there are ships that can launch missile strikes and directly at the exit, let’s say so, on the traverse of the crimea. well, i watched it today. by the way, the turkish side and the un immediately reacted to this strike on the shoulder. ask the russians, they say that they struck a military target. boat , but for me it's a little strange because they destroyed one military boat with four missiles, well , that doesn't happen, it means four missiles. well, as a rule, it's a big ship. especially since these missiles were all for firing at coastal targets. i think that the main, again, the main of these was such a demonstration and the purpose of intimidation to show that russia is as effective as it is blocking our ports, and there will be a lack, but some arguments were found from the side of germany and from the side of the united

nations for them to allow and just ships with grain to leave the ports of ukraine and head to the black sea straits. as far as i know, this work is already in full swing, caravans are being formed somewhere on tuesday, wednesday, maybe already the first caravan can start the movement of sports chornomorsk chornomorsk is for ukraine it is very beneficial because it is economically beneficial and it is beneficial because now the new one is already impressive. well, there is no where to make it, and because of that, you have to do it, but it is like that. then the contract itself. well, this agreement is basically e they do not contain anything outside of international maritime law, that is, ukraine was responsible for its territorial waters of

12 miles. yes, it is there and bears full responsibility for it. there were various conversations that the russians would inspect there and so on. no one this year it will not be done, but a strike is like that, this is normal russian behavior. by the way, they said we don't know who is doing it, now we will figure it out. so when they were asked by the turkish turkish minister of defense, today he reported about this in the mass media. thank you andriy ryzhenko thank you experts of the center of defense strategies i suspect that this is uganda and kiribati there are such countries they bombed the port of odessa well if not in russian the combined fleet and they went to the black sea and started shooting at odessa well i they weren't to imagine that it's not us, it's them, but today they

already say so, we fired missiles, and there was a military facility just there, it's just scary, just schizophrenic, there are terrible stories, there's so much valuable for russia that we need to bomb it immediately, i understand, well, for of the world and uganda, i think, here i am, here i am, and i am a military expert, for these 20 seconds, we went to the economy, yes, vyshylinski gleb , the head of the center of economic strategy in our country, i hope it is already appearing. good health, the panel is going. well, we are today, if this whole day can not all but we will definitely devote a part to these five months of war and to you. then the question is to the economist. from an economic point of view, we are going through this war perfectly bad brilliant very bad, no matter how

you rate ukraine, i do not accept the president or prime minister or ministers there now or deputies, but in principle, the devaluation is the same without such unemployment. it would be possible to do better. what kind of question? actually due to the closing of the ports , nothing could be done about it until recently. and what concerns unemployment, the same is true if the cities are bombarded by hostilities in the occupation or by rocket fire, then it is obvious that this leads to a decrease in production and the number of jobs . from the beginning of the war, if you

look at what happened back in february at the beginning of march, the government did a good job, the national bank was good, then it prepared for the start of the war, on the very first day, the necessary measures were introduced restrictions that allowed the banking system to hold back and carry out payments without any interruptions throughout the war, cards worked, bank accounts worked, payments worked, everything worked and fortunately continues to work just as it did in peacetime, because if it had not happened, if the economy would have it was feared that many people would switch to the mode of cash payments. of course, we would not see that situation now relatively easier than it could be expected from the

scenarios of other wars, but there were some mistakes there were, er, as usual, things happen in ukraine, rather, such populists are not very well thought out, starting from the decision in the first days of the war on february 28 about a significant increase in payments to all employees of the law enforcement agencies there and to all military personnel who, er, are now a very big burden for the budget of the national bank, which is now on the video a-a hmm , this also provokes the mission to a large extent because defense costs now exceed the normal monthly budget revenues before the war and the same applies to the decision on the import benefits

it is clear that in march, many people feared that there would be a shortage of goods in ukraine, accordingly , a system was introduced when, instead of the usual import vat of 20%, many people could pay 2%, the import of used cars was opened without taxes, of which more than 200,000 were imported as a result. then if you remember at some point the cash rate of the hryvnia actually the cash rate of the dollar dropped to 31 one hryvnia 90 kopecks below 32 despite the fact that at that time kyiv was surrounded almost surrounded and the situation was much worse from a military point of view than now and then it began to move actually due to the active purchase of cash in order to bring in these imported cars further accordingly there was a further e-e promotion now the situation is on the one hand for jobs for economic activity of

course significantly better than it was in march, and because they resumed the production of everyone who could resume if the ports still work - this will be a very good boost for agriculture , it will be possible to get enough resources for planting a new crop and granaries actually, and accordingly, this money will start working throughout the entire chain for manufacturers, suppliers of fertilizers, mechanical engineering, everything related to agriculture, but now the situation is more complicated with financial stability, in fact, last week it was very revealing in this regard, this week, which ends today, the increase of the official rate of the hryvnia and the official rate of the dollar to 36 and six from

