serhiy well, i understand that in relation to the end of the war, resuming the own production of fuel in ukraine is inappropriate, in your opinion. well, of course, no one will resume large-scale production, because indeed 23 rockets were fired at the kremenchug oil refinery as a result of uh, three attacks by rashists, respectively, well, it's like this the lesson is very strict, that's why no one will do it now, we can really see that there are small factories working, such as mini refineries, so-called, they are not very influential, yes, but they are also supplying something to the market little by little the quality is different. let's say that they work, well, in the end, some large productions. i think that it is unlikely until the end of the war. it makes sense. well, these are semi-legal productions, you say small or well, what, what kind

of production are they? are they real producers? they never declare that they produce fuel er, but they declare that they produce some components, yes, and then those components enter the market er, where they are already er, or they are produced on the market, or they produce them immediately, this gasoline is marketable, but it well, it’s not considered a type. according to the documents, it’s not like that. well, that’s how it works. well, today, as they say, everything that’s on fire is needed there. well, today, even why, because i understand that right now, production. well, import and production have deprived everyone . taxes and excise duties, yes, in principle, these people can be legalized now as fuel producers. well, they can, but i think that they don't want to risk it, because you will open the cards .

may have consequences, that's why i don't think that anyone will be legalized there, especially because the only thing is that the only thing is that the quality is not very good. in march, the government allowed the use of fuel standards of euro-3 and euro-4, and i think that they can fit into euro 3. thank you, mr. serhiy, for the analysis of the fuel market. the director of the a-95 consulting group serhii kuyun joined our broadcast. thank you very much for today's the rammstein meeting statement from the nato head of state we are watching we will watch his press conference please nato must increase its level of readiness and strengthen its military potential along its

eastern border after russia's invasion of ukraine this was announced by the activity after the meeting in the hague with the leaders of the netherlands data from romania belgium poland portugal and latvia we discussed the need for a more reliable and combat-ready forward presence even higher readiness and more than previously deployed equipment we also considered the need to invest more money in our defense and to invest more money together in order to strengthen the joint financing of nato, stoltenberg said, according to him, the next strategic concept of nato will be agreed at the summit in madrid, then we should have oleg penzen, economists, and mykhailo kolisnyk, professor of the kyiv school of economics, on economics, in particular, we will talk i'm still reading an interview with mykhailo fedorov about what minsky, about the minister of digital policy and transformation, he says that we will reject russia's economy many years ago, it will not have a future, and

with the full-scale invasion of russia, ukraine has shown the significant role of modern digital technologies . from the point of view of ensuring the stability and flexibility of the ukrainian state in wartime, in particular, in response to aggression, the action platform quickly launched three new services in the national space. there is an enemy damaged property there is support and even organized a nationwide survey on the legalization of firearms we remember these all applications in action and we had we can use it, so fedir mykhailovychnyk is joining us, a professor of the kyiv school of economics, we welcome you, mykhailo, good day, please comment on mykhailo fedorov’s words, how ready are we now to fight on the economic front to push back the economy of russia, oleg, well , look at in the literal sense, i wouldn't say that, in

fact, the sanctions that have been introduced limit access to the russian market of the latest technologies , moreover, large companies that actually hold the know-how in a large company that conducted invested a lot of money even in mining things, and primarily this concerns the doblo company in them, i mean the same exomobile about the same shell, they left the russian market, taking the technologies with them, so at the moment we understand that the world and development in the world impossible without globalization, without modern technologies, without priority development of enterprises and industries with high added value, in these matters the russian federation currently lags far behind and even on the example of the russian automobile industry, we can see

an absolutely comical situation when cars are pulled out of the archives and returned to serial production with euro-0 european standards and without abs, without catalysts, without other safety systems. is a vivid example of technological degradation. in fact, this moment today is a very vivid example of what is happening in reality, because we know very well that without e-e chips, without semiconductors, and russia is trying to do semi-uvatnikov technologies, but they are of extremely low quality, and it is impossible to reproduce neither high-precision weapons nor modern technologies in other fields, so from this point of view, sanctions are extremely harsh on the russian federation. and indeed, it is very annoying today from the point

of view of technological progress. mykhailik and you what do you think? i want to manipulate the numbers a little. in fact, in such modern confrontations, the system with the stronger economic system will win, and we will base our calculations. well, for example, on the gdp of the russian economy at the moment is approximately 16-17% of the economy of the united states of america. if you calculate it like this, the truth is that there are no funny numbers for ukraine, especially if you take those countries that help us, then our contribution to gdp to their combined contribution is approximately 0. 3%, that is, our system is directly economic, well, it cannot compete with the russian system simply because of the difference in size, the difference in territory, the difference in people , the difference in natural resources and, as a result, the difference in gdp. well, together with my friends here

