practically the result is that no one demands from the natos immediately after madrid to accept ukraine into their ranks or to start this process, instead to determine some more or less real prospects for our membership in nato, to outline some steps or an action plan for membership, as i have already mentioned, these are absolutely real steps that we we can get , that is, so that it does not happen like this, you know the vague wording, as it was in bucharest, that the doors of nato for ukraine and georgia remain open, but you know, they both open and close a if the alliance too clearly indicates and positions itself as such an alliance that is ready to accept ukraine under the conditions of fulfillment of all the necessary requirements, then we can talk about something more realistic on this other path about this sub-topic regarding nato membership or at least uh, the status of the candidate

, uh, your expert colleagues predict, uh, that somewhere in the middle of the summer, maybe closer to august. well, in two or three months, when our military exercises, when there will be more weapons, uh, there will be a possible turning point at the front and we can to counterattack just in the summer and there will be a meeting on nato, we know how russia reacted to the desire of finland, sweden to integrate into the north atlantic alliance, will this not be a certain impetus for the russian federation to make even more drastic movements, because they even heavy weapons say that we will hit the decision-making center, which is not only based in kyiv. well, you know, of course, they can say anything, but the situation is such that in the near future, that is, if we we are talking about the next 3-5 months. well, they are unlikely to be able to deliver any serious blows,

taking into account the fact that we will receive more and more weapons, we will be able to counter strike . and how to say sorry, it is difficult to find the word, such a certain position that russia in its aggressive actions, as minister lavrov declares, she only wanted to liberate the donetsk luhansk region and the rest of the territories of ukraine must decide for themselves, that is, here i see you know, it's a kind of element of the maneuver that russia assumes that we might liberate our territory. well, she hopes everything. after all, it's not enough for us to go to donbas, instead, it's quite likely that our territories will be liberated, so it 's for the near future, that is, until at the end of the summer , well, it is difficult to say that russia will be able to take any serious practical steps. well, to make it impossible for

ukraine to move towards us, mr. serhiy. and what can we expect from russia in terms of military in the coming months, because as nazar pointed out in russia the hysteria started after only the announcement that we could be supplied with more long-range weapons, heavier weapons and perhaps forecasts for the nearest physical and months of more aggressive actions, but already today we have a situation when, in fact , there are actually combat operations , that is, active combat operations, on all stretches of the front line related to the offensive are conducted only in one location and that is the location of severodonetsk. that is, we understand that it is impossible, you know. we do not live in a computer game, when you press a key, you already get fresh resources there are additional forces of the units or whatever, this is a rather long process because russia is already so exhausted, we actually destroyed their e-e airborne troops,

we inflicted serious damage on e-e parts of the so -called first that was going to which was the most prepared, that is, in order to prepare reserves are needed, months of hard, painstaking work must be removed from your storage, bring it to a combat condition, carry out a combat assembled unit, the tanks and the 62nd have already been deconserved . and there are no engines and everything has already rusted, but we know that there are more than 10,000 of these same tanks in conservation there in this part. by the way, you are here, katya talked about weeks. i know that you are more skeptical, you are talking about even 3-5 months can pass until that moment, until there is some parliamentary moment. justify your statement about this and please explain. for example, in the white house, at least the washington post writes that the m270 haimaris, which has proven itself well in syria and afghanistan, can

transfer to ukraine in the near future, but this is what will contribute to this turning point, it will not be long-range, so to speak, special modules and, accordingly, the shells themselves. yes, then they will fundamentally change what will be the situation on the front with the transfer of these weapons, but without the necessary cartridges you know, we say if we, er, why exactly 3-5 months ago, because it is necessary to understand that the dynamics of hostilities cannot stop instantly , that is, it is not a discrete value, but a constant value, that is, now we are observing the highest who, well, no the culmination is one of the highest periods of combat activity and they will tend to decrease and i will know such a certain operational pause during which russia will, just like us, build up reserves and this is where it comes in. and as for the provision of equipment, well, we see how it arrives, you understand that it is impossible to transfer all

