money , government support, and this will be there will be private money, and when private enterprises from all over the world will essentially invest money in ukraine, and then very quickly it will all come back ah, as for the profession, well, you know, well, there is no such general advice here, for example, we already see that the profession of a builder is there for various constructions professions, it will simply be useful for millions of square meters of destroyed housing and industrial industrial facilities, for this it will be necessary to restore large infrastructural bridges and roads, this will all require very, very, very much such massive manpower and er and production capacity a- and our it sector, by the way, which also lost e-e in march. there we looked at the statistics in

relation to february, in fact, it is already a military month of march, and the narrow sector strativ e is 40%, e.g. since the beginning of the war, but fortunately it is still at 21 -th year and, in principle, it remains more or less the same as the working sector, therefore, uh, there are mathematical tendencies, uh, at the end of the war, there will be a military man, a bridegroom, then a construction worker, and then an it technician . i am very interested in the situation of our banking sector, yes, we remember the 14th year of the bank collapse and, well , you know, this is already the ukrainian pain, the lost money of people, we know that well, we see that now the situation in the economy is not easy, the question is not clear at all

what kind of money does the country live on today, what is happening in the banking sector and your investment profile, how much money went from ukraine to investors and how to return it? that is, i am not, i cannot even imagine what could have been invented in the banking sector. what is it, when you say that after the 14th year, when there was a war there in the 15th year, and there was a bank package, not a single bank has fallen yet, and i am sure that it will not fall, there are statistics of the national bank that first started wars in two months, in fact, the resource base of the banks grew by 20% due to deposits, that is, the deposits of the population increased by 20% in the banking system. this indicates a very high

trust of our citizens in the banking system - this is something that did not exist in these 14-15 years. therefore, we can already confidently say that we are not done yet. as for our expenses, when the economy there works at half, in fact, at 50%, and there are absolutely no taxes there, nor excise tax, disruption of customs duties, which, by the way, were excellent by our government, in essence, our economy is now financed at the expense of our international partners for calculations according to analysts and concord capital, the budget deficit now amounts to about 3.5-4 billion dollars, as the equivalent of which is not yet

somewhere close to the amount needed to service existing debts, which already exist today, and in fact, all these expenses are now financed ours international experts, and i hope that they will continue to come forward in the future. that is how you answer in forecasting, or natalia, regarding professions, you said that let's set a certain point for ourselves in the fall if people return by the fall, but let's do it now. at least from your words, we will understand and what we will have life in terms of the economy until the fall, because if we remember the first month of the war, everyone is in a state of shock, and everyone there is familiar with the companies, they work for themselves in the second month, everyone already understood that something was going on, so they started yes, cut people's salaries a little bit, it was announced there that about half of the company is now being talked about downsizing and this is a trend, that is

, we have been recording such for three months. from the reserves, then half of it has already been reduced, and in the eyes of sorrows and in the future. well, they can’t imagine that if there was once there six months ago, people, business, planned something, now they live in the present day. come on, you just said this point, they called it autumn conditionally that we have until autumn what should we prepare for, in your opinion well, first of all, why did i call the point autumn, because on september 1, children go to school and those women who left ukraine with children, unfortunately if the children go to foreign schools in foreign countries abroad and go to school on september 1, then with a high probability they will not return, or at least they will not return home in the near future. this

is a very big loss for the country, for the labor market, and for the future -first and second now we see that there are no peace agreements there. i don't want to get into any military history, analysis, but already more businessmen are coming. we really need to tighten our belts because the war is coming. this is a very long phrase. most of my acquaintances are businessmen. they are from for various reasons, they believe that this war can continue there until next year, eh. that is, we have 18 months there, eh, such a sad life, to put it mildly, so it is most likely the next few months, eh, no i want to say years, but the nearest place will definitely be this such a sad life of al, like there in the 90s, with a salary or some kind of income. unfortunately, there

are 150-200 bucks a field, unfortunately, half of the people will be without a job, so join us in ukraine , well, well, the same main thing and these people will draw their existence only at the expense of the subsidies that the government will provide, you see, every month from its side the government will . dollars and this support is not military the e-e plan has already been provided in ukraine because 2,200 people are being paid for internally displaced persons, so the state supports us now, yes, the money, by the way, this is also a cool question, yes, the state pays out assistance there, even even for displaced persons, they are paid

by enterprises that hire internally displaced persons people and here is a logical question and where does all this money come from now in the country, how long , that is, we, we are talking here, well, we have come to the point that there is no system, there is no uh-uh predicted a-ah payment plan even for these subsidies, i.e. business now lives there and plans for there 2-3 weeks ahead, and unfortunately the government is forced to plan 2-3 weeks ahead because there is simply no such money. guarantors without non-refundable grants in the amount of about 5 billion dollars, this is enough for the country to be supported for a month or so,

external borrowing and support, unfortunately, remain the only single way of financing all low-may wants at least some social by the way, enlightened irynky, your opinion is interesting because, er, how does the war affect the economy of our country ? we not only see what we also feel. we see the world economy only from the point of view that russia has been blocked here, russia has been blocked there, that is, they are giving up oil there and so on, but only hmm more than 7,000 sanctions have been introduced there in two months, so this is a significant impact in general on the economic agenda in a civilized way of the civilized world, plus we are now talking about the fact that they are seriously considering the embargo on raw materials, how do you

