must lose. but this is a way to make it clear that he lost, since such a freezing of the conflict would inevitably lead to an escalation in some time . but our military tells us that it is not available in the amount they need, this means that the war can be long, and putin is counting on this for a war that weighs down the ukrainian economy, and putin is playing the so-called long game. it's true, warriors, that's how wars usually end not at the so-called tactical

level, but at the economic level. yes, but let's remember that russia today is the country that has suffered the largest sanctions in the world. this also applies to recent history. the west covered russia with much greater sanctions than i a supporter of this hoped. i will tell you honestly what they hoped for. i thought that it was possible to stop at swift, but that would also be a problem. i did not expect that the west would freeze russian currency reserves. this is a very serious blow, because it means that these the means that putin collected decades before the start of the war are not ready to be used, i cannot import , he cannot import microcircuits and other spare

parts, which means that it will be very difficult for russia to rebuild the stocks of missiles or tanks or other military equipment, we declared them a cargo for the transportation of oil by ships hungary waving its right the veto is able to block a collective decision with your vote, and it blocked sanctions on oil transported by gas pipeline, but this is a smaller part of the amount of imports, of course oil is a commodity of international exchange. so, the russians somehow push this oil of theirs onto international markets, but they will have to give a discount of 20-30%, that is, russian revenues from oil exports will decrease

significantly . for western economies and societies, and this is in a situation similar to that of ukraine, in the future it transports russian gas for itself, and for transit it still clearly receives calculations from gazprom, so these are very difficult decisions, please also remember that we do not want these sanctions to be so painful that western societies turn their backs on ukraine and its support in this conflict. there is also support in that conflict, well, with the gas company, and with mr. in the world, i did not expect that the united states would impose sanctions of this level. as

our mutual acquaintance from the united states, daniel fried, said, the sanctions will be very serious. this refers to our conversation with him about a month before the next russian invasion of ukraine, but no one could have thought that they would reach such a level and obviously putin did not expect that his wife would fall so much for him and that the russian economy would be under such a threat and would be deprived of development prospects in general, but on the other hand we can see that it is still holding on second moment very important, perhaps for the first time in many years, russia is pursuing an aggressive policy and waging a war without allies, in fact without any allies . i can no longer remember such a thing, maybe it was in the 19th century, or during the afghan aggression of the soviet union, at least the so-called warsaw bloc, the support bloc for the soviet

union, was involved, now russia is alone, the cleansing itself is not complete, because, for example, the next kyiv would not have taken place if lukashenko had not provided its territory, but i agree with russia and the lynched, although we remember if we count the population of those of the countries that abstained in relation to this condemnation of support for russia's aggression against ukraine, quantitatively, the majority live in the countries that abstained, this should worry us because it means that my wife wrote, however, in in his article, bad people win that, unfortunately, democracy is not in its prime at the moment. on the contrary, autocrats help each

other and, unfortunately, succeed in returning to the economy. you are right, the relative size of the economic decline is taken into account. it is estimated that the russian economy will decrease by 10 this year. -15% ukrainian, more estimates indicate several tens of percent. i believe that the most important factor today is what the leaders of smaller countries who collaborate with by putin and what the us congress passed billions of dollars this is a tsunami of money, part of it will go to humanitarian aid and part to support the economy and about half to military

support i would uh uh uh in washington 48 hours ago in washington i talked with there with several important by persons who are convinced that there will be a significant improvement in ukraine's position on the battlefield in the coming weeks, that supplies are already on the way, those who have already arrived in ukraine are not yet at the front or are undergoing training, but as soon as they get to the front in the next few weeks, so park the advantages will shift to the side of ukraine, this is the weight of wheat on the country in ukraine well, but something is really connected, but still our military is waiting for weapons for heavy weapons, we understand that this should solve everything, it is about the battlefield, on the other hand, we are very much counting on support and the rest, that is, on the intelligence service is talking not only about the united states, but

also about our closest neighbors, that is, poland , lithuania, latvia, estonia, and obviously not so close, but very friendly to us . support can determine the decisive level. i believe that ukraine has a chance to win this war , primarily from the point of view of the mistakes and weaknesses of the russians. ukraine's strategic advantage in this war is russian corruption. i hope that putin himself did not know how weak his army is. and that russian soldiers, pilots, sailors are the most beautiful. they don't want to die for his palaces and yachts. and here is the point of difficulty of this war: persuading russian soldiers not to want to follow orders, to want to return home. see

