this particular historical moment of time in independence, will the trailers be shot with this price if there is a tax break, this marginal revenue is huge, if there are no tax breaks, it will be large, but not as significant as the tax, that is, everything is exactly more than there 60 hryvnias, they will not put it, of course, and mr. oleksiy, it is an important moment, er, less than a minute to answer, please, what can happen next with the ukrainian economy in your opinion, if the war is in the form in which it is currently going on, with the potential er, improvement of the front line, yes and the advantage is already on the side of our armed forces. what will happen to the economy and business? the fate

of the ukrainian economy is now in our hands, that is, in the hands of our government. which we observe well, they actually cannot lead to significant economic growth and we have to understand that after the war and if we do not ensure the rate of economic growth at the level of 10% per year, then we will never reach even our own state of the sample of 2021, i.e. we need after the war on powerful economic growth we need to start the economic engine at full power a-and for this we need models ahead that the growth of the economy in principle is to do this is known but everything and thank you for helping to understand these complex on economic issues, oleksiy kushchik, an economist and financial analyst, was with us. most of the active hostilities will end by the end of this year. of the president's office, mykhailo podolyak, agreed with the forecast of the head of intelligence, kirill budanov, insists that the war will end on ukraine's terms, whatever in any case, with the return of the temporarily

uncontrolled territory of our state, only russia's loss in ukraine is so significant, significant , tangible, that is, when it leaves the territory of ukraine, it will allow russia to become on the path of transformation within the country by relieving the global security system of the risks generated by the putin elite of russia in this way. to talk about our security, about the latest statements coming from the kremlin and about our responses to these statements, actually our actions, what are we going to do next, mr. sergey, i congratulate you, i congratulate you, then i want you to comment on this. well, first of all, british intelligence is talking about what they see now is some operational pause in the east, the kremlin is also talking about an operational pause, and it also says that

they are currently using an insignificant potential, but if ukraine will continue to use international support and will beat with the weapons that are supplied to us, they say they will use their full potential, actually, the kremlin is bluffing and regarding this operational pause, let's go in order operational pause operational pause yes, there is such a term in operational art which means that in a certain area of ​​the front, the enemy a-a switches from offensive actions e to the defense in order to raise its reserves e-e to carry out the provision of troops e-e to bring additional weapons and military equipment for further offensive actions if he succeeds or if the operational situation will allow it to be done , the operational pause in no way means that the enemy is reducing combat activity, and the confirmation of this is the

rather intense shelling along this or most of the front line during the last part of the days . thus, the operational pause is a kind of episode that should not even be paid attention to and in no way weaken our defense and attention to the enemy, well, that is, the enemy needs this operational pause now, this indicates that they were exhausted when there were battles for severodonetsk, they said sechansk, without a doubt, without a doubt, they need replenishment , because the intensity of them was extremely high, the enemy was exhausted, and in the sense of personnel and in the sense of expenses, there were enough supplies and he lost weapons. and in order to pull up reserves and weapons and pull up ammunition, he needs a certain a certain time to do it immediately they do it we are very interested in order to pull up the reserves to

complete our units take somewhere to recruit more soldiers well you know it depends on which they set the following tasks for themselves, that is, the operational pause can be from e-e week to a -a month. there will be forces, for example, for example, for an attempt to break through in the bakhmut area, additional forces will also be needed. such a standard value that is considered in operational calculations eh a-a last week was very generous to destroy their warehouses and this slows down the pace of their recovery you know

eh we were very generous but we only struck 20 strikes and in operational art there is such a term as, uh, dispersal and echeloning of stocks. in this way, you know, we hit 20 objects. if i'm not mistaken. well, according to the latest data, that's what i've been following, but this uh, it doesn't affect the general situation so far, if the intensity our shelling will continue at the same pace. of course, the enemy will to some extent have problems with resupply . situation, that is, the green light is already on, it is not getting brighter for us, but we are not moving yet and we do not see changes, but changes will definitely come and those hypers that reach

us and another system of armed combat equipment that they pass, fitting into the concept of so-called non- contact combat, and they will allow to change the situation there, but the enemy still remains strong enough to concentrate certain forces and measures, and means. well, you understand. thousands of kilometers of the front, he can maneuver reserves, he can reinforce the another direction and try to carry out their offensive plans in different directions to what extent it is possible for him. well, we see in kharkov where they are trying to advance in other directions. they are now using, according to piskov, this wording is a bluff. and this is not what they were in that, you know, there is a concept of arithmetic calculations, that is, when we say that the armed forces of the russian federation consist of approximately one million 350,000, they concentrated approximately 300,000 in our direction, it

