watch more such stories on the radio freedom ukraine channel, we record the stories of those who survived and the stories of those who died in this war well, i urge you to subscribe to the pages of radio freedom and until tomorrow the war in ukraine is the main topic for ukrainians victories and losses analysis and forecasts politics and geopolitics about all this will be said by serhiy rudenko and the guests of his program, people who have information and shape public opinion, people who defend ukraine and create the future already now , the main interesting thing in the program is the verdict by serhiy rudenko from monday to thursday at 1:00 p.m. repeat at 9:30 p.m.

good evening we are from ukraine good evening we are from ukraine my name is vasyl zima i am with you today and my colleagues until 9:00 p.m. why did i show up at 7 p.m. not at 7:15 p.m. because today we will pass the full issue well, we are currently giving approximately 45 minutes to the kyiv security forum as part of the war cycle, it is called the struggle for ukraine, but now this broadcast is starting. let's watch together and at 19:00 and at 19:45 we will return and list of money oleksandr murchevka and the international review of yuriy fizrast now security forum welcome us on behalf of the kyiv security forum these days succeeded and continues universe ukraine has already named this fund to send points for the formation of a global plan for recovery in

ukraine at the same time there are many other similar plans of events in london in other capitals after the historic decision signed by the president of the united states, the job is about the allocation of forty billion united states dollars for ukraine, including military and military aid the total amount of american support for ukraine has already reached 53 billion. on may 23, finance ministers and heads of central banks of the group of seven countries, as well as representatives, announced the mobilization of almost 20 billion dollars of the united states for economic support of ukraine. the european commission just recently announced 9 billion euros of additional additional macro-financial support for the european the bank of reconstruction and development announces

more than 3 billion dollars, but these amounts are not enough , president zelenskyi said that every month the budget deficit in ukraine is approximately 5 billion dollars, the minister of finance serhiy marchenko mentions the figure when talking about urgent expenses for april, may and june, according to the estimates of various institutions from the national bank to the kyiv school of economics, the loss of physical capital in ukraine already exceeds 92 billion dollars, the loss of physical infrastructure is more than 97 billion 20% of our gdp was produced in the occupied territory, today approximately 25-30% of agricultural land is under occupation, according to state authorities, the state budget for march fell by 24%."

how to estimate the scale of our losses and what we can forecast for the future. what should be expected from the global marshall plan for ukraine, how to punish the enemy, achieve russian reparations and use the already confiscated resources of russia for the needs of the reconstruction of ukraine, these and other topics . today we will discuss with very authoritative participants of our conversations, and i would like to introduce them first of all, professor roman sheremeta , rector of the newly established, recently opened american university in kyiv, professor

department of economics, school of management at the university, case quest on wizzair in the united states , in the united states. gleb vyshlyn executive director of the economic strategy center thank you mr. vyshnivskyi for joining our conversation today good evening and arseniy yatsenyuk former prime minister of ukraine and chairman of the kyiv security forum and i immediately i invite mr. roman sheremet to speak, mr. professor, how do you assess the economic situation and what do you see as the perspective of the nearest medium medium term because as i understand what serhii marchenko says in particular in an interview with the magazine to

icons that if the war lasts more than 3- 4 months, ukraine will have to take drastic steps , a sharp increase in taxes and a hundred and one cuts in spending, this can have complex and more complex consequences for our economy, your opinion, what is your overall assessment, please, congratulations, friends, colleagues, well, first above all, i want to say that the situation is really difficult and we expect it, it is not something unexpected, because first of all we have to throw all the resources that we have at our disposal to ensure that ukraine wins the war against russia and this is clear relative to the situation we are in now. yes, we are in a difficult situation. the world bank. for example, if you go through the main points of the world bank's forecast, we say that sometime in 2020, ukraine's gdp should fall

by about 45 percent, this is the figure which often uh, it is in the media, and in principle i partially agree with this figure, partially no, because in principle it will depend very much on how it will continue its number on what scale and so on therefore, i am still more optimistic us clubs that, after all, the gdp in ukraine will be somewhere at the level, it will fall somewhere at the level of 35%, but again, the world bank gives an estimate of 45%."

