there was uh in the world, the only means left in the russian federation is blackmailing the world, intimidation, the logic of gangsterism in the 90s, when gangsters first created problems and then offered their services for money in solving this problem, that's the logic. well, the leaders from st. petersburg left security programs of the center for global studies strategy 21 e now leonid kozachenko joins the topic let's continue with him president of the ukrainian agrarian confederation vice-prime minister of ukraine 2001-2 years leonid welcome you good day. well, please, your comments on this problem of the blocking of russia, well, this is their strategy, respectively. can we count on a solution to this issue in some way

? for supporting ukraine in its fight against military aggression, and already according to un estimates, more than 40 million people on the planet have felt this russian gratitude because more than 20 million tons of grain have been blocked from us and we can't e nothing to do now in order to still put it in those places on the planet where the food crisis exists not only with the lack of food, but also with the cost of food, and this crisis has worsened .

millions of people will be affected by this action on the part of russia leonid please tell me what kind of situation we have well, it is clear that for us this is foreign exchange revenue so i will not have any and this grain is located somewhere, it must be stored somewhere is it now creating problems because new crops are already needed import and this is also a very big problem, because actually if there are elevators in sufficient quantity, then you can keep grain crops for three years from the moment they are collected, and if there are no such elevators, then they cannot lie on the street even for two months, they will be spoiled . if we talk about oil crops such as sunflower, soybean, rapeseed, then even in elevators, they

cannot be stored for more than 1.5-2 years, but now there is a problem: what to do with the new crop, where does it go? collect and where to store if according to the forecast, we will collect what we expect, although it will be significantly less than in the previous year, all the same, if we do not export the remainder, we will have nowhere to plant, well, at least 30 million tons of grain , and then the world will really be e will feel all this together with the whole world e-e salaries for this very high price , gentlemen, there is such a problem, then what is your personal recipe for what to do in this situation in the ukrainian government and ukrainian grain producers when well, there are no methods of influencing the russian federation on putin jose

borel says that this is a war crime turkey is trying to help, it doesn't bring any result. we are there. we are calling on the whole world to help unblocking the ports, and there is no result. what should we do next? well, what should we do ? the main direction is to force the creation of this green corridor on the black sea so that at least unlock three port terminals and unload at least 3 million grains every month, then you can manage to do something more or less . why is it important and why is it not necessary ? i look at the statements of russia that we cannot do it let the ships that will supposedly go for grain , they will carry weapons on their sides, but we say check, we will give you access to check every ship that will go in the direction of ukraine

in order to take grain, they say no, you will hide everything in such a way that we will not see and we will destroy all ships, the world is afraid. at the moment, we have already risen to one and a half million tons . but if we reach the three millionth mark, i will say right away that in sea ports it was more than 7 million tons, and here it is a maximum of 3 million more than the second wall of pits in europe will not be able to overload because of their the terminals are a maximum of 3 million tons. we say build these terminals urgently, they say

that they are not involved. after all, it will be more profitable for ukraine and for the whole world through the black sea, so it is open and no one can find answers to these questions . the questions are difficult, but the most basic the way is to unblock the sea terminals, if this does not happen, then we will be able to live, we will not vote, but 100 million people on the planet will feel it terribly, and we will all see it , too. therefore, the whole world must fight against the crime that russia is committing today p. leonida, what about us with the collection of a new crop, has this process already started, what can we say? yes , we have started to collect a new crop, we have already collected about a million hectares, this is mainly the southern

part of our state, even the central part already in poltava oblast they started to harvest rapeseed for the winter, they started to harvest spring crops er barley in the south and every day er the intensity of this process increases there is a problem that there is not enough fuel oops there are not enough funds to even buy it if it and at the price that is high at the moment. and this is also an important issue. they need to be solved in some way, not because in about two weeks we will have the very nose in the midst of the gathering, and we need it in a limited time because if we disrupt the gathering process, then we will lose just in the field, but even as a system, a lot of people say that it is better to leave it in the field or to still

collect it and then throw it away again, because we will not be able to export it. there is such a discussion here every day. but still, it seems to me that we need a harvest if today the planet is dying every day more than 25,000 people are starving. and this number will increase to 35 per 10,000 in six months, so i think everyone should think and collect the harvest and give it to those in need. of course , we are also in this process. the increase in the price of agricultural products in ukraine this year. what sums can we talk about, how expensive are the gardens and bread and vegetables and fruits? please give your forecast, well, basically, all experts agree that it is recognized that 30-40% of prices

