ends within six months, that is, by six months , ukraine will quickly restore up to 3.5 million jobs, and the total volume of labor market decline will be from 8 to 10%. if the war continues for six months and will continue further, ukraine is in danger of losing up to 7 million jobs, which is practically half, well, a little less than half of the total labor market, that is, in reality, the situation is quite difficult, and we see in reality that today the total volume of demand for e -e vacancies are much larger than in fact, the proposal is that today we have 11 million forcibly mixed people who have definitely lost their incomes, we have today about five and a half million refugees who today definitely left the labor market of ukraine, so by the way, uh,

we understand what uh the majority of our pensioners remain here. and actually, the entire burden of pension financing today is actually the state budget - $5 billion every month, this is the actual deficit of the ukrainian budget, based on the fact that today practically only protected articles and articles related to security and defense, therefore it is extremely important today already today to resolve the issue of the recovery of the economy of ukraine, the recovery of production , the creation of new jobs, at least in those enterprises that provoked in the western region of ukraine. so, in reality, we have a lot waiting for us serious questions about the restoration of the economic potential at the end of the war, serhiy, well, look , my dear, we are all getting poorer this year, this is a fact, yes, and this is a fact. i think everyone who works very

there are few companies where wages are not reduced, er, often the statistics provided by the national bank say that mainly the incomes of even working people who do not lose their jobs are reduced by 10 to 50%. therefore, incomes will fall this year. well, let's compare to last year. we will all earn much less and prices will be much higher. therefore, this year we will all be poorer and the situation will really get worse. how long will the war last and what format will it be, we can see it on the example of the same lviv or kyiv the first shock in lviv takes 2-3 weeks, business starts to work, small and medium-sized business starts to work, two months pass, yes, rockets fly by, but if you drink on the rynok square, there is alpha jazz, the same in kyiv, yes, the first months of the shock , now recovery, we even see the opening of new restaurants and so on, because on the one hand, we see the situation that we will all

be much poorer this year than we were last year, and it is simply impossible to avoid this situation, and on the other hand, the recovery is going like me like me much better than we could have expected two months ago, so it certainly allows us to remain optimistic, again when we see the statistics of the return of people, for example, the same privatbank says that already 40% of customers. ukraine has already returned, we can see the statistics of how people go to the shopping center there , the pre-war level has almost been restored, not completely, but almost answers. therefore, this is part of the people, you know, i came to think. one thing is when a person earns money there 100,000, did she lose part of her income there, and we have many people who already lived there on minimal income now, if there will be closer to the fall, gas devaluation of the income that was. well, won't there be a crisis in us when people just there won't be

anything to eat and won't there be a new wave of emigration already there with the aim of simply earning a living er again this year we will all become poorer that's what i said to him yes i don't think we are in danger of starvation or so there is a certain social level, it will be preserved, especially now it is necessary to take into account that mainly the private sector suffers now, because the state still keeps most of the jobs and does not reduce wages so radically. it helps to hold on when you talk about those people who are poor in ukraine, usually 90% - these were people who depended on the state in one way or another. that's why this will make it easier, now the private sector is suffering, which, again, a lot of people had certain reserves, and i n- specifically, yes, of course, while the fat man loses weight, and so on, and so on, but we are now recovering quite briskly, despite the the fact that we will all die later this year is

completely unquestionable, inflation this year will be very high, that is, incomes will fall and prices will rise, this will all happen, and then it depends on how quickly the war will end, if the reconstruction of ukraine begins quickly, the drivers of the recovery of the ukrainian economy after the end of the war there will already be two factors, the first is european integration, the second is the plan for the recovery of ukraine, the money of the european union, which will mainly be directed to the reconstruction of the ukrainian infrastructure, as soon as this process begins, this will create a lot of jobs, it's good if you can pour money into the economy of ukraine, and until then we have, yes, we have an economic crisis. but again, the biggest shock has already passed. indeed, we will feel poverty here when the reserves are depleted, certain people have, but this it is simply impossible to avoid this this year, and our european integration will directly depend on the fact that we will want to opaquely spend some parts of it in the reconstruction, mr. oleg, lives your

forecasts regarding prices and hryvnias, serhiy fursa already said that it depreciates to what extent well, there is some limit to what we will have until the fall what is the dollar exchange rate and what are the prices ? gas for the population will remain unchanged at 6.99, then in reality it is necessary to understand that the consumer basket has already today er somewhere around 30% of growth, i think it will continue to grow, although i think there will be a certain er slowing of this process in our country uh in the summer, as a rule, deflationary processes. this year, i think there will simply be a slowdown er, well, massive quantities will begin to

