the prospects and plans of the russian federation to seize not only our eastern and southern borders are still taking place, and belarus plans to increase the number of its army to 80,000, and volyn from belarus may enter enemy territory , the ministry of internal affairs reported the other day well , uh, in belarus itself these days, military exercises are going on, missile complexes are being deployed , all this information should in no way reassure us , pacify the ukrainian capital, in particular, keep in tune with us, contact us now serhiy rakhmaninov, people's deputy, member of the verkhovna rada committee on national security, defense intelligence, welcome, mr. sergey and pavlo usov, belarusian political scientist, head of the center for political analysis and forecasts, welcome, mr. pavla, glory to ukraine so, lukashenko is going to almost double the number of his troops from

45,000 to 80,000, yes, on the one hand, we hear soothing voices that we will be there, don't worry , but we already know what we are doing, we didn't worry until february 24, and we understand that belarus was used as a military bridgehead, when i now hear reassuring voices that everything will be fine, i don't want to or i already remember how everyone ate barbecue together on the may holidays. so this is not a joke, the story is very serious, especially considering the fact that the enemy is concentrating there and the missile power dear mr. unso share the operational information that you have regarding the placement of combat and missile forces of the enemy on the territory of belarus.

certainty that belarus will not be used in some way as it has already been used in military operations and aggression, this fact will make ukraine easier to consider, on the other hand, to consider the votes on increasing the number of military personnel in the belarusian army. well, not with big ones sound calm that from the side of ukraine and the regiment from the side of ukrainian intelligence i will say so that at the moment lukashenka does not have e maksim persh for all financial how will he increase the speed of the belarusian army of which the first appears to eh troops eh troops are not professional with a lot 90% of these troops are emergency services that are engaged in the belarusian e-e troops because of the fact that from the bolshoi far the food is e-e as it was for me to go , the soviet troops do not have enough sufficient ammunition, there is no maximum training of such

a large number of e-e military er, this can be matthew exclusively, er, such a psychological factor. when in fact lukashenko sets out to create such a troop, he can definitely expand the contingent of the so-called professional trained troop - this is the service of the special forces of special operations on at the moment, i don’t have a rock of 15,000, but only half of them are contractors, the main part is the terminovschiki, so he will create a strong, equipped, prepared strike group with such a strike group , or how to change the course of military withdrawal and processes in ukraine, as well as the overall pain of some kind a serious threat to ukraine from the full force of the dumb what so in certain tactical operations eh together with the russian

military belarusian troops could and maxim o will be used but still a tactical moment passed on my key word together with the russian military and we understand that the russians are now concentrating additional battalion tactical groups in the bryansk region, they are rahmanin, how do you see the opening or strengthening of a possible northern bridgehead, we understand so that it would not only be fed by belarusians, that is, the russians would start again and again he is playing there force. well, let's take turns to make it absolutely clear that his actions on the territory of donbass, first of all, in the luhansk region, although none will be completed there will be no serious offensives in any other direction , especially on such a remote from the key front line, i.e. no one is saying

that putin gave up the idea of ​​capturing kyiv, but for sure. this question is not timely now, because we all remember the events of february and march and we all saw for ourselves that the russians are not capable of conducting active offensive actions, serious offensive operations in several areas of the front, especially when the front line is stretched over a huge perimeter, the enemy began to advance only when it narrowed he was able to concentrate the maximum number of artillery barrels on this section of the front, in fact several tens of kilometers, and to concentrate his aviation in the family. then he began to advance very slowly, but still, the advance, so today we can talk about the fact that something is a threat to kiev , just now there is no such threat there is no, the first, the second , there are certain movements, certain actions are taking place on the territory of belarus .

the territorial defense troops were increased before the war, their number of belarusians, it is meant, did not exceed 5,000, now it has been doubled , 10,000 of these territorial defense troops are now not assessing the quality of these soldiers, but less, but the structure was doubled, the third moment is more intensive training before for all those units of the belarusian army of the lviv republic of belarus, which are the so-called units of increased combat capability, first of all, this concerns the 38th airborne assault brigade from to brest, the 103rd airborne brigade from vidtibsk and the 5th special forces brigade is marina gorka. well, the 6th motorized rifle brigade from grodno is also quite actively involved. this is also one of the most high-quality units of the republic of belarus. they really set the task of increasing

the number of the armed forces of belarus. has already taken place, and in fact immediately after the beginning of the invasion of the russian invaders into ukraine, the task of increasing the armed forces of belarus from 45 to 65,000 hryvnias is now she is trying to mobilize, well , mainly at the expense of the contractors of the requested mobilization of her armed forces, and mezhov was not given 85,000, but this task here, he and his colleague, she will be very difficult because financial resources do not allow staffing to mobilize everything necessary to provide such a large force for belarus now with regard to what exactly they did, this is not in their plans, but they do not do it for two reasons, firstly, they are not sure of the effectiveness of these armed forces and they are afraid that this not with the help of a will turn into a problem