will increase during year and this is due to various reasons, as i have already said, there will not be a large deficit in the domestic market, but the costs of producing these products will cause growth also in some e-e, let's say, in the types of products, we will have a deficit, first of all, milk we will not exhibit it; we do not have enough beef; we do not have enough of other types of products and they will increase in price; i would not like the price of sugar to increase because we sowed less than last year, but it is enough for the needs of the domestic market and we will have enough of it. let's resume the production of salt, too. i think that there is no need to be afraid of this, but the price is increasing. i mentioned the answers to your questions at the beginning, so

unfortunately, the war started by russia is a disaster and it is not only a problem for ukraine, but it is a problem for well, unfortunately for many ukrainian citizens and for a significant percentage , the main product for centuries is bread, bread, your forecast is how much the price can increase, please, if we talk about the domestic market, bread will not increase much in our country. i think that we we can add a maximum of 20%, but in the world it will increase significantly, namely because we are the second in the world in terms of the volume of grain exports, the first place is occupied by the united states of america, and ukraine is the second, and if we reduce this volume, it will be reduced well at least by 30 million tons, this will affect the price of these

products and the world, i emphasize, will once again experience these problems that arose after the war started by russia. what should we do with this amount of grain? maybe we can quickly switch to some productions and create added value and sell in some form eh well, we really need to deepen the processing of grain and not only the grains of many crops that we grow we sell a lot of raw materials, we can triple gross production due to deepening the processing of this raw materials bees for this we need a lot of money , for this we need about 100 billion dollars for us to reach the depth of processing that the european union has, for this it will take at least 10 years, or even more, and it is currently impossible to do all this because any agricultural a project

that concentrates investments now and the production of some liquid product attracts rockets that fly and destroy this object we have seen enterprises such as our large poultry complex with more than 20,000 t m yasa poultry was taken out and disposed of, we saw large grain elevators, we saw factories for the processing of sugar beets that were destroyed, so all this needs a little postponement at the moment. the question or the next guest to the parties is related to what to do with the products that are currently produced in the occupied territories of the

kherson region of zaporizhzhia, should the ukrainian government allow partial importation of it for sale in ukraine to the controlled territories or should it be an economic blockade already as a politician asks you, but briefly you know this issue is quite difficult, we turned our activities because they sowed, they need to take care and collect now these farmers are accused that they grew it for the enemy and there are many questions here it is difficult to find an answer. and you seem to me that harvesting in any case and vacating these territories and selling this grain to us is no other way. thank you mr. leonid kozachenko, president vice prime minister of ukraine for agrarian affairs of the ukrainian agrarian confederation in 2001-2, we continue to talk about prices with oleg

, a retired economist. that prices will increase by about 30-40%. well, for bread, the least is up to 20, but in principle, well, almost half as much, and for beef, they are expected to be in short supply according to the forecasts of leonid kozachenko, no, look, we are with you let's talk about what, well, first of all, yes, i understand that the borscht set at the moment is really more expensive than last year, because let's remember that, as a rule, we have morning vegetables from the south of ukraine, which today is in the combat zone from the kherson region, that is, unequivocally they did not come, they were replaced by imports, and this seriously raised prices, but now, in my opinion, the situation is improving, because

products from our region from open ground are starting to enter the market, that is, the total volume the supply will be large enough and i think that the prices at least for the borscht set will stop and even we will see their rollback a little, that is, i would not be here because of our vegetables and fruits , those that grow in our region are so critical when we are talking to you about other types of food, then here. there are probably certain grounds for believing that the prices will continue to rise. look, as soon as the exports of ukraine are opened, as soon as the black sea is opened and ukrainian grain will go abroad, then we will probably see a small increase in grain prices in ukraine why because at the moment the difference between the prices of the domestic and foreign markets is almost two times and

actually, as soon as exports are opened in our country, the domestic market will begin to equalize with the foreign market the external one will tighten up and start to fall a little because our exports will go there, the amount that today is exported through the western border through constance itself, there 50,000 tons of dry cargo left. affects the actual balancing of prices, this is not enough, we are talking about millions of tons, not about that. meat because well, we have to understand that grains are the basis of animal feeding, so in this situation, there is probably some sense of speaking, but in general, i repeat once again, we expect a harvest of 50 million tons this year

