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the verdict program my name is serhii rudenko good day and good health to all today is the 18th day of ukrainian resistance to the russian occupation, the enemy continues to attack the positions of the ukrainian military in luhansk region and donetsk region, the ukrainian authorities say that the current week will be decisive for russia's efforts to seize north donetsk, where russian troops will try to seize the nitrogen plant and end the encirclement . volodymyr zelenskyi says that the russians are gathering forces to attack kharkiv, the enemy continues to shell the city, and yesterday the russians shelled odesa with missiles for three hours 14 rockets were fired in the odesa region, at the same time the russian occupiers continue to lose life force in the last day, approximately 300 occupiers were killed, the most in the bakhmut region

and the avdiiv direction, in general, by the beginning of the great war, the russians had already lost in ukraine almost 34,000,100 people, 1,496 tanks, 3,606 armored combat vehicles , 752 artillery systems, 239 multiple-launch rocket systems, 98 anti-aircraft defenses, 216 aircraft, 171 helicopters, 2,527 units of motor vehicles, 14 ships, 137 winged boats missiles, 611 drones, 59 units of special equipment, about the situation on the eastern and southern fronts of ukraine, the conflict between russia and lithuania, which has already turned into a new war between moscow and we will talk about how further events in eastern europe will develop. today we will talk with the

writer, military expert, director of the center for research of the army, conversion and disarmament , valentin batrak. congratulations to ukraine, mr. valentina. i am glad to see you on our air. thank you for joining our telethon. thank you, mr. serhiy, the hero. to discuss those mentioned by so the russian occupiers continue to iron donetsk and luhansk regions and heavy battles are now in north donetsk lysychansk and along the entire front line in the east of the country russian sources indicate that vladimir putin has ordered his troops to complete the capture of luhansk region by june 26. how do you assess such prospects and why exactly on june 26, what should happen if you know, of course, because we know that putin

is prone to some kind of symbolism or timing to some dates, but on june 26, i looked at the calendar and there are no dates that indicated that the russians were celebrating the capture of the luhansk region. in order to er define guidelines for the army, this is always er, well, it is always done for any actions when they are acting, they try to implement the system, implement it systematically, and in general, about the battle for donbas, you can just say that it is er russia the kremlin treats it as a systematic work against ukraine, and we really see signs of such a system here, this can be said starting with the management of the troops despite the removal of those generals and

the disappearance of general gerasim there and then dvornikov. but despite this, there are certain conclusions from previous defeats, russian generals and it is required to manage the troops somehow in the tournament, the same goes for environmentalism , logistics is more or less smooth and we can see it from the various appearances of the new, well, the new is in quotation marks conditionally because it is more of the old soviet equipment, but it is in itself but it is not that it is coming and it is coming, in particular, even tonight , insider sources say that about 80

tanks were sent to mars at night on the izub wild raisin, and this just confirms it the words about which it was said that we can expect in the coming days, perhaps even such a powerful trench and perhaps from several directions, because the work on the belarusian border has intensified again, the belarusians themselves can now be drawn in there. now there are about seven battalions, or perhaps battalions of groups and what readiness to cross the border. it is difficult to say how ready it is psychologically, because psychologically, morally, the capital state of the belarusian army is not the best, and there is no desire there at all there is no, they only say about 3% of the support of the

security forces for such a decision, but under the conditions of the presence of a large number of russian troops on the territory of belarus, it is hardly possible to expect internal resistance to such an army, which , as the president of belarus lukashenko had actually declared, could actually destroy, although before this, it actually goes directly to our territory, so it is not surprising that today there was information from the american institute of war research, which notes that this particular week may be decisive in the north donets direction that is, we are talking about luhansk and donetsk regions. it is here that very powerful hostilities will take place, and it is possible that the involvement of

belarus will have a purely political nature and will not have any such military consequences, but should simply distract some forces er, the ukrainian s- of the ukrainian army to count on such a situation. we see it not only in the belarusian direction, we also see it in the chernihiv and sumy directions, because the russians brought up missile complexes there in the bryansk region and also we know that chernihiv oblast is also being actively shelled and sumy oblast is being shelled from the belgorod iskur oblast. our territory is being shelled very actively. of course, this works for the east, because on the eastern front the russians want to win some kind of victory, but this does not allow our troops to regroup and redeploy troops to the east

because if we were sure that more than a thousand kilometers of the common border with belarus are under our control and we are not waiting for some new attack, perhaps history and the situation on the eastern front developed in a completely different way. yes, i, in principle, support this opinion and agree that now there may be various maneuvers, including perhaps even from the sea area there may be some uh, well, attempts. i think that there may be attempts of real amphibious assaults - assault-assault operations and now a but some kind of imitation in order to distract er-er to carry out some maneuvers in principle can be from the other side. i want to say that the ukrainian army continues to demonstrate the ability to creative

