so, in order to oppose such a discourse in this, i think there is a big challenge, er, ukraine, and it was not so easy to do, that is, er, you are, er, such a part of the german er, german western public, which er, is precisely about this direction. sorry, sir, you are young, but the reader literally said one more interesting thing. we must make our democracies, our economies sustainable, not forgetting our goals. the hyphen is a world order based on rules and liberal, fair and climate-friendly. of the global economy, that is, european politicians already have an understanding that, after all, there should be an order based on rules, and then the economy and earning money there on oil or russian gas, yes, part of it for the last 4 months

, uh, well, before uh, this big attack of russia on ukraine, there was a little bit of a second position in germany . own interests uh, let's say in this case, the interest of the world is in both directions, and ukraine needs to be included in this discourse, it is possible, for example, to say that uh , what is the biggest scandal in this war itself, probably that uh, russia not only has - er, weapons, and therefore, er, how to define this war of western aid and the behavior of ukraine, er, much that russia is, er, russian, do you understand, nuclear weapons are allowed to me, and in ukraine, on the contrary, they are nuclear proliferation by treaty

it is forbidden to have nuclear weapons. well, that's it here is such a scandalous situation that russia can use this temperature, which is intended to prevent the spread of a nuclear group for expansion, to expand its state territory, this is a scandal just as it illustrates the pastiness of the same this is the behavior of russia for some strange germany for all the affairs of the world, because it can certainly lead many governments in this world to be there to purchase, to purchase, to purchase all the weapons of the masks, to destroy them, to protect themselves from that program they will also start this restoration in time and will not wait for combat training, and of course ukraine must contribute as much as possible to this, one such proposal

that will be with a colleague who is already in limbo, and they did it back in order for ukraine to simplify the rules of e- obtaining a permanent place of residence for, let's say, citizenship for the european union in ukraine, who could, let's say, easily register in ukraine and get residence rights, work, study in ukraine for that in order to contribute to the implementation of these programs to support ukraine, the marshall clan, and all the others, we landed there, and so on, ukraine must, on its part, also make as many layers as possible of a meeting with a salary partner, so that it will work, uh, this is cooperation, and how much is it? do you estimate the amount of this financial aid that can be provided to ukraine at the moment? well, come up, it will be a large sum, which will

amount to as much as i understand, a hundred in billions, and what exactly will the amount be ? say eh for ukraine probably still needed how can eh try to use the tool how can the field be effectively used for example there is already an old idea of ​​insurance i think it has already been discussed this is eh the topic of foreign investment insurance in the country of private investors eh and insuring these investors often from the political risk of a period of martial law so that, well, they often and quickly came to ukraine, eh, who received a speed bump so that they could be sure that if they lose their investments due to war that uh-eh it will be you it's just one such idea how can it be effective these all means are

ways for ukraine thank you address umland political scientist analyst of the stockholm center for the study of eastern europe was in direct contact with our studio thank you for your participation and now we will connect to the conversation andrii sukharin, a political analyst of the democratic initiatives foundation, andrii sukharinov i apologize on behalf of yaka kuchereva, we welcome you, mr. andrii, do you hear good from us? well, let's talk about demographic threats due to the war and missile terrorism, how to return ukrainians home and prevent a demographic crisis, almost seven and a half more than 7 million ukrainians have left the country, and five more than 5 million people are still

abroad as of mid-june. this is an even higher percentage, yes. what are your assessments of this process and the threat of a demographic crisis in the country after the end of the war and now during it ? well, there is a very simple answer, a very short answer, how to avert a demographic crisis, a short answer and simple in no way. unfortunately, the demographic crisis is waiting for us. it will be quite big. the question is how big it will really be. what scale will it be? that is, whether it will be big or extremely big and gigantic. that is, the fact that it will be is not open to any doubt. here it depends on how we will be able to take advantage of the challenges that follow along with the

demographic crisis and whether we will be able to somehow use it in a positive way and what percentage of the working population has someone calculated if there, 5 million will not return and will remain outside of ukraine, in fact, there are no such data so far, the state does not have any, nor do the research companies , why? chernihiv oblast, sumy oblast have understood in other regions, now they are continuing, and the situation was different in may and now it is changing again. in fact, it is impossible to record all this, the only thing we can say is that this percentage is extremely significant and in fact, russia there is causing losses in ukraine not

