has subversive groups of agents, and even more so in power. i agreed. nalivaichenko, people's deputy of ukraine, head of the security service of ukraine in 14-15 was in touch with us. well, we'll go over another topic now. and here's the material, please, let's actually talk a little bit belarus is constantly giving us new signals, led by lukashenko, who is not recognized as its president . again, there are stories about lukashenko even blurting out that western ukraine may still have to be reconquered, because the report will show that they will attack belarus and and they they want to level the front and they say that soon belarus will be taken over by the nativists in a word how to perceive all this of course this delusion eh let's look at our plot and then we will discuss it in a little more detail with an expert 1084 km of border separates ukraine from the state from where for the fourth month russian missiles and fighter jets have been flying official belarus

russia is not at war with us, however, russia uses the republic as a bridgehead for its air operations. pre-emptive strike on position 4 positions now i will show you a map of my father's map lukashenko really showed it, rather justified it to putin in front of himself, although he did not dare to fully enter the war, they say because of the furious resistance of his own army, and already on may 26, the belarusian dictator ordered the creation of an operational command of the armed forces of the republic in the southern direction, they say that the threat from ukraine is only growing... meanwhile, ukrainian military experts are convincing belarus, despite its relative silence the main fascist of the kremlin cherishes hope for belarusian resources, as far as i understand, because putin puts so

much pressure on lukashenko and constantly pulls him out, the armed forces of belarus are currently the largest reserve that the russian federation can count on, that is why putin is trying with all his might to force lukashenko to enter in this war, so that the enemy would not claim anything from ukrainian intelligence, it is now known that belarus has extended the deadlines for checking the combat readiness of its army until june 11, previously it was planned to fourth, it is not surprising that along the belarusian-ukrainian border, the russians have deployed iskander armored personnel carriers and operational-tactical aviation aircraft, our troops do not take any part in this operation, however, the general staff of the armed forces of ukraine confirms the opposite in the volyn and polis directions according to the inspection plan until june 11 in 2022, the armed forces of the republic of belarus are working on the issue

of creating strike groups in one of the directions and checking the readiness of the transport infrastructure for the transportation of personnel units lukashenko also plans to increase the regular army from 45,000 servicemen to 80, but they plan to arm the military units at the expense of technical means that are not stored, on the other hand , the leader of the republic of belarus does not hide the locations of the ukrainian army and fears a powerful repulse from ukraine . i'm not talking about natsiks, natsiks dry, this is a philosophical question of the military forces of ukraine, they will blow off anyone's head, especially natsiks, will belarus dare to openly attack ukraine, definitely say no however, military tension is noticeably increasing at the moment, president volodymyr zelenskyi assures that experts do not see real risks

of returning from belarus . you just said before the broadcast that you really didn't see the risks of its invasion before the invasion of the russian federation, you said that in principle the number of military personnel had increased, nothing special is happening. well, let's not to remember now but then the same sedative pills were given to us every evening thanks to some tv channels there, that's why these frames are better to ask igor tashkevich expert program international and domestic politics at the analytical center ukrainian institute of the future p igor i congratulate you good day here i am again mmm i don't believe the reassuring statements that somewhere, something, it won't be better to know some logic of the event, some processes taking place in belarus, and already proceed from this, whether lukashenko can still resort to direct invasion uh, well, supporting russia, is it not possible as of now, how big is this threat,

please, as of now, the threat is minimal and what gives you the opportunity to talk about it, training is being held on june 22, training is planned again, what training, i apologize zaporozhets car mercedes car and let's say kamaz yes or there, aman, also cars, but these are different estimates regarding the training in it, up to 800 people are involved in it, well, the military personnel themselves are involved in the training for a-a in the hustle and bustle of the complexities, this is the so-called mobilization training, they undergo training regularly once every two years, just now there is a lot of press attention, this is a collection of the first e-e list of lists of military obligees, this is a collection of basic data on motor vehicles that can be transferred e-e to

