itself apocalyptic for europe, which if we remember then everything started to develop from july , according to the scenario of this new escalation due to the reduction of supplies from russia, this is something that was not noticed at first in the european union, when they noticed it was already too late. also the famine scenario was actively promoted by russia from the point of view of intimidation of europe, well, actually, nothing like that happened and not only because the winter in europe was, well, it was not so average, it was there, cooling over the warmth, on the other hand, on the united states came to help with supplies of volumes of natural gas scraps. yes, these supplies were insufficient, but they turned out to be sufficient for the demonstration of such energy solidarity on both sides of the atlantic. and

actually, although gas prices remained and remain at a high level, nevertheless, there were no apocalyptic events , so to speak no phenomena happened, the situation is of course this year and on the eve of the new season, it looks more difficult. there is no doubt that because now there is no shortage of forecasts from the russian side about the fact that if now the prices are kept somewhere there at the level of 1,300 1,500 $, for 1,000 m³, they went up. just after these manipulations of the northern stream, the first person to predict that in winter it will be 2,000 there is 3.5 thousand well, and so on, of course, it hits the pockets of ordinary consumers and large corporations, because this is an absolutely abnormal price for gas, as well as an abnormally high price of oil. by the way, here

russia uses it expertly manipulations and uh, the same repetition of last year's template and uh, actually speaking in the format of opec plus fans, well, it’s a slightly different topic, and of course there is always a correlation between russia’s energy and er military strategy, and that’s why they just now engaged in such er energy preparation of europe, which showed russia its teeth because or else 6 sanctions packages have been introduced, next is the issue of the gas embargo well, now they are trying to show in the manner inherent in the kremlin that we do not know what you will do with the gas embargo but before you make a decision and you will make it in that the same algorithm, as usual, we discussed

it there for a whole month, so we will show you before that, well, in a typical manner, they are scurrying and eh. of course, that in eh. but now the situation in the european union is no longer the same as it was there even a year ago. well, after february 24, it is clear that it has undergone a serious evolution. how can europe today protect itself from such russian dependence on gas, given that the situation in the same united states with liquefied gas has now become more complicated. will the united states help europe, do they have such opportunities? well, maybe there are some. despite the accident of the lg freeper in the gulf of mexico, and for three months, as they say, the company was out of business, more precisely, they reduced their export opportunities, but if i hadn't said that this will somehow have a fatal effect on the supply of gas to the

european union, the accident is quite strange, really, but if there are no other uh-uh, then in principle the united states, of course, will not be able to cover all the needs of the european union in liquefied gas and in gases in general, but they will be able to contribute in one way or another. in addition, the european union is now actively engaged in the issue of revising some decisions, especially at the national level, regarding, for example, the closure of a number of coal-fired power plants, and now precisely at the national level in countries and not only in germany, but first of all in germany, a decision was made to slow down, on the contrary, to start even those profitable power units that were already turned off and were not used. the netherlands, for example , which wanted to practically do away with

gas production at the groningen field, this famous and legendary field, thanks to which europe received gas for 60 years, it is exhausted, of course, but it still has certain resources . in order to reduce the volume of gas imports, right now in germany there is a hot debate about the question of whether it is necessary to shut down three nuclear power units this year, which, according to the schedule, will refuse nuclear energy even during merkel's time, this schedule was adopted. it's about the fact that it needs to be postponed for two years, although for now chancellor scholtz is resisting the revision of this schedule, so to speak, but it is not excluded that this is exactly what will happen. in the end, as

a result of the discussions, it is being discussed a whole set of issues of possible measures, in particular the recommendations of the international energy agency on how to dramatically reduce energy consumption, and precisely that which is produced from gas imported from russia, that is, i think that such actions of russia as these manipulations accelerated by the current first, they will actually lead to the reverse effect of accelerating the process of terrosification e.e. gas imports e.e. of the european union reducing the use of gas in general it is no coincidence that even the head of the international energy agency such biologists said the other day about e.e. the european union must be ready for winter without of russian gas, that is, if the statement

