e-e lay these 300 km between poland and lithuania and ukraine in order to be able to move along the wide railway e-e our grain trucks - it was denys marchuk about the export of ukrainian food during the war and today the european court of justice of the european union approved the sixth package of sanctions against russia in which there is a partial embargo on russian oil, this is the hundredth day of russia's war against ukraine, and we should end the issue with this. congratulations, friends, vitaly portnikov and we continue the broadcast of the espresso tv channel, the hundredth day of the war that russia started against ukraine on february 24 in 2022, 100 days are so symbolic,

one could say a turning point. this is how the history of mankind looks in general. they always talk about 100 days with some special priority. in 100 days, you can win and lose. where did this concept come from? we know from the 100 days of the restoration of napoleon bonaparte on the french throne that what started as trump ended in collapse, therefore it is very important to always look closely at any 100 days in a situation that is both in war and in the political and public life of any country that is why 100 days are given by the president and the prime minister, and we will talk about 100 days of this war. where are we now? what do we see now in this situation that is developing in the world in

the state at the front? the first thing that can be said with absolute certainty is that by and large the main idea of ​​vladimir putin, the idea of ​​blitzkrieg, it did not work out , we have talked about it many times, it is not a sin to say it again, because it is still a very important moment in this whole story, we understand what vladimir putin wanted and by the way, we understand what he didn't want, he didn't want, it's not surprising that the war looks sincere, and we can see it, and i don't know where such confidence comes from. it's hard to

understand that the war won't last long, and that's why he called it a special military operation. putin is not a military leader. putin is a person who acts in the logic of these special operations. therefore, it was all absolutely logical, absolutely simple, as you understand, in a few days, to capture kyiv, create a puppet government, and after that this government will fulfill the wishes of the kremlin. in this very situation, it will be possible to capture the entire territory of the donetsk luhansk oblasts is possible to hold a referendum on their accession to

russia, increase russia by two oblasts, maybe more puppets, you government will lead a kind of truncated ukraine, this is the scheme of the vichy state created by hitler after the occupation of france, when the main part of the territory of france was occupied by hitler, and on a small territory was created by a puppet or vichy state with the capital of an embroidered resort town and this french state . by the way, after the occupation of the main part of the territory france was recognized by all the other states of the world, for many years they supported it diplomatically, no one knows how long such a pseudo-state would have existed if it were not for the defeat of the nazis in the second

world war, when they could no longer impose their idea of ​​statehood and international law on other countries. i already said that this situation did not end with anything. and then everything turned into a war , a real war began, and that's where it started. by the way, all these russian laws that do not allow you to call a war a war, and which provide for a 15-year term imprisonment for the so-called discrediting of the armed forces. of course, all this was not planned at the first stage. we keep talking about the fact that putin took advantage of this situation in order to turn his state into a nazi state in order to destroy everyone who resists his aggressive actions, so but imagine that putin's plans have been implemented that yanukovych is in kyiv on february 28 that

donetsk and luhansk are announcing their accession to russia on march 1 that there is no war the ukrainian state destroyed the occupiers' parade in kyiv of course not it would be necessary to prohibit someone from calling a war a war because there was no war, all wars are so big, they start exactly when the consequences of certain actions are not calculated, every war begins with a local conflict and ends with this kind of slide to the great war . and by the way, this slide continues because that what

today looks like a local conflict in the post- soviet space is simply a very large conflict on large territories tomorrow if, say , russia fulfills its promise and strikes so-called decision-making centers, only not in ukraine, but on the territory of nato countries. of course, all this will then turn into a great war, and then what is happening now in ukraine, these 100 days will simply be perceived as such a prelude to a great war between many states with unpredictable consequences for humanity and our time with you will simply be forgotten in the history of the third world war as in the history of the second world war for the street of the first week of polish resistance they are important for the poles but not for the world other battles are important for the world

other dates other events less, however, i still do not see signs that vladimir putin is gravitating to such a big war rather no rather he is gravitating to return the war to a state of special operations because it is in special operations that putin, a pet of the state security committee of the soviet union, feels like a fish in the water, and when it comes to special operations and about wars, of course, he does not feel so comfortable here anymore, plus wars lead to an increase in the sanctions flywheel, which putin absolutely does not need today, plus they do not give him the opportunity to destabilize the enemy with the help of internal tools, which the russians have always done, which is not so bad. if we talk about ukrainian

national states, it means that now all these attempts will be carried out, they are already being carried out in parallel with the military ones. - is to drag the situation without reaching the level of a major military confrontation, but by weakening the enemy, the first action of the russians was an obvious gross mistake precisely because they were calculated for a blitzkrieg and not for a war, i mean when at the same time kharkiv, donetsk, and luhansk were stormed from the north, the south, of course, the russian military simply did not have such a number of opportunities, when it

became absolutely obvious that the blitzkrieg turned into a war and contradicted itself, the russians concentrated most of their forces on those they had is in the donetsk direction, this is done for obvious reasons, the occupation of the luhansk donetsk regions within their administrative borders in order to then join these territories to the russian federation, presumably with kherson zaporozhye regions of ukraine, which is also in the plan of this occupation, and then to put ukraine in the international community in the face of the fact that fighting on these territories, ukraine is fighting on the territory of the russian federation, which naturally creates a new glass of threats, the same as i from crimea. of course, you can not pay attention to all these decisions of the russian