military units, another statement by lukashenko about the people's militia, yes the name of which to create well, here i very much doubt that well, they are creating, well, the formation there is a large group of hospitals , most likely they will be written off in the already existing format of territorial defense. at the university, this is how it knocks from the generals, but the question is that if we look at budget expenditures, as of today, there are not even planned budgets for strengthening or increasing the number of troops. one or two brigades or redeploy other military towns are not being built temporary military grids are not being built e power lines to a potential location e-e let’s say yes location

of military units. it does not last. well, as of today, as of today , this risk is minimal, and the plus is that everything goes into more detail. this is a key factor. the key factor is the mood of belarusian society, which in principle does not accept the idea of ​​a land war against ukraine, mr. igor . things about the mood of belarusian society, we know less about it now, or it is clear that we have tapes every day and our heads are filled with information about the war in ukraine, but i am really interested to know if there are any research or understanding at least what is belarusian society really living at the moment, how russia perceives the war at least from what we see and read well, there the support for putin is generally off the charts but is the economic situation in belarus real and is it now giving people reason to think about that and is lukashenko doing something at all or is something wrong, please let me know from

the point of view of pro-russian or pro-ukrainian positions or there is positive support for ukraine is a very simple litmus test for foreign region as part of the armed forces of ukraine, yes, they heard about the battalion of kasusy kalinovsky, that today it is a regiment. because the borders of a are closed - it is possible that he is coming, he understands that since he is from belarus he has to pass the sbu and military intelligence checks and most likely the routes are through poland, through lithuania, through other countries and this is a one-way ticket, if there will be at least one more nation that instead of deploying two battalions well, please, then let's talk, let's say so, let's compare from the point of view of sociology, it's

more let's say it's so imprecise that it's impossible to check the amount quantitatively, there are three sets of similar data on which uh, that is another measure is sent, this chat is chaos, which is conducted from the internet, the question of the urban population, but there is the rural population - this is 22% of the people who will be attracted to real, this is belarus, this is a logical workshop from warsaw, also the internet phone is a perch, but it is a sample general, this is a state survey, but it is half-closed, the academy of sciences is among the logicians, the demi-sciences, and the fourth is a closed survey, to which they sent what was among the military in open countries, this is a sociological workshop . the landmass of ukraine is from 7 to 10% of the total and all of it, and those who did not

support more than 60, moreover, do not support this war, but those who are electorally lukashenko's bucket , if such indirect data are, well, more than 1,000 reporters to be released - to be released from the armed forces in belarus when a closed poll was conducted on whether it is worth fighting. it was in march. i apologize. the military component of the belarusian army is 40 e 42 to 45,000 reports. i am not talking about the act of sabotage and other things that happened before, let's say a belarusian resource that provides information about the movement of equipment. yes, there are several thousand informants, but ask yourself a question about the logic. this is a few weeks of informants. this is the work of the ukrainian gur . yes, the belarusians, here are a few facts, then draw

conclusions yourself, the panel, if you allow, watched uh, well, at least they saw, heard some pictures, saw that there putin opened something, somewhere, something, it doesn’t matter where carefully what he said there that he is pyotr the first new and that he is collecting back in these the lands that are from konorus, and it is clear that ukraine is there, but surkov said how much they will take there, they do not know yet. well, actually, the war is now showing what they will take or whether they will not take anything at all, and maybe we will still extract something from them well, that's the question the second question about belarus or belarus remains a threat to even the limited sovereignty that belarus still has. in this rhetoric, does lukashenko understand it? there are also always such speculations, almost at the level of rumors,

that one of the options is the creation of a sheik allied states where lukashenko himself will be putin's successor, you are probably also commenting on this from the second option. lukashenko that lukashenko loves the government very much and, accordingly, the first stages of the so-called integration when lukashenko really destroyed belarusian independence . in a different way, here russia was already the initiator, and then it twisted its arms. well, today it will give, it has reached its maximum so far, if we talk in the short-term or long-term perspective, short-term perspective, and putin there is no one to lure lukashenko to for the second time in the term perspective. of course, russia does not make a

