and it seems to me that today lukashenka's role is that of a provocateur. that is, he is being used now so that he draws attention to himself and so that we have to keep a certain part of our forces on our border with belarus and cannot, accordingly, use them in the immediate areas where will the hostilities take place now , the same thing is happening now in sumy oblast, because we know that the orcs have retreated from there, but there is constant shelling. there are specific shellings of our border settlements, some kind of firefights are constant on the border, that is, again, the combined forces that are there now, they must be forced to stay there because there is a constant threat from there. accordingly, we cannot transfer them to other directions for the sake of it this is all being done. well , plus the information panic, because when this wave begins, there is absolutely 100% information that

tomorrow at four in the morning the offensive will begin again from belarus on kyiv, so accordingly it affects psyche of the people, this part of the information war is part of the fact that, in particular, the capital of ukraine, which are our regions on the border with belarus , they put themselves in danger, so that those who left did not hurry to return, so that the economic life did not begin to recover, so that everything constantly hung in such a maximum state of limbo state , that is, for the sake of this, it is done because well, today i believe that without russian shock units, no, i do not, the belarusian army is not capable of any kind of offensive. that is, it is not capable of this. from the point of view of its numbers, or from the point of view of its weapons, and most importantly, it is not capable from the point of view of its morale, because we see how bad the morale is among the muscovites who were screwed over, who were given this imperial ideology, who were answered, what does it mean that they are going there to

liberate someone, and so on. at the same time, their morale is not up to par. and what can we say about belarus , about belarusians who, well, in general, obviously understand that they are being dragged into an absolutely insane adventure in which there is nothing in them at all no interests, i am not talking about this finished lukashenko. and i am talking about belarusians , about ordinary citizens of belarus, who obviously understand that it is madness to start some kind of attack on ukraine right now. and this definitely affects the boys' ability and everything else, if we cannot include such an option. if , after all, such an adventure takes place, it will end with the fact that i think there will be mass surrenders in the columns of the belarusian military. i think that there will not even be any serious battles, i think they will surrender because they will not want to fight, and even for the city, the russian troops will not help. well, i think that most likely this will mean the complete collapse of the already puppet lukashenko and the change of the regime in

belarus itself in one way or another, and it is obvious that this will also lead to this is due to the fact that russia will have to transfer troops there, because some kind of rebellion will start there again, and it will have to be suppressed directly, not by the forces of lukashenko, but by the forces of the russian army and russian military units, that is, it seems to me that lukashenko probably also understands this again, without removing in any way the fact that blood is still on his hands at night and he will bear responsibility for his crimes on the same level as putin. but i think he perfectly understands what will happen for him personally, including the consequences if the belarusian army crosses the border these consequences will mean that he will lose power very quickly and, most likely, his life will come to an end. thank you for this analysis of this situation. how is it now? andrii illenko was with us because there is a legion of freedom, people's deputy of ukraine of the previous two convocations, volodymyr hirnyak

promised the word, we are moving on our air, we have to make time and discuss everything and hope that the anxiety will not interrupt us. please tell me today general malomuzh said that he knows mr. lukashenko well because he worked with him from 2005 to 2010 i do not have the opportunity to know mr. lukashenko, but i want to say one simple thing that he has been in power in belarus since 1994 , that is 28 years. this means that he is in power in europe for the longest time, that is, he is definitely not a fool, i think that putin has been and will be to force lukashenka to attack ukraine in the future, will it be able to attack? probably not . at the moment, the army of belarus has only 45,000 combat-ready units. 15,000 more, note the territory of russia, where mostly funerals take place. where are people from the outskirts of russia? there are many funerals in novgorod , in st. petersburg, in moscow, there are actually none, and belarus is very small, and when in this case, imagine that the belarusian army will go from chernihiv to kyiv, or will it go to volyn

