about some rules well, you have questions, so you win at the front and reform the country, and then please welcome. well, after the victory, there will be a lot of questions, and what you mentioned about the supervisory councils of others, legal bills and the shutdown of pro-ukrainian tv channels, well, war is really possible now this is not the time to ask such questions, but i hope that they will be heard after our victory. and most importantly, we will hear the answers to them, mr. oleksandr. thank you very much for taking the time to join us. have a peaceful evening and a quiet night. oleksandr chernenko, people's deputy of the eighth convocation, was in touch with us. and we are moving on. and then we will talk about the economy, for this i am ready to speak. good evening iliana shkadovska, economist, director of the institute of social and economic transformation, mr. ilya, how are you hearing ? and let's

start with the sanctions and the oil embargo, which everyone is waiting for, but for some reason the european union still can not agree on this issue. ready to make concessions, in particular, they are also considering the option of financial compensation for hungary because hungary does not want to introduce an oil embargo against russia. do you think there will be agreement in the european union on this issue? and if they introduce an oil embargo, how painful will it be for russia ? there is a reason for this, if it is simply not done about it, then it means, in general, a complete failure of the sanctions policy of the european union, because what is being done, of course, hits the russian economy, but without an oil embargo i am not talking about gas now gas

brings much less profits night oil but without an oil embargo russia will have money to continue the answer to finance its place to maintain its economy that is, all the previous sensors they are much less than oil machine. that is why it is necessary. and those countries that are now opposing it, let's say, there are two such points here. the first point is that they are directly related to the druzhba highway and receives this significant profits but at the same time, it is also their internal security, energy security, and at the same time, they demand compensation because some plants will have to be reconfigured to receive the corresponding other oil, and for the other, i have to do with two hungary separately, respectively, they require a longer period the arrival or rejection of

russian oil, and than they have now come forward with a proposal, that is exactly why i think that here in politics, uh , after all, there is also a lot of how we are trying to present, and yet the decisive role of the project economy, not all countries actually want to pay for their own security, that's exactly the way i see it, because it's necessary to understand that prices will rise a little. and yes, there are problems, but you 're paying this price for them now only because ukraine protects you, because you must understand that ukraine now actually bears such losses only by stopping this enemy of this aggression, and here it is already necessary. sorry, not only for the economy. talk, but actually talk to our partners. and about the fact that this fee is necessary for you to be safe, if you

do you want to be safe, i.e. watch history, how did the 39th year end, what did the munich agreement end, what did the absolutely sluggish policy of europe in relation to and mistake germany end , as well as the policy of fascist russia for today will be silver for you because you will be next, next will be poland, next will be then the whole of europe should be aware of this. perhaps at this moment , the economy is less, and more responsible for the peck of europe. how do you generally assess the sanctions that were introduced against russia because many experts say that russia will feel the maximum effect from them later, perhaps in a month or several months, that is, they compare these sanctions with a certain snowball that rolls down the mountain and only gathers momentum, do you share this position ah yes understand that the economy cannot

stop at one moment, there are always stocks, stocks of certain goods of certain products, there are some contracts that cannot be terminated in one second, there are certain investments that also cannot be terminated for one second, even the release of people, and this is a process when you almost pay for their work for two months. therefore, this is due to the fact that it gradually accumulates and already in russia itself i admit that they will have a disaster, they actually called it a structural transformation - this is it august is the month, well, let's say it's not even longer than that . maybe at the beginning of september, that's when mass factories will stop due to the lack of components due to the lack of raw materials due to the lack of logistics because very

a strong blow, ah, we often talk about specific companies, but a very sensitive blow to the russian economy is currently caused by the lack of cooperation with containers and transportation, that is, it does not matter what you are. deliver it to anyone in the world. because you can talk as much as you want about the fact that china will buy your oil from india or some other country. you will not physically do this very well, and the refusal to the insurance of the corresponding cargoes also hits the russian economy very hard, they are now increasing their costs on the one hand, and the general refusal leads to the fact that you cannot enter any port without this insurance. therefore, these blows are quite noticeable but they are accumulating like this and worsening the situation, some have already been

fired and people have directly lost their jobs, lost their earnings, but once again, they are like this. well, maybe not the maximum, because there will be another wave, in particular, for example, this is a matter of service airplanes is a matter of maintenance in cars it is a matter of train maintenance when there are no components they will break down and then accordingly we will have plane crashes , car accidents due to wear and tear from their equipment, as well as physical accidents when their trains will go off the rails in communication due to the lack of e-e service well, this is already a little longer period, most likely it is only we will see in the end in the end i apologize if you did not hear and at the end of the current year i have attention to disasters related to transport in the absence of components, that is, there is one blow when enterprises will stop and will not be able