difference between ukraine and belarus and other states of the soviet space, it considers them its own periphery, it does not consider them full-fledged states, therefore today ukraine is fighting a war simply for survival, for the right to be ukraine and in principle the same sooner or later, whether in a political sense or in a political and military language, belarus expects, unfortunately, earlier at least it was said that lukashenko is conducting such negotiations as can be called separate because he in in principle, with no one and not in the union, yes well, except with russia well, it is possible and yes, consult with, well, at least there are dialogues or polylogues at certain levels with representatives of western countries who are trying to restrain lukashenka from reckless actions and at least still convince take him as an otaku in a waiting and more or less neutral position where possible. well, for this one we promise certain preferences. maybe there are less sanctions. well, in principle, they promise him that belarus will be able

to develop in the future. well, the question is how to develop please tell me whether such negotiations can really happen. if so, how do they pass by with putin's attention? how does he allow the omnipresent so to speak, eh, their eh forces are russian, here is eh lukashenko. in this way, try to take care of yourself too. don't just think about the union with russia, please , that is, actively enough, but not publicly, at least the last places are six in a row, other measures let's say intensity, but they are working . concessions first but a it goes if we talk about the signals from the west to lukashenko and from minsk to the west, then minsk will try to play the game that was played in the 14th year by a better dictator than and yes, it should have been demonstrated

that when lukashenko tried to spin so as not to take participation in the first phase of the war, do you remember when you expected that the belarusian troops would also rise, and why is he being questioned here in an authoritarian system of government? the fact is that lukashenko once again loves his own power under them very much and wants to share it with anyone as with the internal position, so with external players, accordingly, his logic of action is to do everything that strengthens his power, the war against ukraine weakens the will, the attempt to impregnate putin, it practically strengthens it, but until now, russia is so strong, and the open game weakens the power, respectively. lukashenko tried so to run like uh, at one time he said that he bandaged kuchma between uh drops of rain, it doesn't happen every time,

but well, uh, it's a global agreement. and that's exactly the formula for repeating the 14th year is impossible because lukashenko, thank you very much for your comments , they are actually very important ihor tashkevich, expert of the international and domestic policy program of the analytical center ukrainian institute of the future was in touch with us, they did not talk about the situation with the threat from belarus well, now i understand, let's talk about the war. reality is a threat now ivan kyrychevsky military expert defect express with us in touch p ivan good day good day we heard through our adviser er is he advisers arestovych arestovych well, obviously the chairman's discussion of the president such a society heard that our losses were reduced to somewhere around 10,000 e-e true. he said that the russians lost more because of this and we already know e-e this all brings us back to the question of what is now e-e

what is the situation at the front now are we tactically now ukraine is starting to lose at this moment, what is happening in general, what is your opinion, despite the fact that i have read, in particular, michael koffman, an american military expert, actually a material about the 100 days of war, where he says that tactically, ukraine is now in a difficult situation phase for themselves, but strategically, the chances of victory remain high. well, let's say it's so difficult to claim that we will lose tactically somewhere there, if you take into account the fact that there are already some . well, the day of the war is already going on. the city, moreover, there was a report that our troops were able to cover the headquarters of the occupiers there, and cover it with the help of grenade launchers, or so it hints that at the tactical level, in fact,

we clearly have fewer problems than the russians, if even there are any there are also prerequisites for us to start, you know, more and more large-scale killing of the roshests in the kherson region, that they have already reached the point where they are building reinforced concrete fortifications on the bridges near the very northern crimean canal, that is, in other words, the russians are already morally preparing for the fact that we can leave on the admin of the border to the crimea , let's say the russians are clearly still more for you, again, if you turn to the primary source, the more precisely it is to understand what the adviser to the head of the op said, yes, he, uh, how about the district in relation to our losses can be of the order of 10,000 people at a time. well, the second thing that is unfortunately stable in our country, that is , the level of losses of empty persons per day of our servicemen in our heroes, unfortunately, it has remained at this level since the first day of the