in the lutsk direction, well, there will definitely be jokes , belarus is not really that big, belarus has less than 10 million inhabitants, and when at the same time a nominally speaking 50,100 or even more people will die there. and today i had the opportunity to speak with my military colleague who is currently on rotation in lutsk now they are ready, we are ready and they communicate in the same way with belarusian soldiers, that is, there are two options, that is, they will simply not advance and will simply surrender as prisoners, and the second thing is when the coffins will go to belarus and when they will go 50,100 or more, this means that there will be riots in belarus. and this will mean that lukashenko will lose the regime. now the second thing is what i want to say in the context of what comrade bohema said about the internal situation, you know, after the internal political situation, you know. i didn't want to talk about it at first. to speak, but i will say a few words, now we already have it, we actually have the fifth month of the war, there will be a lot of questions about the south and about kyiv and about personnel, such as when the deputy head of the sbu is unknown in what way

he took office where he was found now serbia where the state bureau of investigation has now opened criminal cases but it will be after the war at the moment we all have to unite and in that situation i want to say words of gratitude in our political opposition and european solidarity and others to the political parties that are in the opposition, which really, as mykhailo mykhailovych said, united around the commander-in-chief and despite the fact that many things on the part of the authorities are not entirely ethical, i'm not saying about the situation, i am not a member of the verkhovna rada, i am not talking about the situation in the verkhovna rada, but i recently had the opportunity to watch a television marathon . i cannot understand how guests are invited, how experts are invited, that is, there are many questions, but thanks to the opposition in this situation, which is possible in on the sidelines , this issue is being discussed, but the issue is not raised publicly, and after the victory, there will definitely be a lot of questions. therefore, the map of ukraine is currently white, so where there were worries, they

they are stopping and we hope that it will continue to be so in the future. there is also news from brussels that the european parliament is currently sitting and will vote on granting and approving ukraine's application for membership in nato. so you see, while they were talking about the map of ukraine only in the luhansk region, now the alarm is still going on in the west of ukraine today is already the third alarm, in fact, this is after exactly one week in lviv there were no alarms, this is actually quite a significant period, because it seems to me that initially wars were not so often so long-lasting parts of time, there were no alarms in lviv oblast, ternopil oblast, volyn, and this week is the fourth month of the war, more and more often and from universities, many high-ranking officials, but it is about the fact that all of us in the whole world, here in europe, including ukraine, expect a protracted war, let's

listen to these statements and then we will try to analyze his studies, the occupiers started the war on purpose, not by taking over kramatorsk and sloviansk, there is still a threat of a renewed offensive from belarus, but the armed forces of ukraine are ready for any development, she informed about this at the briefing deputy minister of defense of ukraine hanna malyar , on the other hand, the leaders of europe and the united states have also been declaring a war of attrition for several days in a row, a war of attrition continues, in which ukrainians pay a high price for the defense of their country, but the russian federation also suffers great losses, wars are by their nature unpredictable and therefore we just have to be ready for the long-term perspective, in my opinion, the russian-ukrainian conflict will end at the negotiating table - said nato secretary general genstoutenberg, and i regret to note that we have to prepare for protracted war, as putin moved to a military

campaign of attrition, trying to wipe out the ukrainian forces with ever greater force, the united kingdom and our friends must respond, namely to provide ukraine with the necessary strategic resources to endure and ultimately win - wrote the british prime minister in his column in an authoritative publication minister boris johnson i'm not afraid, but i think that at some point it will be a kind of waiting game what the russians can withstand and what europe will be ready to withstand - said the president of the usa - joe biden, let's go back to our studio to the head of the military expert, the question is, have you heard the statements of the officials of people who, including, help their countries with finances and weapons, your opinion, your forecast, we understand that forecasts are generally an ungrateful thing, but for your based on the expertise, how much can we expect ? now we have a question for the audience:

will the war end in the 22nd year? well, we rather mean the hot phase of the war because talking about the russian-ukrainian confrontation is decade and people are divided, you see, 54% say yes and 46 say no, you know from half, if allowed, i would draw attention to the second of your phrases that this is a decade in my opinion. what is happening now is a consolidated decision of the world and the settlement, first of all, of the anglo-saxons to lower the geopolitical status for russia, such a decision is tactical, it even coincides with the interests of such a big player as china, at the same time, the decision to defragment and therefore dismemberment of russia is bad news for us, and in my opinion it will be accepted very, very not soon, why am i giving such a specific example, but because as long as this gigantic monster exists, which has 17 million square kilometers, and as long as they have the dominant