is already at such a level, at the level of the head of the international energy agency, then, in principle, it is as if an additional signal for the european commission for the governments of the eu countries that it is necessary to resort to extraordinary measures because, strictly speaking , when the international artic agency was created, it was created precisely with the purpose of, among other things, to be a kind of early warning mechanism about a possible energy crisis a crisis in one or another, er, in one or another area, well , that is, we can say that these extraordinary measures predict that in the next four to five months, europe will find options for complete disconnection from russian gas and ways existence in such conditions well, it is unlikely to find options for a complete shutdown, it is faster, as i already

noted, russia can resort to military logic, so to speak, to cut off the gas supply, although commercial logic dictates the opposite, now the revenues received by gazprom, it is obvious that for this year they will be maximum, that is, roughly speaking, if you sell less, you will get no less. but the more numbers show themselves to be of a similar kind. the revenues were in the gazprom only somewhere in the 12th and 13th years, when there was also a peak in oil and gas prices, and this is the level was somewhere close. even now , prices have risen a little higher than 10 years ago , and therefore if the situation looks like this, one way or another, the european union, the countries of the european union, must be ready for an extreme option, because... the behavior of the kremlin is becoming more and more rational and of course

where there is a commercial benefit and the fact that the europeans have always believed that russia will not take any mountain steps because it is profitable to receive money from our market, they say, we will see what this logic does not work because the fact that gazprom cut off the supply of gas, using the formal pretext that poland and bulgaria refused to extend the contract and switch to paying for gas in rubles the example shows that for the kremlin it doesn't matter who is a russophobe, like poland, which qualifies in the kremlin , is a cross-sophisticated state or who is a russophile, like bulgaria, which has traditionally always been loyal to

russia . no matter what, that's why if here already kremlin e-e obukh hits on all in a row without distinguishing who is sympathetic and who is the opposite, and this says precisely that and this is an extra signal, an additional signal e for the european union that it is necessary to prepare for the worst scenario, how can you put an end to this paradox, russia sells less gas, it simply supplies there is less oil and profits are growing. i don’t know the data on gas, but in three months directly on oil, in three months the russians earned 100 billion, in fact, every day brought them 1 billion for exporting oil, and we are talking about the introduction of sanctions in the energy sector on the other hand segment on the gas component and on oil, how to ensure that those sanctions really hit russia so that there would be no such excess profits, are there any options? well, in this connection , there are options

. so to speak, the algorithm itself , first of all, if the sanction regimes were officially sanctioned, then the partial oil barge, well, this is the decision at the end of may. before that, what was done was certain , so to speak, voluntary actions at the level of governments and companies that refused russian oil and of oil products means that russia did not waste time either, they came up with various circumvention schemes, gray schemes , black schemes and so on. now there is an increase in the price and er the actual increase in revenue is a temporary phenomenon. i think in the fourth quarter it may all change er but of course that the er

sanction packages of the european union and in particular the latest sixth - this does not mean that comprehensive measures have been taken and the following measures are needed to supplement what is already there. you can see from the dynamics of the decrease in physical export volumes that it is working, but if russia had calculated in the same way since last year that by reducing the volume of gas supplies, there will be a price escalation and therefore you sell less, you will get more. it still continues to work, but here the situation looks like we need additional solutions, which are now being considered, they have already been sounded , but there are no active discussions already at the level of the institutions there, and they are related to the fact that the first it is necessary to develop a special mechanism that will

make it impossible to transfer to russia the full amount of revenue for exported energy resources, that is, what we are talking about is what, for example, can come to russia as a payment. which is $120 per color, the second position is that uh, and here if a question arises, and this is also not a new idea, back in the 15th year, poland proposed to the european union to create a mechanism for consolidated centralized gas procurement with in order to make impossible these manipulations by gazprom that we give gas to the germans with the biggest discount and to the baltic countries or poland, on the contrary, then it was rejected as a non-market e-e anti-competitive