29 to 25 actually showed that this model when we have a fixed exchange rate, but at the same time, very significant volumes of the purchase of bonds of the ministry of finance by the national bank, the actual printing of money, and what is this system for the opportunities for imports that were created, it is not the basis of the reserves of the national bank decreased where exactly it concerns the budget deficit of the exchange rate is official, i would say the solution is, i hope that in principle this increase in the exchange rate was even with some reserve for the past week, the national bank bought into reserves almost as much as it sold from reserves, that is, from in separate weeks a billion dollars of expenses from reserves, in fact, it

went to zero if there is expert revenue from e-e supply through ports - it can even be approved there and done, i just wanted to ask about it, but you painted a picture for us of all the troubles and then the exchange rate jumped to 36.6 and now it seems that things are starting to get better and this means that the exchange rate may become 30. i apologize for 34 or 32 or 35, that is, when there was nothing, nothing could be sold now. to change correctly, i understand that exports actually took place if the ports are fully operational, if there are no such constant risk factors that we saw yesterday in the form of this missile launch, then this

can bring up to a billion dollars in additional export revenue per month, this is a significant amount, but on the other hand side's budget deficit, which in june reached six billion dollars. this does not cancel , that is, if we have a large budget deficit, even there it is not six, but we will have 4-5 billion a-a of those obligations that are from our international partners in terms of financing the deficit, we have approximately 3 billion dollars a month for the remainder of the step, that is, we still have a-a lot of these payments that have been increased, which will heat up the currency market, in particular, to the same law enforcement officers , military personnel, etc., and somewhere around a billion 2 billion dollars per month, and there will be somewhere, uh, roughly, the issue of the national bank, this will accordingly put pressure in the opposite

direction, that is, i would not expect that the hryvnia will collapse, as many fear, actually what we see this weekend in the exchange offices. i think that this is more like a market swing, speculation , but actually expect what will happen after hm changes the official course in one direction, then there will be a change in the other direction and there will be a conditional 32 it is more like if we have very fast and demonstrative victories at the front unexpected by the majority of market players, then this situation may be better than the basic one, there is very little time, i want to be closer to the people, the question is, everyone is worried about whether the prices of products will rise, or in general, life in ukraine will become more expensive even because of the fact that we have a war well, it is not easy at all, but it is purely because of this because there are other factors, the world crisis, which

started due to the pandemic and did not end due to the fact that we have a war , prices have already risen, it was and in march and april, this is primarily due to the irrigation of logistics due to the increase in fuel prices, we actually already see it in the prices, but now the actual exchange rate increase will deal such a second blow to the prices, in fact, the government not having the opportunity to fully finance all expenses without printing money by the national bank, then it's real an increase in the exchange rate will help him, in fact, we will simply not have a decrease in those payments that we cannot afford. and this will be a decrease in real terms due to inflation. unfortunately, in the coming months, prices will continue to rise . the national bank expects that in general for the year it will be up to 30%, around 30 % of inflation now for the first half of the year is 17 and a half, i.e. by another 10-15%, prices in general

may rise and this will decrease, first of all, real opportunities to buy goods and services, in particular for the poorest, those who depend on government payments pensions and payments to the budget sector, the last question is a short answer if possible, and the west finances the deficit, so you say that we need somewhere up to six five-six billion, we can afford the remaining three, for example, the west can give us loans in the form of grants into a loan. well, somehow, to close this hole, this is happening, or at least negotiations about it are going on. well, now we have actually received such and the first set of obligations, which closes three to four billion in the previous month, about three billion each by the end of the year, we need new sources of funding, this may be in particular the program of the international currency fund, but in general, there is such a