well, these are the second element of the world bank's forecast, the third element is that, after all, and the world economy will collapse because we ourselves understand ukraine is a very serious player in the grain market, the oil market, that is, the agricultural industry, and of course this will entail quite a lot of problems, even today we already have all the people. markets that were, our site is not fully developed. if it could be that and the third third. i

apologize . ukraine and of course, the economic slowdown will spread all over the world, if you celebrate the stock markets, they have completely burned out. well, one of the biggest collapses that we have had in the last i would say, well, 10-12 years, this is because even in 2020 , when the market was everything was very sharp but it grew quickly in us now it is just slowly everything falls falls falls that is why the situation is difficult the situation is difficult not only in ukraine but also in the whole world so that you understand that we are not the only ones who suffer because we often make everything about us very tight so it's bad, but in fact the world is also suffering because of this war, and prices, for example, in the united states, where he lives, now the price of gasoline has doubled

, that is, they, too. the statistics are sad, i still see the light at the end of the tunnel. why, because now a lot of resources are being thrown specifically at ukraine, and that's it. today i am in london at the london school of economics. we are starting today, tomorrow we are starting a forum where we will discuss by world experts, it is the marshall plan for ukraine that we should do, what should we do, on what principles should this plan be built, but in general, world support, except for the number you mentioned, it is premature, that is, in principle , even the united states of america itself did not say we have given you 40 billion dollars and this will be the end of our aid. that is, we are talking about the constant aid of these countries, and we are the only thing that we need to do now, very much . in different countries, including us. somewhere last week, a man called me in germany

, one of the condensants of germany, he said, "says roman for- during this entire period of the war in germany, there was no one for our eh from our parliament, one inna soson" or who it was, i don't remember who came to germany and tried to lobby for ukrainian issues there, yes, we need to spread this type of lobby in all the main countries that are currently working with us or are not helping us and just constantly knock out the eyes an additional five billion, 6 billion, 10 billion, in order not to take any drastic steps, as you correctly noted, where we will raise the tax rate , reduce payments, and in fact, we ourselves are slowing down our own economy, we cannot do this, we cannot do this, therefore very it is important that this shortcoming that we have is replenished at the expense of the world e-e direct infusions from other countries or from various reserves of the world

bank of the international monetary fund and so on. that is how i see the situation. thank you very much for your assessment, and here i wanted to ask right away, let's imagine that the government of ukraine is listening to our discussion, and you now have the opportunity to give one or two or three pieces of advice to the government, what logic should be chosen in order to restore the country. how do you see the meaning of this the very philosophy of recovery is also for supporting small and medium-sized businesses, because it is people who are most interested today and this is the basis of our security, that is why we are discussing it here, see your word first of all if i would advise the government to listen to business, that is, if we want to talk about the restoration of business, then of course now there is a coalition of the union of ukrainian entrepreneurs from this salary of the chamber of commerce where the main such players of the medium business of ukraine have gathered and they already have a memorandum. they

have certain principles according to which they would like to see the development of the ukrainian economy and so on i would say that the government first of all, but not in london , and we will work with a group of world economists on the marshall plan for the development of ukraine, when will this document be released, when will it be released specific package proposals from such a global ukrainian government should take it into its hands and say look, this is what they gave us such recommendations. let's go through it and draw a conclusion ourselves, that is, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this is the second one, the third one, it’s also from the same government. we now have these government meetings that are held. every day, i am also a member of one of these groups, and they, to be honest, often transfer from empty to empty, where are these meetings held, but the basic principles are not discussed the development of the ukrainian economy, i.e. will we still allow for minimal intervention by the

state apparatus in the economy, will the economy be regulated, will there be high taxes or will there be low taxes, i.e. what kind of economic model should we build on what principles, this message is not in the form of an empty transfusion empty, there are specific good proposals, specific , but there is no general principle. and it is very problematic that even when you evaluate a particular proposal, it can be good for her one plan but bad for another plan, depending on what we have a general plan, a general position of principle, after that we can talk about specific draft laws. that is why it is very important and, unfortunately, such an adjustment is not happening today. that is why it would be an advice for me to listen to to these main groups that are already engaged in this, create a principled position on how our economy will be developed, and already then we can talk about how to attract funds, how to

take these funds from russia, how we can foreign countries to also attract international investment and so on. thank you very much. you have already mentioned twice that tomorrow in london we will start discussing what is called the marshall plan, a new marshall plan for ukraine, named so by analogy with the post-war marshall plan for e- reconstruction of post-war europe, here is an interesting moment, if you see it as the main priority of such large-scale aid and its institutional institutional capabilities, it should be the group of seven and ukraine - should the money simply be transferred to ukraine or is it there should be an international board that would accompany this aid, uh, what are you going to talk with tomorrow about the marshal's plan, your word, this is a very interesting