the equipment that arrives from america exclusively by airplanes, well, it's just uh, hmm, inefficient and very expensive, that is, the equipment will arrive by ships and we need two or three months to master this technique. that is, we are already talking about the first one. i am already finishing my preparation for you. it will be deployed . the helmet, that is, the second and third in order to carry out concentrated attacks, because the helmet alone does not solve this serious problem. actually, today we already saw, or rather, a couple of days ago, we saw our counterattack under kherson when we attacked enemy that has not fully established itself and this was quite a difficult problem. that is, we need to ensure superiority both in weapons and in personnel in certain directions where we will conduct such

actions three months ago. perhaps we may not succeed . about a longer period, plus let's not forget that russia will also respond in this way, we must be ready for longer hostilities, and for me, skepticism is not calculated for 5 months, er, definitely more, mr. sergey, well, despite your skepticism is still er. let me conclude again with your words. in one of the interviews , it was noted that er, the russians will in no way be able to stop the flow of weapons from the west. you said that, and let's hope that this flow will relentless, no one will really stop him and we will get what we need already this summer serhii grabskyi military expert thank you , good night, we are going on the air, we are in ukraine, there is no chance to make compromises with russia, conclude a new version of the minsk agreements, the adviser to the chairman believes of the office of the president of ukraine, mykhailo podolyak, because it will mean that russia is winning, and any even

small russian victory will lead to an increase in the conflict in the future, any minsk 3 is postponed for a year, and that this means for us many more victims and many more risks for existence of ukraine, because if russia does not lose, it will begin to stockpile weapons, prepare reserves , work on mistakes, remove generals who today work very effectively in quotes, hire young lieutenant colonels and colonels who understand how to fight and we will get a lot to cover up that the war will be in a year valentina glynykh, a political expert joins our broadcast valentina we wish you a good night good night we are talking about the fact that there is no chance in ukraine entering into compromises with russia president zelenskyi generally says that it is necessary to talk with russia from a position forces, how ready are the usa and europe for this, and now russia is putting pressure on our western partners, and how much can we

influence that this pressure is unsuccessful, well, i would like to start with the fact that today zelenskyi addressing our european partners , he pointed out absolutely correctly by asking them a simple question, to which, unfortunately, the europeans do not have an answer yet. why are they yielding to russian pressure? there was no agreement on the sixth package of sanctions, in particular there. - the question arose about the right of russians to buy real estate in the countries of the european union, well, cyprus has already raised such a question, that is, in this aspect, we can say that the russians have recovered from the first such blow of the unexpected, what am i? well, i think, because in view of the number of

politicians they have corrupted, i will do it for the number of politicians on whom they had a kompromat. i think that they generally counted on the fact that no one would give a shit, if you can say so, their language turned out to be that europe has demonstrated a sufficiently high level of unity in supporting ukraine, but now we are observing that, little by little, the pro-russian lobby is beginning to criticize it. achieve success in this counter-offensive, these are not identical things. therefore, the defendants may think that they are unable to break the trends in this way, and i do not think that they will be able to break the support of ukraine by the civilized world. here, the issue of sanctions is very important. if you mentioned the sixth package about which there is no unity among europeans, well, in particular, let's remember that these sanctions will not be applied to oil, which will be

supplied through the druzhba pipeline, and there is quite a lot of it, what do you think in general, or is it possible to do something else in a way to put pressure on france, germany, and italy, which are in the vanguard of let's say a certain pro-russian stance regarding minsk 3 regarding agreements with the russian federation and so on . but again, at the same time as these positive signals, for example , denmark and the netherlands announced that they will completely abandon russian energy sources. i just always remember merkel's words here for all her of odiousness, she had a beautiful phrase about a europe of different speeds. it seems to me that these different speeds will also have a place in the issue of the introduction of sanctions against the russian federation. the main thing is that at this speed there should be acceleration along one