looks like yes, for the average citizen, yes, of course, we don’t use much, but we also need to understand the concepts of quality calculations and quality, quality of staffing, that is, russia threw this war that it really did not expect and they in no way did they expect that the war would last so long with their elite units, so to restore approximately the same quality of the summer units , they need time, well. years for such things er when there were strikes on the pskov landing division on the gray sea marines and in another way by the basin in this way in this way er russia has arithmetical resources but it has very limited qualitative resources in order to use them in hostilities against ukraine, they are playing this card, you know, i have

such a conviction that they are playing this card , and unfortunately the situation is unfolding. so we can already see today that the mobio training was continued until the 16th, unfortunately, they continue to concentrate we we continue to observe the concentration of aviation equipment and the strengthening of the intensity of this combat training of aviation units in particular. that is, there is practice of actions and er and fighter aviation practice of landing actions, that is, if we take the classics of national security and expand the division of threats to national security, we see the whole range of factors that indicate threats to the national security of ukraine from the side of belarus to date , with the exception of one or even two, and these two factors are an additional concentration of ground forces and means in this direction of the front, that is, it is

necessary understand that the belarusian army will not be independent, you see. without hope, it cannot do this, but if it will be part of the so-called shock component of the united group of russia and belarus. accordingly, we can predict the possibility of using such units in this direction, although there is also such a factor of geography, which significantly limits the possibilities of a large-scale offensive precisely in the volyn , rivne, and zhytomyr directions. to understand that the distances there are quite large and we are primarily talking about the important railway communication that connects us with poland , we are talking about the berry of the sary-korosten and further on kyiv, that is, the enemy will try to strike first of all on this communication, then lutsk will be next in line

, and then lviv is possible , ternopil. well, you understand that the situation is today, and thank god, today is july 9 on february 23, that is, and we are ready for such a suddenness they will not reach and we have more powerful air defense systems that are already extremely effective, so there is a growing threat, in my opinion, regarding the use of aviation in such a chaotic regime, you know, they will try to to apply but to enter the airspace that is protected by our air defense system, bombs and missiles will be launched outside of it or from a high altitude, the accuracy of strikes on the object will definitely suffer from that, but the threat to the civilian population will increase because it is impossible to predict where it will fall a bomb is very difficult. well, if you look at social research , then in the russian federation, unfortunately, the majority

of the population supports this so-called special operation, but if we talk about the population of belarus 90% of belarusians are exactly the opposite. they are against their country entering the war, as possible. i asked such an expert how it is possible to maintain the fighting spirit of the army when 90% of the population is against it. well, you know, i also said that belarus will not conduct a war on its own. no offensive actions, it can carry out this in well, sorry, in cooperation with russian units , that is, when belarusian units will be involved together with russian ones, and sorry, just in this case, having a clear understanding and mentality and the specifics of the training of the belarusian army and the ability to use a wide range of coercion to participate in hostilities from the point of view of the russian army, as this factor of unwillingness or unwillingness of the

belarusian population . will block the road, and in this regard i can give you a very simple example from our history with you from our modern times, when we know numerous facts that people in the occupied territories of luhansk and donetsk regions were simply pulled out of basements once apartments well, tell me, many of them switched to our side, many of them seemed to be not there, well, the people are the same well, to put it mildly, they do not want to participate in that war, instead, the reaction was unequivocally, they are fighting as excuse me public meat and uh, i there will be something from the belarusians, there will be the same story under the curtain. i want to ask about your forecast, which she gave before that, they talked about the fact that a large supply of american weapons to ukraine could happen as early as december.

promises statements uh and so on no no i fully support because you know it does not depend on the refusal of the analysis or our wishes with you there are certain procedures that we cannot bypass these procedures that also apply to the beginning of the fiscal year in the united states it is the first of october and passing certain tender procedures and approving the distribution there and so on and so on. well, elementary logistics that take, i'm sorry, at least a couple of weeks and plus, let's not forget that after all the united states is such a rather serious hmm problem for us because the load on logistics increases many times and well, obvious objective delays can occur during this very period , so i do not change my point of view and believe that everyone will try to help us available methods, but taking into account the objective factors,

we can count on such a large-scale delivery only in the time i indicated, or even somewhere in january in february. until then, whose weapons can we count on? so we will get quite a lot, if we even take it, we can set ourselves the goal of calculating how much ammunition is allocated to us only for howitzers of 155 mm caliber, based on the calculation that a howitzer can fire 1,500 shots, then for the entire set of howitzers that we have already received, we have a-a full amount of ammunition that can be used and we are constantly counting on additional ammunition plus other weapons systems, we are talking about canadian armored personnel carriers and polish crabs and additional howitzers, that is, the weapon suits us.

