34,100 people, 1,496 tanks, 3,606 armored combat vehicles , 752 artillery systems, 239 rocket launchers, 98 anti-aircraft defense systems, 216 aircraft, 181 helicopters, 2,527 units of motor vehicles, 14 boats, 137 cruise missiles, 611 drones, 59 units of special equipment, about the situation on the eastern and southern fronts ukraine, russia's conflict with lithuania, which has already turned into a new moscow war, and how further events in eastern europe will develop. we will talk today with a writer, a military expert, the director of the army conversion and disarmament research center, valentin badriak, glory to ukraine, valentin,

glad to see you on our air thank you for joining our telethon, thank you mr. serhiy, glory to the heroes is ready to cooperate and discuss the mentioned ones so, the russian occupiers continue to iron donetsk and luhansk regions and heavy fighting now in north donetsk lysychansk and across the front line in the east of the country, russian sources indicate that vladimir putin ordered to his troops to complete the capture of luhansk region by june 26. how do you assess such prospects and why exactly on june 26, what should happen if you know, of course, because we know that putin is inclined to some certain symbolism or to confining himself to some dates, but on june 26 he looked at there are no dates on the calendar that indicated that the russians celebrated the capture of the

luhansk region, if this is possible. it seems to me that here putin is simply chopping up different dates, so to speak, in order to, uh, determine the guidelines for the army. always er, well, it is always done for any actions, when they act, they try to implement the system systematically, and in general, we can just say about the battle for donbas that, er, russia, the kremlin treats it as a systematic work against ukraine, and we are here we can really see signs of such a system, it can be said that starting with the management of the troops , despite the removal of those generals, the disappearance of general gerasim, then dvornikov, but despite this, there are certain

conclusions from previous defeats, russian generals and he is trying to manage somehow in the book on the management of troops , the same goes for this pro-logistics, the logistics are more or less so seamless and we can see it from the various appearances of the new, well, the new is in quotation marks conditionally because it is more of the old soviet equipment , but it is in this bi- it is still no, but it is coming and coming, in particular, even tonight, insider sources say that about 80 tanks were sent to the raisin side of the raisin at night on mars, and this just confirms the words that were said about what can be expected in the coming days.

perhaps even such a powerful trench, and perhaps from several directions, because the work on the belarusian border has intensified again, the belarusians themselves can now be dragged there. now there are about seven battalions, or perhaps battalions of groups a that are ready to cross the border. how ready it is psychologically difficult to say because the psychological and moral condition of the belarusian army in the capital is not the best, and there is no desire there at all, they only say about 3% of the support of the security forces for such a decision, but under the conditions of being on the territory in belarus, a large number of russian troops

can hardly be expected to have internal resistance to such an army, which, as the president of belarus lukashenko had actually declared, could actually destroy . of the american institute of war research, which notes that this particular week can be decisive in the north donetsk direction, that is, it is precisely about luhansk and donetsk regions. very powerful hostilities will unfold and it is possible that the involvement of belarus will have a purely political nature and will not have any such military

consequences, but will simply divert some a-a forces of the ukrainian army from what to calculate for such a situation. we see it not only in the belarusian direction, we also see it in the chernihiv and sumy directions because the russians brought up missile complexes there in the bryansk region, and we also know that the chernihiv region is also actively shelled and the sumy region there from the belgorod iskur region, the shelling of our territory is very active. this, of course , works in the east, because on the eastern front the russians want to win some kind of victory, but this does not allow our troops to regroup and transfer troops to the east, because if we were sure that more than a thousand kilometers of the common border with belarus are

under our control and we are not waiting for any new attack, it is possible that history and the situation on the eastern front would have developed in a completely different way, so i am in in principle, i support this opinion and agree that now there may be various maneuvers, including perhaps even from the sea area there may be some er , well, attempts in order to distract eh to carry out some maneuvers, in principle, it can be from the other side. i want to say that the ukrainian army continues to demonstrate the ability to creative asymmetric actions and the selection of asymmetric targets, which also happens because of the confusion of eh russian leadership for example, such a blow as in the vyfsk curling iron, yes, this is

one of the episodes that shows that the ukrainian defenders still manage to take such unexpected steps for the enemy, which are effective . and this is very important, even more important. morale, because i did not talk about such russian achievements in the system of management and logistics, but there, the morale of the russian army is very low, and even under the conditions that putin manages to carry out covert mobilization, even under these conditions, it can be said that there is a qualitative change, that is, the infusion of new blood into the russian army. i would not say so, because in general, this is very problematic, very problematic, the situation with the army, as far as

ukraine is concerned, is the opposite, not only the moral fighting spirit of the army itself, but also of ukrainian society it is impressive because today the results of the survey where 100% of ukrainians said that they are confident in the victory of ukraine is very important because it mobilizes not only soldiers, officers, generals, but it also mobilizes volunteers in this mobilizes activists and mobilizes society in general, which works for ukraine, and here it is certain that we are now facing a huge problem, namely the activation of russian architectural networks, and it is not without reason that today there were captured traitors in the cabinet of ministers but i'm not only talking about this and not so much about

this, i'm talking about the fact that uh, first, uh, the existence of a new world, then when the soviet union collapsed , russia parked its ambitions in the field of special services, uh, the ambitions, actually, of the soviet union and spent global money on this, and ukraine, of course, could not compete here, and this is understandable. moreover , there was a certain period of such appeasement. and yeltsin’s and such a period, and this is what we have. now we have now, if we take europe, then look at my view i believe that the global situation in order to win this war is to achieve such a level of understanding of this war on the part of the western community on the part of those