asymmetric actions and the selection of asymmetric targets that it also happens because of the confusion of the russian leadership, for example, such a blow as on the vyf curling iron, yes, this is one of the episodes that shows that the ukrainian defenders still manage to take such unexpected steps for the enemy, which are effective. and this is very it is important and even more important. it seems to me that it is the morale and fighting spirit, because i did not talk about such russian achievements in the management and logistics system, but there the morale and fighting spirit of the russian army is very low, and even under the conditions that putin manages to carry out hidden mobilization even under these conditions is to say that there is a qualitative change, that is, the infusion of new blood into the russian army. i would not say so, because

in general, this is very problematic . the morale and fighting spirit of the army itself and the ukrainian society is impressive because today the results of the poll show that 100% of ukrainians said that they are confident in the victory of ukraine. this is very important because it mobilizes not only soldiers, officers, generals. and this mobilizes volunteers in this, mobilizes activists and mobilizes society in general, which works for ukraine, and here it is definitely that we are now facing a huge problem, namely the activation of russian architectural networks, and it

is not without reason that today there was the cabinet of traitors, but i am not only talking about this and not so much about this . spent global money on this, and ukraine, of course, could not compete here, and that’s understandable. especially since there was a certain period of such appeasement. and yeltsin’s and what a period it was. and that’s what we have now. we have now. if you take europe, look at it. in my opinion, i believe that the global situation in order to win this war

is to achieve such a level of understanding of this war on the part of the western community, on the part of those 47 or maybe 50 countries that are in within the framework of rammstein is going to actually say the war will achieve victory then when putin's regime itself will be completely destroyed and demolished and so that the political system in russia is changed, changed and the criminal regime is eliminated, but today, once again, a survey has appeared that is quite interesting in my opinion, which shows that in the eu it was conducted somewhere in the eu in all countries and there, the results are such that 20% of the people surveyed believe that the achievement is that only the defeat of putin will bring peace, and the defeat of putin - we immediately understand

in parentheses that this means the overthrow of putin's regime , that is, in fact, we see that quite a bit people only one-fifth of western society believes that the overthrow of putin's regime is necessary, and here we understand now that the front is not only where the clash takes place, but it is also where the change in mental acceptance of ukraine and this war takes place. we can realize 100% the advice that we still have 10 years ago. that's why nato specialists gave us what to work, only how they work for us now . to work with societies with diasporas with various influential groups with the same

journalists, scientists, and so on in order to change public opinion, public opinion about ukraine, about the threat of russia in this war, yes, you are right, because in fact there is a very a big crooked mirror in which ukraine and russian propaganda look. by the way, it is gaining great success abroad because i during the last two months, i quite actively communicated with portuguese, dutch, spanish and italian journalists asked a lot of different questions, frankly speaking, which confused me, for example, about whether there is a fascist organization of the regiment at all or whether the azov people are nazis. and it can be seen that by this firmware that russian propaganda is doing in the west, it is

achieving its goal even among journalists, they speaking of the audience for which they work, but even among journalists, because if my journalists are asked about the azov regiment as pro-fascist, it means that even at the level of those who has the opinion and er is this russian firmware for er these spies that you mentioned today really took people who worked for russia about this the sbu reports in the department stated that fsb agents introduced intelligence subversive activities in the authorities were taken according to the head of the secretariat of the cabinet of ministers and the head of one of the directorates of the chamber of commerce and industry , these people, with the approval of the sbu, received from two to 15 thousand dollars for assignments from the federal security service to detainees already

were informed about the suspicion of treason just a few days ago, mr. valentin, the ukrainian side made a decision to introduce the visa regime of the russian federation. are you a supporter of the visa regime from the russian federation or a temporary ban on the entry of citizens of both the russian federation and the republic of belarus into the territory of ukraine ? a complete ban should be considered here, because, uh, we can uh, have a situation when uh, first of all, uh, it could be in russian dissidents, for example, it could be people who do not support the regime that they would like to the overthrow of this regime and uh, even at the beginning of the war in 14-15 years uh, we were convinced for some reason, probably

wrongly convinced, that we should actively work with russian society, but uh, our uh, ours will say so, our actions and analytics are ours their convictions were supported only partially by the fact that you can really find among the russians those who will be able to form the future resistance. unfortunately, both the propaganda machine and the repressive machine in russia work very powerfully, we did not expect such encapsulation of the russian society and er, you demonstrated at the beginning the number of russians who died, i want to use this example to say something because more than 34,000 were demonstrated. yes, what died of russian er soldiers? and when we studied the

situation at the beginning of the 14th year we were convinced that in prague, if russia gets up to 50-60,000 killed here on the territory of ukraine, in fact, this will mean internal outbreaks and internal reactions of society are very powerful, and what's more, i will say that we talked with the generals the day before i would say to our experienced military men in 2021 at the end of 2022 and they were convinced that now the world is very global and it is not even necessary for 50-60 thousand people to be killed, but 56,000 is enough killed and

