that saturdays at 1:00 p.m. with a repeat at 10:00 p.m. studio event with anton borkovsky nayspresso february 24 the date that changed us the date that changed the world and now what we are most interested in is our victory when we defeat the enemy so predict the course of the war saturday political club program is back on the air espresso to help understand the events and predict the consequences that on saturdays vitaly portnikov and maria gurska will discuss the most relevant to draw appropriate conclusions, you want to know how what is happening today will affect our tomorrow see subbotnik that saturdays are not espresso, we took , came, painted everything, bought minimal equipment and started working, being in our place

and doing our job, people all come together to work, it is important than ever before, we will revive our cities and our economy and we are fighting to work so that our ukraine will prosper to hide nick , we have to work i love ukraine so much i was born here and i want to live here we work with faith in ukraine it is very important in this difficult time to be aware of what is happening we tell the news and we help to understand the events, however, the war can make its corrections in case the broadcast signal is lost, watch espresso on the satellite now espresso has become available on two satellites at once viewers who watch our channel on the astra satellite should readjust the tuner to new parameters,

because the old parameters will soon stop broadcasting espresso ukrainian view thank you for watching thank you thank you thank you thank you support admire tell our defenders how you feel military project from ukrainians send message on cool viber 099 214-640 and our presenters will announce everything right away, everything will be ukraine, here we go back to our guitar and, well, we already congratulate serhiy fursa, an economic expert, serhiy . good day, mr. serhiyiv, well, he offers to talk about what to talk about what is here we already have data on expenditures, expenditures, and revenues of the state budget for

march and may. this is a summary. as far as i understand, and this is what we can see, that our war expenditures have already increased to three. if i am not mistaken, three billion three hundred million dollars per month for may the data are for may, and actually this means that in total, we needed 8 billion in the country just to survive this month, and we had four billion in revenue, and it actually remains, this gap is so serious, all the usual months of the war, how long can the country, in principle, hold on, well c- with such a monthly deficit, what to do uh, look, of course this deficit is unpleasant, but i compared the situation here how did you come to the beach for the first time in the white season - yes and you, by and large, need to

lie down until nine and run away, you can lie until half past ten you can lie until ten o'clock you can until 11:00 you can until 12 and so on eh the question is that every extra extra half hour will cost you then additional pain at home and more of some panthenol or something like smith. this is the same story with the deficient of the budget, the longer the war lasts, the more painful it is, the more painful it is, including the economy for state finances, and it is known from the insurance perspective, because a large part of this financing is deficient in debt or increases our debt load, and then something will have to be done about it to do about whether there is now some critical story that it is too much and we could not stand it, there is no such thing. we are more. now, june was the first month when finally the western partners financed. plus or minus such volumes will receive funds, it

will be easier, plus now the customs duty will be returned will also help the budget, because the conditions from the point of view of imports into ukraine are usually very liberal, which also affects the budgets of our own therefore, it is not critical, especially considering that a part of this money. i hope that the further, the more part will go in the form of grants and not, e. someday, later, you have to pay it back in 30 years. it will be a little different money. yes , our debt load is increasing, yes, it is unpleasant, but so far it is not critical here, actually, in the question of where to get the money. - one of of answers, this is actually borrowing among the population, that is, that ukrainians still have, relatively speaking, some dollars under their pillow, and they are definitely

kept at the beginning of the war. wars, well, look, first of all, i could have a huge amount of ukrainians somewhere on the highways, there are some hundreds of billions of dollars, this is a myth, yes, there is no such money, certain accumulations, i have a lot of money in banks, now ukrainians, others can be these funds to be used to finance the budget deficit , and that was the idea of ​​the national bank when it raised the interest rate to 25%. actually, what is the opinion of the national bank, he raises the fine by 25%. as a result, banks raise deposit rates and the ministry of finance raises interest rates on military bonds and more money as a result of the population of tarabanks, well, that is, banks will invest public money in these military bonds, this was also