47 or maybe 50 countries that rammstein is going to that, strictly speaking, the war will achieve victory then when putin's regime itself will be destroyed and demolished and so that the political system in russia will be changed and the criminal regime will be eliminated, but today, once again, a poll appeared that is quite interesting in my opinion, which shows that in the eu, well, it was conducted somewhere in the eu in all kinds of countries and there, the results are such that 20% of the people surveyed believe that it is an achievement that only the defeat of putin will be peace and the defeat of putin - we immediately understand in parentheses that this means the overthrow of the putin regime, that is, in fact, we see which is quite small

people, only one-fifth of western society believes that the overthrow of putin's regime is necessary, and here we understand now that the front is not only where the clash takes place, but it is also where the change in the mental and emotional acceptance of ukraine and this war takes place that's why now only we can realize 100% the advice that nato experts gave us 10 years ago to work like this how we now work with this gauman tugavament yes eh that means work it's with governments with governments and also this is a site and here is a site that is, we have to work e societies with diasporas with various influential groups with the same journalists , scientists, and so on in order to change public opinion, public opinion about ukraine, about the

threat of russia in this war, yes, you say everything correctly, because in fact there is a very large distorted a mirror in which ukraine and russian propaganda look. by the way, it is gaining great success abroad because i have been quite actively communicating with portuguese, dutch, spanish and italian journalists asked a lot of different questions, frankly speaking, which confused me, for example, about whether there is a fascist organization in the regiment at all, or whether the azov people are nazis. and it can be seen that this firmware , which russian propaganda is doing in the west, is achieving its goal. goals, even among journalists, they speak of the audience for which they work, but even among journalists, because if journalists are asked about the azov regiment as

pro-fascist, it means that even at the level of those who formed the opinion and er there is this er russian firmware regarding er these spies that you mentioned er today took really er people who worked for russia about this the sbu reports in the department stated that fsb agents introduced intelligence subversive activities in the authorities the head of the secretariat of the cabinet of ministers and the head of one of the directorates of the chamber of commerce were caught red-handed, as they say. suspicion of treason just a few days ago, mr. valentin, the ukrainian side made a decision to introduce the visa regime of the

russian federation. are you a supporter of the visa regime with the russian federation or a temporary ban on the entry of citizens of both the russian federation and the republic of belarus into the territory of ukraine, a complete ban here we need to consider er because er we can er have a situation when first of all it can be in russian dissidents, for example, it can be people who do not support the regime that we would like to overthrow this regime and uh, even at the beginning of the war in the 14th in the 15th years we will

say yes, our actions and analytics are our convictions , they were supported only partially by the fact that you can really find among the russians people who can form the future resistance. unfortunately, both the propaganda machine and the repressive machine in russia work very powerfully. we did not expect this encapsulation of russian society, and you demonstrated at the beginning the number of russians who died, i want to use this example to say something because more than 34,000 were demonstrated. yes , what died of russian soldiers? and when we studied at the beginning of the 14th year the situation we were convinced that

in prague, if russia gets up to 50-60,000 killed here on the territory of ukraine, then in fact it will mean internal outbreaks and such internal reactions of society are very powerful, and what's more, i will say that we talked with the generals the day before very i would say to our experienced military men in 2021 at the end of 2022 and they were convinced that now the world is very global and it is not even necessary for 50-60 thousand people to be killed and it is enough 56 000 killed and the society of russia will react and what we see we see that the figure is considered to be up to 50,000 and

there is no reaction from the russian society, that is, this encapsulation of russia has now reached such a level that i will not be surprised that even after 100,000 russians killed nothing will change and so what a cardinal situation is necessary. actually , the liquidation of the top leadership and putin himself is necessary in order for some fundamental fundamental changes to take place in the mentality of russian society, because it is rigid today, it is inflexible and it is what it is today. well does not want to change and does not want to understand and reach the truth, but in the end there are isolated cases when russians actually

transfer to another camp, we know that we already have a unit of such formed russians that uh, he reacts quite reactively to this putin thing, why uh, and uh, he wants russia to be renewed. actually, there are many students of new russia who believe that what is in russia now is not russia, but it is something like that, some kind of tumor it has displaced healthy cells and it is now defeating them, that is why, in fact, this uh-uh surgical procedure is a possibility of such a uh-uh creation of such a situation

when this tumor is removed, it will lead. they said putin, the top leadership of the russian federation is clear why it is not about the actions of the ukrainian special services or not only about the actions of the ukrainian special services, it is about the security of the whole world and about the consolidation of all forces - this consolidated decision should be the main players of the world that the lower leadership of the russian federation burdens everything of the world and they behave like goblin and they have no right to it and they must be stopped by you as a military man and when you talk about the liquidation of the top political leadership the military and political leadership of russia is possible in what way it can happen, really if we believe that the western world would have consolidated solutions, then it could

