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. month of a full-scale invasion, it is increasingly clear that russia can advance only by gathering troops for a concentrated attack from other directions after the withdrawal of ukrainian forces from lysychansk , there have been no new large-scale attempts to advance so far . in the donbas reality program, we will also tell you what affects the possibility of the invasion force going forward and what future russia has planned for the already occupied ukrainian territories on the way to seversk. the military has been moving artillery in this area

for several weeks already, and for every city in the donetsk luhansk region there are no consequences, but there is no connection, no water, no gaza, no, no , nothing, no internet, no gas, no light. well, you yourself saw that everything is broken here. and that's why it's like that, while it's being said, let's fly somewhere, here, there, there , maybe from there, on the other side of the first night, tonight is generally a nightmare, and also for more than three weeks, mykola's children and grandchildren went, he himself would have liked to go, but he says he's holding on to his parents, they offered to say yes and so similar, well, the fact that how will you explain the comforting heart beats 27-30 beats per minute, the heat, mmm

, bring her to the dnipro, maybe she can be buried there with her father, as they say, schizophrenia, he can leave, he could n't see well, maybe he stepped somewhere, well in general, this is a slipper. you can only sit here, and your parents are in the house with you, yes, all three of them, as they say, the woman is fucking. this is the situation, and i was glad to leave, so you won’t leave . people are leaving the city little by little. it is becoming more and more empty and overgrown with ruins. now perhaps the most important the direction for the offensive attempts of the russian invasion forces, there is no water obstacle in front of them, the seversky donets river, and they are trying to break through

here, that is why the aviation is flying here and artillery is firing, nevertheless, the ukrainian military is holding back these offensive attempts, and now, as the military says, the battles are taking place somewhere 10 km from the weight of this city because there was an enemy in the hives of siverskyi, he somehow said well, he would be able to advance further on the slavyansk bakhmut highway in the same way and without causing damage as if it were crossed it would be very favorable conditions for him to advance further to slavyansk kramatorsk, this fighter, the commander of the cracking special unit, together with his subordinates, on july 12-13, conducted an operation in the already occupied village of belohorivka in the luhansk region, says that everything passed successfully, they wanted to overtake the enemy with which risked people in their units to other commanders in

their units, but we knew that on this day they were supposed to see the contrabass here after the capture of the city of silvers, they broke and spontaneous conditions and understood what was happening, the main forces were thought that we are counterattacking on six 10 13.07.22 of the year, the fully populated place says that later the russian military entered belogorivka again, but partially in krakow, than they reported the destruction of the personnel and equipment of the invasion forces. the diary of what he

is doing in ukraine from 24.02. the name is the senior lieutenant of the administration, the aggressor of the russian federation, the russians have created four groups, one acts from the raisin, the second is trying to control seversk, the third is trying to control bakhmut, the lack of resources, the loss of offensive potential forces the russians to perform such small tactical tasks by pouring the force of military districts into the city of bakhmut , formally speaking, yuzhny the military district in the russian federation, led by its command in the north, competes with the central

military accounting for active toys, the incoming military district yes, we formally see tactical actions in different directions from the point of view of operationally, i am not saying strategically, these are local local clashes which well, in principle, the level of football max eh, the main actions have not yet started with the main blow will still be delivered, i believe on kramatorsk slavs, according to the center for defense strategies , during a recent visit to the occupied part of ukraine, the minister of defense of russia set two main goals for the military to prevent ukrainian drones from carrying out tasks in the area the state border in the kharkiv region and also to go to the administrative borders of donetsk e-e to slavyansk in kramatorsk, the russians are forming 33-35 battalion technicians, that's about 10-12 conditional brigades

in order to first gather them in the right place to organize between them, interaction, communication, logistics, to establish, to organize management, it takes time , that is, 18 days, we see that it has already been spent, let's go somewhere , we are getting closer to the beginning of an active attraction, based on the experience of similar events, e.e., the first four months of the war. i think that this process will continue days 10-12 donetsk from this side you can even see it but no, you can even see the houses here when in the evening you can even see the house maybe for kilometers 5 here you see these two towers you see two towers and he already houses so and donetsk from this side terikon goes here they are shooting through terrycones to kill them, as

they say, for volodymyr, military affairs are a novelty. he, like many here, joined the army for mobilization. before that, he was a carpenter with a small business for over 30 years, but after four months in the war, he was already used to a new life. be calm. it happens and it happens calmly and the artillery works differently from day to day it is not the same how to say what will happen in a minute what will happen from day to day it is not the same taras you did not feel any decrease in shelling that is why the last few weeks have you not been constantly fighting well, recently it happened that things subsided a little, when it happened that ours are working well, when you can see that the enemy is on fire, then they calm down a little, they calm down a little bit. this is how the soldiers saw the fire at the oil depot in