philosophy of imperialism, we will never breathe out, i emphasize this aspect we will never breathe out under just three circumstances the monster is dismembered, the nuclear sting is pulled out of it and we join nato , unfortunately, we have to tell the truth and look it in the eye - it's a very long way in my opinion, it's several decades, maybe it sounds pessimistic, but i i would like to look at the world realistically, returning from this great geopolitics to our acquisitions , in my opinion, a cessation of hostilities in the fall is still possible and there is no need to be afraid of it. with the soviet union and russia are still in a state of truce, and in my opinion we will reach this point, then there will be some kind of break, i don't know, a month, two months, a year, 10:15 and an inevitable repeated

russian-ukrainian war, which will finally have to bury russian imperialism, in my opinion , there is no other way at this time. we need to do everything for the truth, two systemic reforms, a real military conceptual reform, we must learn to live the way israel lives . by the way, 32 months to really carry out an economic reform, here i will quote the words of otto von bismenka, which i really like after the unification of germany, he was once asked what should be done for his country, he said only two things: it is necessary to ensure military security and conditions for economic prosperity, and if we these two components are really solved and learn to be in a state of constant combat readiness, i emphasize constant every day from diapers, then we have a chance to finally bury

this monster on my for the first time in history , since the time of sviatoslav the brave, we have a unique moment to break free from the imperial asian narrative and return to the civilized european bosom , unfortunately, we have no other way. it is a long and bloody road, writes i will thank you for the information from russia, well, at least our official editions made public the spokesman of the kremlin, dmitry peskov, said that the signing of a peace treaty with ukraine is possible if russia's demands are fully met, well, no one seems to be going to fulfill their demands. that's why there will be no such treaty. maybe this good oleksiy kravchuk will come to you. questions ah. you are in our studio here for the first time. and it is actually interesting that you know what prompted you to leave this cultural front and

go to the real one before evaluating that the situation that exists now, what do you think about it, well , first of all, any state is, first of all, culture, art, and language. and this is what makes us identify. as ukrainians, in fact, uh, what prompted aggression, i would i would not like the russian peace to come to my house and for it to impose its own interests, and in fact it is possible, it will sound a bit tragic, but i thank the war for what, because all the forces were exposed and consolidated who are now in our state, i.e. at the front now, everyone is at the front now officers, artists, musicians, bandits, smugglers,

who just sit in the same trenches and fight, and it's beautiful. that is, these people completely defend their picture. what else has the war shown ? because if, unfortunately, the experience of the military hmm it comes only during hostilities only during hostilities i would like to support andrii sharakin regarding weapons i on from the beginning, i was so against this law. in fact, this is a very necessary law so that we have the opportunity, as it were, to hold our weapons and respond at any time to this aggression against belarus . possible invasions and keep this defense as before. what did you want? and thank you very much to all the politicians

who united at this time and there were no ska confrontations. was e so, 93 ukrainians are confident that ukraine will be able to repulse russia's attack. 93 are very important numbers, meanwhile, 67% of ukrainians believe that it will take at least six months or even more time to win in the end. this second number is also important to emphasize and it is important that the majority of the ukrainian society understands that tomorrow and an easy victory will not be a so -called easy walk, because it seems to me that we in our studio, somewhere back in april, started

saying that we should not underestimate the opponent after all, there were such sentiments that they said that two times and we will win there. tymoshenko wrote, actually, i wanted to continue the topic that mr. chernyk discussed. it is very interesting in this regard that we are discussing belarus, why belarus has not actually entered the active combat phase so far, well, first of all, what is at the beginning, then believed that he himself would win, he would take over, that's why he doesn't need anyone, besides, we see now that in russia itself, such a cunning horse-drawn competition has also begun, we see how kadyrov has surfaced there and a few more of their politicians who are also trying show the role of the co-winners and take another commander from the half-winner, i.e. lukashenka, now that russia still understands that it has a certain reserve of strength and they also understand that they are preparing for a protracted war, now to involve belarus, well, for them, it is probably a little unjustified too soon