arrive now er, um, vegetables from open ground in our territory, people have planted quite well, er , that is, ukrainians always solve their food problems on their own, they are used to such things that's why i think that in the summer we won't have a big increase in the value of the consumer basket, it will start more somewhere in september, october, uh, well, but i expect somewhere around 35-40% growth in the consumer basket, but inflation will really be at the level of 20-25%, this is the number announced by the national bank of ukraine. as for the goal, when we talk about the dollar exchange rate, we must understand that the national bank of ukraine has unprecedentedly raised the refinancing rate to 25%. that is, on the account, he thinks that in this way he will tie up the cash supply and this will slow down the inflationary processes, eh, at the same time, well, so far we see the exchange rate, it has not been released, eh,

critical imports are being paid for, eh, well, they think they are melting like snow on sunki currency reserves of ukraine how much there is 9 billion in three months national bank i spent it, therefore, as soon as the ports will be opened quickly, how will export receipts of currency go, then the hands of the national bank will definitely be freed and it will be able to carry out more active interventions in order to stabilize the exchange rate. i do not think that the exchange rate will be extremely high. i think that it will be somewhere moving in ukraine 30-35 hryvnias is what we have now at least in the near future and after the opening of e-e export receipts e-e we will see how the national bank will remove the e-e margin of this non-cash cash exchange rate and probably such in this way, the exchange rate will be reinforced within the limits of those figures due to the interventions of the national bank

, so i do not think that the exchange rate will be 40 and it will definitely not be somewhere around 30-35 according to my estimates. thank you , but penzen economist serhiy fursa, an investment banker, were our guests in this part on the air , the economic topic was something that directly concerns each of us. didn't believe that russia would invade ukraine and that's why the united states of america declassified the data, because no one believed that russia was going, so to speak, the leadership there, we remember the last days very well, yes . say may we didn't eat kebabs the president of lithuania grain from ukraine cannot go through belarus this is an important story because the russians

, together with the belarusians, tried to implement such a regime well, the clear position of the president of lithuania gitanas on the seat let's first look at the position of ukraine says the president of lithuania, i want to say that it is necessary to organize the entire infrastructure , it is necessary to organize the movement so that fertilizers move from the territory of ukraine through belarus to the baltic countries , will it not happen that behind this established infrastructure at some stage of the war, military equipment will move in the opposite direction, according to him president, but under lukashenko he made it clear that he supports russian military aggression, and therefore there can be no question of the transportation of goods through this country in addition to that belarus plans to increase the size of the army to 80,000, that's twice. and we will talk about it with the people's deputies of ukraine. andriy illenko is already with us. andriy, we congratulate you. good day and volodymyr aryev

, volodymyr, and good health to you. glory to ukraine , gentlemen. that it will be implemented in one way or another visa regime from russia so that visas are issued by name in the number in our country, so to speak, the people responsible for this direction do not decide your vision, i have a question. in this context, who will issue visas , because there are no diplomatic relations between ukraine and russia, there are no corresponding consular relations, so the consulate is what kind of consular issues does ukraine in russia solve in general, including the issuance of visas, and it can’t work? so it’s either

to entrust it to some consulate located in the territory of third countries. i think that here it will be difficult to decide in which country it will be possible do it definitely shouldn't be belarus, for example, and the second option is uh, as it happens in cases where there are no consular uh, diplomatic relations between the states, then uh, the party chosen uh, with the consent of both states, performs the role mediator in diplomatic issues, currently there is no such third party between russia and ukraine in ukraine, but the very idea that russian citizens

of on the one hand, it's good, but on the other hand, it's not on time because a-a i believe that now in general the question of access of russian citizens should be decided purely on an individual basis and a temporary ban at least for the duration of hostilities . the travel of russian citizens, except for the exceptions that the joint security service of ukraine and the state border service can draw should operate for a long time , i agree with you. to her there were a lot of different questions. well, unfortunately, i do not have counterintelligence information, but in

any case, there is a certain case. she went there , she went here, and she is a citizen of russia. i think it's just disrespect for ukraine, and in general, regarding the visa regime. i just want to remind you that freedom demanded the introduction of a visa regime long before the 14th year. that is, we believed that even then it was necessary to introduce a visa regime even before the beginning of the russian aggression, which began in the 14th year, then we were not, let's say, supported by the majority of the political forces of the time in this regard, and after the 14th year, this issue became, in my opinion, very old- fashioned and, unfortunately, it was not resolved in the same way, a visa regime was not introduced with this, although there was already full-fledged russian aggression at the time, and now i

