kids, it will be quite noticeable, maybe under the president, including before the progress of politics , let this week be and it continues now , uh, well, ukrainian forces are actually under such quite noticeable pressure from the russian forces, in fact, if you look at the map dynamics of military operations for a week , we have it somewhere i was there from dibstate, i don’t know if we can show it, but there you can see that for 10 or so 7-10 days, in fact, the russian forces managed to advance, they managed to advance a little and regain positions near kharkov. managed to advance a little in the direction of sloviansk, but slightly, well, and managed to advance, of course, in the direction of luhansk, oh, well, in the sense of lysichansk-severodonetsk, but the most that

causes the russians, well, now such elation is that they managed to capture tushkivka first of all, they are trying to surround the ukrainian troops in the mountainous area, in the golden area, and we actually have success there. not to seize a part of the mountain area, but the russians themselves say that they managed to organize something there, a little bit of an encirclement, for the grouping of ukrainian forces that is in the area of ​​the golden area, and that is actually the mountain area. in more detail, what is happening there is more important. this is this section and are there really such great successes there. russia, er, in fact, again, if you evaluate these successes

, then on average somewhere, analysts made a forecast that the advance of russia is somewhere around 3 km/h. that is, it is it cannot be considered a breakthrough, at the same time, of course, there is a danger for workers, besides the fact that these are big puppets higher up among the ukrainian military, and a danger is created for its supply, and this threat of clarification, in principle, existed there almost from the first day, and it was one of the most arbitrary russia's plans, and at first it was planned to have a triple ring, then a double ring, and finally, now we will try this one, we hope that of course, if we

discuss these issues live, there are maps of the dynamics of statics, then ukrainian teams also know about this. in other words, this is the scenario that will in no way be repeated , or what happened there in 14-15 years. well, that's why i say once again that today there is no reason to talk about any huge successes of russia. well, there is probably no reason even in the bicycles themselves, because there there is intense criticism from such sources, let's say, there as soon as it is the patriots, there is a sad place of rifle divisions, he constantly criticizes, and the beushniks experts evaluate, and in that case, he is not quite objective in that he criticizes the russian mineral headquarters and the way the war is being waged, that's why i say this, even though the russians themselves don't give a high rating. well, they

talk about what they are doing, like fire control of the r-66 route, which goes to the golden one, and thanks to this, it's like the ukrainian troops there, well, we are talking about 2,000 ukrainian troops from one and a half thousand to 2. that is, somewhere in such a volume that they seem to be unable to move freely along that route, well , that is, you know, a dubious statement about what this environment is it's like an operative control, but you also remember that they talked about the road that leads there to bakhmut lysychansk, and then it turned out that no, they cannot fully control it, and after all, the troops were moving there, so it is really doubtful here, unfortunately, we have to say goodbye to mr. oleksiy melnyk now, is he he has business there, thank you oleksiy melnyk. he was a military expert and co-director of the policy and international security programs of the razumkova center, and

mr. marchilam sensadze and i continue to talk about it . how do you assess this story ? is happening around toshkivka because it looks like they will try to show how this is the greatest success until the 26th, until june 26, i have a strong impression that this will be that, that is, not even lysychansk on severodonetsk, but specifically on what is happening around the golden i would say that this is somehow a very strong reduction of ambitions from the encirclement of the entire grouping near avdiivka in the north donetsk region, that is, this whole thing is like an arc that was there from the donetsk region and the luhansk region, now we are talking only about what is only the threat to the ukrainian forces near the golden district , that is, the ambitions have clearly decreased. but is there really a chance to save our ugra near the golden district? what do you think, mr.