federation, if they happen. when they happen, they will be as insignificant, but it is absolutely obvious that psychologically they will put pressure even on us as much as on our western allies this is the first, the second moment is to blackmail the world with new crises, now putin has invented the possibility of this blackmail, this grain is the world hunger crisis, and it is personally very difficult for me to fully understand from a pure statistical point of view why the absence of ukrainian grain on the world markets should lead to global hunger when it grain was a significant but not decisive part

of the food situation in the world, is russia deliberately exaggerating this danger in what way ? of course, this is a danger and ukraine recognizes that in the country, you just need to sell this grain to get money in conditions when we have a catastrophic lack of funds in the state budget but of course when russia recognizes the danger of famine and at the same time is not going to unblock ukrainian ports, then the search for new ways of delivering ukrainian grain begins and then new political prospects open up for russia in any situation if grain is less, one can hope for some kind of crisis in the association in third world countries, although i repeat again, it is not very clear to me why exactly the lack

of ukrainian grain should lead to such the global food crisis, the second point, which is also very important, what will happen if the west finds, with the help of russia, a tool to unblock the supply of ukrainian grain, one of such tools we already see is the idea that belarus will pass ukrainian grain through its railways to the baltic ports in exchange for unblocking sanctions against belarus itself is a transition to such a hybrid war, which in principle was used by russia since 2014, on the one hand, russian military operations in donbas continue the troops are trying to occupy as much of the territory of ukraine as possible, on the other hand, potash fertilizers from

belarus, and maybe from russia, enter the world market in exchange for the fact that russia itself allows ukraine to trade its grain through the mediation of its own infrastructure, because in belarusian infrastructure is essentially a branch of infrastructure of the russian federation, okay, this will mean that russia gets the opportunity to circumvent world sanctions with the help of this belarusian window, in principle , again, the model has been tried since 2014, which acted quite effectively and then, by the way, this model can be used in other economic sectors all the time exchanging, let’s say, some important

things for russia for some kind of agreement with these or other actions russia knows how to blackmail knows how to find reasons for blackmail knows how to find real chances to use those or other possibilities of their own in order to overcome these difficulties that are created for his regime with the aim of destroying it, the third point is also very important, which is probably also created with the help of russian propaganda the illusion that russia can quickly collapse into the information space, all the time there are reports about the poor health of president vladimir putin, that's all he is, one operation, the second, the third, people have such an

idea that eventually everything will end soon, then he just has to die relax, russia itself will soon collapse, ukraine will be strong, russia will be weak, and of course, with the help of military equipment supplied by the west, ukraine will be able to easily and without particular problems recapture its territory, but there is one an important moment russia, which had enough modern equipment and modern troops, could not occupy our territories that we defended, now the russians are guarding these territories that they captured with military equipment, there may be a certain pality when we receive everything that the west promises us , how obvious is it, i'm just i'm not a military expert. i think each of you that we will

easily recapture such territories is the absolutely right-wing president of ukraine who says that he will not release the occupied territories until modern equipment will not arrive in order not to be exposed to large casualties among the ukrainian military, but at the same time - this is such a dialectic situation, it allows the russians to create time for themselves in order to strengthen themselves in the occupied territories and go further as far as they can go. you saw that they are not doing as well as they wanted, but so far it is absolutely accurate that the figure given by the president of ukraine is 20% of the ukrainian territory is occupied, which of course is significantly different from the figure that was on the moment of the russian invasion on february 24, 2022 and allows us to say that in these 100 days

vladimir putin went from blitzkrieg to salami tactics, now the following question arises. will be able to fight with us because it will not have the strength to, uh, continue military operations in order to increase the technical potential, russia also does not carry out mobilization there clearly, is it clear that there is human potential limited yes, i believe that there may come a certain moment when it becomes clear that military actions cannot continue, this is always the case in such protracted conflicts, we do not know after how long, in 100 days, in 200 days, in 300 days, it is difficult to say

when we will see such a situation again, but for this you need to be a military expert, sit down with each other, copy a piece of paper, where will the russian military human potential be, here is the ukrainian military potential, see how they exhaust its collision and where is that moment when it is clear that both countries cannot fight what they have destroyed from a military point of view and then we can give the correct answer to this question purely mathematically, although it is obvious that it will be disappointing also for this left sheet of paper in ukrainian, but even if you and i understand this simple the truth, we need to understand something else. and will such a war end at the negotiating table, we see that the president of ukraine volodymyr zelensky hopes for this, he keeps saying

that negotiations cannot start when the ukrainian the territory will be liberated there, at least as zelensky says on the line of february 24, 2022, again, i do not really imagine that the ukrainian troops stop on this line, the russian troops agree with this, it is on this line that i can imagine that there may be some other lines of stopping the parties well, let's say there are the administrative borders of the donetsk luhansk regions for the russians, the state border of ukraine for us, but you already know that subjective opinions, they have nothing to do with me, we are talking about the fact that the military simply stops the military the president of the united states, joseph biden, says that weapons are being supplied to ukraine so that it takes a stronger position during the negotiations. well, that's also a good idea, but what will happen