ratio, because it is a benefit, so i think that this friendship and integration should be valued, of course, effectively. actually, we should use the things that our western partners and colleagues give us, and then in addition to everything that was added by my colleague oleg, are we with him? i absolutely agree , we will definitely win. olezh well, let's go and smoothly transition to the ukrainian economy. what can we expect, according to the world bank's forecasts, we will lose 45% of gdp by the end of the year, and inflation there will be at least 20%. well, catastrophic numbers what is the point of getting wrapped up in the fact that our salaries will be halved by the end of the year, at least their purchasing power is your word well, i agree with mr. mykhailo, in reality, at the moment, the strength of the ukrainian economy is extremely low, and when we call real figures, the

month of may from the ukrainian budget in us , social payments and the war were spent in the order of 240 billion hryvnias, in fact, tax revenues were set at 83 billion, a direct deficit of 5 billion dollars per month per month yes, per month and we we have to understand that these are not investment projects, there are not some big construction projects, this is a difference, by the way, in my opinion, 120-122 billion dollars went to the war alone from the 83 that we received, our social expenditures are quite large well, let's be honest, ukraine has a big enough social burden for this. so, without real financial aid in various forms, because we

know very well that of the total amount of funds that come to ukraine, only about seven , a maximum of 9% - these are grant funds, that is, which are not it is necessary to give everything, the latter comes in the form of loans, so preferential, so long-term, so profitable, but loans, therefore, in this situation, actually, the indicators of the figures i am talking about speak about the capacity of the ukrainian economy, and a few more very interesting figures, eh, the international labor organization published for 100 days of the war, a very interesting report, a report concerning the ukrainian labor market in the 100 days of the war, ukraine lost 4.8 million jobs, this is approximately a little less than 30% of the total labor market mop wrote as follows: if the war continues for six months, ukraine may lose up to 7 million jobs

, actually, if the war ends sooner, ukraine will recover 3.5 million jobs quickly enough , the overall level of labor market decline is 8-10%. why am i talking about the labor market, why is it so important, because the gross domestic product is created by the hands of people, and we must understand that the workplace is synonymous with the product that is reproduced in the country, because by and large, the more workers in the country the more taxes, the more gdp is created in our country, so for now we have such a situation , so far, at the moment, it is somewhere around 35 minus gdp and by the end of the year there is really a very big fear. what will be -45, how quickly we will turn it back depends on the first, when and how quickly the war will end and what other damages will be caused to

the economy of ukraine as a result of these and the second, what funds and through what programs will come to ukraine for its recovery without these things, it is definitely very difficult to say anything, mr. mykhailo, how will this be reflected the situation on the real incomes of the population that has remained in the country and is working well, as well as those pensioners and socially dependent persons who are also in ukraine have not left, please, well, look , in fact, their incomes mean that since the structure of employment in our country is uneven and the population is, in principle, employed in various industries then the loss of people's income will also be uneven. well, for example, those who are involved in the industries of goods of the third group are luxury goods and those who are involved in the production of goods of the second group are good goods which are not essential, they will lose a lot, well, in fact, the third group is almost completely, according to the surveys we conducted

at the kyiv school of economics, it disappears completely now, at the moment, during wartime, and the second group, it shrinks by about 70 percent and even the first group is essential goods, there the volume of sales falls by 20-30%, which in general is an unprecedented phenomenon, because even in times of deep crises, the first group mostly grows, so people switch to cheaper ones goods for basic necessities and now even it is shrinking, er, again, according to the results of the survey, er, about this. but here, no one noted the increase in wages in significant volumes, only the father-in-law. maybe in the field of it, a little bit of wages. they have grown everywhere. actually, their decline is noted well, and one more thing, this situation also has its negative impact from the point of view of the export of our country, there are also several interesting figures that can be enlightened by mr. mykhailo a, who is currently conducting

research at the kyiv school of economics, perhaps some there are not er published which you can share your forecast from your school. well, first of all, everything will definitely be fine, i have absolutely no doubt about it, and moreover, since these crisis phenomena we have, they are, as they say, inspired by not er unchanged in economic system and the will of individual people, the economy itself shrinks and shrinks, which means that after our victory, we can actually expect a fairly quick recovery, although at a high rate of recovery , all our recovery will take quite a long time, yes that is, it could be 3-5 years, maybe even more. in fact, i wanted to take the initiative of the authorities. the president and the government are in favor of the detinization of the ukrainian economy, that the entire economy worked legally and