consensus that it is better to give ukraine more weapons right now in order for us to win the war faster and it will be cheaper for everyone than endless financing of 5 billion dollars of the ukrainian budget deficit during the protracted war, the beautiful optimistic words of hleb vyshlinsk, the head of the center for economic security, we love when god gives us weapons, with those hryvnias and dollars, it is better for high-mars, from the code of the speech of the pleb thank you. well, we have the following questions , please. 5 months of war, i wanted to talk to you about how your mood has changed, and er, your internal state is er, about how quickly

victory will come, have you already gotten used to the idea of ​​what is needed to prepare for a long war, well, definitely. in general , even from my youth, i got used to the fact that you need to keep pessimism inside yourself in order to be more happy in the case of optimistic information, that's why i always advise everyone not to outwardly. to understand that there are problems, there are difficulties, there are many things, and suddenly ukraine went on the offensive . positive perception of my country. i am one of those people who honestly

say that i did not believe in such resistance, i mentally prepared myself for the worst options, but what i see today fascinates me. god willing, it did not disappoint then, but now it fascinates me. i was absolutely not ready for of these optimistic positives moments about the ukrainian people, about the ukrainian army, about ukrainian men and ukrainian women who stand and hold and supposedly can even come before an offensive. we will talk more about this topic. we will have an interactive with mykola in september . ask your questions on the official facebook page under the comment you see now on the facebook screen espresso krapka tv comments write your questions and now with us yaroslav voytkom diplomat international expert, mr. yaroslav, greetings , good health to you, mr. yaroslav, well, look, this is so

important. it seems to me the most important question, and it is clear that in 5 months today we are celebrating this fact, that we have been fighting for five months and we already understand that e- e image, if it was russia, well, russia has actually lost this image, but the question arises whether russia will remain after the war, well , in some kind of state, how is it? in russians, the russians themselves say to a handshake state, will they come back again, will we return that businesses from yujil and these putin, the fersteiners will come there in different countries , everyone will say, well, what, they, how was it in the 90th year, in the 91st year, when no, russia has changed, there will be no longer a hunger war, let alone

a hot one, this is already such a democracy, we are tired we love them so much, we are friends with them, what should we expect from europe, from the civilized world in relation to russia ? expel all enemies which now occupy 20% of the territory of our country and destroy the source of evil that led to this situation. on february 24, we all changed, the whole world changed. i understand that everyone will now remember a moment , they may not know what happened six months ago or a year ago, but on 24 february will be remembered by every ukrainian both inside our state and the ukrainian who remained then outside its borders and we must understand

that business as usual is more with russia than the current russia is impossible this is when the third millennium of the 21st century is already the third decade of the 21st century and a horde is coming to us that actually carries ideology and destruction and in general everything that happened back in the 15th century during the time of ivan gros, er, this tsarist, he tried to conquer kazan, conquer novgorod, conquer that state and those territories that he wanted and er, they were not yet under his sole leadership, because when the soviet union was disintegrating in 1991, we really don't remember this speech.

of the union, mikhail gorbachev just put as we know and yes we think we don't know for sure this probably historians will already know if he really merged these words of george of the club to the elder in his speech, but now we have to realize that what is destroying us kinchyshyn in this form of the end uh, in what form does the russian federation currently exist, this causes great concern among the entire international society, and not only the western ones, but also among ukrainians and in russia itself. who understands what is happening. but i am sure that before whether it will happen later, the entire international community needs to think about how to do it so that it is the least painful for the entire world

community because it is a nuclear state, it is a state with chemical biological weapons and what was it then in 91 this year it was in several in the former republics of the free union, now it is concentrated in the russian federation. how is this threat, and besides, let's not only talk about weapons of mass destruction, about conventional weapons, about conventional weapons, with which russia is now attacking us as to reduce this threat, to destroy this military potential, how to make russia cease to exist as it is now, and it is possible to bring soldiers to ukraine from the far east or elsewhere, and not involve, say, muscovites, other st. petersburgers, etc. how are these states that will be formed, and

i am sure of this, it may not be such a fast process, it will be a 2-5 year process, but under the supervision of the world community, turn it into a peace-loving one, it is interesting that there are 21 national formations on the territory of the russian federation, and chechen the republic and the same buryatia and vakhkilya and so on and it is possible uh, now there are already such uh voices that are heard, what should we do? maybe we even recognize ichkeria uh and now ichkeria, how uh, do they have a desire to uh, uh, throw the kadyrov regime into themselves in this way, slowly begin to dismantle this russian federation. i am sure that this will be the case, and it will be done again, which was formed and which has already held four meetings, which became unconditionally . not everyone is there, of course, all coalitions

