but it is very harsh that the answer will be immediate and then you will think not about the deprivation of ukraine and its sovereignty, but about the fate of your own country and your own fate, so i think that this should be treated calmly, understanding that moscow has nothing left but blackmail and this blackmail will occur periodically, so to speak , for some reason it was medvedev who was chosen as the foal of all hellish things on the part of russia, well, probably because , uh, he is just nobody and they don't call him anything, uh, uh, and in moscow, he is above him they make fun of it well, in the world of to all the more well, probably in order to somehow enhance the feeling of the grotesque, perhaps he was chosen specifically for this, he said that these horsemen of the apocalypse are already on their way, preparing the issue of the

use of nuclear weapons. during this war, medvedev also said that only god can now stop the start of a nuclear war yes, you saw this interview with volodymyretskyi tv, uh, but i read uh, separate parts of it, but i still couldn't read the full text of it, but you know those pieces that i will get to know are enough to understand what it really is, well, the last thing they have left is to brandish a nuclear bomb, well, at the same time, realizing that even its tactical use will mean the end of the russian federation, well, hmm, if we talk seriously about these topics, then there is actually no other way out for the west it will be like to finally put such a bold

strong point in this story, that's why i repeat once again, i don't think that this bunch of crazy people who have gathered around putin and putin himself will be able to go so far because , well, this day x that they are talking about now -is will be the last day of their existence, the existence of russia, mr. volodymyr. and how does the west feel about this , it is interesting because well, this is madness, it is a certain tactic, a demonstration of inadequacy. understanding what they will do, suddenly it seems to me that this is also one of the results of these 100 days of this terrible aggression that the west finally stopped being afraid, that is,

earlier when propaganda in russia talked about the second most powerful army in the world when they they read and calculated how this great army would act when they said that there was really a huge amount of such weapons and such weapons, it made an impression. and when three months later this so-called second army in the world turned out to be just an army that can successfully fight only against women, against the elderly , about children, when it turned out to be an army of serial killers, rapists and looters, when it is beaten by ukrainian weapons, not even having a fraction of what its western partners have, so it could about the invincibility of this army has long since disappeared, and that is why i repeat once again that the last argument is

that nuclear weapons remain to scare the world . will remain so, let them talk about it on their propaganda channels, let them raise the spirit of this russian gang that operates on the territory of ukraine, but i think that this is not at all something that can break the course of history today, colleagues, is not actually about the ukrainian-russian war, today is about the struggle between world totalitarianism in the person of russia and china, are there a few more uh-odious regimes and democracy, and i cannot imagine that world democracy will yield to totalitarianism, so let 's objectively put an end to this struggle and

finally it will open a truly new era in international relations when er russia when er other countries that profess totalitarian ideology will simply be thrown off the historical map of the world and then finally, we will begin to build another civilized , calm, peaceful and efficient world. thank you, mr. volodymyr volodymyr gryzko, diplomat and former ukrainian minister of foreign affairs. let's move on to economic and more topics. although serhiy fursa wrote about the horsemen of the apocalypse on facebook today, he is an investment banker and experts. of economic issues, sergey, i congratulate you . good morning, you were also impressed

. this is what ordinary russians actually see as devils. this former salt he sees and the horsemen of the fopa show everything today, well, it happens. let us give your expertise to the economic affairs. we want to hear what we have and what they have in 100 days of war. well, they are under sanctions, we are in of the regime of constant fighting for 100 days , ukraine is holding on, and it is defending itself heroically, we remember that they had a plan there in three days. so, how do we manage to fight back and stand on our feet economically? which increased but not i completely understand what this means for ukrainians. look, the national bank took a radically drastic step yesterday, but it was quite logical and correct. and it is very good that the national bank

has independence and has the courage to take such steps that politicians do not like. why did we do this in the first month of the war? we have seen such a situation, a miracle. yes, when the banks keep their course , inflation can eat a quarter of this hryvnia by the end of the year, and then a person takes steps and buys the national currency. i say no. this is bad. this is pressing on the screen. let's not buy currency. and for you, we will give you an alternative : a deposit or military bonds, where the rate will be the same, which will help to stop inflation. of course, this is a step . there is not a controlled devaluation of hyperinflation and pressure on certain businesses that already have loans that are tied to the discount rate, how much can these rates really increase for people who want to bring money to bank now how much there is in the region of six yes, no