that is, there will be no current deficit like this people have become poorer, indeed ukraine has lost about 4.8 million jobs in 100 days of war, that is, people have lost their jobs, people have lost their incomes, yes, it is true today, and the consumer basket of a ukrainian has sharply decreased, and the price for it has increased, the share of household spending on the consumer basket grew if it was 42% before vinnytsia, now it is more than 50, well, that is, we have, you understand what it is, but i repeat once again there will be no shortage, and at least according to the borscht set, for sure, in the summer months we will see stabilization, even a small decrease in its price i.e. ukrainians pay more than 50% of their income for food, that's right, family income, yes, and there's also 30 percent interest. they pay for the utility bill, that's how we live and eat and everything, in principle, more money for nothing.

we currently don't have enough medicine. there's still well , that is, well, unfortunately, at the moment , er, the war does not do much for anyone. well, let's be sober and let's talk about the fact that today the real income of ukrainians has fallen quite seriously and er, even the national bank predicts 20% inflation, this despite the fact that uh, the price for gas for the population 799, the government left it unchanged for next year. that is, inflation there will formally be equal to zero, that is, the main mass, and what is driving inflation today is the consumer basket, er, according to our calculations, the consumer basket is off by about 30%. at the moment, the leaders definitely have vegetables. cabbage has grown very much in price. carrots have grown very much. at the same time, i repeat once again, the borscht set should stop . actually, at the price in the summer months, at the same time,

look at eggs . today are practically cheaper than last year this is the only product that became cheaper simply due to objective reasons, i.e. it is warm, it has become warm, sun, let's see how much eggs will cost in december, when the business will be forced to turn on the gas to heat the chickens that lay the eggs, the reason is a little different, see eh we are a big enough exporter of eggs and chicken to europe and not only to europe, but we also ship to different countries. exports have closed. and you won't ask the chickens to stop laying, they lay as you thought, that is, even when leaving from the fact that we have losses in poultry farms , the total volume of supply on the market is such that it significantly exceeds demand and, as a result, prices fall because, well, you don't hide eggs in the refrigerator and you don't put the pourer so that they lie down, right ? is a

perishable product, therefore, objectively, today we have an overproduction of eggs, which has led to the fact that their prices are low, but all the last ones. unfortunately, it has grown very seriously, that is, after all, about kerosene, you said there about a discounted price there for everyone, how much is it there from the bottom for us, we will pay anyway, well, we will pay the difference with our taxes, that’s right, no one will pay uncle sam to us for this price difference until the market is on the market, the help will be. and now how much he will pay for 1000 cubic meters of gas, the population understands and how much this increase will affect the price of everything we buy in the store, please, look, today in europe the price is not extremely high, more than one and a half thousand dollars per 1,000 m³ is very expensive, but there is a

specific point that must be understood, which means that ukraine consumed about 28-29 billion cubic meters of gas every year in ukraine, its own production is about 20-21 billion, ukrainian production produced about 13-14, which means that for the population of those 13 -14 is quite enough for communal services, this surplus between domestic production and e-e import of gas was consumed by ukrainian industry due to the fact that today the aggressor hit ukraine's economic potential very hard, the total volume gas consumption by ukrainian industry has fallen significantly, therefore, in this situation, it is necessary to understand that ukraine will not consume 28-29 billion cubic meters, it will consume less. that is, we will practically have a difference between domestic consumption and

domestic production of 2-3 billion cubic meters of gas, and in this situation of purchasing 2-3 billion cubic meters of gas, it will not significantly change the situation on the domestic market, so i think that domestic prices can theoretically be lower than the import prices at which we will purchase gas, so there is i hope that we will not pay much from our own pockets. i do not agree with you. he stated that ukraine needs to purchase about 8 billion p. vitrenko uses pre-war figures, when all those things were consumed by ukrainian metallurgy and ukrainian chemistry, when ukrainian enterprises were sufficiently active in it's a pity today , uh, the whole course of ukraine is in flames. i continued, sir, i made a little mistake for 8 billion dollars. but nevertheless, it's the same if brothers, at current prices, 8 billion dollars can buy more gas than 2 billion cubic meters