only directly through the war, not through collateral losses, but also this demographic crisis, the crisis that is now approaching ukraine, it is largely caused by the actions of russia and russia's aggression andriy, and someone has conducted some sociological measurements of research about this recently about people's intentions to stay or not to stay after the end of the war or in case of prolongation of the war outside the borders of ukraine. at the beginning of the war, such a percentage was going to return, but after four months, the percentage changed. in which direction exactly, what assessment do you personally give to this dynamic, er, yes, there were surveys that related to ukrainian refugees abroad, the ukrainian diaspora, er, at the beginning of the war, the

absolute majority of almost 90% of them actually returned. and the polls that appeared now were about ukraine and they asked and in fact in this poll they asked the question do you plan for the future of your children in ukraine in case the prolongation of the war here is very hard figures that in fact half of the people do not plan for the future of children here in ukraine if the war continues if the threat is from russia further, that is, without the demilitarization of the identification of russia, it will be very difficult to keep people here and if the war ends in the conditions that are needed accordingly, in ukraine, the share of people who are ready to consider their children here is growing significantly, and it also reaches almost 90%. and these are good indicators because migration is

normal. people also leave them. it is normal and in a normal time is a time they are looking for a better fate, but as long as the war lasts, there will be a direct threat to life until then, in fact, this demographic crisis will deepen because a-a desire for security, a desire to protect oneself, one's children, from a threat to life is one thing of the basic human aspirations which simply cannot be ignored well, any mother is happy where the child is happy and the children are happy here too the question is that the longer the war drags on, the further it will be autumn, the children will go to school in full and obviously part of the children will go to schools outside their country, and in the comfortable countries of western europe, and this

comfort zone will spread, that is, to a greater part of the spheres of life of the children and mothers who went there, the threat is purely of getting used to this, to this european comfort zone, how big is it, i ask, even that i even raised the fear that part of the people in europe do not need to because i that this will somehow deepen the demographic crisis uh, again, the demographic crisis will be in any case only a question of its scale and why i i say that we need to focus rather on some challenges and those aspects that we can use, we can use the fact that we have formed a huge ukrainian diaspora, which we will need to support culturally and fight for these people to promote

ukrainian cultural product, so that these people promote the ukrainian agenda, so that they are ambassadors of ukrainian influence, just as jews are for israel, just as conditional italians are for italy and for many other countries, because these people are uh, including that unfortunately, we are losing and we are deepening the demographic crisis, but we are strengthening our positions in another context, so uh, an obvious part of the people will not return, and this is absolutely normal, this should be expected, but there will be absolutely no such thing everyone will return, but there is no need to make this a tragedy, instead, uh, still try to turn it into a plus for ukraine and the way that will enable us to become a stronger country , andrei, this mass exodus of mostly female citizens of ukraine, since the exodus of men

prohibited until the age of 60, it can radically change the ratio of these genders . i mean the balance of the percentages of the male and female population that live in ukraine by sex. i mean that after the end or during the war, there will be a much higher percentage of men than women in is this a problem for ukraine, he has now changed, that is, now it is clear that in fact, men cannot, from men of working age, they cannot leave , and this situation is now different between articles but usually such situations are normalized in a few years after such after the end of the cause, in fact, we have repeatedly observed world history that there were certain distortions in the direction of one of the genders depending on the

e-e situation, but after the cause of such distortions disappeared, the situation became plus-minus usual and here i think that in a few years there will hardly be a big difference in the distribution between the articles , it is also worth understanding that for ukraine such a situation is not new in certain aspects, of course on a much smaller scale, but let's say these, let's say, the western regions of ukraine in the 90s and early 2000s suffered greatly from a-a labor emigration there as well. what is interesting is that women left most often, so that there was generally quite atypical and labor migration. but again, at a certain point - this is a situation er plus-minus has balanced out, so i wouldn't start looking here, but i'm looking for a big problem in the difference er distribution between the articles of andriy, but regarding the

strength of ukrainian families, how does this situation have this strength, because i know cases when there are families here both a man and a woman remained, and they are here in ukraine now, in the conditions of the war, they separated or at least separated, this situation, on the contrary , separated them, there are cases when women left there, men stayed here, but their relations improved unity is an influence that affects the strength of families, on the one hand, it can be said that each case is individual, because it is really impossible to predict absolutely everything, and in each specific case, the situation may differ somewhere, the relationship has improved somewhere it got worse somewhere, uh, everything became fine, but if we talk statistically. if we talk about certain