more than 10% per year, well, minus taxes there, well, pennies , how much it can grow so that it is interesting to people in the field of ideas according to the idea, the rates should go somewhere to the level of 20 + in andrii lenytskyi in us at 8: 00 in the economic block in the economic block and he said that there is also a reverse option, that is, banks can take refinancing for 25, but they can put their money in the national bank as a deposit, citizens there are somehow called differently. this procedure and this rate will be 25 - two points under 23 ie whether will there be a bank or will the bank take this money from people, the question is whether the deposit rates will increase because the bank, well, it will be easier with the national bank to take from it 25 + 2 points of this amount and put there in the national bank and 25 minus two points 23 and to

earn in this way. well, i am not an economist. as you explained. look, if you take someone for 25, the cost is 25, and you give someone 123, it looks like you do not lose 2 on the same place, so it is not very logical from the point of view of business, because you are like that in a way you lose well, they left only said that in principle the banks have enough money, that is, they will not take it from the national bank, on the contrary, they will give it to him in order to earn about 23% at the national bank. yes, and that is why the banks now have enough liquidity, they were not interested in raising deposit rates, why? yes, if this money is actually put into this, they should not make money. now the banks have an incentive to raise deposit rates, and when the national bank can also make money in this way. does not give the bank the opportunity to heat up there, it stimulates banks to raise the deposit rate

the plus rate is an incentive for the ministry of finance of ukraine to raise rates because what happened since the beginning of the year, the national bank bought hryvnias from water giants , that is, de facto, the national bank printed 120 billion uah, this is a very dangerous trend, what if it continues and the national bank says stop , let's not i alone will buy government debt, but no one else wants to, because the rate is low, and with such a step, the national bank is pushing the ministry of finance. not to see because for them, this is an increase in the cost of debt service, but here, on the one hand, it is a debt service mandate, and on the other, there is a potential hyperfunction, and the national bank is pushing the ministry of finance to incur extra costs in our country, and in order for them to raise the rate and this rate increase will create a certain distortion, that is, to more banks here, ordinary people invested in applications, and i was less forced to buy the national bank. sergey

, you said that all these processes there are er words that are called er complex devaluation inflation and will be able to eat a quarter of those hryvnias that ukrainians may have somewhere now. yes, some savings, this means that prices will rise, your forecasts. what is the rate of prices that will be better this year, the expectation is 20-25%. that is why prices will rise this year. we are expecting very high inflation. in fact, in order to curb this inflation, the national banks are taking that step, because if, for example, currency pressure continues and there will be further deep devaluation, we can remember 2015, then because of a strong devaluation of price growth was 406%. much more than we have now and here it is simply important that not only the national bank fights with this, it is possible now that the deputies finally return taxes on imports, because now imports are terribly bad,

ukrainian manufacturers cannot compete and no one pays taxes on imports, this is a disadvantage in budget and you will become the national hryvnia is really the step taken by the verkhovna rada in the first days of the war. when it canceled import taxes, it had its important importance in the first level, but now it is very important these the taxes have been returned and the mood regarding the dollar exchange rate how much longer will we have two exchange rates, the nbu exchange rate and the market exchange rate, which in fact plus or minus differ by up to 20%, so look at the two exchange rates - this is a side effect of a fixed currency, this always happens when the state when the national bank fixes the exchange rate at the same time, that is, you cannot avoid it, and from the very beginning, when you introduce a fixed rate, you know that there will be two rates, and there will be a black market rate, and of course, can the national bank now during the war, the bank should refuse a fixed

exchange rate. no, i can’t, because in reality there are too many shocks, too many risks are brought by the war, and if the national bank releases the exchange rate, it may lead to an uncontrolled devaluation, not due to economic reasons, but due to purely psychological reasons. therefore, while the national bank will see these military risks of military actions that affect the economy, the exchange rate will be fixed, and until then we will have these two exchange rates. a side effect, miley, you can't avoid it and what are the consequences of the long-term existence of two rates , that is, speculating, speculating, speculative schemes, i understand only that their number is increasing, so earnings. always when i am a sincere black market. tracks and covers, for example, card tourism was developed for a very long time, when every