vector . sanctions on the vector of support for ukraine, because in fact it is support for generally civilized novograd for some political goals, then i am afraid that similar practices can become a huge temptation for many regimes in in different parts of the globe. i think that europeans are well aware of this. that is why these inhibitions are situational. to put it this way, i would still explain it with some kind of intention, but still really certain conflicts or certain problems between national interests and the requirements of the time, in particular er, in terms of the introduction of sanctions , therefore, i think that europe will find a certain compromise. at this stage, it is possible that this sixth package will be approved with certain exceptions, but it will still be a step forward. you understand what is necessary look from the point of view of dynamics, that is, yesterday there were no restrictions at all in this area, now these restrictions are appearing, then a certain period of adaptation will come

, perhaps those countries that today are so cautious about this will adapt and will be ready to go further, and i honestly believe in this aspect , i look quite optimistically and i am practically sure that it is unlikely that the russians will be able to break through the eyes of the loudness and unanimity, from which not only europe speaks, in fact , the world is presented the position of china, which also means that it is quite encouraging when you say this, what sanctions can still be introduced, what sanctions can be strengthened so that russia would finally want to end this war and not play to the public, as it is now doing when it says that sanctions do not apply to them only strengthen its competitiveness, there are other things that can be done specifically in the near future to stop it faster, and if something strengthened the military machine in russia, then they would not have tried to get out of these sanctions so poorly, i am talking about this

since 2014, from the lightest sanctions, and they even had a detrimental effect on the russian economy, and today's sanctions are simply a killer issue , it's only in time when not this quantity will turn into quality. i believe that the next step, and this is an even more important step than just buying, should be the purchase of russian energy carriers there should be an embargo on the supply to russia of various military or dual purpose goods , that is, they can have money even from trading in their energy carriers. the main thing is that we create such conditions when they will not be able to spend this money on those goods and services that will allow them to use this machine according to your words, but can't the china you mentioned replace this market and this nomenclature, well, to a certain extent, if technically or politically, well, technically, it can to a certain extent there are measures. well,

the statistics show that china satisfies even its domestic demand for microcircuits by 20 or 30%. well, in addition, the main sales markets for china still remain the european union, which and the united states of america are the main trading the united states also remains a partner for them, that is, they are unlikely to be able to conduct their foreign policy without looking back at the position of their main trading partners, russia is a pygmy in economic terms, it is clear that china also wants to get something there , just like india. by the way, take advantage of the opportunity, but if they are put it is clear that they will choose cooperation with the civilized world and not with this world and the outlaw of the russian federation. well, just returning to the previous question , the first point is that this is not possible in any case to allow that the funds that russia will still receive from the trade in raw materials for a certain period of time cannot

be used by the russian political regime for everything that can strengthen their military machine and be used against ukraine, this is one aspect and the other aspect well, you just need to understand this a long time ago and to put an end to this discussion, sanctions will not stop russian aggression , the only thing that can stop russian aggression is the war in ukraine, it is the defeat of the russian military machine. and for this, the armed forces of ukraine must received all those weapons that are highly efficient and highly accurate, and which will allow the armed forces of ukraine to more effectively perform tasks related to the protection and restoration of the territorial integrity of the state sovereignty of ukraine . a weapon that will allow us to effectively strike at all these russian zaids who have simply committed this bloody bacchanalia and

terror on our land, we thank you now we continue with our next guest, have a good night. thank you for the opportunity to talk with valentin glynych, a political expert. the european union should introduce such sanctions against russia so that it wants to end the war in ukraine. pressure on the aggressor state must be increased, president of ukraine volodymyr said in his address to the european council. zelenskyi he cited denmark as evidence that the introduced restrictive measures are not comparable to russia's aggression against ukraine, because the latest package of sanctions is approved by 8 april 52 days have passed since then and during this time the number of attacks by putin's army and victims of these attacks has actually doubled and then as of april 8 in ukraine there were 169 children on the list of those killed by the russian occupiers as of today 243 children then as of april 8 928