archyla ? do you hear me? give it time. clarify your question a bit, why, why, on the 26th, you say that i am not. i will try to achieve something , we do not know why this is the case, the data appeared. some kind of intelligence information, what is the purpose of leaving at the border of the luhansk region. now the russians call this date june 26, well, is it objective ? it's hard to say, it's just like that, i understand. i think that she is more or less

rescheduled . e combat order for to whom, well, the combat units that lead here are these offensive ideas. they should be promised to such a number, but look, i would not become, well, very much like that, and so on, in the eastern direction, and because, to be honest, this is a grateful deed , absolutely not grateful. i would say later what are you and i? well, we don’t know, we have absolutely no idea what the ratio of forces is, and what ratio there is, i’m not talking about, but i live the forces and weapons techniques, and so on and the like, i honestly don’t know the plans of the armed forces and how ready they are and how always they are

surrounded by that or and how much for us for them eh this or that eh-eh direction of direction they operationally tactical of some significance have eh-eh in reality eh-eh i think that it is necessary a little eh-eh how to say strategic global look at all the same, this is what is happening now. i would, i still would n't divide it. i see daring actions all over the front i don't see how to say a strategic dream. well, i understand that putin's strategic dream is to pay for all of ukraine and move on to poland and the baltic states, etc., but i don't see any ways to

achieve all of this. strategic battle plans according to which uh , or at least an effort according to which i could say that yes, here on the direction we should, for example, uh, preserve some road there or preserve some settlement, he does not appear strategically important to exit they will level the front there or vice versa and try to go to nice and knock out the enemy from some strategic city there. and again, i have to do with the fact that the command is so weak, and from the russian side they really can't strategic planning is carried out instead of strategic planning . here are operational-tactical manners and actions , and combat action. combat tasks i

again, i will show you, but they are connected by some more operational tactical achievements , that is, they probably have and in all likelihood , there is a task. it just falls on the combat activity and capabilities that they are now showing. and it can be later, eh. as you said, the plan is on the 26-27th , or some date, so that they will go to some border. i think that this is what he is talking about maybe it will happen later, and again, at some point or another already a strategic moment, not an operational moment, and you say actions, and the conflict can be complicated because the war can go into a shallow, intensive phase, or it can go into a more

intensive phase because it is stylish in some operational tasks in the eastern direction , the worker can er will resume hostilities in the south-eastern or north-eastern direction, that is, they already understand the layout, they know what grouping is being prepared there and what forces are deployed there, and there may be another the option is the option. it can already be done and for the purpose of what we have paid for. we have paid as much land as possible. now let's give it. we will now start negotiations and we will start negotiations from a better position than you. then continue to watch and move there, and i guarantee you that even if there are some peace talks, the hostilities will not stop, but i thought it was interesting that you think that

they can resume actions in the south direction. i also think that this date is the 26th, not the 26th. you can argue here, but the point is unsuccessful. it seems to me that in fact, in the area of ​​north donets-lysychansk region, the russians are, well, you know what it is called, they got stuck in these battles, they didn't they expected that it would be so long, they need to somehow bring these battles to a logical conclusion, they can’t just throw everything in there now, and just freeze in such positional battles, they need some point to come out on some kind of something, roughly speaking, they can report back, we say it they made a front line there somewhere and then we are there in a positional struggle and the story is actually happening, it seems to me, also near kharkov where they are simply trying to get closer to kharkov in order to be able to shell it and not allow the ukrainian forces to leave from there in the direction of kharkov. especially since they

they were doing two such things there now, well, on the one hand , they seem to have restored it like the russians. i have such information that there are maps that show that in the area of ​​kupyansk they have restored a pontoon crossing, and this allows them to transfer more easily now troops than it was before, this is kupyansk, a junction on one side, on the other side in the area of ​​raisin. are under fire from the ukrainian defense forces and it's bad for them there but nevertheless, i think that they will still be doing a lot of work there, but they need to achieve some success in the north donetsk region in order to transfer troops from there to the south. i think that's

why that the southern direction for russia appears to be more it's important, they show off very much that they want to hold a referendum, they want to connect kherson oblast and part of zaporozhye to russia, but it's impossible. if the ukrainian forces there will advance as they are advancing little by little , now they need to stop us so that the ukrainian forces in the area of ​​e-e, actually in the area of ​​kherson, it is 15 km to kherson, in fact, for the ukrainian forces, for us here, and this is a serious threat to the plans of the strategic plans of russia, because the southern territories are , first of all, land forces, the corridor to crimea, and secondly, this the territories at the expense of which they want to increase their export of grain. they have, well, for them, these territories are important for simply supplying food, so it seems to me that the situation, as far as you agree, is that they are