whether or not russia will use belarus, this also needs to be looked into the eyes of those who believe that if there are many corpses of belarus, there will be some internal confrontations. i doubt that there will be . belarus has shown that it is possible to stop it internally any movements by the police forces. and when there is an enemy occupying army with special forces on your territory, plus you have a free hand because you can always blame it . they will be used for their military expertise of the belarusians. and i think that russia does not take them into account at all. we can see how they carried out the mobilization in the occupied territories . that is, without the preparation and quality of the meat of the belarusians. they will also try to use the reason why when belarus will be used in an attack on ukraine , we can safely say that there are no other reserve resources in russia, or

they have already exhausted themselves as a potential, so sooner or later you will attack in some way and try belarus with your army. is there an option in your opinion that somehow lukashenko will find a way to refuse putin. as i ask, i doubt that he will find an opportunity to refuse in real time if there is a bailiff for this. we simply do not take into account. we do not take into account the belarusian generals. belarus is a small country with a population of up to 10 million, and the military knows more about the topic that it is easy to move in a career for belarusian generals, that is, from the highest level there, from the colonel. and then we go, generals, it is simply very, very difficult, and here comes the great russian and russian empire where is possible for their generals to have a very fast career. moreover, we know that their generals are already dying in russia, in addition , up to 15 people are dying there, plus they are displaced, that is, by and large, the entire belarusian generals

now he can command not such combat-ready formations, but in really large-scale ones, where we ourselves understand that in addition to weapons and human resources, someone has seriously hidden financial resources, and therefore, even generals will become the forehead of lukashenka, well, probably not soon, at least for -first, if we are talking about belarus, aren't you? belarus has been at war for a long time without their territory, they are shooting , we have repeated it many times. to do because of the fact that there is a civil society there, let it be weak, weaker than in ukraine, but we remember how many people came out on the streets against lukashenka and no one said that these people will not come out again and some of them are in the armed forces than you will mention in the case do you remember the second world war? well, even here in ukraine , the romanians and hungarians were very cruel. by the way, they were

in the hutsul region. people still remember them. they somehow played a role in the war. some part of our army in the north, it is obvious that putin can use this belarusian army to provoke the special forces, everything else and probably he wants to do it, because it is not for nothing that he has already met with lukashenka so many times, plus he does not have to forget the history with lithuania, kaliningrad and other places near belarus which putin can use to provoke one or another, of course the threat remains and will remain, we all expect that there may be a black swan, something so unexpected, something will happen in russia with putin, it can still happen the probability of this is very high here, because russia is not a stable economy, but despite that, it is a very large country with a huge number of weapons, and these weapons are now being used massively, a threat to ukraine and to kyiv, in particular, as the capital, it still remains, first of all, it remains not necessarily from missiles. it must be from an attack

from somewhere, but such a threat exists from massed missile strikes. i know that, for example, there are many foreign embassies that said that they returned to kyiv, despite the fact that the ambassador came employees are told to wait, it is too early and what are they afraid of. they are not afraid of an attack from belarus, they are afraid of these missiles, how can we win, obviously the war will last a long time , how long do i still believe that it is well, it is clear that it will not be resolved yet the problem with this uncivilized aggressor is that it can last for years, but such a remission, as they say to the disease, it can also happen by the end of the year. they help, after all, they introduced sanctions against russia. maybe these sanctions are not fully effective and we expect more sanctions, especially when we talk about oil and gas, but they still work and where the danger lies in the fact that the west may be

disappointed in us now will be very important step e-e they give us candidacy, this is extremely important for us because we took advantage of the candidacy for membership of the european union, we took advantage of this opportunity that is available but at the same time, it places a huge responsibility on all of us because there are conditions this applies. and the conditions are reforms in the country. imagine that the ukrainian government does not carry out reforms. and we are under such a magnifying glass. the economic situation in european countries and in the united states of america, by the way, is also not the best. it will get worse, because indeed the blockade of russia food, grain, the economic impossibility of trading with such a large market, all this is the problem of oil and gas, all this will hit those societies right-wing and ultra-left movements there will rise, refugees may appear and keep from the west can only be disappointed that how honestly we will fight to take responsibility for the country and change it, that the west will not be able to refuse us as a strong nation, and if we