debt financing, but it is even easier in the hryvnia and it is always in the hryvnia for the state it's easier so far put together a mechanism because the ministry of finance refuses to raise interest rates on the domestic debt, it is now placing a bunch of bonds somewhere under 10-11 percent. actually, it cannot be said that this is a market rate, it is much lower than the potential level of inflation, the ministry of finance has its own position on this matter he doesn't want to increase the cost of service, but for now, collect it, relatively speaking, the system when we are trying to direct the money of the public hm actually well, one more thing, what you actually said, the grant revenues are such, there is no need to return one oksana ambassador markarova said that more than 6 billion more dollars should enter ukraine in the near future, what they will go to and how much it will be, well,

the solution to the problems, well, look, this money will go to the same financing. that's all. the only problem is that when all our western partners give us funds, for some reason it is written in them. i don’t know , in fact, no one gives me an answer. why is it so ? can finance social welfare, but this money should not be directed to military needs, if the problem is actually for ukraine, because you yourself noted that amount, the further we go, the more we spend on the war , because, including because of the fact that we import a lot of weapons and it also costs e it is a large amount and it slows down the pace of our receiving aid a little, because the plus of the government of the ministry of finance must be shown to our western partners. look, this money went to a pension on social welfare, but in no case not to finance military operations there in including payments to the military. and now it means a lot

to life because, as mr. president said, we have 700,000 military personnel in one way or another , and all these people now receive high salaries and this money has to be taken from somewhere, but for some reason it turned out that way that it is not possible to finance the military actions of the army with the funds of the western partners and so on. this is probably from the point of view. it is probably a certain moral compass of such a civilized europe that it is not possible to finance murder and so on. and so on. unfortunately, we very often face such position, she is a bit pacific and this delays aid to ukraine in any direction, including as we see about the financial situation, there are now different survey estimates, in particular, it seems that the world bank conducted a survey in ukraine now and then, as far as i remember, more than 60%, businesses have resumed their work, but all of them have rather difficult ss expectations. well, literally, i can visit

my friends, that is, i will not name them, but one, for example, says that for now he pays all salaries, but the thought begins to think about a reduction or a reduction in wages is already possible from next month, but for example there are others and i know them, the business is not very big, there are about 15 employees and they are engaged in what they produce, they are engaged in this, what, what they produce in fact, craft meat production and the problem is that they work only with fresh meat, i will tell you a little more if if if you don't mind and the question is simply that in fact farmers are now starting to refuse to to grow, for example, pork for the next year, and they understand that this is a problem, that is, the problem is not that no one will buy this meat, the problem is that they have a question about whether they will be able to have enough fresh meat

next year, it also shows how it is now, what is happening with these chains, and what can be done about it, in principle, so that this business does not stop, nothing can be done. in fact, if your friend pays his wages in full , then his employees are very lucky i'm thinking right now mainly now the number of ukrainians those who worked work in the private sector receive much lower salaries than they received before the war , that is, while the war is going on, you will not do anything, the weather forecast is -30%, and here everything is arranged in our country, it has not been like this for a very, very, very long time the level of the drop is actually the war, the ports are closed due to the fact that our expert cannot go in those volumes for the last month. for example, we send about 50% year to year, so this is a significant drop and there is nothing to compensate for it, and while the war is going on actually we are nothing we don't compensate. well, that's why it's a blow to the economy, it's a blow to the economy and prospects. it can

lead to migration, including those businessmen who may decide that it's okay here for a few more years. nothing will happen in these few years. i am rebuilding my new business in europe, this is a problem and it is simply physically impossible to solve it while the war is going on, but it is physically unimportant, well actually there are just things that are critical and when i think, for example, about what a farmer is like now the cost price cannot be 15,000 hryvnias of some grain there, and he sells it for five, and it is still a problem to sell it or get it somewhere, and this will mean that he is very serious about wanting to do sowing for the next year, not to mention that again yes loans i understand it is not a cheap thing now and the sun is a rather difficult situation and this year i understand that everyone will calmly survive without problems more or less yes but the next year can be just a shock no this year