question, and i think that it will take a lot of time for this supervision, which will take place in ukraine, so what you see here is a very difficult situation, on the one hand, ukrainians are shedding blood for the sake of protecting this world, and that is why they want to hear that their voice is no longer heard, that is, they do not want someone to push them and say, look, guys, you should to do so and so even though you actually protected the whole world from the rascals, that is, it is clear that yes, yes, it will be a complicated procedure, i personally have a vision for it to be international, er, such a bordeaux in trostyanets, which will consist of, let's say, a panel of 10 people eh- of a serious caliber, and some of these people must be ukrainians or at least have ukrainian roots. and they will be in charge of the main ones, let's say, or

the supervisor will take a look at the implementation of the main principles according to which these funds will be distributed they can't do micro of course it's clear , nobody will do it, but for example, we'll say there we collected this one trillion dollars, we took half of the russian gold-rich savings from the oligarchy and so on and 500 million dollars, we have another 500 billion dollars we still received help or direct assistance from the international monetary fund or the world bank, something went direct from denmark, britain, america, and so on, we have this trillion, there were questions about how to further divide it. and here is this supervisory board that will to help the implementation, but in addition to this, we must already have a specific in advance, in principle, we throw this part into the development of the agro-industrial complex, which part, on what principles, to whom is it given, or is it given directly to farmers or is it

given to some e-e enterprises and so on, the second, for example, there is finances that will go to the stabilization of the financial system of ukraine, for example. that is, will it be given to the national bank or will we still give to private banks in order to? well, it will go through the national bank anyway but we can, well, let's say pledge the national bank to distribute these finances among private banks and according to what principles and so on , that is, we must draw up principles and this supervisory board will have to help control it by implementing these principles not for micro - by the management, namely for the implementation of these principles, finally, here is a short question about your feeling, because i am sure that the ukrainian government is turning to you for advice or advice, or for your thoughts, or in the government, do you feel the understanding of exactly the need

of such approaches uh in- how do you how do you see the situation now unfortunately unfortunately no you know i will say yes i am of course there is a war that is why we support our government as much as possible because i also support the president who he did not run away, on the contrary, he showed that he has nerves of steel , and this is of course wonderful, but at the same time, we have the same problem that we had before it started. and this is a purely banal issue of the government's professionalism and understanding of these situations. and here , unfortunately, i i don't see. unfortunately, it's clear. i really like you thank you for your answers. we will continue and maybe we will return to these topics. i would like to invite mr. hleb of vyshlinsky hleb to speak. thank you very much for joining in. i would like to develop . do you think

that the gdp of industrial and agricultural production will fall this year, and that you would advise to do your word to curb the fall? yes , thank you. to the truth in the basic scenario, because we understand that now there are a lot of scenarios of how the war will continue, and we see even four of them for our purposes, and i will not go into details now, but of course each of these scenarios leads to its own indicators for this year, we already need to think about the next one, what is also important, that is, the fall of the economy is such a philosophical concept for most people, but as for the incomes of citizens, i think the fall here will be a little smaller , but still significant it will think 25 percent if

we are talking about the real incomes of ukrainian citizens, unemployment, we see that according to surveys it has already increased from approximately 9% to 6% in april, that is, it is from the economically active population, these are large numbers, and this is what actually causes pain for specific ukrainian citizens. and what, in my opinion, it is important that this crisis, the economic crisis, is connected with the war, it is extremely difficult, and well, that is, any attempts there to offer one or two solutions, which are the questions you asked colleagues of the novel, there is one, er, three steps, in peacetime, i often had these three steps which could be proposed now these steps are realistically 33 that is, because there is an extremely large number of problems that appear that need to be rolled out with

pens in places, that is, the market cannot help itself despite the fact that i am its liberal economist with those questions that arise and a lot of intellectual challenges also because you don't know how, in different scenarios, different groups will react to it. and what can be done to stop the fall? well , first of all, you need to understand that there is a direct dependence on of the security situation from these actual scenarios of war, we understand that a-ah a war to complete victory it has its price and this price must be understood by the authorities when making a decision, and the perception of security is also very important because we hear a lot of such conflicting uh, messages from the local authorities, do you remember how it was in kyiv? don't come back. or maybe you're coming back. maybe someone will come back and contribute accordingly. well