day many grandmothers and aunts in western ukraine traveled to poland and back, each of them had 20 cards were placed on these cards here at one rate , there it was deducted differently on this difference, people earned now the national bank screwed this scheme that other schemes will appear, of course there will be because such a human race, especially in ukraine, just as soon as they will appear and there will be to notice when they start to put pressure on the exchange rate, they will also fight it later and cover it up again, this is a side effect of the fixed exchange rate, we will not go anywhere from it. sergey, i still have a question, please tell me about it in general, rate it investment market investment in the ukrainian enterprises of the ukrainian economy is it alive now does it exist or did it cease to exist on february 24 of course about the big mystical who will speak now no one will now glorify money so far where is the war so far i am risks uh first of all about foreign investments or there are certain domestic investments in

ukraine, if the business has resumed work, then one way or another it can even invest. because more. i've been walking around kyiv for a few minutes now. i've seen the opening of new restaurants. people are investing. people are doing repairs and so on are also investments. of course, this is an extremely low level, but it shows that there is a certain level of recovery, but in general, talking about investments during the war, well, that’s beside the point. sergiya wanted to ask you about sanctions, we are talking about wars first. sanctions against russia well, today is already the 100th day of the war. and we really wanted them to quickly take us by the throat and the entire economy of russia would collapse. how do you assess the effect of the sanctions now on the 100th day of the war? yes, but it is the last such telling news is that somewhere in russia there is a city i don't know where it is, but there is a car-building plant there and it stopped because they do

n't have bearings, and they don't have bearings because they were imported, and that's how they themselves gradually influence, and because there were stocks and even the head of the central bank of russia they talked for another month and a half because in russia, while russia is living on stocks , including warehouse stocks, these stocks should be exhausted at the end of the second at the beginning of the third quarter. that is, it is june, july, and now polish stocks should be depleted, and this should to deepen the crisis implementation, will russia's crisis be ? yes, it will not be as striking as we would like. once russia does not become, there will not be such a crisis, unfortunately , but they themselves are sitting. all are added. it is very nice news about the oiled varva. after that, shchedrik came with more pleasant news from the opec countries agreed to increase their own production and they are increasing such a figure so far. it seems insignificant and there conditionally, saudi arabia, other partner countries are increasing production by 4%. but

thus they cover 17% of russian of exports in the near future has the status of baidin's visit to saudi arabia, there may be an even greater increase yes thank you, i'm going to remind you, the city is quietly located in the leningrad region of russia, there is closer to the cherepovets and vlog, where there is on the rivet of the leningrad region, well, russians are used to living in a crisis before crisis i don't know if it is necessary for them to feel this crisis, er, serhii fursa, an investment banker, was our guest , but the embargo that mr. serhiy has already touched on with pronates we continue to talk with gennady ryabtsev an expert on energy issues gennadiy, congratulations, congratulations, well, let's try to evaluate the 100 days of war and the energy market, let's start with this very oil embargo . cannot

satisfy the actions of politicians because i analyze the events of the energy markets and not political decisions, but if we talk about what the european union could have done specifically in relation to oil raw materials and oil products, who is the fastest of all, this is all that he could do because over a long period of time the dependence of the european union on the supply of e-e energy carriers e-e was formed over a long period of time, carefully formed by the russian federation, it was from russia that for 50 years excess pipeline capacity was formed and everyone said that why is russia building another pipeline, why is another project needed and they are needed, they were

needed in order for the russian federation to be able to e-e transferring certain volumes of oil and gas transportation a-a m-m in this way to realize their own political ambitions because it is very important to whom do you sell oil and gas at a price slightly lower than uh-uh, you sell them to your neighbors, which pipe do you use better, so you pay more for transit to one or another european state? energy dependence on the russian federation, which, by the way, for some european countries is much greater than ukraine's dependence on the russian federation,

which was like that until 14 years ago, now it is an oil bargo, this is the maximum that it can squeeze out of itself and the european union is a significant blow to the economy and the russian federation and its prospects to preserve these levers of influence, including political influence on the european union, what will the effect be practically and in time, how will it spread from this embargo well, we want the embargo and everything in russia to collapse, what will it look like, serhii has already said that we want a lot, but the reality is a little different from what we want. yes, russia exports about 230 million tons of oil and more