, secondly, lukashenko, in spite of everything that he has long since ceased to be a subject of decision-making, he still tries to get through to consult as much as possible, and that is why the russians are trying to make the belarusian army in its current form more effective this is precisely what training and coordination training is related to. for those who do not know, i will inform you that from june 6 to 11, a week of heightened combat readiness is being held in belarus, actually under the er-e weapon of russian instructors. there is a certain education, certain training of belarusian military personnel, first of all, those units of those units about which i said, the airborne troops from the special forces yesterday, literally in our school, they want to destroy belarus, the second story is related to reflexes with a complex with phobias of the self lukashenka i would like to draw your attention to the fact that 70% of the military personnel of belarus

are not located on the ukrainian-russian belarusian border anna belarusian-polish ot that's exactly what i wanted to ask about yesterday on our broadcast, it was heard once about the fact that lukashenko will actually give the belarusians the task of creating provocations on the belarusian-polish border, he fears aggression from poland and it is absolutely real, i do n't know what he in their minds, they are preparing for an invasion from poland, because there is really a deployment of missile systems, which is really happening, this is the s3 s400 air defense system, which is also the iskander complexes, they are being deployed closer to the ukrainian border, but mostly they are being considered are being deployed closer to the polish last and why is this still happening another version is another reason which in principle does not exclude the previous two there is indeed a slight but still increase in the russian contingent of military personnel on the territory of belarus there is no

the formation of a strike group is taking place there is not being deployed by headquarters military management system, but the number of russians there is increasing, i won't remind you that in april, the vast majority of russians left belarus, the aviation troops remained there missile radio technical services, but the ground component was removed from there, now this component has increased a little, but all these maneuvers , all these movements, the increase of the russian deployment, they are primarily aimed at. and these are the so-called demonstration actions, they distract the armed forces of ukraine in order to make the overthrow parts of units from the north of ukraine to other regions. thank you, mr. serhiy, sir, sir, we understand that lukashenko must clamp down and be in a vise properly in order to resort to a nominal decision there, or did he sign under pressure putin's clear thing is to bring his troops into

the territory of our country. in your opinion, the whole chat is already trapped. and many ukrainians think that if belarusian troops enter the territory of our country, some of them will surrender a part simply takes our side to fight against the russians. there are such opinions. and to what extent are they justified in your opinion, given that, in general, belarusians , like russians, have had the same power for a longer time, and there is also a certain information vacuum propaganda took place, is it worth counting on the fact that the belarusians, if they attack us, will be more intelligent than the russians in this sense ? -m belarusian citizens well, that's right, we can, uh, unanimously evaluate the settings, because believe me, it's hard to carry out a

logical diet, but it's not for you, lucy, the investigation that was conducted in belarus shows that there is an absolute majority of opposition in your opinion of belarusians in the war against the cause the belarusian soldiers are fighting the war with their eyes one of those, er, of those, er, those mechanisms that er, and putin and lukashenka were driven to a simple affair of the belarusian muscovites, who, as i said earlier, are terminologists, er, and this is a simple affair of the belarusian army in the the war against ukraine is the fury of god. it was a critical mammoth on both sides when the belarusian army was dragged into the second moment.