, the war also has a political aspect. i believe that ukraine more or less refrained from attacks on russian territory for the right tactics, we do not want the russians to admit that this is really their war, it is in our interests, in the interests of ukraine, what was believed to be putin's war ukraine, the prospect of a so-called defense alliance between ukraine, great britain and the baltic states is possible poland would also enter there, what do you say about this? i don't know whether it is possible to create such a nato within nato or also such a union that would be partly in nato and partly not, we

thought about it when i was the minister of foreign affairs even with minister grizko, under the circumstances of russia's aggression against georgia, it is legally possible, of course, because poland is considered safe on the nato border and at the same time provides support to ukraine. israel or that ivanivna number , the united states has other opportunities, the truth is, i hear interesting feedback coming from very high circles in the west, namely that until putin attacked ukraine, the members of the the european union was at risk of them in the west because it gave putin a pretext, and maybe partly a reason for aggression, but now that he has carried out this

aggression, it is paradoxical . in most nato countries, public opinion is in favor of supporting ukraine, but not in favor of a war with russia in defense of ukraine. servants, how serious is this threat? it is about the use of tactical nuclear weapons. i believe that the threat is not very plausible, and it is not zero. i do not think that putin dared to attack nato territories with nuclear weapons, except for rhetoric. at the

moment, i do not see any preparations. russia has several thousand tactical warheads, they are stored in warehouses specifically prepared for this and how we as the union usually monitor 24 hours a day and when we would see the movement of atomic warheads to the units of any aviation artillery or rockets are dogs of what? about the fact that russia is preparing for something similar, also because it is covering the nits, so it is not motherhood, but there is nothing like that, what is more difficult is how to convince putin that it would be too risky for him to issue such an order regarding ukraine, which is not is a formal member of nato and our ally. i have two arguments that

i think putin should take into account. the use of tactical weapons occurs through a different decision channel than strategic weapons. strategic intercontinental weapons are essentially very a short chain of decisions from the president's order to the officers who launch missiles, since the decision must be a very quick reaction within a few minutes, for example, to the enemy's first strike . the kremlin."

it is impossible not to comply with the orders and keep the position. and perhaps life is also another argument, it has not yet appeared publicly, but which i consider to be well- founded, as you know, ukraine has given its nuclear arsenal after the budapest memorandum was signed in 1994, so that you and

the russians and even some others say that this was not a guarantee, as he says, that ukraine would instead be an independent country within the borders established by of the times of the soviet union, russia has definitely violated this treaty and many times ukraine did not have operational control over that arsenal and did not have the ability to keep it in a safe state but why russia has violated this budapest memorandum, so i believe that we as a party had the right to present nuclear mantises to ukraine so that it could protect its independence, this is a very important moment to use the budapest memorandum in a

proper way, this means in our favor and maybe there is still some chance since we understand what threatens the kremlin, perhaps not only with a strike on ukraine with a tactical nuclear weapon, but perhaps it is a so-called dirty bomb of strengthening, since the strengthening is possibly demonstrative of the old friendship between by putin and the kremlin and the environment in the middle east, we are talking about representatives from various arab structures, a dirty bomb would not have given putin anything , that is, innocent people would have died, but putin would not have achieved either a political goal, or a military one, or any other, but obviously we must introduce him into uncertainty about our directions, so

that he takes this into account in his calculations ms. varshavka, what is the chance for us to go? what is the chance for change, that is, it is about the rebellion of the russian elites, i understand that in 1944 in germany there was something something like this happened not only because colonel vonstaufenberg was so good. good morning. but he understood where he had led his country. we are talking about hitler's germany, and that is precisely why part of the elite in germany began to very actively prepare a certificate. how do you assess the readiness of the russian elites today for changes in their country? stauffenberg was not a liberal, he was a german nationalist and believed that hitler was harming germany, and i think that many

russians today think that way about putin, only this is a very centralized system, personally, personally dictatorship paradoxically, but more centralized than the soviet union. let me remind you when, after the death of stalin, the soviet leadership was threatened by the opera, then the generals were convened in the crimea and voted for the removal of beria. he was arrested on the spot, that is, there was a group of people who could make the decision to remove the leader from power. khrushchev ridiculed the soviet union with his solution to the cuban crisis, there was talk of placing nuclear missiles in cuba, the struggle sent him into retirement, that is, today putin is theoretically a democratically elected president of russia so it is possible to remove him from power. hmm, by quite

traditional methods, you know, many roman emperors were convinced that the preterian guard was not in all situations loyal to tsar paul the first , it was also destroyed, and his son, tsar alexander, nevertheless knew, but washed his hands and began to rule. maybe we will see something similar activity on the part of patrushev and others similar to him, and there are other russian cases, but there is one more aspect that is important to explain to our friends in western europe, who do not always know the history of russia so well like us, that is, they believe that feeding putin with ukrainian lands is the way to some

stabilization and some kind of relaxation, and you and i know that in russia, reforms took place only after lost wars, such as after the defeat in the crimean war , what operations in the russian-japanese war are completely with you, even in a certain sense. after the defeat in the first world war, unfortunately, the kremlin seeks the destruction of ukraine as a sovereign state, where nazification means an attempt to destroy the ukrainian people of ukraine, as we have already seen in the realities of kyiv the region in irpen bucha and so on really about the terrible reality of the russian plan and when, for example, talking about the realities of what scenarios you see in the next few months, i would bet them