140 million tons of oil products. europe consumes 100 million tons of russian oil. about 70 million tons of russian oil products . to the world market, those states, are there sources that could at least partially compensate for the losses that the russian federation will bear, since the federal budget of the russian federation has revenues from the activities of the oil and gas industry , taking into account service companies, taking into account all

taxes, and not just the three that putin mentioned at the time, are from 55 to 60%. the loss of a quarter of income is quite significant. although not catastrophic and not critical, because we all understand that the costs that go to the ideal expenses for salaries , pensions, scholarships, that is, the social sphere and the welfare of the population in the russian federation will suffer a little from this, but the war will continue belligerent invasive their er the mood will remain, i.e. as we wanted, the embargo will stop the war, so it won’t be, they’d better attack the anti-social embargo will not stop the war, the war will be stopped by the victory of the defense forces of ukraine over the

russian invaders, angina . the opec plus countries, which includes russia, i understand agreed to increase oil production to compensate for the drop in production in the russian federation to 648,000 barrels per day in july and to 640,800 barrels per day in august, the original plan was to produce 432,000 barrels per day in the three months to september, on the background of this news, oil prices did not change significantly, routers adds. opec will be able to increase oil production to compensate for the drop in russian production, this will affect the price of oil, such a decision hmm the russian federation exports four and seven tenths of e-e million barrels per day of oil raw materials e-e m

bargovo will limit these possibilities by taking away about two maybe a little more million barrels per day well let's let's ask you again predicts from up to three million barrels per day the actual decrease well that's the expert terroritos well maybe maybe they look at it very optimistically but anyway, plus 200,000 barrels per day is not enough to compensate for this loss of 2 million. well, it can be said that this is help for the market, but it is not compensation for the volumes that the russian federation supplied to the market and this is precisely the problem of this very

oil barge, which is that since a large number of offers are taken from the market, it means that there is a shortage of it and this shortage will be compensated by the increase in oil prices, therefore, by exporting less oil, the russian federation can receive more profit or the same money as the day yes in view of this, the agreements that can be reached between the european states, the united states of america and the largest oil exporting states are very important alternatives to alternative russian supplies in order to sign appropriate long-term supply agreements and to agree on an increase in production by amounts that will allow to

reduce prices, more precisely, oil quotations from the current 110s to at least 80 dollars in withdrawals, since russia is currently selling oil at a discount from the discount is the maximum in the entire history of the existence of all these trades, namely around $30 per barrel or 30%, actually more than 30%, and that means that then russian oil will be to sell well, let's say at prices that are comparable to the cost of extraction and the cost of transportation plus insurance, and this is where the seventh package of sanctions can come in handy, which , according to preliminary estimates, provides for a ban on the

insurance of e-e transportation of e-e russian oil in tankers, so this is exactly the effect of all these sanctions , this embargo is long enough, it is comprehensive enough, and it will definitely affect , including the volume of extraction of energy resources of the russian federation, and therefore will affect further the possibility of the russian federation to use energy carriers as an energy weapon. we still have a few minutes left. what about our ukrainian energy market is now difficult. i think that it is more difficult than it was in

the beginning. we see that so far there is supply, supply is taking place if we talk about the oil products market, it has decreased a little bit, the urgency of the issue, the urgency of the queue problems have decreased, although the price has increased significantly, however, petroleum products are already appearing on the market, in relation to natural gas, production continues in ukraine especially if we are talking about the western regions of ukraine , production has slightly decreased in the east. however, the dnipro-donets basin is still being mined . resources are still being mined, although this is not the only thing. synchronization of our system with the european genetic system of the continental european system has increased the reliability of the electricity supply, so in this questions eh well there are problems but they are smaller

so for now there are enough resources to meet the demand but the government will have to work very hard to prepare for of the heating season, which will be the most difficult in the recent history of ukraine, thank you for your professional comments and forecasts gennadiy ryabtsev, an energy market expert, the broadcast will continue