now trying to gain a foothold on some frontiers in the east, in the north, there near kharkov in order to simply stop there and conduct positional battles and then still transfer the battles to the east, well , to the north, to the south, so in this part i agree with you. i will go back a little from now on the beginning of this conflict and something became clear. this is the first time that they set themselves a task, they could not fulfill your task . will try to

distract ukrainian forces and resources as much as possible. it is clear that we, too, need to somehow resist there in everything that is happening there , some kind of military continent is going. and on the other side, the same thing is happening with variable success in the kharkov direction. too, with variable tactical coordination-tactical there, i don’t know a-a plan and successes, one way, the other way, they also manage, as it were, to distract attention and with the power of the means, the same thing happens in the south, precisely to me in the southern direction a-a a here there is a moment of such distraction, er, tons of forces of ukraine, here in the north and in the north of the eastern part, they will reach the luhansk and donetsk regions of the border regions, they will put something like ot call, and here we are now digging in. and you

will not go further, you know, the war is not only that is, in order for the territories to enter, this is their ideology, too. they must tell that they finally went to the border in donetsk and luhansk republic, they isolated the ukrainians , they put a field there, and then it is already in independence, from there, regroup again my strengths and opportunities, either in the northern or southern direction, i fully agree with you that this will be more management because, well, strategic, well, strategic is very important, and the black sea and port cities are very important, and we understand all this very well, but it is not important for the ideological characteristics of the ideological approach to the severnoe strona that there is kharkiv, and if he is honest, he said

that they achieved success there in mariupol-melitopol, further, kherson - this is it it was in the first days in reality they are like that the intensity of hostilities increased, and it did not succeed in reality, eh well, eh, how would you say , it will capture more than one large city, and for this, uh, well, kharkiv would be, how would you say , a suitable city for them, that's all it represented a huge ideological significance, that is, the north, the north, about the ideological part of one part. this is a really strategic direction, where they are exactly after that. well, if of course they will be able to achieve what they have set themselves the task of luhansk and donetsk, then this will be the south you know the direction regarding kharkiv. i'm just looking at what is now appearing in the russian press, well

, there are all kinds of rumors by the public and so on, talks about the fact that there is some kind of agreement, kharkiv remains there and they will not have relationship, but in the south, it seems that their goal remains odesa, but nevertheless, now , this week, this happened very successfully. e-e ship, what kind of ammunition is there at all such a serious ship that carries out supplies there and, well, in general there, for example, british intelligence says that ukraine has already largely neutralized russia's ability to control the black sea in the northwestern part. it is also about whether some

nato exercises and such can take place there such a plan that in the future these exercises can turn into convoys for ukrainian grain, that is, in relation to this entire complex of sea control. how do you think the situation can be there, and what is needed in order to protect odessa from an attack, that is, in the broadest sense of these words, well, let's say it like this today a-a strategic er-er russia she completely controls the black sea er-er and er well, i would say that this is exactly the part that interests the ukrainian side and our how-to-say ports and in order to they are already developing shipping there, and so on, the question is a little bit different in how far the states that go to the black sea have opportunities or desired, or at least some actions have been agreed upon a-a well,

there is the biggest player besides the russian side this is turkey and turkey. as far as i understand, they are now. well, based on the fact that they are constantly looking for opportunities and conducting negotiations on the russian side and even conducting negotiations without the participation of the ukrainian side, i have the feeling that they have some their plans and how they would say their goals. although before stich, it will probably be clear a little later. courts and the merchant fleet and so on, to be honest, i don't see if there is too much to make a decision . famine and so on, and he will already

warn russia that there will be a military convoy and the ship will be accompanied by nato warships, then another question, but then turkey, as a member of the north atlantic bloc, would have to deal with this convoy. well, not yet happened. i think that russia is us strate ot predominance in the black sea and this will still be the case. how can i say who looks deplorable? it looks deplorable to us because... and who knows that a long war also has a very serious effect on the economy, and the economy affects the possibilities of war, and considering the fact that we have, er, i don’t know gold, gold and foreign exchange reserves, they were not very huge . and now, er, during hostilities, they are