believe that even this issue has essentially become overripe, because i agree that we no longer have diplomatic relations with russia, there is a full-scale war going on, what about visa regimes in other words, we can only talk about a closed border. that is , in general, in principle, i think that there is nothing for the citizens of the aggressor country to do, for example , israel has a border with the same syria, for example, with chilivan, it is closed. that is, in principle , a citizen of syria will not get there to israel in no way and in principle and vice versa, if there is a need, there will be a need there, for example, some citizen of the russian federation is there for some reason due to considerations of ukrainian interests, so that he ends up on our territory. well, there will be some special procedure there the security service of ukraine will give permission, the border guards will let them through. in general, what kind of visa regime can we talk about, there can be no visas, and in general, any border crossings? i think that in the long run, at least while russia is waging

war against us . well, what are we talking about in general? that is, it is a matter of a long-term perspective, ideally, in general , several dozen new independent states will emerge in the place of russia, and we will already then decide what kind of regime we should have with any of them, for example with the republic of kuban. maybe one day we will have a visa-free regime with the republic of belgorod, and already there, for example, with buryatia , we will probably have a visa regime, well, of course, i would like that, but in any case, i will tell you so, what kind of visa regime and who will issue visas that we will have ukrainian consulates and embassies in russia and vice versa, well, that's it for now. it seems to me that history itself has already decided the issue, that is, in principle, we should have since as long as muscovy exists, as long as it exists, the empire is a closed border and there in ideally, the border is closed, but de facto we see that during the next phase of large-scale russian

intervention, which is accompanied by ethnic cleansing, facts of genocide, and so on . if the person there is female, then any citizen of russia who is registered with the fsb or in the main directorate of the general staff, which is known as the main directorate of intelligence and so on, can enter with the same success they can correct that there are some of their own secret spy networks here to get along , volodymyr, something so strange happened that in our country they took and did not cover, for example, the border for the same women who are citizens of russia and did not deport them who are present in ukraine, well, this is actually the issue of the security service of ukraine, because since the 14th year,

it has been extremely difficult for citizens of the russian federation to enter ukraine, and the absolute majority, the vast majority, were filtered, now the filtering must be complete, and only by special under the signature of the head of the security service of ukraine, who assumes responsibility for the admission of this or that citizen of the russian federation, it is necessary to make a decision on the possibility of crossing the state border for holders of a russian passport, this may be excluded, in particular, for those who -he has er-e ukrainian visa for er-e residence, i can give examples and in particular lawyers and linovikov a, who in ukrainian form now protects ukraine er-e and er-e soldiers of the

battalion of the chechen battalion named after shih mansura who have russian passports but are fighting on the side, that is, it is necessary to clearly understand who is currently on the side of ukraine and review, including, the issued residence permits in ukraine for citizens of the russian federation, especially for those persons who theoretically can act on the benefit of the aggressor country, ah, everything is now in the hands of the security services of ukraine, in particular, er, then the question about ovsyanikova, who gave permission for the crossing, and about other people, er, who are now trying to drag into ukraine as if in the clutches of good russians, well, among good russians, even the largest number of good fsb officers, because they are prepared and

undercover. well, you yourself understand that it is best for an agent to act under the cover of anti-putin history. therefore, it is a question of the effectiveness of the special services so that they work now not against the opposition. how did they start again? these are the movements, and what do you mean by the movements against the opposition? volodymyr, please elaborate. well, i must say that we will now receive many signals that, in particular, the security service of ukraine in for example, in the khmelnytskyi region, activists, in particular, of the opposition political forces in kamianets-podilskyi, are being summoned. this story was and is a warning that

it is very dangerous to like or pass on some things critical of the government in social networks, and so on, that is, instead of focusing on the activity of anti-ukrainian elements of russian origin or ukrainian origin, they use their power to fight against patriotic ukrainians, but against those who, due to various circumstances, are critical of of the current government, in fact, ukraine cannot become russia. it must be anti-russia, and then only if ukraine is anti-russia, it will be able to defeat the great russia in terms of size and power, which actually turned out to be a soap bubble. but if we become such a country, then we are a contradiction in terms. well, i would like to ask mr.

andriy ilyenka, yes, regarding this moment, there is a feeling that some kind of internal regime of tightening the nuts is beginning. of the information field, we saw what happened, in particular, it is about the exclusion of three ukrainian tv channels from the t2 network. but maybe this does not only apply to the information field, maybe there are some additional signals that mr. ariev just spoke about, you know. i think that the only and generally correct way out of this situation ah, and the only correct line of behavior, which is, in principle, a guarantee, including the survival of ukraine, is during a full-scale war, to have a clear position that we have nothing but this enemy - this is russia - this is muscovy and all internal

disputes, internal political issues, they must be postponed because today it is simply dangerous. and really, now i believe that if we are talking about the activities of the same security service, then we must concentrate on the fight against pro-moscow e-e about the moscow agents , we must concentrate on the fight against well, by those who, well , openly or secretly work for the interests of the enemy, uh, that is, in my uh, from my point of view, it is certainly wrong if there are any abuses in this direction and it is necessary to look at it from this point of view that is, today we have one enemy, this enemy is very strong and this enemy is very insidious. and by the way, he also very effectively uses any troublemakers inside ukraine in order to strengthen