war, and this is unfortunately, we we can't do anything about it, because even in spite of that, let's say this, the tendency for the attacking side to bear more losses than the defense that is nannying in us, this has a reverse side, and the side that defends still has losses. unfortunately for us, these losses they are priceless. that is, it is still difficult to write their weight, but this is no reason to fall into decline there and say that we will lose tactically somewhere if the russians somewhere if we manage to successfully disrupt the measures of the russians. let us now talk about weapons from the allies . about the installation of the economic system, germany is the main one. as stoltz said, it can protect entire cities from threats from the air. well, more than a million against aircraft, not anti-missiles. well, but we will possess it as early as october, well, of course, this is not about all the weapons. october, december, november next year, we need weapons now, and there will be a third meeting. this

new coalition is called rammstein . now and the most important thing is whether they have finally reached an agreement on whether they are afraid that ukraine will strike somewhere on the territory of russia, or whether they are not afraid of it, because it is not here. the question is whether we struck or whether we will not strike and before that at the beginning of the war, do you remember these strikes? there are points, of course, and here the question is, again, they will stop being afraid of it and erase it as they plunder our territory, or will they not stop, because i understand that depends on what quality of weapons and power will be provided to ukraine. please judging by the information that is now spread in the western media, it is the eyes of darkness on the non-national systems, because there

is still such a clear emphasis that we are inferior to the russians in terms of the number of public tables, tens of thousands in 10 times, respectively, to transmit to the front to get the situation to break through in our favor eh and therefore, accordingly, it will still be the first thing to talk about it, again, if we start from the fact that now, after all, it was about the fact that we need more artillery, more means of destruction precisely at the front in order to e-e rather expel the fascists from our land, there is already such a fear that we will take the american ministry of internal affairs there and let's start beating some russian slobdiotkin on the border with sumshchin never arises because well, somehow, this happens, some of the most inadequate fears of the western allies regarding ukraine, russian lobbyists, but since the russians have separated to work in a high-quality way, all those

bubbles are bursting quite quickly in our rammstein, judging by everything that will happen there, this is just a generalization of previously reached agreements on the supply of arms, because, for example yesterday, there were literally no weapons of any kind. first of all , finland announced that it was ready to transfer to us an additional batch of weapons of what kind and in what quantity. well, first of all it is clear to you why they didn’t paint. but the films have a lot of interesting things there, and we need, for example, howitzers d-30 . even such an exotic country, montenegro, which seemed like it, volunteered to provide us with military aid. yes, there is no, but where is montenegro ? interesting nomenclature of supplies, at least anti-tank complexes of soviet production or

even a couple of howitzers from the type up to 30, if even such things surface that montenegro is not typical for us, the country is already ready to help accordingly, all these agreements can simply be finalized. well, something is formalized, again , to the poles to provide tanks and other rammstein weapons, there is no need, they themselves come here to negotiate something, hey, what’s really going on when talking about artillery assistance, then about 10% of what is in these nato countries, which we share with us, they have already transferred it to ukraine, more or less, it is obvious that how did it happen that there is so much artillery in russia and not so much in the west, and what should we do when we after all, they got involved in this artillery war with the russian army, why did it happen that the russians have a lot of guns, the others don’t. well, russia is all of them since the 90s , probably the only country on the continent that is ready