has already become a shock and there will be problems already this year we you won't do anything here, but really nothing, yes. that is , this is the main dependence, the dependence on the continuation of the war, the longer the war goes on, the more the blow to the economy, especially. yes, the longer the war goes on, the more, for example, the depopulation of ukraine, not only because of the fact that the best there is that points of ukraine are dying at the front, but because a lot of people can stay outside the borders of ukraine and again everything now the economy is a function that depends on one variable length how long will the war last and avoid all these problems that we are now we are discussing in the economy it is simply physically impossible, yes, it is impossible, yes, in peacetime. we could complain there about state policy, corruption, certain things, and this is also an important and important problem. but now i am this huge factor of war, and we can simply state these facts. it won't get better yes, as long as the war is actually going on even now, even now

, even all the problems, when you list the situation, everything is much better than we imagined in at the beginning of march, so yes, yes , the same consumer activity of people is being restored despite the fact that people there are cutting people's incomes, despite inflation, everything is the same, we can see from the shopping centers that we have that consumer activity is recovering in many regions of ukraine. january that is, it is much better than we all expected, but the problems that you listed well, this is a problem, yes, people have to realize now, no one will help them yes, and you just have to accept well, you will come further to make decisions based on that well, it will just become just me i certainly not a specialist but it seems to me that there are critically important sectors where there is a high added value of products that are created and how to support them well, just so that they, for example, as

you do not support now, well, it is simply impossible to support the state supports now, how long will this answer be accepted er, we will have a conference in lugano soon. and er, what can we expect from it, can there be any breakthroughs? how should ukraine transform its position? for the first time, i saw this in various european cities, and she they usually relate to the development of ukraine and reforms in ukraine, now it is simply burdened by the war, which means the reconstruction plan, and mainly this year there will be a conversation about proformats about the reconstruction models of ukraine after the war, these are very important conversations, including because the reconstruction there is effective it itself must be revised and prescribed while it is still going on or at the moment when the war stopped so that investment projects immediately started and went immediately and there is a lot of preparatory work from the registration of technologies like this

will work on the very legislative provision of this because in fact, we in kyiv have all seen this bridge that goes to troeshchyna for 30 years and it has been going and no way why because i started to build it and then i started thinking about what to do with the people who are sitting there uh, what about their dachas and they say yes no we are in the center of the city in the dacha go after yours between the bridge and there will be a lot of such problems when we talk now about reconstruction yes because as it is necessary to build up the whole town it is necessary to rebuild sometimes the bridge and small or districts cities or need to build new ones roads, for example, new railway tracks, so that they go to europe, and this will all face certain problems, and whether the problems are not at the legislative level should be resolved already back then. of course, now the servant will not be a battle of ambitions . next and that will be all, the ukrainian authorities will emphasize that give us money, turn away, the west will say no, no, no, uh, reforms, and we ourselves control them and

finance them ourselves, uh, there will be a lot of things. yes, but actually this is part of the work. the conference is unlikely to become some kind of big explosion in some results right after this conference no it won't yes but it is part of the big work on restoration well thank you very much mr. sergiu sergiu fursa to us uh, there was a live broadcast well and thank you have a nice day well we continue oleksiy holobutsky, a political technologist, and our next interlocutor falls, oleksiy. good day to you. good day. i remember that you are also an expert on belarus and the author of a book about belarus. oleksiyya actually got it, i'll start with belarusian history , ah, a lot. something has changed, let's say lukashenka's rhetoric. there have been a lot of all

kinds of aggressive statements, and here there is garik kasparov, for example, he is russian, he is a positionalist, russian by origin. in russian, soviet, let it be soviet, but less with that word, since he seems to have been living in the united states for a long time, which is not much of a russian anymore, well , less with that, but he says that he predicts that literally the last days have passed and he will dare after all the belarusian army, by order of lukashenka, invades ukrainian territory, and belarus will join this war, this is your position. belarus has been involved in this special war operation from the very beginning. russian troops have entered its territory. ukraine is being shelled from its territory . in a state of war, and formally with ukraine, well, roughly speaking, you understand, there are