russian society will react and what we see, we see that the number is confidently considered up to 50,000, and there is no reaction from russian society, er , that is, this encapsulation of russia has now reached such a level that i will not be surprised that even after 100,000 russians killed, nothing won't change and that's it a cardinal situation is necessary. actually , the liquidation of the top leadership and putin himself is necessary in order for some cardinal fundamental changes to take place in the suma such in the mentality of the russian society because it is ossified today, it is inflexible and it is what it is today well, he doesn’t want to change and he doesn’t want to understand and reach the truth, but in the end there are

isolated cases when russians actually go to another camp, we know that we already have a unit of such formed russians what uh, he reacts quite reactively to this putin thing, why uh, and uh, he wants russia to be renewed. actually , there are many students of new russia who believe that what is in russia now is not russia, but it is something like that, some kind of tumor, uh, uh has displaced healthy cells and is now defeating them, that's why, in fact, this er-er surgical er-er in the possibility of such an er-er creation of such a situation, when this

tumor is removed, it will lead well, not immediately, definitely p valentin, i actually wanted to clarify about this you told putin about the elimination of the tumor the highest leadership of the russian federation is clear that it is not about the actions of the ukrainian special services or not only about the actions of the ukrainian special services, it is about the security of the whole world and about the consolidation of all forces - this consolidated decision should be the main players of the world about what the lower leadership of the russian federation burdens the whole world and they behave like gopniks and they have no right to it and they must be stopped by you as a military man and when you talk about the liquidation of the top political leadership of the military-political leadership of russia possible in what way can this really happen if we

believe that the western world would have consolidated solutions, then it could er succeed in ukraine, but there may be a third one. now i will try to tell you what i think about it, and the first scenario is the supporters of the united states, well, it is the united states, the united states directly , the biden administration, and the government - it is johnson's, in britain, it is... e supporters of e-e regime putin must be overthrown and for this ukraine must be given all possible stories in order to make it happen so that er ukraine defeats russia in the war

on the battlefield er and after that actually er putin who will be defeated er and who will not be able to go to capitulation, he will be eliminated, and this is the most logical, the most logical scenario, but the problem is that the supporters of the second scenario and the most powerful, of course, are the leaders of such countries as france germany and italy, i.e., macron, are the dignitaries who visited kyiv recently who do not even consider the possibility of overthrowing the regime, who want putin to save face, and so

on . and so on. at one time, the chief military officer of the united states hinted, namely general mark milley, who is the head of the joint chiefs of staff of the united states of america, and why this is happening because this is the supporter of the second scenario they believe that russia must be pressured very, very carefully on the edge of the survival of ukraine itself, and that is why they block the supply of weapons to us or slow down or provide these mirror weapons, that is, precisely those that exist in russia, so that ukraine does not fall, but is also unable to advance, although it was unable to make further progress these supporters of counter-petroleum,

they are ready to protect putin, but of course he is ready to protect them, well, how can you say putin himself is of no use to them the main thing is that changes in russia if they happen or they don’t happen at all or they took place in such an objective, very careful manner, if there was a replacement of the head of russia and yet another thing. and when, for example, the same schultz says, er, in that kiev, let's have putin putin. we call on you to withdraw the troops and sit down at the negotiating table, what is he saying when he says that, in fact, he is saying that let putin stay and let us talk to him? yes, this is

actually a destructive position, which only somewhere in some 5-10% can predict that ukraine will win and ukraine will force the regime putin to be actually liquidated well, finally, the third scenario that could be in fact is when the powerful special services are powerful, let's say experts in such operations could carry out the same operation, let's say, how does he like it to do putin i mean from poisoning to some uh unfortunate accident to what other such situation when uh an unexpected event occurs regarding putin's management for example just like let's say in bin laden's sambo it was

accompanied there let's say it was a sniper some kind of shot well, there are definitely less opportunities here, but it seems to me that if the operation was successful, then it could be so, but the problem is that even in the biden administration they do not want this, because they understand that, they care about what their what what scares them is the situation when the elimination of putin can cause such a chain reaction and there will be a lot of unexpected things, including the collapse of russia, including the uncontrolled, lack of control over nuclear weapons, and realizing that there is a lot there is the united states has enemies, including those close to russia, starting with

north korea and iran and ending with china, which is only verbally loyal but in principle pro-russian and with a pro-russian position right now. in principle, it is for the united states that even the biden administration is inclined to positions of general mark mili to give ukraine something, but to give slowly , to provide er from time to time, to fill in support, but to do in the end, yes, there is such a game, during which to allow er to lose er control over what may happen in russia in the event that er there is an overthrow, why is the road on er exactly for that reason