in any case, look at the approximate figures that we used from your calculations: 8 billion dollars at one and a half thousand dollars, a cubic billion , well, that is, plus or minus, let's see, look, the war is not over yet. well, here we are with you. excuse me , but let's calculate how it will be, what it will be, it is not understood whether it is realistic in what state the ukrainian economy will be at the end of hostilities, already at the moment we see huge problems, look at the month of may, the ukrainian budget used 250 billion dollars of expenses in fact income of 83 billion, the difference, that is, in fact, a deficit of 5 billion dollars, which was partly received from uncle sam , about whom we just mentioned, well, i would say that, uh, integral uncle sam, because there are also

european countries, americans. well, uh, i just want to remind that at the beginning of the war, the national bank of ukraine has already printed uah 190 billion. well, how does it look? the ministry of finance auctions war bonds and the national bank buys them under normal conditions. similar things happen, but we understand that this is unsecured money that is thrown into the economy of ukraine, they are understood prices that have already increased this is a consequence of these processes from the consequences this is one of the consequences of the emission that we are talking about now, that is, more more bonds will be printed, these will be thrown away , the prices will still rise, well, the less we will be able to attract funds from our partners, the less the international monetary fund will help us, the world

bank, the less people and banking institutions and natural persons and legal entities will buy war bonds with their own money, especially since the national bank of ukraine will cover this difference between actual needs and tax receipts. that is why it is so important today to return at least part of the taxes, well, at least on the critical imports that enter ukraine today, that is, from this point point of view, i believe that this is the right decision . yes, it may be a somewhat fantastic question, but which branch of the economy in the conditions of war should become the locomotive for exiting the crisis, at least that's e filling the budget so that we don't earn a third of what we spend, collect taxes, and at least half there, 60 more, more than half. is it only import taxation, is it possible to count on something here inside the country, i ask, for production."

the economy is probably in those situations that will be the gram sector, who is not talking about it now. whoever is talking about some high technologies today , we will have to survive after the end of the war, and this direct survival for today will be provided by the agricultural sector, provided by a simple farmer who will grow products, sell them on the foreign market, these are foreign exchange earnings. probably, this will be really uh, uh, that is really necessary, uh, nutritious moment, which is necessary for the state. well, definitely. i have

hope that the ukrainian metallurgy will continue to work and those enterprises that will continue to work today are located in the west of central ukraine, which did not fall into the war zone and will be working to pay taxes , because it is really 83 billion with actual expenses of 250 , this is extremely little. and this is a catastrophic thing that needs significant changes, i'm sorry for the tax policy in the state. maybe some industry will jump forward. well, i optimistically hoped that if we have such a quantity of grain blocked, then maybe we will start to process it more there, make flour, make pasta of some kind and sell it yes, there will be jobs, for example, in those territories that are safer, eh. the main question that rests on all such things is where to get investments, well, no conscious investor will come to the country at a time when military operations are going on here, right?

we understand that in the state, at the moment, there are no funds for investment, mr. shmygel announced six directions, six programs that should raise the economy of ukraine, but each of those six programs has a the main question is where will the funds for financing and those for financing re-equipment to finance development come from of these or other industries, it's great, it's good, but we have to understand that there must be serious funds that come into the country and that will be greater than our current needs, that is, in this situation for the time being, i think that for the period of the war, with such an insane deficit of the state budget, it is hardly worth waiting for us to be able to finance some areas and make a more in-depth reworking , all the more. let's be honest, we don't do such things very quickly. i still hope that the war will be over by this time. thank you, mr. olezh, we also

have the same hope together with you. we really hope that the economist oleg penzin, as always, is factual and professional. we were relevant with you this morning ihor chechorinda ivana valevska for the last five hours together we talked with you on the espresso channel thank you for participating stay with us visit us on all social networks youtube facebook there like it support us if you have not signed the petition for return channel espresso broadcasting t2 definitely do it support the ukrainian view of the world the war in ukraine is the main topic for ukrainians victory and loss analysis and forecasts politics and geopolitics about all this serhii rudenko and the guests of his program will speak. people who have information and shape public opinion. people who defend ukraine and

create the future. the main and interesting thing in the program is the verdict. serhii rudenko from monday to thursday at 13:00, repeat at 21:30. warsaw is a very beautiful city, but kyiv is more beautiful for me. one day my country was attacked by russia, but we were lucky and my mother and i went to poland . i like poland, but i want to return home. i have water, i have a lot of friends in kindergarten, i am very i want to go home and i will return soon i will return i will return i will return i will return i will return i will return i will return i will return i will return ukraine