even the tank that we have today already allows us to effectively cope with the tasks set, and this applies not only to long-range artillery, but even small arms that are suitable . i wouldn't be such a pessimist. already today, after almost five months of hostilities, we see that in fact, in all parts of the front, the enemy is no longer conducting active offensives of actions, but rather tries to hold positions or even, in some areas, retreats, well , blocking off from us with massive artillery fire, which is also evidence of a certain weakness of the enemy or insufficient concentration and concentration of his forces and means. i thank you for your explanations serhiy grabskyi a military expert was with us live , we will redrill, we will sew, we will win and shield news

, together we are strong unconquered cities of ukraine, this is a cozy and comfortable kharkiv, a city of students of science and industry, a city that dates back to ancient times was repeatedly attacked by tatars passed both into the hands of the bolshevik invaders and would have given to the german fascists, but kharkiv persevered and kept ukraine in its heart then and now kharkiv unconquered because of the war in ukraine, all the stadiums fell silent what was broken by russian shelling explosions

of russian rockets and russian phosphorus bombs what the screams of ukrainian women and the tears of ukrainian children broke the silence of the majority of russian athletes , this silence continues to kill ukrainians ukrainian stadiums fell silent however, we are athletes the whole world should not be silent, calls on everyone to support boyko of russian athletes of national teams and teams while the war in ukraine continues, support ukraine on the sports front, silence kills with the support of the ministry of youth and sports of ukraine, those

who vainly know the value of human life 24/7 that the boys remained alive, they save sometimes doing the impossible, if it is critical for us, then we drive at maximum speed, the best, incredibly strong , who else should we stand up for the defense of our state, our medical angels, guards battalion doctors, here is our front, rebuild it, we will launch it, we will win, that you are not news, together we are strong , president volodymyr zelenskyi announced important news from government officials next week, at the same time , he did not update any details, and the guarantor explained why he fired ambassadors in several countries, this question is, of course, part of anti-diplomatic practice in the czech republic, germany, hungary

representatives of ukraine will be appointed to norway and india in the war. candidates are being prepared by the ministry of foreign affairs on the eve of president volodymyr zelensky dismissed the ambassador of ukraine in germany, hungary, the czech republic, norway and several other countries, the corresponding decrees are published on the website of the head of state, the ambassador to germany, andriy melnyk , was removed from his post. - lanka and bangladesh ihora polikh on the dismissal of ambassadors in the country's city, the influence of international partners on the aggressive policy of russia and negotiations with the kremlin, let's talk further valentyn glykh joins our broadcast, this is a political scientist. greetings. good night, mr. valentin. i want to discuss with you our prospects on the diplomatic front, taking into account the latest news that

volodymyr zelensky released after ukraine in germany, hungary, the czech republic, norway and several other countries. what this means for us is clear. certain nuances with germany and hungary. there are indeed reasons to be dissatisfied with the work of ukrainian diplomats, although again, for example, i am not inclined to exaggerate the responsibility of ukrainian diplomacy for that that the local governments, well, the germans take such a restrained position, and the hungarians take a frankly destructive position , uh, well, because this did not happen there, not in the last two years or not in the last three years, but in general, i must honestly say, i hope that zelensky realizes that er, the diplomatic service of ukraine needs serious reformation , because for many years this er, phenomenon was not considered at all as a kind of sinecure. well, where people just dreamed of going abroad, you know, according to the

soviet tradition, to be a diplomat it's just prestigious, it's prestigious to live abroad, to receive normal salaries, to have everything brought and to decide one's affairs, some personal interests, to be a representative of business interests, and a kind of lobbyist, not state interests, i emphasize, but the private interests of individuals, i don't want to say specifically for these ambassadors. i'm just speaking in general, well, about the phenomenon of the diplomatic service in ukraine, i hope that these are only the first swallows, after which we will have other steps that will lead to the fact that well, it will be serious reformed diplomatic service in ukraine what is serious is that the position of ukrainian diplomacy on the international market will be strengthened. moreover, to date, all the prerequisites for the creation of that are lightning fast, it is a sin not to use the representatives of the diplomatic corps at the crossing