to work, i emphasize this all again, and the second stage is when you will no longer be able to serve at work, that is, you have stopped your production and here the question is that you simply cannot serve what you have because russia has a very limited range of goods that it can produce, they are constantly swarming exclusively only with their crude component, today it has become it is known that the siemens company has announced the termination of business in russia. it is precisely because of the war in ukraine that the company has already begun the procedure for the termination of its production activities, nevertheless, companies continue to leave the russian market, but there remain companies that do not pay attention to all the atrocities committed by russia, for example , the auchan trading network, which the ikea company is still operating in russia, which supposedly left russia with this, i read today that they continue to pay their

employees, it seems almost until august, why on what do you think? is it true that the reputational risks that these companies can bear are smaller than the economic risks that the companies will bear if they leave the russian market, and it all depends on the extent to which these companies are represented on the russian market, and for example ashan is represented by a very wide network and therefore, the profit that will be obtained in russia, especially taking into account that some companies will exit, for them it is a sufficient weight, that is why they refuse to exit and are ready to bear the reputation risks in other countries, even paying more taxes, for example, in ukraine and so on, but continue to make profits there, but once again

, it’s not only reputational, we’ll see when it realizes how much solvent demand is falling in russia. it wasn’t low enough, but when there will be massive release when there will be no income in the proper income for the russians, then they will have to close due to the fact that there will be no one who will buy their products and the reputation will already be destroyed, this is why i personally think so that it is unlikely that the companies that now fundamentally remain working in russia will have some positive influence in the world, we will not forget this, we will remind you that you continued to make money in the most difficult times, money on blood, money that finances the russian army, that kills ukrainians. that is, you must understand what you are doing now right now, that is, it is necessary to exit in a timely manner, and not as a result of economic

sanctions of certain companies. they are sanctioned by the main parent companies, then they leave. it is precisely because of this, and the second point is economic . these three components are not only companies that are aware of their activities, but also, there are other reasons why they make such decisions not because of support for ukraine, but because they simply physically, dashes cannot work in the future. and because of another limitation that they have such a panel option, and with regard to the ukrainian economy, with regard to what is happening in our country, we are currently borrowing a lot of money, and it is good that the money is even flowing

, nevertheless, the time will come when it will have to be returned. well , and in fact, we are now paying back the loans we previously took, should we start talking about debt restructuring, or will these talks wait, and after the end of the war, after the victory, we will somehow start to sort out all these stories little by little. no i have to start now, because right now we have all the reasons, then they will say, well, the war is over. well, then, what is the strange policy of the ministry of finance about? the price and will receive , for example, because accordingly there is e from this when you grabbed it very cheap they are waiting for their trunk that is why there is no such conversation now because they would have to lose it it is very bad

information would be good if we knew who receiver of ukrainian military commitments well, of course, this is actually, well, it is not realistic to do because all this information is closed, but then the policy will be clear, such a conversation is needed that the international organization of the united states is already talking about it, can you imagine the united states, now they are considering the mandate period of the ministry of finance itself for in order to consider the issue of writing off ukrainian debts, that is, for now, the mechanism remains open, that is, how so much because we owe the united states 300,000,000,000 dollars well, these are just pennies compared to the total costs. but at the same time, the usa has a decisively important role in the voting of the world bank of the international monetary fund. i hope that this issue will be considered accordingly. but again, the position of ukraine today

is incomprehensible to me personally. i do not see any e there are valid arguments that say why there is no need to start conversations and there is no need to postpone negotiations because in 2014 it was quite active because they worked in this direction of course you can a-a to say that it could somehow be better, but i believe that even then nepo achieved progress in debt cancellation and restructuring, for example, a big question remains about the guarantors. i think it is possible to directly talk about their complete cancellation, absolutely complete cancellation, because ukraine the ukrainian economy will most likely fall by 30-45%. according to the results of the year, depending on how the military operations will continue in the next year, we will already receive economic growth, and the question arises why ukraine will be forced to

pay for these options is simply huge, it is not clear to whom the profits . that is why this question must be raised. and the options must be bought at the lowest price and or actually given to ukraine so that there is no such dependence of our economic growth on what we pay simply you. only such accordingly, it will be honest and fair, and of course i emphasize once again that there is no need to introduce a panel. i think yesterday i saw a draft law freezing the value of the utility company for the duration of the war and there are talks about the possible write-off of debts for the utility company. in your opinion, is this support for socially vulnerable segments of the population or is it still flirting with the electorate because well, we understand that the war will end sooner or later and we