it was precisely the influence of the russian information media and belarusian propaganda, which does not appear to be anti-war . we have the same share of the wheels of 45% and appear to be supporters of anti-military money. oleg it's enough for me when we compare with the sto the support they have, which putin has - this is about 80% of putin's patrols, preparing the so-called

military operations in their discourse. oh, where is your electoral base, and therefore such risky steps as the withdrawal of belarusians directly into the war will lead to a serious internal political crisis, or the shark lukashenko is afraid of, and practically how can it be to destabilize this space in belorussia, so surely kalib putin pressed lukashenko so hard and would like to use this belarusian military contingent in his meters, and he would do it to control eh in belorussia, as we see in the air spaces as we see in the territory, no one details for example no, i give how many russian search engines there were at the moment in belarus, well, just a question to ask as a state, the mass media seem to not officially provide any

the information clearly shows the total number of foreign troops on the territory of belarus, that is, in fact, we have to do with a hybrid occupation, and when it is sovereign, it seems that the government does not actually control the territory there . i did a lot, and my colleagues, this will be necessary in the next few hours, depending on how the operation will unfold. i completely agree with mr. serhiy about his dependence on how the military money will unfold. will depend together and the roles of the belarusian troops in this war today's main function is the function of drawing attention to the creation of hysteria within and mobilization of the internal mobilization of the public

. belorusskaya hrodstvo что и будет производить thank you, sir, well, i would now like to ask mr. serhii rachmaninov about ukrainian affairs, yes, about a month ago, we you you may have asked, do you remember the possible personnel conclusions from various intra-ukrainian stories? well , now the very strange removal of mr. roman dudi from the post of head of the kharkiv regional department of the security service has become a personnel opinion . well, this one is quite a resonant story that is starting to gain momentum. and according to certain information, he really tried and organized to a terrible extent, in particular, the delivery of weapons to the local terror defense forces. and here he was somehow taken in such a strange way and released without even hearing about according to my information, the story with mr. dutin is well

known, but this story so far raises more questions than answers because there is conflicting information coming from various bodies and law enforcement agencies of the state government and the military administration, so we have a proposal for the committee to hear this issue in closed session and before that, i cannot discuss this situation or comment on how things are progressing, for example, with the investigation or understanding of very strange stories that, for example, happened in the south of our country and on midnight, that is, this process is moving, i am not asking you to reveal any secrets, but in general, for you to outline the framework, i hope that it is moving, i say i hope because this information is in closed access, even i, as a member of the profile committee , was not always there, we do not all have access to of the entire planet of information, we repeatedly asked this question to the relevant leaders. and we were told that

there are certain investigations and official investigations and proceedings and, accordingly, everyone who is to blame, everyone in the actions of whom there will be even a hint of treason or any other crime, they will all be properly dealt with, their actions will be investigated, they will be punished if their legal actions are proven, in fact, in terms of history, there should be more speculation than truth, but the objective fact is that, unfortunately, a lot has been done in the south there were a lot of mistakes, strange actions, and certain persons, for sure, so there are at least suspicions in the actions of these persons, and signs of crimes, in particular, of the state council, but this is, accordingly, the competence of law enforcement structures, structures and the issue itself is taken care of, we can only

monitor this process after it is completed, it is ongoing as far as i know thank you, thank you mr. serhiy we thank our honorable speakers for contacting us serhii rahmanin, people's deputy, member of the verkhovna rada committee on national security, defense intelligence and pavlo usov, belarusian political scientist, head of the center for political analysis and forecasts, what are we going to do next? ukrainians at this stage of the war, is the same one present in that which we have already mentioned today and in general, how do you evaluate the prospects ? of sociology of support during may 7-15, 2022, with

a sample of about a thousand respondents representing the adult population of the west of our country, and this survey was not conducted with an understanding of the limitations of such research, however, respondents expectedly , 46% assess the political situation in ukraine as tense, and another 26% assess the situation as critical or explosive , only 13.5% assess the situation as safe or calm, younger respondents, residents of villages, as well as those who do not have children, usually more often assess the situation as calm, usually people do not they only assess the situation, but also try to look into their immediate future, some have hopes , some have anxiety, some have confusion, fears, optimism, confidence . other indicators well, we have 20% of optimists in the country. well, that is if we speak as of today, but hope for the future. you see, for your country

, we have 50 of them. and that of 61 if the future of the entire country. mind , we are analyzing the results of the study. i think it is worthwhile to involve a professional in this case, who accurately understood, based on the results of the evaluation, how ukrainians feel at the moment andriy sukharyna, political analyst of the democratic initiatives foundation named after ilko kucheriv, and andriy congratulations good afternoon, we can see the balance between anxiety and hope roughly like this, it is possible to outline the fact that again they are an analysis. and it seems to me that the glass is half full, considering that we have a large-scale war going on in our country. considering that we have an extremely difficult situation in many areas we are, after all, a large part of people remain

optimists, and in general, dalny, according to surveys, you show that, and not only in the social and psychological state, there is, in principle, something to work with, and, in general, society is, in principle, ready to continue struggle, but also in terms of other parameters about volunteering for mobilization, people in general, in principle, are calculated, they count on a probably covert and long-lasting struggle, but at the same time, it is also successful. i will say very quickly, of course, all these surveys now have their limitations from the first survey what is the face but even it we cannot conduct it all over ukraine exclusively in safe regions for now and they are not as accurate as they were before the full-scale russian invasion because millions of people have been displaced and are now not there by the place of residence, and this affects the accuracy of the research a little, mr. andriy, but if you compare