think our war affects the world in general, including because of their i want to add in the context of sanctions against russia yes we asked tymofiy melovanova how long the world will endure the introduction of sanctions against russia, the economies of european countries are actually limited by them, because russia is a huge sales market, how can it change the world, will it not be a crisis like we have not seen in our lifetime if possible, i will answer your questions in parts. the first question is how has this war changed the world markets and exports from the black sea region. we can already see that the entire black sea region is almost already with the exception of a little bit of romania and bulgaria . all these products, which were produced there in russia, in ukraine, in kazakhstan, which

were also exported to world markets via the black sea, have all stopped, and this already has a very large negative impact on world prices and on food products, we see grain corn for oil and for the people's metals eh that is, it is already very, very eh even here there are the last two places of war, the world markets have changed in a very significant way now more and more western economists experts consider the greatest economic problem for the world to be the risk of inflation and eh inflation started even before the war in ukraine, but now this war is only fueling the fire, and unfortunately, the world economy is going into such a very long cycle, essentially hyperinflation, for example, in america

, inflation is expected to be around 9 %. well, there so that there are 40 years, there was no such inflation, first of all, and secondly , with regard to western sanctions, to what extent will the world markets and western partners be able to withstand the sanctions pressure, well, there are some forecasts that were made very much like this respectable analytical groups, our analysts, concord capital, made their predictions, for example, the country that depends more on russian gas in europe, germany, is so sure that the gas oil there will lead to the slowdown of the german economy for two from well i we will all remember that just last year, a happy

year led to a 5% drop in the economy. nothing happened, no catastrophe, there is still an alternative for our german partners, for example, is to simply lower the typical air in their homes by one degree and compensate for the physical shortage of gas, which is now essentially german, german business imports from russia, so there is no end of the world. i completely agree with milovanov who says that how much of it or how uh when when western businessmen companies government officials will survive this seam they will already get used to new realities, they will set up new logistics chains, uh, they are already used to it and the world will continue to live without russian goods

. ot i am interested in what inflation can be in ukraine, you are doing well yes i want i want because he understood me correctly inflation is around 9%, and the economic slowdown is around two percent well if, uh, if germany gives up right now on russian oil and gas in ukraine what can in in ukraine, we expect, well, first of all, a decline in the economy . unfortunately, if the war goes on there until the end of the year, we calculated somewhere in the concordance that there will be a 35-40% drop, which is very catastrophic. well, inflation may be somewhere at the level of 15-20%. well, for now, that's how i see it. well, according to the latest imf forecast for europe, they are predicting a double-digit inflation rate for europe, and you have to understand that the

situation there is even the simplest, yes , on goods in europe. well, it will definitely affect to our market because we buy all of it, even you know, for a recent example, this is fuel, yes, now we have simplified the mechanisms for importing gasoline there from europe, yes, but you have to understand that i looked at the tables there today. yes, uh, euro-60 there, euro 70 is the average there per liter, yes, you will be surprised if gasoline will be brought to us from europe at the price that we are currently selling, so in principle, these scarecrows are probably about uah 55-60 per liter, they will appear as an objective factor and you understand the conditions that, for example, there will be cuts in europe, well, this is again according to the forecast of the imf now we we see gasoline and all this despite the fact that our population's income level is starting to fall a little. and how do you

compare life when two such curves, well, which do not seem to be a combination, how can the country live in this option, there are no options, i'll tell you more in europe itself, in fact, all the logistics chains of the delivery of the same fuel to belarus from russia before the war were disrupted, and because of the black sea, somewhere around 80% was spoiled. and in one day just 80 percent of e-e supply just collapsed in one day and that's why now we are forced. well, why is there not enough fuel in ukraine at the gas stations, they are not enough because there is no fuel in europe, it is in europe, there is no fuel in ukraine, because it cannot be found quickly, and it cannot be done in a week, two , or a month 10 to build these deliveries of this and

that fuel here, that's why i really agree with your opinion that, unfortunately, the cost of living in ukraine will increase and the incomes of citizens will significantly increase . and came up before the start of the conversation yes, about $150, the question is now about salary, but for igor, the day before the war, there was a business meeting with the government at the bank, the next day, the war began and, well, the question of what was already discussed at the meeting two months, everyone figured it out. and please tell me now, is there communication between big business and the government regarding the issue of well, what is needed for business, what is needed for the government, is there this communication, or is everyone on their own with

their own problems? after the war we will sit down to talk, you know, i have never been a fan of the authorities. yes, and our economic e-e on saving economic property, but i really want to say that the authorities pleasantly surprised me, because e-e, all necessary steps are taken to support business and to support the economy, they are taken very quickly in coordination with the business and there is definitely a discussion. that is, there is no such thing as first doing something and then and then. let's see how it is. businessmen i know so far. so far. well, i see that i at least i support all the actions of our authorities there,

about 80-85 percent. as for the national bank, everything is there. systems received the exchange rate, by the way, now, the exchange rate on the bazaar differs from the nbu exchange rate by 10%. it's not that big, it 's such a big difference, it's exactly, exactly, ukraine dictates the dollar exchange rate, and in russia, the armed forces of ukraine let's hope that will be. thank you, mr. igor, for an interesting conversation with us. igor mazepa was actually from the investment company concord capital. listen, i think that. well, let's discuss something. yes, i just want to. i have interesting information, very fresh .