, that was preparing for the great war, that actually tried there somewhere to take this model of a great war, for example to a girl, because there was not yet a counter-terrorist operation there and there was a full-fledged big one . well, that's how it turns out that, for example, just like the americans howitzers of the l7 type, well, the m-77 and only 600 units, only 600, and when at the time when the russians have interesting 152 mm howitzers in their warehouses, there can be literally thousands of them. what should we do about that ? what can we say in our

country ? projectiles can lie, let them get tired of what barrels, and there are not enough shells for them, about the following way out of the situation. i would like to ask about the events that have passed so far. so far , it is not about her. it is not worth telling the president. there he talked about russia as a marauder, a murderer, a criminal, and well, in principle, he showed what russia is, in fact, he told about the fact that russia has already used more than two and a half thousand missiles against ukraine, and i am in this in the context of what i wanted to ask, even by the way, there was such a fake that the chinese delegation allegedly came out during zelensky's speech, in fact, the chinese did not go anywhere, they sat and listened, but what am i leading to ? more tanks than, say, france, germany and belgium have in their armed forces, if i'm not

mistaken, taken together, that's just the level, the level of confrontations, the level of military power, so to speak, and how many asian countries are now can help us in one way or another. support in this confrontation with russia. well, i am not talking about china. maybe there are other countries that have a clear position . would be useful, please, well , theoretically, what could help us there ? south korea itself, which has a certain fleet of armored vehicles, rather of russian production, they seem to have about 40 units of bmp-3 and about 40 t-80 tanks, which russia has already supplied for the debts of the soviet union, the same tanks zelenskyi seems to have asked south korea back in april, but unfortunately south korea has not yet dared to hand them over. because they need this armored vehicle to imitate the north korean army in exercises, but well, but judging by everything, let's say south korea out of

all these countries in asia, this is probably the only country that could help us with weapons, because some part of the soviet union takes a too dialectical position, which does not completely correspond to our interests , to buy weapons from china. well, here we can to fight a direct conflict with this for our biggest ally, er, there are some other asian countries like vietnam, give one to vietnam, and in general, there are such ancient tanks of the t-54 or t-34 type in service there, by the way, there are such, you know it is an interesting fact that for their advice the russians, for example, tanks in general, illustrate the level of armaments of the countries of asia in thailand. it seems that there are several tanks. the stronghold of our production, but will thailand agree to sell them back to

us ? he will mature there and give us this russian-made armored vehicle to begin with, what to do with it, how to maintain it, we just know how there is trophy equipment, obviously, tell me the repair repair kits are already obvious, there are literally 3 minutes left, they remember what the coca-chickens are for it is written about what can be incredible. super samurai who has all the techniques of sword fighting, but alone he will lose if a hundred peasants with bamboo spears come against him. why am i saying this? well, finally, we already know what they are going to transfer, what are they called, these two thousand with the marking of a german howitzer, which are very, very good, but in my opinion, how many seven are they transferring seven pieces, something like that, 6-7 completely, that is, or it will not be the seven samurai who will not be able to resist, although we know from the

movie kirokorosav that they were able to resist those forty russian robbers on their rukhlids but which is pounding with an incredible number of shells and you know exactly my problems that the concept of conducting hostilities is still according to standards they are nato predicts that all of this paradise will be forced to fight against russian bandits there, just what are the bonuses of these german self-propelled guns in the fact that they have a very sophisticated guidance system and very controllable fire, or there you can enter shooting in manual mode, in semi-automatic mode , in automatic mode, you can to accept there the body indicating external sources like there drones , the computer can there calculate the exact data for the input of firing from the front there division then the calculation for a single there some initial or the number of orders to start firing in only two minutes and came to oksana in position while

, for example, in the czech republic dan self-propelled guns can open fire in 45 seconds and, judging by the lack of transport, so that these german panzer howitzers corresponded to the reality of our war, our gunners worked these all the last 40 days in germany and i really hope that if, let's say, if our gunners had the skill to adapt the software to caesar, then with the german self- propelled guns, they heard what he was saying clearly. thank you very much ivan krychevsky, military expert, dyfensky express well, andrii and i will put an end to it. thank you very much for being with us. andrii zaichuk was with me and vasyl zima. iryna koval iryna please thank you without words