mediocre my estimate is approximately $400,500 million every day eh ukraine spends for a and for the conduct of hostilities in the region or it can end without real support a-a in the west with weapons and money well, it will be practically impossible to be famous for the fact that its only useful function has always been such a historical function, it was actually drowned in two warriors and that's all , that is, they could no longer use it as how to sink in the bays and uh, in fact, it's very for us if she said the challenge to sink it for the third time and

it seems to me that this is the only way to solve this problem at all because there are not so many of those ships so objectively let's say we now let's say what is there it seems two or three submarines from which they fire at us with calibers and a couple of ships there from which they fire at us and remove them from there - this is one good conference of maritime states that would give us good weapons against ships. maybe i exaggerate, i don't know. your opinion can we achieve this supply you are exaggerating because well one conference or ah one meeting in rammstein can solve this problem solve it at least at the level when you have some anti-ship weapon and you already understand exactly what it is against it naval weapons you have uh, at least, but there are advantages there, on some

, i’ll take off d and uh, russian, but it won’t be able to reality that today the russian side already has there are basins of that there is a zone of impact, which as we say, and in this zone of impact, they are already moving a-a and eh yes, you are absolutely right you say that we have better, better weapons, better rockets, well, we are developing missiles, why didn’t we give them to the end is already a second question, but in this case, we need to continue to find development. i mean, uh , the weapons and equipment that ukraine can potentially own and we don’t ask from anyone. - how would i say the tempo that would be i wanted well, i think that this radius will increase for you, this radius will be increased at some point, it can

definitely reach up to the moment and to the border when the russian ships of reality will be able to stay in the bays and they will go to a if we have already started talking about the supply of weapons, we have literally a couple of minutes left. please tell me, well , the russians are planning that the supply of weapons to such and such pauline lisa to the american and, therefore, the third ramstein will not be before october. this year and by this time they want to have more and more time to seize the territory there, or are these their plans, well , really, hmm, well, there are such things, or could it be a faster supply of weapons, and actually, what else can we talk about besides direct supply weapons. can we talk about the production of weapons, for example, for ukraine in poland, romania, that is, because

there is no point in talking about the production of ammunition in ukraine now, as long as any point here can be hit by russian missiles. well, i also agree with you on this. -and we get such an ether . and so on a-ah constensus a-ah in order for us to be given this or that weapon and in reality

uh-eh then it immediately gets to the front line a-ah at the same time i well why am i saying that well develop your own weapons then well well reality is a huge ukrainian ukroboronprom a-a this is well this is an agglomerate and there is a huge enterprise eh that is possible i don’t know endures endures listen eh there was eh there was the second world war and then the plants were postponed i think that and today’s war with the russian federation for ukraine is a war on survivors it is absolutely necessary to lay down all the forces and economic opportunities there to dismantle the factories for vladyka again production i do not know underground on ukrainian territory in poland somewhere else under the cover of the sky to get an iron dome here or there and not give someone the opportunity to fire at the ukrainian territory, and at the same time, production of high-precision weapons is being established there today in reality. well,

that’s what russia is trying to do as much as possible. in the future, it can be much more difficult, although we will be high- precision long-range. - you will win this war and achieve it - you will translate this war intellectually, this means high-precision, intelligent use, high- precision weapons, long-range weapons, that you have such a potential, and in parallel, but as much as possible i think that some part, at least 30 percent, gets to the front line. well, i imagine that, as you said somewhere, probably after the summer, i think that

it will not happen a little earlier. очень долгое время is needed in order to master new weapons and new equipment, probably a month and a half. i think that already by the end of july, somewhere, probably in august, in the middle of august, it will be really noticeable at the front. thank you, it was archer sensad for a military diplomat, adviser to the minister of defense of ukraine in 15-19 years and a colonel of the armed forces of georgia, these were the chronicles of the war, a week's review, i'm olga, i'm lazy, let's meet next wednesday. well, actually, for today, we have everything, thank you, february 24, the date that changed us, the date that changed the world and now what interests us most is our victory, when we will defeat the enemy, how to predict the course of the war , the saturday political club program returns to the espresso airwaves to help understand the events