paid taxes, this is now the most important thing, well , all of the ukrainian state. in the previous block they talked, i don't know if you heard, they talked about semi-legal, well, let's say illegal mini-factories for the production of fuel, which even now, in the absence of taxation there, do not want to produce fuel to legalize because, as serhii said, you will open the cards today, tomorrow the rules will be changed. and you have already opened the cards and made up your losses, they will begin to tax you, there are no fools. it is not from me. is the idea of ​​a state that tries to bring to light the whole business and tax everyone equally according to clear and understandable formulas, please , look, it is very easy to be a supporter

of everything good against everything about axis against everything bad well, are any of the four of us present here against the fact that the shadow economy has completely disappeared , in my opinion, we are all exclusively in favor, but let's look at the real things in the world, at the moment there is not a single country that has completely overcome both the shadow economy and corruption , even in the most democratic, in the most transparent , the cleanest and most beautiful countries, there is a shadow economy, so what to talk about. as soon as you and i make a decision, and tomorrow we will not have a shadow economy, it is rather political statements rather than real things, that is, there are areas of business that will definitely always be in the shadows and these are legal and semi-legal, these are illegal and semi-legal types of activities that will always be prosecuted by the law, well, in the end, drug trafficking is well, this is also a business, it is true and it

will always be in the shadows, unequivocally that is, the shadow economy exists despite any desire. well, in the same way that corruption exists in any country, even one that has extremely good institutions related to the fight against corruption, that is, we are also talking about something on the other hand, we are talking about a significant decrease in the share of the shadow economy in the ukrainian economy. well, in the ukrainian economy in ukraine, yes. at the moment, according to various sources, from 32 to 40% of the ukrainian economy is in the shadow. pulls i think that now the fate of kyiv's economy is even higher but nevertheless, the task is really to reduce at least by 10-15% - these were excellent indicators developed countries have somewhere at the level of 10-12 to 15%, e fate of the shadow economy e-e

therefore, i repeat once again that it will not be possible to completely destroy it, but in order to at least overcome the absolutely normal tasks of reducing the share of the shadow economy in ukraine, first of all, you must definitely think about how to free business as much as possible from the extremely complex and incomprehensible system taxation that exists today, the more freely a business works, the less it has a desire to carry out shadowy activities and one more point that is definitely worth saying eh look when we talk about er shadow economy, then we have to understand that for a legal, that is, for any businessman, there is an alternative or to work in the shadow and bear certain er costs associated with crushing there by some law enforcement officers, let's say tax officials well , because it is impossible to do business and in general well,

not to have any relationship with the environment or let's say work legally, here is an alternative that will cost on the one hand and what will be on the other and each person calculates the opportunity cost, that is, if carrying out business in the shadows is more expensive than in the light than legally , then safely the business will work legally, eh. i would not look for any moral things in business, i would look exclusively for pragmatism, that is, as a rule, the business does what is more profitable, but if it is more profitable to work in the light, the business will be to work in the light of anti-corruption, president zelenskyi, on the eve of the european union's decision to apply for membership in the union, gave an interview to the danish mass media. denmark is one of the countries that is in favor of our absolute right to receive this the candidacy says there are questions about our

anti-corruption legislation there, in particular, and what the president said the day before. it was yesterday, mr. zelensky, there are questions in denmark about the anti-corruption infrastructure of ukraine. but i believe that these questions are because danish society is not fully informed about what happened in our country before the war and what is happening now, i think that such a developed infrastructure that works both during the war and before the war, which is in ukraine, is absent in many countries of the european union, said the ukrainian president well of course, i support zelenskyi globally. but it seems to me that here, well, i felt a little funny when i heard, and you, mykhailo, that some of the countries of the european union do not have such an anti-corruption system, what kind of infrastructure will be built in ukraine, please, and first of all, i want to express agreement with my colleague at the expense of the fact that there are countries in which the level of corruption is quite decisive and it is possible that it can be

compared with those corruption processes that are also in ukraine. such a thing, in my time, when i was interning there, one of the danish citizens said very simply, well , tax evasion is the danish national sport, that's why. in fact, i think that now the announcement of ukraine as the root of evil from the point of view of corruption is only a process the political process of the negotiations, we will say yes, that is, the countries are worried, well, from the point of view of the economy, it is ultimately normal, so what are they trying to bargain about in this situation? and the second thing is whether the infrastructure is functioning or not. we have had no head of the sab for 2 years. the term of office of the

competition commission has expired. they have not yet started this competition. well, we have an anti-corruption court, which has only put one deputy minister there so far . yuriy hrynchaka, who is also appealing there, says that he can't, he doesn't have the right to appeal, the court can't consider his sentence, which has already entered into force due to the fact that the deadline for considering this appeal has passed. the presence of a developed infrastructure does not mean that you have a good fight against corruption, you have created, we have created a sufficiently large number of institutions, the effectiveness of which is extremely low, but you know that tax evasion is also a national sport in ukraine. well, with all due respect, these are the same as the peculiarities of, let's say, society's perception of certain acts of corruption is also very