, er, such assets of putin, such as belarus, which is completely dependent on russia, that is, without russia and belarus, the end of the lukashir regime, the end full yes, but based on the psychological, how do you understand putin's property, sometimes you can understand him, because he, well, roughly speaking, lukashenko is closer to him than anyone from a-a of those who, for example, manage the post-soviet states, this person has been in office since 904, yes, it is terrible just a period for a european country, and secondly, there is some kind of emotional connection with lukashenka, connected with the fact that, after all, lukashenko was also involved in the akgb, which, at least, formally involved, yes, that is there are some such psychological ones moments that did not allow putin for a long time to

simply force lukashenka to do what he wants, and apparently this time is running out, but putin seems to have, apparently, some idea that in that war it cannot be used, well, how to say it, it cannot be used the russian people literally, we understand this word that this is such a historical historical let's say the memory of the historical past of the war, so to speak, which ended with the plan of the russian empire and he is trying, we constantly see yes according to the names of the prisoners of war the dead are the buryats, tugintsia, dagestan , representatives of some other a-a peoples. yes, but there are not enough russians there, so there are belarusians,

such as the active, which can be equipped and which do not formally belong to russia, yes, it still belongs to russia when it will belong to its own because it is not the russian people and it must be used because now the situation is such that putin is about to solve some tactical problems that we do not know, yes, it is possible that it is the capture of donetsk, he is from luhansk, he has already captured it practically, yes, he is left there in the donetsk region , this is what he will not leave ukraine without, and he will not agree and will not go to any negotiations , we must realize that without the capture of the entire donetsk and luhansk regions, there is no question of anything there point of view, he will give up give up give up and probably he already has a critical situation, he needs well, as many people tell him that all these processes must be finished by the winter and he will not have time to raise reserves, nothing, but to give up 20-30 thousand belarusians well, we understand, yes we

we understand there. our propaganda explains that the belarusian army is very weak, and the russian army was supposedly very strong, especially at the beginning, so that the belarusians do not want to fight. well, i also doubt that many of those who are now being thrown there are no longer about volunteers, but about regular the russian troops are right there, all 100% just want to fight and die in ukraine, maybe no one will ask on the street , they will just leave and we will be forced to withdraw our reserves in these directions, and of course it will be, well, this is serious support for those actions which the russian army is doing now is relatively successful . yes, we must understand that from the point of view of propaganda it is successful. they asked very slowly there with terrible losses, but they are advancing like this, that is, two moments

. i wanted to clarify, on the one hand, i absolutely agree with you that yes, for sure and not all russians terribly want to fight there, there are some huge 20 thousand dollars each, there is information that they pay to somehow not go to this war, this is all clear, but on the other hand side of this is impossible. well, i think it can be denied that the majority of russians support this war and at least have a hostile attitude towards ukrainians. this is what was recorded in sociology. this is what everyone who has encountered the russians knows. will it work the same with belarusians or do belarusians have some slightly different and different identity because they are not clear somewhere i met the same somewhere abroad as tourists and it seemed to me that after all they are a little different and they are friendly to the ukrainians. when they hear the ukrainian language, they can

come up to speak, for example, and be tied up . well, i don't know, they are actually the same belarusians with whom we communicate here, they claim that the majority of belarusians sympathize with the ukrainians in this war, well, at the same time, they cite different numbers, well, some of their own data sp- from 30 to 60%, they sympathize with ukraine in this war, this will also certainly happen in a moral spirit. yes, of course , we are now talking about the possibility of a photo, as you understand , i say again when the russians when 90 in 9% of the people they said that russia would never invade ukraine in the version that it happened, yes, on february 24, that does not mean that it was not necessary to predict this and consider various options, and they also predicted that not in 3-4 days they go to kyiv, they will change the government, and the war there will end. they will lead us to wish for everything, and the same with belarusians. well, what about the consequences ? of course, i predict a problem. of course