support it 100% ukraine, but it is important for us that the united states of nato countries are not all er but about this, the answers to everything have already been said, let's start with clarifying questions. look, we are interested in the reaction of the west to ukraine, how it has changed in 5 months, what we have achieved as a country, not in the sense of military victories of any kind, but in the sense of international politics and diplomacy how has the attitude towards ukraine changed towards ukrainians, the attitude towards ukrainians has definitely changed for the better. it seems to me that no one will say that ukraine is somewhere in russia or under russia. is it a zone of russian influence ? it was like that for centuries, now it won't happen anymore, everyone understood that ukrainians are a separate nation . it was absolutely obvious to us and to you, and to our

neighbors and to the same russians, that's why they are trying to destroy our identity, that's exactly what ukraine has endured not only those three days that were talked about and what is there to shout about when will the parade of putin's winners take place or will it last well, maybe 5-10 couple of weeks it will last and it is this determination of the ukrainian people, the ukrainian army, first of all well, and the ukrainian leadership we must to give credit of course, although there were such conversations about the fact that russia is on us, not on what we know. we have better intelligence than the americans and the british and our other partners, who turned out to be our best partners in this situation, who are aware of what is going on civilizational struggle and ukraine is precisely the outpost of this struggle and it is now protecting the entire western civilized world from authoritarian regimes such as russia, it is like

north korea, iran, and right now ukraine must win because otherwise it will win in the world authoritarianism and we are very grateful for the fact that such understanding in the role of ukraine has appeared in the world. of course, it is on our shoulders, so to speak, everything is happening, our boys and girls protect the entire civilized world, but there is no other way out, neither in western education nor in ukrainians, this is the attitude this understanding makes me very happy, for example, and it is clear that we have heard such statements from american and other western officials that we will help ukraine as much as it will be needed , mrs. lis tras, who is the minister of foreign affairs great britain says that it is leather and the russian strike, we will provide even more help, we

need to endure in this situation, but with such help, i am confident in our victory, and the only thing is that of course, it will not be in the coming weeks or months, but in the end, it ukraine will also improve, as it should be an even better country, as we all want to see it, this will be part of one more important question now. maybe not everyone is satisfied with the speed and quantity, but in principle, everyone is satisfied, but here is the question: recently , the adviser to the us president on national security, sullivan said that we will not give shells for 300 km so that ukraine does not get, for example, some crimean bridge there, and on the other hand, if we remember the origins all of this, that is, the end of february, the beginning of

march, so then, apart from the limited number of weapons , we were not talking about anything at all. and now we are talking about ideas about airplanes and so on and so on. continue to listen to all the doors and we will get missiles for 300 km and 3,000 km. well, i am exaggerating, i am definitely making wishful thinking, but this process of developing military-technical relations between the united states will not continue, in your opinion , and we will get maybe the thing about that we are not dreaming now, i am personally sure of this, because if the same american specialists said that we would not last three days in our service in germany, they told the miller that when he returned for help to the military, they said because

for three days, you will be completely different from reality, so there was such a situation with you and me, we ourselves may not have known what would happen. but yes, determination is this resistance of the ukrainian armed forces, and it showed that we use defensive weapons very effectively other anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles are going on now because we are in the defensive stage and have held, now it is necessary to liberate the ukrainian territories that were temporarily under the e-e russian occupation, and for this we need such weapons as the french cesar howitzer. there are not so many of them, but you can already see how they are changing the situation on the battlefield. the russian army is emerging. there is no longer such a qualified army that has harmed our borders

. this year, their artillery there is already 50, according to the estimates of some experts. %. and let's say that they have already hit our territory with cruise missiles with precise guidance, they are already running out, there is nowhere else to take them, because there is no mr. yaroslav, thank you, listen with the sound , unfortunately, we need to interrupt yaroslav voitko diplomats, an international expert was our guest when you talked about the 300 km missile that the united states does not want to give us yet, but if we get closer to the kherson region, we do not need to fly 300 km away. the fact is that many of the experts i i'm not taking anything from here, well, if i were to interpret, because i'm not an expert, they say that there is an option from