patterns, it is obvious that everything destroys the family, if we talk about the majority and about statistical significance . detachment it always leads to the fact that in most cases problems appear in the family, there is a risk of the destruction of this family . is it formally recorded as a jump in divorces after the war or will it not be recorded formally or will it just be stretched in time but most likely it will cause the destruction of more bays than before the improvement of let's say

the situation uh a certain amount that is, the negative consequences will obviously be more after the end of hostilities and war, how quickly is the return process of those people who decided that they should return, it's months , years, decades, it's impossible to say anything unequivocally here, because this is the first such big one the conflict is not a conflict. yes, let's call a spade a spade, and in europe for a very long time, the first war in such modern conditions is those wars that can be used to analyze how the situation developed. these are mostly wars in less prosperous societies , wars with other conditions, and there are quite a few it is difficult

to take examples from there, because most often they, er, did not have signs of citizenship or such. well, ukraine cannot take an example from there, because we want languages, so it is impossible to say unequivocally, but i talked about the fact that these consequences will rather be long-term than short-term, if the war had ended in march, conditionally, it is possible that the consequences would have been presented sooner because people would like to return, and for us, it depends on the situation. life people there lose faith, on the contrary, they gain faith, and this is why these changes are accumulating and every day, and

they are becoming more and more. therefore, we need to accept that this has already happened, as a distance, it is not will stop that these demographic changes do not stop, they are not restored there, they are not back to normal there in 5-10-15 years they are forever and in many aspects and again focus on what it can give us and what positives we can extract from it thank you andriy sukharyna, political analyst of ilko kucherev 's foundation for initiatives. thank you for an interesting conversation for participating. they talked about psychology, sociology, the ukrainian f-factor of ukrainian refugees, and when ukrainians will be able to return to the motherland, and whether all of them will want to. well, god forbid so that the majority now have some information about sumy oblast, tonight the night in sumy oblast was calm, but after eight o'clock in the morning the enemy shelled the

shalygin community in sumy oblast, the head of the region dmytro zhivytskyi was informed about this on the night of july 4. it was quiet, but at eight o'clock in the morning the shalygi community came under mortar fire 10 arrivals, said dmytro zhivytskyi , fortunately there are no victims and destruction of the previous one. well, the information from a small town in finnish or finnish is correctly called the republic, it is lapinteranta, it is on the border with russia there they are considering the possibility of creating a nato base in their city after finland joins the alliance, and there were proposals, for example, regarding the airport, it is available if the defense forces want it, the mayor of the city said what a jarva, at the same time, according to the mayor , the antrant has not yet discussed with the defense forces what kind of investment the possible membership in the north atlantic alliance

yarov noted that the promotion of athens' application for membership in nato gives hope to south korea. he mentioned security and confidence for business. rva also expresses the hope that one day the russians will be able to come to the region again. in his opinion , membership in nato does not affect the trips of ordinary people. the city of lapy i lapyn tractor is located approximately 25 km from the russian border. now a nato base may appear there. what is wrong with all the russians? and we congratulate oleg nemchynov, the minister of the cabinet of ministers of ukraine is with us, we congratulate you, mr. olezhychi, can you hear us, i can hear you. good day, it's great , the government is initiating a reform of the reduction of the state apparatus , they talked about the dismissal of officials in ukraine always, however, such conversations usually ended with an increase only in the costs of obtaining the apparatus, the new attempt to reduce civil servants still exists in the form of a concept, the government will present it these days, tomorrow, during the investment forum in the swiss city of lugano

. proposes to reduce the number of ministries of central executive bodies and their employees to combine the functions of ensuring the work of officials of all government bodies and get rid of unnecessary state enterprises, will such a reform allow us to save money from the state budget, we will ask oleg nimchynov, please , look, first of all, you cannot call the reform a reduction. this is categorically wrong. but the reform is that it is really proposed to change the functionality of the state apparatus and to deprive ministries and the central bodies of the executive power of the management function of the state enterprise, as you correctly said, and indeed dozens and hundreds, this is the first, the second point, uh, we are not talking about any specific numbers of the reduction or increase in the number of ministries because the ministry is only a body that forms policies in one or another area from one there to 12 policies now each ministry

therefore covers those presentations that are publicly available on some internet resources from the first proposals of even non-working groups and subgroups that were prepared accordingly. in the final version, the documents about a certain number of ministries of central executive bodies are not mentioned, the second and third are really proposed to seriously change the functionality, we envisage the formation of a strong center of the government based on the secret of the cabinet of ministers of ukraine in order to deprive the ministry of the extraneous powers that they have in order for the ministry to be the nucleus that actually forms this or that policy, and the central bodies of the executive power that are formed by the inspection agencies services, they either implemented or controlled this policy, so in this case it is actually about bringing the state apparatus and the state machine under martial law to that the real picture that the country needs now