succeed both scenarios are not very favorable for ukraine, but there may be a third one. now i will try to tell you what i think about it, and the first scenario is the supporters of the united states, well, it is the united states, the united states directly , the biden administration and the government - it is johnson's britain is er supporters of the overthrow of putin's regime and for this ukraine needs to be given all possible stories in order to make it happen so that er ukraine defeats russia in the war on the battlefield er and after that actually er putin , who will be defeated and who will not be able to

surrender, he will be eliminated, and this is the most logical, the most logical scenario, but the problem is that the supporters of the second scenario, and the most powerful, of course, are the leaders countries such as france, germany, and italy, that is macron, something, dear, who visited kyiv recently, who do not even consider the possibility of overthrowing the regime, who want putin to save face, etc. and so on, it is interesting that in such situations, if ukraine had to compromise with its territories, even in the united states , this was once hinted at by the chief military

officer of the united states, namely general mark milley, who is the head of the joint chiefs of staff of the united states of america, and why is this happening because this is supporters of the second scenario believe that russia must be pressured very, very carefully on the edge of the survival of ukraine itself, and that is why they block the supply of weapons to us or slow down or provide mirror weapons, that is, precisely those that exist in russia, so that ukraine does not fall but is also unable to to advance, although she was unable to carry out a counteroffensive, these supporters are , in relation to putin, they are ready to protect her, but of course he is to them, well, how can i tell them that putin himself is of no use to

them. the main thing is that changes in russia, if they will take place or they did not take place at all or they took place in such a volume and in a very careful way, if there was a replacement of the head of russia and still another. we call on you to withdraw the troops and sit down at the negotiating table. what is he saying when he says that? in fact, he is saying that let putin stay and let us talk to him . % e can assume that ukraine will win and ukraine will force

putin's regime to be actually liquidated well, finally, the third scenario that could actually be is when powerful special services, let's say specialists in such operations could carry out such and such let's say the operation itself. how uh, hmm, putin likes to do that. i mean, from poisoning to some uh, unfortunate accident, to what other situation when uh, an unexpected event occurs , regarding, for example, the promotion of putin, as well as, let's say, in self-righteousness accompanied there let's say that it was a sniper shot of some kind. well , there are definitely fewer opportunities here. but it

seems to me that if the operation was successful, then it could be so, but the problem is that even the biden administration does not want this, because they understand it. they care about what scares them is the situation when the elimination of putin can cause such a chain reaction and there will be a lot of unexpected things, including the collapse of russia, including the uncontrolled, lack of control over with nuclear weapons and understanding that the united states has many enemies, including those close to russia, starting with north korea and iran, and ending with china, which is loyal only in words and pro-russian in principle with a pro

-russian position right now, in principle , for the united states, even the biden administration is leaning towards the position of general milli to give ukraine something, but to give it slowly , to give it from time to time, to fill in support, but to do it in the end. such a game, during which it is still not allowed to lose control over what may happen in russia in the event that the pue regime is overthrown there, that is exactly why ukraine receives not er 40 , let's say er, fifty highmers salvo rocket systems, but only four and er promise

to receive 8 units later. that is, i use such an example. i want to demonstrate that actually, er, a palliative er position regarding saturation ukraine is not a powerful weapon . and finally, by the way, valentin forgive me for interrupting you, a similar story happened with the collapse of the soviet union. we well remember how the united states of america worried about the nuclear potential of the soviet union eventually moving on and not disintegrating into other countries that were formed on on the basis of the soviet union , including ukraine, gained independence. we remember how mr. bush sr. flew to kyiv and convinced the ukrainian leadership that ukraine's independence was possible, and not at this time. we remember it very well . it's completely

recently there were some there 30 years ago, but the pseudo control of putin and the russian elite, which the west, including the united states of america, is now trying to demonstrate, leads to new steps and new threats from the kremlin, in particular from the is in the direction of lithuania because we know that vilnius has introduced european union sanctions and banned the transportation of goods from russia by rail to kaliningrad, and russia, in the person of the press secretary of the russian foreign ministry maria zakharova, is already threatening lithuania because of this ban, let's listen to what he says zakharov pointed out that he considers improvisational measures of the lithuanian side that violate the international legal obligations of lithuania, first of all, the joint statement of the russian federation and

the european union on the transit between the kaliningrad region and the rest of the territory of the russian federation from 2002, as openly inherent in this regard, that if in the near future cargo transit between the kamingrad region and the rest of the territory of the russian federation through lithuania will not be restored in full russia asserts the right to act on protection of national interests today mykola patorshev, secretary of the security council of the russian federation, arrived on a working visit to the kaliningrad region, there is supposed to be a meeting on national security issues in the north-west of russia, but i still want to quote or rather show another fragment from the interview of the president of belarus , the self-proclaimed president belarus oleksandr lukashenka volodymyr rusalovyov, which was on the air at the beginning of february, that is, before the great war of russia against ukraine and where