will return to such a real policy before the elections, which 100% will be waiting for us after the victory, then here is the utility bill, what to do with it, because for a long time we heard from the imf that the cost of utility payments should be raised, because they are not correspond to market prices, and because of this we had many, many problems with our creditors, well, this is frankly propolisism, it is clear what should be done in this situation, that is, it is really human - so once your income, you must understand that in the event that you freeze the utility company, even those who had the opportunity to roll, he will not pay, but the company due to the increase in the price of gas, due to the increase in the price of service and so on, they will bear losses and someone has to cover these losses, and there is an option that they simply will not repair

capital expenditures as a result of which they will break down, support anyway, they will grow, or you will have the fact that you will not have water there for months due to the fact that there will be nothing to repair there, the corresponding road, the pipeline, that is , in this way, i consider it populism a what should be done, the right move that was implemented just last year is to help those who do not have a job, of course you need to review this e-e. sorry for the effort to not pay those people who need help by inventing new and new e-e demands so that they did not get such a well, let's say help due to the fact that they have some additional transport or something else , accordingly, a solution is necessary, so that all people who have no income, so that they receive compensation in the amount that is, and this approach is correct and this approach is rice is a fair campaign, those who provide services

receive money for their services, they will be able to provide quality services and in a timely manner listen, as well as compensate for those losses that are relevant people who have no income social assistance from the state in order to be able to pay for these services and, of course, so that it is not from their wallets, people who have the opportunity to pay, they will pay accordingly there is absolutely no need to act like that, after all, even in spite of the war, it is necessary to act wisely and act correctly in order not to wash away our economy , because i believe that this year during the war and a lot of mistakes were made in the economy , if compared to our army, which is excellent at stopping the enemy and fighting the enemy, then in the economy,

i sometimes even have the feeling that some kind of sabotage is at work, and in relation to the ukrainian budget and ukrainian entrepreneurs, what is this sabotage? it manifests itself, well, in what steps do you think are not quite correct? perhaps they are quite logical. well , it is a simple step - this is due to the fact that, for example, our exporters are not reimbursed for vat , as a result, our agricultural the enterprise has funds for sowing, on the one hand, and on the other hand, imports, respectively, a model was proposed for them, according to which they do not pay taxes when registered on the territory of ukraine, as a result, ukrainian enterprises simply do not have the opportunity to compete with them, because foreign products, respectively, have significant benefits next then this is the question of stopping the register in 2016 was in the register of tax invoices that allow enterprises to function normally does not give the opportunity to steal from the budget the reason why it was stopped it is not clear to me, but as a result,

companies sometimes do not show, do not submit reports and, accordingly, do not pay taxes. this is because they do not have the opportunity to register their tax invoices a, respectively , and calculate their taxes correctly. absolutely all of them today, eh, from customs payments is unreasonable , it was necessary to limit the amount of one car per person, i think it is absolutely enough, and the second was to limit the cost i'm sorry, now is not the time when a person has the opportunity to start a car worth 30 thousand euros and not pay any tax, there was a limit to some amount that would be sufficient and justified for such a thing , this was not done, it also applies to many other issues. that is, there are a lot of wrong decisions and as we can see that during the e-e coronavirus, the government ineffectively managed the state, in fact, it acted on the

avos energy crisis that was at the end of e-e in 2020, including, that is, it is constantly on them works for 8, they don't act, they don't make stocks, they create problems, then they are solved heroically. well, i think so, the state is not the action of the tv channels - it's, well, you're in that plan, well, of course, the panel deserves a negative assessment, and then i can't help but ask you about one more solution, what in what is happening on the fuel market with gasoline and diesel, more precisely, its lack , its almost complete absence. how can you comment on this? what is the language and the main one? that we will not receive the appropriate fuel from the same belarus. also, the fact that our auto

-refining plants on it was expanded, as a result, it has no opportunity to work. this, of course, is also a challenge, there is also the blocking of sea ports, that is, the logistics for delivering fuel is significantly complicated, and this objective reasons subjective reasons for regulation of fuel prices e-e this is a step that led to its absence in connection with the fact that e-e if you are set a price at which you cannot buy, then excuse the state when it is lost because of these by soviet methods of course this has negative consequences, and the second point is that the question is that they first canceled the excise tax and reduced the vat to 7%, and then there were talks about returning it, if you have already canceled it, you should understand that the return to the standard amount of vat and excise tax - this will lead to an incorrect situation, people will