if there are no negotiations? the phase of the war between ukraine and russia in 2014. it ended with the minsk agreements. the presidents met and signed these agreements with their participation. perhaps now it will be possible to sign some kind of peace agreement, but it is more profitable for us, not the kind signed in minsk, which will not foresee any autonomous status of donbas there, that well, it doesn't even matter what we hope for during such negotiations. the main thing is that they will familiarize the peace. and what will happen if, in principle, there will be no customs work, if vladimir putin will not consider it is necessary to sign any peace agreement with ukraine. well, a special military operation or it is announced that it has achieved its

goals is terminated, but normal relations with ukraine are not restored or it is said that a break is being made in a special military operation, let's say, in order to ensure normal conditions for holding a referendum in the donetsk luhansk so-called people's republics to join the russian federation well, there may be many devices to stop military actions but at the same time, do not announce that there are agreements between the countries although i do not see much sense in these agreements, it is just a stoppage of hostilities, let's say a stoppage of infantry and tank forces, but missile attacks on the infrastructure continue, we see that they are now also they will continue on the territory of the country, and it will be absolutely clear that russia does not see any settlement of the situation, that its conditions

are known, that ukraine must recognize the russian status of crimea, donbas, announce that it is not joining nato, demilitarization, denazification, i want to remind you that in all these 100 days war, russian demands on ukraine have not changed, not at all. we were all the time there looking for any possible hints that these conditions have changed. so you see, medinsky said such a list, but did not mention it. and lavrov said such a list did not mention this, but in fact the whole strange and meaningless set of demands, which in essence justifies the russian readiness to fight in the future and to prove its right to such demands with the help of force, it remains, this may also be the situation at the time of the end of active hostilities the phase is over, but we are in a situation of uncertainty. should

we abolish martial law? the question is how long can we live in it, provided there are no active hostilities? should we continue or allow it? the departure of men abroad in such a situation, or to continue detaining people within the borders of the country without obvious mobilization, the question of whether to return to people who left for ukraine in such a situation, where will they return to, because we are now speaking again not for today, but for the day when there may still be destroyed, what are the new cities, what are the infrastructural objects of the house, or should such families stay abroad or return to their

husbands, or, on the contrary, should the men leave for their families, if they settled somehow in european countries, and here, let's say, there is no question of whether to invest in such an economy in which there are no security guarantees yet. should we wait when these guarantees in the form of peace agreements appear and it will at least be clear which territory is safe? i mean geographically in general for investment, the fourth question, the fifth question, and if there is no such investment, how will the country's economy develop and how will it provide jobs in the absence of development prospects, a

good question, and when we ask these questions they are not military, we are moving into the plane in which vladimir putin feels, as i said, like a fish in water, into the plane of a special operation. i think that it has already begun, seriously, because we see next to the war that continues, that has not ended, the results of which you we absolutely do not know and do not imagine we do not know the answer to any of the questions in what form the state sovereignty of ukraine will be preserved in what borders with what number of citizens with what economic potential with what security guarantees there is no answer

but in ukrainian society, i think that you have noticed already in these 100 days, such a relaxation has begun, which can create the illusion that we are living no longer just in the expected victory, but after the victory, and we need to think about how to live after the victory , that is, how to get power after the victory and national unity, which so i would say that she changed the attitude towards us in the west, which became an inspiration in the west for the first time during the week of the war, as they saw that the entire ukrainian political class and supporters of various political forces, from populists to national democrats and even some former pro-russian politicians who have changed their idea of ​​life together against this influx are those who were

dreamers returning to realism that those who warned about the danger of war in the case of certain electoral decisions of ukrainian citizens are not reproached for this by their compatriots but together with them defend the motherland that those who were wrong in his attitude to russia and was such an ambassador of the russian world, he speaks out loud about his mistakes and enlists in the territorial defense, now all this is practically gone and it is terrible because it shows the state in which ukrainian society will be after the end of the hostilities and how russia will be able to use this state of war, the post-war state for a new blow to our state, an already internal

blow, a blow that may be even more significant for the exhausted war of the ukrainian state than the war itself. i want to remind you of the eternal the tradition of ukrainian statehood, the amplitude from the uprising to the decline, the uprising, the disappointment, the uprising, the collapse, the enthusiasm, the hope for quick changes, the disappointment, as a result, in the recent history of ukraine, it was so after each of the maidans, in fact, on the verge of complete degradation of state institutions, the uprising of a passionate part of society kept the state

from final collapse, so that later electoral decisions directed the ukrainian state to correct this wrong line and not to lead to a new collapse, this can also happen after the war, because war is also a national impulse of course, the best moment in our history was if we managed to prevent war at all, but that's not all in our war, war is already a war - it's huge the rush of the national spirit, which usually decreases with each new day of the continuation of such and such local hostilities, and in russia it is also understood, they understand that the longer it will continue