approach, but now they are returning to this in order to create e-e such in response to it is russian domination to create a cartel of buyers who will determine that the price of gas cannot be higher there, let's say $500, for 1,000 hryvnias per cubic meter, so it will be bought at this price and not at 1,500 or 2,500 e-e, how is it e-e dictates deformed russian manipulations of the gas market well, there is a third position, if it is the most rigid, which may not be perceived now, but which may be the most effective in terms of just uh, already uh, the impossibility of uh, not just the expansion, but in general the impossibility of uh, oil trade with russian parties, one way or another, all

oil is shipped mainly from the russian parties of the black and baltic seas, yes, for asia there are also far eastern ports, there are a few ports, but the main oil flows come from the baltic black sea, so, in principle, maybe there could be and it should be when, over time, this will be understood in europe, a blockade will be introduced on the entry of oil tankers into the baltic and black seas to load oil, that is, russian ports are simply empty and should not enter to pass through the dardanelles there or through the kagerak. and actually speaking, if there are no tankers then no one will be able to send oil anywhere from novorossiysk, from primorsk, from iron, from stopse, from there, so it seems to me that this is the most effective option.

not only the european union should become more active in this regard, but also nato, interesting proposals, interesting solutions, but we are now talking directly about the problems of europe, about the strategy of the russian federation, and directly about what is happening in our country, the risks of winter, gas, the prospects of strategies, what is most important here. at the current state, of course, we understand that every uh for the last seven, yes, almost eight years, every next winter season, we always expected some kind of pohilitic things uh but still, thanks to the efforts of our energy companies, the energy sector company naftogaz, the energy atom of ukrenergo, if

one way or another, all scenarios were avoided in this case, it is about the fact that, of course, when part of an important energy infrastructure er or er is brought to a non-functional state or has suffered damage and cannot work at capacity, then the problems will definitely be of a serious nature. at the same time, it should be noted that what happened if, well, this is not what you can be proud of, but there was a sufficiently serious fall consumption of energy resources, well, due to the fact that a large part of the industry is not working, and in this case, as it were, when will he talk about the need to create reserves again, and the creation of such reserves now has serious logistical problems,

because, for example, it is impossible to start coal in on imports, since the black sea ports are blocked and obviously we will have to use the possibilities of e.e. railway connections from the countries of the european union, the possibilities of their port infrastructure, which, well, is not limitless, also because if on the government levels. i think the appropriate solution is still being worked out. well, we actually have the beginning of summer. so, about the creation of the necessary reserves, so they will be needed less . the destruction of industrial assets there, and due to the excessively high price of gas, you can imagine

how much the production will cost, the production of which involved gas imported there, let's say at the price from the sports market at the price there of $ 1,500 per 1,000 kopecks, if a number of chemical enterprises in europe were no longer functioning, because to make something from such gas, some kind of product, with all the economy of european enterprises, so to speak, it would not be competitive with chinese or american ones, so there are serious challenges without any doubt, but the main challenge here is the main threat that must be neutralized - this is the actual threat, we see that the practice of russian attacks on our critical infrastructure, that is, in this context

we need additional efforts of our and the armed forces and our partners in order to ensure appropriate countermeasures and reduce uh these damage to our critical infrastructure, which is important for uh well not only for passing the winter season but in as a whole for the functioning of the e-e in the economy, especially in such a war period. well, first of all, you are talking about strengthening the air defense system over critical infrastructure objects, which i understand and e-e strengthening against e-e ship capabilities in the black sea zone to unblock our ports, these two components are extremely critical for the current stage, understanding these challenges and knowing your experience in communicating with the american side, are

there girls that the american side clearly understands these vulnerable places of ukraine and really effectively helps in solving these problems because conventionally speaking about air defense, we say that the prospects are uncertain regarding anti-ship capabilities, we want more, we get what we get. what are your assessments of interaction with the us in this direction? well, you see here the situation looks like this. no matter what , but it is in such an active development and there is no doubt that here the understanding of the depth and seriousness of the challenges takes place on several levels as its united in the states as well as in europe and what , strictly speaking, are the problems that have arisen in ukraine, well , if they are not only ukrainian problems , because one single example, our underground gas