, i understand that it's a big responsibility, but still, even to open a business, you need to clearly understand more or less how many of your customers have returned or does it make sense to open up because these are processes where one thing pulls another, that's why an honest conversation with citizens about the perception of security , about the level of security and how they can perceive it about what will already be thought about with the new academic year. from september 1, if the same security situation as now is maintained in those territories where there are no hostilities, and then, actually, as a result of this, we should see the return of citizens to ukraine on release and safer territories and actually safer from the

even safer conditional ones of western ukraine because there are also gaps here when people who arrive in western ukraine often do not have jobs, while their company in central ukraine cannot work at full capacity and actually this is a start from the increase in business load, and of course the key factor around which there are discussions now, in particular in the same reason, is the unblocking of ports. because this is the only such big factor that has a very big impact on the dynamics of gdp this year, what the government is already doing a lot is the establishment of expert and import logistics channels, the actual issue is the fuel increase of the throughput capacity of the western border, but here, in fact, it seems to me that the government is doing quite well and clearly sees these problems and is trying to solve them, but very

an important, very important thing - it's so conceptual , that's right, roman will be at this discussion in london tomorrow, i wanted to also introduce this element, this discussion, which so far many people perceive the process of restoration as a process of when it will begin, which will begin when the peace agreement is signed, at the same time when i read the news and messages of the ukrainian authorities, there is a clear understanding that this peace agreement will be signed , it is not known when and, accordingly, if... a peace agreement was signed, this means that we have occupied territories and those territories where, for example , there were some losses due to missile strikes . to the ukrainian economy already this year, and also what concerns those enterprises that were in the

de -occupied territories. what was destroyed, from the point of view of the market economy, these were strong, good businesses that no one helped, that had good business ideas, that built their facilities, warehouse facilities , retail networks suffered a lot capacity around kyiv and they need to pay special attention, starting with help in fixing losses and ending with further legal actions and ending with state guarantees for loans for the restoration of these enterprises, it is possible to find an opportunity to provide them with a zero rate through state subsidization of such loans, and finally this a well-thought-out macro-financial and currency policy , that is, the main thing here is to do no harm, that is,

not to make some simple wrong decisions and to preserve the key role of the private sector and to ensure controlled inflation to a minimum, a minimal impact of restrictions on the economic activity of the soil. thank you very much. was also provoked by russia's direct attack on crimea and donbas in the 14th and 16th years. you can compare, you ca n't compare different situations, nevertheless , reasonable steps were taken to get out of the crisis, and one of these steps was, or rather, one of the methods it was a communication by society, well, a conversation by society, so the next question i have for you is the question that probably everyone

asks themselves today. confidence, lack of understanding of how to get out of the fuel crisis. do you feel that there is an understanding of how to overcome this objective problem, and obviously not only objectively, that is, there are some mechanisms for it and uh, isn't there a food crisis in ukraine? your opinion, your word, ah, as for the food crisis, i think that there is no threat as for the crisis in the fuel market, of course there are infrastructural limitations, which the market and the government are now honestly overcoming. i think the situation will be better , but i remember you mentioned 14 a 15 years ago, i looked at arseniy petrovich. what was

the advantage of that policy? and what was carried out at that time ? many mistakes were also made in the government and the national bank. who at that time, but what happened? it was an honest policy that well, it doesn't happen wars without a price for the citizens because now it seems to me that what was on the fuel market was very revealing that ah, we don't want ukrainians to pay more for fuel, so we will regulate the price, that is, i remember that happened with the price of gas in 2015, and then on the 16th, a subsidy mechanism was devised and implemented in full, but no one told the citizens that the

price of gas would be stable now. will be regulated and it will be fixed that the price of gas will not increase, the price of gas will not increase, the price of heating will not increase, and the price of electricity, of course, will not increase either. maybe it will not increase because this is the specifics of this market now. i think there should still be something more about communication here thank you and here, finally, a question about the marshall plan eh in eh in the novel in london our very many of our colleagues have succeeded and are discussing the elements of what needs to be restored what is your main conceptual idea and what would you what recommendations could you make forgive me what i will say here about one two three hey although i absolutely agree, you understand