, so if the tasks are paid, you understand these are russian proverbs, you know all the allegories, they deviate from the fact that the years are generalizations, well, it’s the same as what to say there in the final of the world cup in football, there ronaldo is not changing messi, they are not changing, well, they are changing, that is, if only this or that person does not demonstrate effectiveness. well, it would be ordered that such a person can and should be changed, that is, there is nothing so catastrophic here, i do not directly see that such a thing, horror, horror, horror there, well, i have replacement people, it must be honest and soberly answer more than that when we are talking about public service. well, it is necessary to understand that the only criterion there is efficiency, and i emphasize that zelenskyy in his novgorod speech spoke about the fact that for him the only criterion is the tenure of a particular person in a public position capacity and efficiency to be well, the willingness to

work and the ability to be effective, everything else does not play a role there, no matter what the grant, who comes from which family, or our diplomatic dynasty has been formed since the dawn of time, they sit there, well, they just inherit from their great-grandfather, they say idly. it seems to me that yes, this well, it must be changed, but at the same time for the sake of justice, as a person who does not know very many of its graduates of the kyiv international institute of international relations, who later went into public service and became diplomats work at the embassy, ​​so it must be said that there are nuances, urgent wages, there is a huge disparity, i say yes, not very fair, not very proportional, well, it’s all distributed, there are people who openly abuse yes, and they have everything there in essence, and ordinary average workers who, as a matter of fact, are they are the workhorses of these. well, actually speaking, they are underestimated. i still want to talk about it more broadly when the g20 meeting at the ball has

not achieved unity regarding ukraine and has not even done it. i am not talking about the joint photo anymore. i am talking about the communique for according to the results of the meeting, it's not scary that there are no such clear concrete results, no, it's not scary, it's unpleasant, but it's not scary. well, you have to understand that, in principle, the question is that, uh, ukraine has enough allies that support us today. well, but there are countries that, well , express much less willingness to go to rhyme with us, but there is not a single country that is directly russia for this meeting, we already had some plans no, well, we were not represented there by and large . 20 well, that is, we like it, we don't like it , but now ukraine has er-er been cornered let's put it this way , everyone is talking about ukraine now and there are meetings where ukraine is represented and not represented

, the project always had to be understood that if, for example, you look at the situation er-er there er, councils without the un, for example, even these also permanent members cannot er, actually, approve the decision well, because there are certain countries that, well, it’s not that there er support russia, or there sympathize with russia, which simply have their own interests in this issues and pursue their own interests. well, you have to understand that, after all, yes, international politics is a fairly cynical thing. well, when behind you there is a billion of your citizens and their interests. you understand which country i am talking about . you must take into account the consequences of your decisions for this billion of citizens of your own citizens three scenarios of the end of the war from reznikov good will a protracted war to grind and the collapse of the russian federation which is

the most likely for you and if it is within the time limits because the president stated that he would like to end the war by the end of the year but again, taking into account how high the stakes are currently raised well, for now, it is not even visible how the parties should solve this issue at all and not i know how to formalize a victory well, a victory is not formalized, a victory is won, and as of today , a peace agreement is being written by the armed forces of ukraine on the battlefields and depending on the success of our armed forces, the results will be fixed, after all, we will have to sit down at the table and formalize definitely definitely but i repeat that this will happen only when the armed forces of the

russian federation have the ability and fighting capacity to launch hostilities on the territory of ukraine, and the military-political leadership of the russian federation will eventually lose faith in the fact that they can achieve any goals in ukraine through military means well, then. actually speaking, they will be ready for negotiations, well, until then, they will not conduct any negotiations, although well, although they will talk about it, but as long as they are combat-capable on our territory and potentially combat-capable, boring they will throw new and new soldiers into this hell of war, take off their equipment, deconserve it, throw it into battle, and it will be a touch , well, the russian military and political leadership will believe that in this way they will achieve results. well, only the russian troops will lose combat capability well, then yes, they will quickly start waiting for a way to fix the results available at that moment if they will satisfy them well, but at that moment why do we

need it? well, why do we have if our results at that time the moment will not suit us. well, it is unlikely that we will be in the conditions of the loss of combat capability of the russian army on the territory of ukraine, yes, that is, to stop hostilities and fix those results that will not suit us, so here and there as long as the sides keep faith in the fact that through military means they can improve the peace agreement, well , the future of this well agreement, well, that is, this war will continue, so i, well, i'm serious, i'll just repeat it again that the only way to speed up the end of the war is to give ukraine ukrainian the armed forces need weapons that are fast, yes , that is, no. also, you said it grinds, yes, or varshikov said they grind, well, that is, you can grind 140 million of them. you understand that you can

happily stretch it for many years. months are simply shorter, well, first of all, break the will to victory, they are no longer very motivated to fight. well, we see that in some directions there, they will simply abandon their positions and flee, yes, as soon as they appear there, that's it. the weapon we will receive is highly accurate, which allows us to very effectively solve the issue of disposal of this human waste, if there is more of it, they will flee faster, well, this is a normal process, and everything else is simple. thank you, thank you, it is clear that all caesars , may they speed up their gestures of goodwill, she would like there to be as many such gestures as possible, but i will say, i will say so the more they are in pain, the more it prompts them to gestures of good will through pain to this will from pain