his position, and he does it very often. trends that may even objectively exist in ukrainian society, but their strengthening during the war clearly does not play into the common ukrainian goal, therefore, in this situation, it is worth absolutely everyone today and the government and the opposition should concentrate on the fight against the common enemy and any actions that will go towards this fight are positive actions, this is a contribution to the common victory, any actions that will go to the internal discord, to clarify the relationship there, or to fight using some administrative resu, all this is normal it's wrong and it shouldn't be like that. well, here a very fine line prevails because, for example, the story of the unspectacular so when everyone started criticizing the government for this initiative to give him citizenship, well, that also means internal quarrels, but don't talk about these toxic moments then come to the osyanists, uh, oleksiy danilov commented on the story with oleksandr nevzorov, he says that the former member of the state duma and journalists nevzorov, as of

today, yesterday, he said that he has not yet received the citizenship of ukraine. well, perhaps the demonstrative position of society in this regard has influenced e zelenskyi said that nevzorov wanted to lose his russian citizenship, supported ukraine, and the president expressed the opinion that it is necessary to shake russia in any way and that people who advocate ukraine this is also a weapon. but is this a reason to grant ukrainian citizenship? how about a language test? well, i think that then they can seriously consider it. i think it ’s easy, mr. aria . no one is still a model. and these are the people who contributed to strengthening the dead of putinism, racism in er, russian fascism , racism in this country, therefore, even if they have

seen through, that is the maximum. what can they claim, in particular, er, those who come here, it is so that they do not come or just there moved away from putinism in order not to be involved in being accused during the upcoming tribunal on russian fascism ah-ah i don't understand the meaning of why them well more precisely i understand but i again we said eh about criticism let's be eh really, as in european countries, criticism should be weighted and objective without assumptions, and it should not be, but it should not cross the line of opening an internal war between political forces, this is the most important moment, that is, it is wise to find a golden mean but things like giving

citizenships that are invisible cannot er remain er unnoticed because on the one hand there they are er who advocates for the granting of this citizenship says that information warfare is effective but on the other hand the first moment er is enough an insulting step towards our closest friends of lithuania, which a-a considers nevzorov an enemy of its state, and secondly, why do they not give ukrainian citizenship to the same fighters of the ukrainian e-e chechen battalion named after sheik mansura, who defended ukraine in 2013 a-a and not only that, they are also included in the lists, er, yes the so-called sanctions lists of the nsdc, but at the same time they speed up the citizenship procedure of an unspectacular er, who er, against ichkeria e fought being an er,

information wire and you know what moment i am still interested in, well, unfortunately, the time of our broadcast is inexorably coming to an end, but right now i am most interested i am interested in the moment regarding the deprivation of ukrainian citizenship and, accordingly, i would like to ask mr. and lenk about it regarding the deprivation of citizenship, what exactly do you ukrainian people's deputies mean by this story because we understand that a lot of collaborators also have ukrainian passports. well, i think that we should definitely deprive people of their citizenship who collaborated with the occupiers, those who worked for the occupiers, and those who work for the occupiers . for example, latvia and estonia, which since the 90s have had such a concept as the passport of a non- citizen. i think that those people who, well, they do not

consider ukraine their homeland, they do not consider it to be loyal citizens of ukraine, but at the same time, for example, they did not commit any criminal crimes, but at the same time, they are absolutely not a part of ukrainian society, which is deliberately harming there, and so on. it is possible that this procedure would be quite adequate for ukrainian realities. i believe that, in principle, we have this direction struggle with collaboration, he sags quite a lot because well, i think that, for example , these are all the deputies of the pzj, for example, who continue to go to the parliament today. well, i think that this is a disgrace, that is, they should at least be removed from political life, and in principle they should be under investigation for their anti-state activities, those who went there to russia already during the war, those who conducted anti-ukrainian activities since the 14th year, that there should be an investigation regarding their financing regarding their subversive actions and so on regarding their contacts and

connections. i think there are a lot of interesting things and these things, well, they should be, but we see today that the occupiers are coming to some territory and immediately who we see among those who start with them enter into collaboration, these are representatives of moscow parties, first of all, in the psg and these are representatives of the moscow patriarchate, these are the two main groups on which the occupiers in our entire territories rely. with few exceptions, they will simply be a little frightened, but in general they will come to this situation, they will save their capitals, and they will save their political influence, then well, we will go round again, that is, we need to finish with this thank you, gentlemen, for participating in our broadcast andriyenko and volodymyr aryev, people's deputies of ukraine thank you thank you for supporting the ukrainian view of the world