educational institutions were destroyed kindergartens schools universities as of today 1888 according to information for the past day the number of russian missile strikes on ukraine is already almost 1600 russia has used more than 2,400 almost 2,500 different missiles against us against peaceful population, and then as of april 8, there were less than a thousand rockets, they used about a thousand , this is the progress of their aggression, and there should be progress in the sanctions for this aggression, too . ivanusu, the chief consultant of the national institute of strategic studies, has the opportunity to join our broadcast. congratulations, mr. ivan, it was precisely

with valentyn glykh that they discussed the issue of sanctions, and in particular, president zelenskyi also talked about it said that it is only necessary to strengthen sanctions in order to bleed the economy of russia, but the question is why, on the one hand, in russia they claim and assure the whole world that they are already engaged in import substitution there, or something or two, they have everything in order. they have a good financial, this fatty layer, so to speak but at the same time, they are ready to unblock , for example, ukrainian ports in order to remove these sanctions, the question is whether , for example, if the sanctions will only increase, china can be replaced as an option. well, the main one the nomenclature on the russian market or not well, when will these sanctions finally come? and we hope that after the sixth package there will be a seventh, maybe even an eighth, they will really do their job. you really know that in 2014,

when russia began aggression against ukraine, that is, the annexation of crimea and the fall in donbas, we analyzed in our institute, how effective sanctions can be, and then we understood that this sanctions policy is a policy of grivdov, that is , unfortunately, against such countries as russia, they will not give an immediate effect, despite the fact that in the 13th brought in the 14th year, the sanctions were, as we understand, so tough, now the sanctions are much tougher, and despite the fact that russia claims that they have import substitution and they do not bother them in fact, as they say, the counter-substitution in russia was only on paper. and now what is happening in fact, today is already the day, that is, tuesday has already started for us, neither of russia's creditors will decide whether to declare russia's default in a month, that is, for

russia, this can be a slightly nervous day in terms of what is due to the fact that the united states as part of america's sanctions policy, the russian federation was forbidden to use their currency . and this is the us dollar. let me remind you that the credit of the swimmer is dollars and must be returned in dollars, and russia now has a very significant problem. in dollars, now this right has been taken away from her, so there is a high probability that russia will default in a month. regarding, you mentioned china in this question. do you know china? it sometimes adheres more to the sanctions policy against of the russian federation than other countries of the west. finance throws out they do not really credit the purchase of even oil in russia. now we are all waiting for the

next package of sanctions, and unfortunately there are contradictions in the european union regarding the inclusion of the oil bank - these packages are no less than china. it is tougher . in this regard, in relation to russia, because due to the fact that their financial institutions do not lend oil to computers, russia cannot sell it in the volumes it dreams of, that is why, unfortunately, the sanctions are not so fast, but the economy of russia is also working, it is still heading for the abyss and you know, in this matter i will quote the report of the central bank of the russian federation, which they published on april 21, which clearly stated that the reserves of the russian federation of certain important goods remain for several months, it will take three years to restore the reserves in

this context, it is necessary to restore the reserves of three years, you also mentioned the oil barge for which we are all waiting, the european commission actually sent the eu countries the draft of this oil barge embargo and in it an exception is made for hungary, she can then receive a car for the oil pipeline friendship to what extent can this sanction affect negatively as we want on the actions of the russian federation . speaking, i expected more let's say a change in the approaches of the russian federation in the context of the fact that they can, for example, sell oil, but they will not receive the full funds, for example, how can a mechanism be made so that russia sells i received oil for example at 100%, and 90 is the 10th number in ukraine, and every day you had one