so that a civil servant does not manage some state enterprise but forms or implements policy, and only together with this, a plan of investment projects for the reconstruction of ukraine will be presented in lugano, switzerland, how much money ukraine can expect as a result of this forum and what kind of the plan, which investment projects are we talking about? can you contact us? i can’t get a hold of you. today and tomorrow it is taking place in lugano, it was conceived as the fifth international conference on reform issues in ukraine, it was previously held last year in vilnius, lithuania, and once again i want to thank the swiss government for reformatting and this will be a conference on selection issues , it will be just such a fundraising event on who will be presented with the results of the recovery council, which worked on their projects in 24 groups, and separately there was a recovery group that prepared these projects, they will be presented

today, tomorrow, they concern both the investment component and the public component, that is, they will be offered to states or groups of states to rebuild entire regions or bring them to a normal state, we previously have a statement , for example, from e.e. denmark regarding aid to mykolaiv oblast from great britain and aid to kyiv oblast from states - beams that help zhytomyr region, it is difficult to talk about kharkiv region, there are quite a lot of battles there, but also this is being considered now in our country according to the most conservative estimates damage to the economy and infrastructure of 600 billion dollars was caused. these are broad estimates , including indirect ones, talking about a trillion dollars. of course, we cannot expect that all these funds will be provided by donors, we also count on the freezing of the assets of the russian federation and on further reparations after the end of the active phase of hostilities by

olezhe. i read the interview, a sneaky comment by shmal, the last one. he said that now our main priorities for the development of investments, both internal and external, are the processing industry and the industrial complex uh, what can we decipher? and what else can we talk about, what other industries are locomotives for the economy, we can talk about now, please pay attention, these are the projects that are implemented together with partners from nato countries and friendly countries, but regarding processing, i can say that on last week, the government adopted a special program within the framework of the great block of six e exchange productions related to the project there is work that will stimulate the processing industry , in particular, it will be possible to receive assistance there up to 16 to 16 million uah. i am afraid to make a mistake with the numbers now

is there a small enterprise that wants to invest in the processing of agricultural products and they can demonstrate that they are already existing enterprises, apart from the fact that there will be a grant policy, a grant program for micro-businesses, then the processing itself will have to function separately within the framework of special lending and there will be a plus on it the expanded e-e microcredit program, which has already existed for a few a-a in a few years 5-7-9, allows an authorized bank with compensation from the government e interest rate to support business in support of these projects in us, you know that a large part of exports is blocked due to the blocking of sea ports, and therefore rural processing in the territory of ukraine is extremely important in order for us to have a final product that can be exported by land or consumed within the country thank you oleg, i can't help but ask this question, our channel is not our channel

, eh, our viewers have initiated a collection of signatures under a petition to return our television channel espresso and channel five to the air the direct petition has finally gathered 25,000 signatures, now the cabinet of ministers seems to have 10 days to consider this petition, can you correct me, what is the fate of petitions in general, how are they considered, at what time, and who then makes the decision, please, well, in particular , in this particular case, i think that , accordingly, the relevant ministry will these are conclusions for consideration by an authorized body, if it is a cabinet petition, then according to our country, if it is a presidential petition, then according to the president, within 10 days, the consideration will take place i'm not ready to tell you, because i have n't come across this in my work yet, gentlemen. thank you. returning to the issue of banks and investments, everything depends on the value of money, yes, well, loans, loan money . i read the last interview with shmygelyalb.ua, he complained there that when the national bank raised the interest

rate to 25% from 10 to 2.5 times, it did not consult with the cabinet in any way, well, as if it is an independent body, it does not necessarily have to consult but nevertheless, there must be some general team play how is the game going in the team along the lines of the cabinet of ministers and so on i am asking the national bank, in fact, it is difficult for me to comment on this, because this is exclusively a matter of the ministry of finance, the ministry of economy, but because it is not an allegedly independent body, it is really an independent body , to confirm the words of the prime minister that we really learned about it already from a public report at 14: 00 on the day when it was raised, but it is necessary to understand that the national bank carries out its policy and of course that the government would perhaps like to be a little different, especially from the point of view of ensuring the social sector of the economy and financial resources but it seems to me that such narrow topics should be commented on by the minister of finance, the chairman of the national bank, or the deputy prime minister of the minister of economy

, in general, in general, about the cost