buy fuel now, respectively, in order to buy now cheaper, so as not to pay 40%, 30% more expensive later, and even you do not need that amount of fuel, but you will fill up your car completely this way the doll refilled these canisters with a few more canisters so that you just had these canisters lying around, well , this is elementary behavioral economics and it basically tells how people will act in a situation when there is a war, there is a threat that you will not be able to leave , and this is such a wrong step and of the government have led to an imbalance in their current agreements. i think that it is again not enough, that is, the issue of increasing it to 200 thousand tons and importing it from poland is being considered, but it will not cover the needs, on the contrary. it was necessary to act more objectively, addressing citizens, i explain that, for example, about the need to save, and about the unnecessary purchase, that is, the government has again made a lot of wrong and erroneous years, even the limit of 10 liters, i believe

that this is an absolutely unfounded limit that leads to the fact that people stand in line 10 times in order to fill up for these days, letters as a result, again, are not based on people, when they see such queues, they do not become because they need it, that is, they are afraid that tomorrow there will be no fuel, thank you for your comments positions and explanations of many points ulyana shkadovska, economist, director of the institute of socio-economic transformation, we have little time left, so we do not waste it, but immediately add dmytro zolotukhin, an expert at the institute of post-information society, mr. dmytro evening. good, how do you hear us? good evening. well, thank you for inviting me. let's talk about finland, about the fact that it has already been officially announced that ukraine is going to apply for nato membership, it is supposed to take place on may 16, and they have already reacted to it in the kremlin, er, they say that this

they are a threat, and it is russia that will threaten them. how can you comment on how quickly it will happen in a row, it is possible that sweden will join just as quickly , and will there be any reaction from the kremlin apart from these verbal threats? i think that the entry of the prime minister of great britain will happen quickly boris johnson the way reported that the question is ready to provide er its er guarantees for the period until the moment when er when in finland still fell under the er umbrella of nato. there are problems with the equipment, therefore, the entry will take place, the decision has been made, russia is constantly trying to strengthen its position in relation to finland, sweden, but i do not think that any concrete real steps

will be taken, because they have nowhere to enter , nowhere to group everything they could, all the threats they could the environment they have already voiced, and in fact with constant messages that are heard by many representatives for and the last one was from dmitry medvedev of russia that there is no need to prove this situation when it can be used they constantly threaten nuclear weapons with nuclear weapons, this happens almost every day and that is why these threats are becoming less sensitive operational measures when, well, everything has already entered , they have already been intimidated and yesterday or the day before yesterday , the head of the us central intelligence gave her annual report and said that russia can succeed to the use of nuclear weapons only when putin feels a threat to his own regime how do you assess such

a statement and how high is the probability of the use of nuclear weapons by russia i watched these hearings in the senate of the united states of america it was the meeting of the committee of the armed forces of the united states and, in fact, the abric agency that said this, she cited the military doctrine of the russian federation, where it is written that nuclear weapons can be used in the event of an existential threat to russia, uh, because uh, mostly the majority of kremlin officials say that volodymyr putin and russia are one and the same, and accordingly, a large number of experts do understand that the existential threat to putin is equal to the existential law for the entire russian the federation, however, must understand that the existential threat to putin has already happened, that it even happened to him there and it ended. putin is,

first of all, a second-in-command, and this decision to launch a large-scale attack on ukraine was his last decision . but i believe that this decision has already been made and no matter how long we fought, i think that the fight will be very long , we need to prepare for a training marathon of problems that will not end. maybe in the near future well, we still need to muster the strength to run this marathon, but in my opinion, globally, history has already decided everything, vladimir putin. his days are numbered and the composition is over, and i also want to ask you to comment on the information, the american media reports that the usa has allegedly developed a recommendation regarding the exchange of intelligence, they will now not share information about the

presence of the military leadership, for example, on the territory of ukraine. i understand how it was with gerasimov when he was almost killed. when he came to ukraine well, they will not share information that would help ukraine to attack russian objects outside its borders . it is obvious that for the media, e.e., the intelligence community of the united states, which consists of more than 16 american agencies and special services, it basically makes a certain political position towards the media, which in no way refers to the specific intelligence work of the field of cooperation with ukrainian partners, therefore well,

this is a political statement that should have been made when, at the international level, in some backroom ways, russia announced that it considers it a direct threat to itself, since the flagship of the moscow black sea fleet was destroyed and a number of really high-ranking of generals who died there seems to be 12 people, this is the largest result in the entire history of the 20th century, who is among them? when such a number of high-ranking officers of one country die in military armed conflict. therefore, it is obvious that the russian side left. i think in the backroom such routes to the american side saying that this is an open aggression against russia on the part of america and in order to calm them down. i think that the political position of the united states required such a public announcement as you recall