percent, that is, the next day they do not receive 89, and maybe even a little more there. they buy oil from russia, russia did not receive money from them, this is very important because we understand why this problem actually arises, because the economy of a large number of eu countries was built entirely by focusing on russian oil and, unfortunately, they cannot do it instantly like this but nonetheless yes yes yes it is clear yes we have to say goodbye i'm sorry but we have one more of yes one more speaker ivan uz the chief consultant of national strategic studies in principle the position is clear and we will continue this topic now yes exactly this topic we will continue because on the first day the european union did not succeed to approve the sixth package of sanctions against russia,

we remind you that according to this document, the eu was supposed to stop buying russian oil and oil products within the next six to eight months, the european commission prepared a draft of the sanctions package almost a month ago, however, its approval was blocked by hungary and several other eu countries, the prime minister of hungary, viktor orbán, continues to demand that ukraine be allowed to continue buying russian oil in the european union, he offered budapest a compromise to introduce a barge only on the supply of oil by sea, and an embargo on pipeline supply did not fall into this situation, hungary could still receive raw materials for several years, now the druzhba oil pipeline passing through ukrainian territory, however, on may 30 urban put forward a new demand that if ukraine blocks friendship for some reason, hungary should be allowed to buy oil and through the ports. at the moment, the opinions of the leaders of the european union regarding the prospects of the 6th sensational package are divided, so the chief diplomat is a fence and the chancellor of germany said in an off-shot that the possibility of an

agreement still remains instead of the president of the european commission yaroslav dervlyan expressed skepticism about the fact that at the current summit the problem of the pension package will be resolved. questions, bohdane, i congratulate you, i congratulate you, so we are talking about the fact that it is necessary to strengthen sanctions against russia as soon as possible, to introduce an oil barge, however, we still see that there are still disputes regarding this matter, what are your expectations for the strengthening of what sanctions can we expect in the near future, and what will happen in the end - in the end it will be with oil cargo, the discussion about the sixth package of sanctions continues, and we see very difficult negotiations at different levels, at the beginning at the level of eu member states, and now at the level of leaders indeed, the issue of the oil embargo is the key and the most difficult to solve, i

predict that a certain compromise will be found in full, unfortunately, it will not happen yet , because we see the position of hungary there, but i predict that it is not only the position of one countries , that is, there are not public positions of other e-e countries, but in the context of the solution to the solution of this issue in the european union, in particular, they offer hungary, for example, to compensate there at the level of seven hundred and seven 150 million euros. and if we have our claims regarding supply of resources to russia has taken off, there are other variations in other countries. by the way, there are many leading countries such as germany, france, italy. to assume that in 3-5 years this question will somehow automatically disappear. well, you can skip it, see the following question: different

dependence on e-e energy supply from the russian federation in different member states is the first the second, as i say, i am not sure that this is only one position of hungary in the context of the adoption of full emb argon for oil, this is the second question. i think that there are still a number of leaders of a number of countries who do not speak about it publicly, but in principle are not against it if it will be a more long-term process of transition. and i will explain why. because for too many years the state members of the european union have been seriously hooked on this needle and they are used to the fact that energy resources are quite inexpensive for them and for their national economy. therefore, now this reconfiguration can something to change the mood of the electorate and some leaders are worried about this, let's be so frank, but on the other hand, they are also the main state members of the eu,

they understand what to do next with the aggressor, and even in the energy sector it is not worth it and it is dangerous because they are looking for various opportunities to refuse it and not only from oil , but also more medium-term prospects from gas, this is also a more complex issue that needs to be understood, therefore, in relation to the sanctions policy, in addition to the sixth, preparations for the seventh selective package in the european commission directly by the departments that deal with this issue, we will see what will happen there, and with regard to hungary, well, hungary maximizes on this situation and it does not work hundreds of millions declares and about the billions that it needs to compensate and this is the position of orbán, the position of his pro-government party, which directly this is definitely not about the

ukrainian role in all these difficult situations."