that these war crimes that took place north of kyiv were rather demoralization and arbitrariness of the militants and what is politics is classification , deportation, the introduction of currency, the appointment of traitors in the occupied territories, and these are the obvious territories, and mariupol and kherson, but also mariupol , but also kherson, but there is a part of zaporozhye, and so on. here, russia can no longer pretend that it is not, this is not official policy, it must serve. we all know that putin has been telling us about it with brutal honesty for a long time, it is enough

to read his essay from july last year or his speech at the beginning of the war or various texts for example, the text that appeared in ria novosti when they already believed that kyiv was taken by the intention of extermination when it comes to the statehood and identity of ukraine does not mean that they want to do to you what they did to the countries of central and eastern europe after revolution or after the second world war, the elimination of the elites, the destruction of the culture of destruction and otherness, then the management of a russified demographic population devoid of leaders believes that this is their plan, but it has already failed. you tell ana the rest. i think it is very strange

that putin did not draw any conclusions from 14 in the fall of the year, they already tried to do this with the help of those points. you remember that in mykolaiv, kharkiv and odesa, they wanted to take control on the same mistake, arguing that a russian-speaking ukrainian is a russian and wants to to live under the leadership of putin but this is an absurd theory, please, um, try to tell an irishman that he is an englishman and that ireland should be ruled by london again. go ahead. try to say something similar to an american who also speaks english, because it is ultimately absurd. i believe that identification in ukraine today not only ethnic

, linguistic, but also political. i have the impression that today, for ukrainians, it is partly a civilizational choice for europe and against autocrats. in your opinion , why did putin start another intervention? it is about on february 24, he succumbed to false information from intelligence or was it some kind of mental reaction of his. why did he start all this? i think that somewhere before 2011 he wanted to be on a converging trajectory with the west. katyn, when i was in moscow, i visited such a former polyphone of the nkvd, where during stalin's time orthodox priests were tortured, i don't remember exactly

and the names at that moment were called with the letter b, but in any case russian orthodox priests who now take care of this place, told me that putin should be a frequent guest there. but around the 11th year , putin decided that the west was trying to prevent him from holding the presidency again, and this year he decided that the west took ukraine from him, as if ukraine was ours or there was an opportunity for this to be taken away from someone during the pandemic , he read some nonsense of duginsky or stalin’s tsarist gandhi books, he picked up a completely distorted history of russia itself, you know, in a certain sense, he follows the traditional path russian tsars, many of whom started as

modernizers and reformers ended up as reactionaries, because it turned out that reforms in russia are too difficult and this is a defeat. modernization, but at the same time, testing the system, and you know how it turns out, and this in the full sense is reassuring for us that a system based on coercion of lies or theft was ineffective, who could have thought the truth, the truth, i must end our conversation and i must thank you for your excellent analysis, we are holding on. glory to ukraine, no, glory to the heroes on the air of the espresso tv channel, i was happy sikorsky, former minister of defense, former

minister of foreign affairs of the republic of poland. and now, a member of the european parliament, another round of negotiations took place with the participation of the russian ribbentrop, minister of foreign affairs lavrov, yes . and it is as if the parties have not reached anything, but the most important thing is the fact that russia is forced to look for certain points of contact in order to exit on the other hand , we understand that russia is now looking for, so to speak , additional negotiating platforms not only in istanbul, but also in paris, in brussels and in berlin. but luckily for us and generally for the luck of the entire western civilization, russia has no chance to achieve its interests in public because the cream and putin have become too toxic about this and other things, the famous

american political scientist andriy piontkovsky, who is in washington. glory to ukraine andrii andriyovich, i am glad to see you in the studio of the virtual studio of the espresso tv channel. experienced the so-called istanbul track, and information appears that mr. abramovich worked extremely hard on another track, which you see now, the prospects of erdogan's various proposals, first of all, he is interested in his trade with putin, he has a lot of lesha how is god playing us this conflict in syria, this is in

libya, in egypt, there, uh, not in africa, somewhere, you can donate one figure, you don’t lead the neighbor, etc. the budget that is normal, as it was 35 years ago, and it remains, uh, putin’s man, i also work in conjunction with him, well, it seems to me that uh, eh, igrodogan’s efforts are the last ones, uh , and that this is speculation in the same direction and that the capitalist proposal calls it that the italian peace plan on which they stand while he, uh, the six of them show me uh, trust, respect, the reactions of ukraine, the last days well, the pope has already negotiated, uh, everything, the speakers of the ukrainian government, zelensky, kuleba, danylo freznikov, and the history

of others, a film by a representative of the uh, administration the president spoke very harshly for 30 minutes about those bad things that are offered by italy, italy, france. well, here are the formats about the collective zelenskyi andriy andreyovych and mr. rohamy, for the court, i confirm that abramovich helped save 400,000 ukrainians, z-times writes about this, so we understand that we have very different groups of influences in our leadership. well, this is not for comments, of course, but simply returning to the topic of abramovich , regarding arkhamia, i do not consider him abandoned by the ukrainian government, and by the way, i remember what anti-american statements it's about the time they preceded, er, putin's version