, the identity of belarusians is different from russians, and russians are different. you understand identity. chechens fighting in ukraine yes, he is fighting in order to continue to have. that is, it is such a very complex feudal surgical system. supposedly, the russians captured chechnya and won, but they pay tribute to the chechens very well. and in order for this dalnya to continue, uh, it was given from russia, from moscow, you have to throw chechens on the war with ukraine must be understood. that's the way they are, so to speak. this is the approach when we talk about how russians hate ukrainians. well, you understand. it's one thing when you hate. and that's normal. i met them in moscow and in st. petersburg. it is the russians who feel hatred or rejection or some kind of inferiority. well, they have a great value in relation to ukrainians, but the beet goes to the slavic people and then

you will fight in ukraine, that is, he can explain the hatred there, but for the first time because there is poverty the nose is such that there is basically no other social forest, there is 40-50% unemployment there, and 70-80% for the generation that is fighting there. unemployment is simply nothing for them to break through, it is the only opportunity to make money simply yes and it is not possible er, there are a lot of riches, moscow, for example, yes, in which salaries are the european average, in principle, yes, and tuva buryatia is absolutely poor, there is dagestan and belarus . he is popular and he is moving this war, i am 100% sure , including based on these considerations, and lukashenko is no longer up to date, he

lost his legitimacy in this in the 20th year, he is nobody here, roughly speaking, he would not be here bayonets of russian russian money and so on, he would no longer be the president, so here the question is exclusively for the first time to cover up lukashenko himself, what he had in general, there are no longer even thoughts that he will be able to sit on two chairs again . belarusian people, well , it’s clear. listen, i say once again, uh, out of 20,000 to 30,000 to the army that they can throw into ukraine. well, i think that a third and a half can carry out the orders . will shoot them in the back, for example, there would be many examples in the history of russia, in history when people did not want to fight, but they fought. there is another question that i also want to ask about this . and

to weaken the ukrainian possibilities, in particular, in the future, there is a counteroffensive or so on and so on, it’s just, well, it’s unknown how it will all turn out, but on the other hand, if, for example, this invasion takes place, i’m just trying to think it through now. for example, it will have very catastrophic, well , suddenly very catastrophic consequences precisely for the belarusian army. and for example, it will be accompanied by mass refusals . putin, in particular, the fact that he can actually lose belarus in this way, and lukashenko will be overthrown , well, first of all, not now. it is difficult for me to imagine the situation. i understand that this cannot be predicted by any but after collecting the same number of

people now, after that series of total repressions, the number of people cannot even be compared with the russian ones. you can tighten the nuts, but it is still not relatively easy, that is, he is an asset, he is still in prison or is abroad, they are not dying of hunger and are fed at the expense of russia, they have a more or less normal social and economic situation honestly already against the background of especially war ukraine and this will also be an argument by the way so that is to say that this is because of the fact that 20-30 thousand people were thrown into the war, well, first of all, they were preparing for this, they were preparing for this for four months well, in general, i

will say that ukrainian cities are being shelled from their territory, there are no protests, there are any partisan movements there, but it is difficult to understand here . perhaps putin's certain plan is not only to pull ukrainian troops out of the belarusian club, but also because lukashenko, with his own hands, lukashenko can provoke some nato countries with which he has a border . putin, yes , belarus is a sovereign state with a member of the un, an absolutely normal independent state, and let's see, for example, how nato will react to this, but for this it needs to