specific, look, we all loudly and very nicely condemn corruption, we want to fight it, but when in real life we ​​encounter uh options to use, what connections, opportunities to speed up the resolution of one or another issue, we are with you what are we doing, we are standing in line and waiting for our turn no, we are looking for the necessary maneuvers we are looking for opportunities to resolve the issue informally, that is, the fight against corruption begins with each person personally, that is, if the society formally declares the fight against corruption, but in reality tries to find the necessary ways, well, it is very difficult to overcome corruption, because the fight against corruption begins from every person and this also applies to people 's deputies. look at what is being done in our parliament today. look how many times the question of informal payments, let's say

rewards in envelopes for people's deputies, has been repeatedly raised. in no way, not once have we seen any serious corruption investigations, anti-corruption investigations on this matter, well, that is uh, in reality, ukraine still has something to fight for, but let's be honest, it's not only in ukraine, similar things are 100% different in different countries. and the level of which in the united states of america is different , but it is also present, so i really think that at the moment the issue is of an extremely high level of corruption in ukraine - this is more a matter of political discussions than those real facts that exist today. but, well , infrastructure i mean a little bit wrong, it's not that people are evading taxes there, that's what we have in europe and the infrastructure - these are the tools that work. yes, it's concrete. anti-corruption prosecutor, it's concrete. it's transparent.

the system that is now canceled, well, the war, but still we do not see how the money is distributed locally, in particular, we only hear about some kickbacks of 20-30%. well, i'm sorry, even the regions could not afford such kickbacks, and there is no information, no. it's clear, you see , in many countries of the world, there is no such developed anti-corruption infrastructure , nevertheless, the fight against koru is carried out quite effectively there, there are no specialized anti-corruption bodies. and how do they ask how does law enforcement work normally? the system works normally there, they work normally here, yes, there are independents here, they have great respect from society and, most importantly, trust , that is, you understand that because we created an anti-corruption court, people did not trust it anymore, that is, in this there is a very significant issue and

the selection of personnel in that courts, this is also a separate issue. and in fact, when mr. yegor asked me about the appointment of people to positions in this structure, this is also a sign of how much people will trust that structure later. despite the fact that here are the specific figures for may a-a-p mykhailo, what are your forecasts, because we have a huge budget deficit every month in may, they calculated it to be 113 billion hryvnias, so, well, this is the minimum for us, no, the southerner said just 50 , it seems so somewhere four plus billion dollars turns out, we have a budget deficit, this is just a hole , and we are now helping us, but how long will this aid last, and this aid is a credit aid, see friends well, the aid will last as long as the giver and she will want her

give accordingly and in this regard. i would not base it on some uh, te-term forecasts . well, because the degree of their risk is high, but i still want to help my colleague in terms of anti-corruption and various things, as they say. the fact is that there are legal laws and there are economic laws and we have with you a country in which, before the war, the gdp per capita was approximately $3,600 per year. well, let 60% of this go to consumption. in fact, less would be spent in this situation, and let it be the average salary in ukraine for a year i am repeating this in less than a month, in this situation, it is obvious that poverty provokes corruption, it provokes all undesirable phenomena, and believe me, there are so many here, there is no need to deal with it, it is simply necessary to raise the economic level in the

country and some of these problems will simply disappear because it will be economically unprofitable to deal with them. economic laws always begin to act, which should have been invented in administrative and legal laws, and economists also understand that the laws of the free market in this regard in actually speaking although they work for a long time, they work accordingly, but they work better when they come back, the question is with money, and ukraine will have to actually work well and actively on the capital market during the next period, that's all i can say at the level of uncertainty that exists, in fact, there is corruption." and there, uh, the courts are very strange uh, in ukraine, that's why. well, this question is possible, let

the oligarchs who were called for years on the state of ukraine, on our taxes, now drop out and cover up this hole of 5 billion dollars, see exactly the existence of such a semi-feudal system in ukraine, i would say, because you and i actually copied a lot of economic conditions that actually existed in european states 300 years ago . go through this and i repeat once again when the economy will develop, even for such large scams that from time to time become known to the whole society, they will have less opportunities to develop a large scam it always consists of low, small with a number of small ones, and if the roots of those low, small scams are cut, then the percentage at the top

will also disappear. well, in the west, corruption scandals also arise in the west, and these are mostly some very big things that happened, well, none of this. unfortunately, the economic system is not insured, thank you for the meaningful economic discussion. mykhailo kolisnyk, professor of the kyiv school of economics, oleg penzyn , economist. this hour, anna yeva, thank you for your word, colleagues. well, what else will i tell you about the most important thing, in particular, about the fact that russian criminals are considered nazi symbols