remain with elements of corruption and indecision on reforms, russia will speculate on this, continue to carry propaganda to the west as it is now leads uh, we won't answer that, but today i read again there that 6 million were allocated to the russian-language channel, instead of making an english-language channel, a ukrainian channel for the ukrainian diaspora . let there be a russian channel for russia again so that to destroy russia, not for ukrainians to spend money somewhere, but we must become an adult responsible nation where the responsibility of both the government and the opposition and civil society will be so high that we have no right to disappoint our allies because our lives depend on it. if this happens, then we will definitely win quickly, if not, we will win anyway but unfortunately, the victims on our side will be much more, you mentioned the embassy, ​​i literally read the news from russia today, the state duma calls for bombing the us embassy literally just appeared in kyiv

because of the supplies that were going to ukraine, that is, the head of the defense committee they have such a thing there yuriy shvidkin said that the us is moving step by step to the third world war, therefore the supply of the ssr complicates the situation according to them well, these are the statements it is necessary to understand what they are leaning towards and what they are talking about. the third world war is a phrase that has been used more and more since february. but this week , these really terrible three words got a new impetus because we understand that the solution to the third world war war can be, including, one of the directions of development and nuclear. and this is already a world-class disaster this week, but two banned travel by trains and then already by roads from the territory of this country. and here it is important to note that this is simply the implementation of the decision of the

european union, but it is clear that in russia it is perceived in a completely different way. there, the spokeswoman of the minister of foreign affairs of the russian federation openly declares that, let's put it this way, the conclusions and next steps of the russian federation may be the official representatives of the russian federation do not specify what steps we can take, but in the end, if you look at their informational so-called propaganda programs, in fact, frankly speaking, they can attack lithuania and now we are in contact with the jacky gang-pavilions from the head of the committee on international affairs of the seimas of lithuania, we say good evening to you, we are joining our broadcast and, first of all, we want to understand how lithuania perceives the threats of the russian federation, how serious and how serious the possibility of this or that

attack by the russian federation or an attempt to attack directly on lithuania is being seriously considered. well, we all take russian roses seriously, because we see that there are no limits to the madness of russia, and finally, we discuss it with all our partners and nato of the european union eh and, as if cynically speaking, russia is helping us eh to achieve eh goals that we eh want to achieve in madrid ourselves for nato on the second week. e military, as if the presence of nato e-e in lithuania and in threats of political countries certainly help to understand that we have time, as it were, with an insane

partner, as they are insane leaders now, or as they convinced the sons and the swede to join nato, and we convinced them with the help of putin, the germans will strengthen our military presence to the level of a brigade. they will now be on uh, their budget will be like how we have somewhere in the lyceum without half of the % of the budget, the german budget will be the third largest in terms of the amount of money for a war in the world, and it will be a very important balance in the

region. please tell me, i wanted to clarify , we talk about this a lot here in our country , mobilization measures are also possible. we should have started earlier when all these information sources appeared, let's call them that, and statements that russia is about to attack or lithuania is thinking about mobilization measures, taking into account the very tense situation today, additional mobilization measures well, i would say so, we are certainly realistic, russia is very much even tied to ukraine , it spends all its strength there and trades very quickly , and our resources in the west are collective resources, much more than the russian economy, even less than the economy of italy, but it threatens to the whole world eh so

we definitely need to mobilize all our economies not only the economies but this is the military complex of germany, sweden and america and we will do it now eh your ambassador is here with me talking to american eh companies and he too how would it be if lviv's petro was always progressive, and lviv says, but we talk to the americans in companies, because they have to launch all their military forces . racism is in no way different from your signs, ideology is the same, only in russia this is happening, uh, slowing down. thank you and