storages are very active, especially in the 20th year, e less e-e in the 21st year at high prices e-e were used for gas storage on the winter period is just uh by our european partners if uh let's say the strength of these or other reasons uh it will be difficult to use these underground storages or it will not be possible then it will be possible for the countries of central europe whose companies used uh our gas storages therefore, in this case, we are talking about the fact that the problems of infrastructure protection should be considered in a complex way, both based on the interests of ukraine, and the interests of the countries of the eastern periphery of the eu or the eastern

flank of nato, because it will, so to speak, beat and in their interests, and in this case, we see that if, in connection with the accession of ukraine to the european energy system, we have additional insurance to compensate for a possible shortage of electricity. there in the winter period, the earlier we used it russian and belarusian supplies are quite naturally impossible now, but we have opened, so to speak, the gateways with europe. when we don't have enough, that is, these gateways should be preserved as well, because it is as if we had

an integrated unified energy system. because it's called preparing sleds in the summer and not waiting there for winter or something , how much is it for us as for people to perceive these warehouses where gas is stored, are they protected or unprotected, how vulnerable are they, because i myself have no idea what they are objects well, what is an underground gas storage - this is a former gas field, so where is it, at a depth of one and a half kilometers, somewhere on average, is it, actually, a natural reserve , a reservoir, gas has been mined there for a long time, this field is

exhausted, and now on the contrary, it is used for pumping gas and pumping it out in the winter , well, to hit something at a depth of 1.5 km, if this is the gas tank that was found, well, but there is no doubt that there are questions related to covering it under attack what infrastructure located on the surface. how do you assess the prospects? the medium-term prospects of ukraine from the point of view of the development of energy independence for gas and oil, given this vulnerable moment of the destruction of part of the critical infrastructure, what do we need to do and what can we do in a short period of time well, in a short time the period of time uh, there is so little to go, you can only carry out the necessary complexes of some restorative repair work uh, talk about some uh, there

are some long-term plans . hostilities, well, we can talk, but it is quite clear that no one will come from investors, it doesn't matter whether they are domestic or foreign, spend money, make multibillion-dollar investments in projects that are at risk of damage, well, actually, let's remember where we started, let's finish the story development of offshore gas fields in the black sea precisely during 12-13 in 2014, in the spring, a large-scale agreement on the development of the scythian gas field on the shelf in the deep-water zone should have been signed in the spring with the participation of leading companies

such as if mobil shell and it was a threat to russian state companies that a colossal additional resource of gas would appear there, a competitive object, then they would work, so to speak, or the crimean operation to preempt the liquidation - creating unacceptable military and political risks , investors left e p mykhailo thank you for this interesting conversation, i think that we will return to this topic in our upcoming programs, and i will remind our viewers that our interlocutor would be mykhailo gonchar , the president of the center for global studies, strategy 21 me my name is serhii zgurets, i am the director of defense express and watch our future releases on the espresso channel events, the most important events, events that are happening right now and affect our lives, of course, the news feed reports about them, but it is not enough to know what is happening, you need to understand

antin berkovskii and invitation experts soberly assess the events analyze them by modeling our near future that saturdays at 1:00 p.m. with a repeat at 10:00 p.m. studio event with anton borkovsky nayspresso april 4 concert rrt illegally turned off the digital air ukrainian independent tv channels espresso the fifth and direct on the website of the cabinet of ministers of ukraine a petition has been registered in which it is demanded to return to the digital air ukrainian tv channels in order to sign the petition first you need to register it is very simple go to the website petition.tmu.gov.ua there go to the registration tab and enter all your data, enter your phone number and email, confirm all your data,

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that changed the world and now what interests us most is our victory, when we will defeat the enemy, how to predict the course of the war, the saturday political club program returns to the espresso airwaves to help understand the events and predict the consequences that on saturdays vitaliy portnikov and maria gurska will discuss the most relevant to draw appropriate conclusions if you want to know how what is happening today will affect our tomorrow, see saturday political club what saturdays on espresso program verdict my name is serhiy rudenko everyone have a good day and good health today is the 120th day of the heroic resistance of the ukrainian people against the russian occupiers today in brussels the historic summit of the european