, for example, public sentiment at the beginning of march or in the middle of march, maybe you made some measurements even now. what parameters have changed and how? it was not possible to conduct polls according to the classical methodology, uh, colleagues, i know , they tried to conduct polls over the phone, but uh, it is a little difficult to compare them . the socio-psychological state has stabilized a little bit. unfortunately or fortunately, we develop such a hard skin in relation to the war and we, of course , this psychological state can change if something happens, either very good or very bad , respectively, but we

have become sensitive to such smaller things more callous and we react less. this is probably normal, because people have done everything, but it is not normal in such a historical perspective, because no one should have to go through, in fact , such a horror as ukrainian society goes through now, however, i can say that it is very unusual now that you can also see in the polls that people evaluate the prospects for the development of the state quite well and the prospects and optimism about the state in some places even more than about their own future, this is very strange because usually polls before a full-scale russian invasion for 30 years in a row respondents better when they thought about the future, they usually thought better about their future than about the future of the country. now, when the country is

going through such even more terrible trials tell me, they think about the future of the country often better than about their own future, mr. mr. andrii well, we understand that for sociology according to certain studies, studies are not only carried out by our government, we can see this in certain information reactions , information leaks, well, in general, this is not new, every government does this but we are also aware of the fact that the enemy is playing against ukraine using the data of the attention of sociological studies, i am more than sure that in the sociological environment of our patriotic researchers there are certain thoughts. we now have to wait from the enemy, taking into account the fact that he uses our own sociological landscape , the landscape of our thoughts, fears, hopes, the difference and

the specificity of ukraine is that public opinion actually determines a lot, very much, public opinion determines how it will be very often determines how the government will behave as they will behave like politicians. in general, we will live because we are not a dictatorship and we and any government are forced to pay attention to what is in public opinion, what is the biggest threat that is probably now ours society is obviously getting tired of the war, uh, many people understand that it is a long-term thing and are preparing for a long-term race, but you cannot be ready like that 24/7 and at a certain point there are such random days that part of society is more tired than usual and we all need positive incentives in order to

feed our faith in victory, and here the big threat is that either the government or others there, well, the government can understand what, er, such energizations are, and start not overblown actions, including, let's say, a counteroffensive that is not sufficiently prepared, which may to fail, that is, because society expects it, society expects big victories, society expects small victories, and uh, one way or another , the authorities uh, uh, are forced to respond to such requests, and it's very difficult, in fact, because of what kind of challenge that might be , that is, uh, if there are certain society's expectations are too high. well, i think that, let's put it this way , any politicians could resort to this. i'm not talking about anyone in particular, but i'm happy that the situation

in our country is now on a level with politicians , and the military is engaged in it, i think they have more sober approach and society's expectations are certainly important, but objectively the situation and all our resources are involved, this should be the decisive factor . analyzed one of the first face-to-face sociological surveys, thanks to which we now understand a little more the moods of ukrainians, which you can see from the tectonic suma is already slowly happening in our country despite everything that is being done yes well, but people remain optimistic, well, the main thing is to understand, so to speak, the inner motivation of people with optimism hope hope and a clear future this is a really interesting moment because we have a few moments left before the news and i would

now like to provide some positive information from of our government, which reports on the conduct of a successful sowing campaign, ukraine is considering the possibility of organizing mobile warehouses or storing the future harvest. despite the unprecedented challenges, it was successfully carried out and according to the ministry of agrarian policy and food, 75% of last year's area was sown. well, as far as i'm concerned , it's an absolute success. well, thank god, so to speak. we understand that the centralized storage will be hit with huge blinders, but inhumane methods as far as zaporizhzhia is concerned, there is more and more information that the enemy is withdrawing its forces and withdrawing even from the occupied block posts in this region in the direction of kherson, and andriy

tsaplienko writes that they leave even large, significant reserves of food at roadblocks, and by the way, with