donetsk at the beginning of july. russian troops are here until they attack, but received from the states weapons when med browning has to be used quite often, it is already equipped, so it should be the idea of ​​​​directing to start equipment. we have others equipped . and this is for the infantry. this is already the second mobilization of the first 14th and now he is at war again, such little daisies. now i'm serious, it's just when you go for the first time. you don't know where you're going . you're physical, moral, well, you have a little concept. a you know it when you are already here, then

you know where you are, what is going on, and the second time you go, you know what is waiting for you there. well, that's how it is. the most important thing is that the family is aware. and she supports it. they began to form it. i went here to the unit. i left everything. i came abroad. i came to my native land. they are protecting the land. the entire donetsk region has already been covered. this is one of the features of the fortifications on the front line, which could rarely be seen before the invasion. they bathe a person according to the principle of a well , first downwards and then to the side in order to protect them from fragments of artillery ammunition that fly into the position during shelling. this must be done very

quickly and it takes time to get used to it. you have to listen, you have to listen. you hear the exit and everything turns out as it should be. you don’t know where it will fly. the more you listen, the more you clean yourself normally . is there an operational pause? yes, it definitely is. is that we are currently observing activity in the bakhmut direction in the kiver direction, and the operational pause contains a huge danger of losing the initiative, respectively, if the enemy

stops. because of this unspecified person, the enemy is forced to take at least some actions, imitating his presence, demonstrating his activity, and now i don't know goethe himself ukraine should not sit idly by giving the initiative to russia, i believe that the ukrainian general staff also takes this into account, believes that the russian logistics system is on the verge of collapse, they need to do something for which they were not prepared in training and are also not technically ready ugh, it's all because of the effectiveness of ukrainian long-range artillery and missiles, the russians need to move the warehouses with ammunition further, more trucks are needed to deliver them to the barley front, in addition to western artillery and salvo fire systems, the ukrainian military successfully uses its contraband radars

that is why the russians suffer significant losses not only in tanks and personnel, but also in artillery , victor kyvniuk emphasizes, the armored forces of ukraine have the second in the world after the united states the counter-battery flight group, the interaction between the means of detecting firing guns and counter-battery systems of high accuracy and long range is quite significantly affects the fire activity of the russian artillery, first of all, we see every day the building of the general staff, quite significant numbers of losses of the russian artillery, defeats of two, three, four five or more guns every day means that all other communities at the enemy's firing position also suffered damage, that is, they came under fire raids, accordingly, the number of artillery personnel who were operating at the firing positions at this moment drops significantly, wounded,

frightened to the point of unconsciousness, the same psychogenic losses because the fire raid is healthy, the psyche cannot bear it when you are exposed to such measures from the enemy every day, according to troy, which we received from partners, has a rather serious such an influence that complicates the transition of the enemy to the active phase to offensive actions to the direct implementation and achievement of the goal of the operation to determine the territories currently occupied by the kremlin, russia is developing an annexation plan according to the information that the donbas rea confirmed immediately in several intelligence agencies of ukraine in the donetsk luhansk kherson and zaporizhzhia regions, preparations are underway for so -called referendums do not yet have a final date, but they are actively discussing september 11, on this very day in the russian federation, the elections of deputies and governors in several regions at once. it is even difficult to say here what russia

wants to get in the finals. we just need some movement so that the bicycle does not fall. this is the russian government. i think the horizon of planning in russia is very narrow. this is the main problem. it is september 11, putin's birthday is october 5. then in december, the 100th anniversary of the creation of the ussr, and then it is not at all clear what the plan will be to simply move to show that putin is winning and not for nothing. he started this war, seized some new territories from his sources, the donbas realities got the strategy for preparing and holding a referendum on the accession of the dpr to the russian federation, this document covers 25 pages, details of the campaign and voting throughout the donetsk region, the task of the dpr group to organize a turnout of at least 70% of the total number of voters, which is estimated at almost 3 million people , and the result is ready at least 70% of the votes are in favor of joining the dpr to russia, the problem mentioned in the

document is that on the territory captured by russia after february 24, about a third of the residents remain, it is interesting that according to this strategy to vote they plan to use the so-called voter's mark on the index finger to apply ink that does not rub off for several days and the finger can be made a symbol of some company. we will annex everything that we have captured, but it seems to me that there is more of an element of blackmail from the kremlin regarding ukraine in the sense that if you do not come to the negotiations with us, we will annex everything that we have captured to ourselves and, accordingly, we will perceive in the future any combat actions in these territories as battles already on the territory of russia, how uh, goddesses on the territory of

russia, another evidence that russia plans to gain a foothold in the occupied territories for a long time, the document that is in donbas, the reality is the concept of the master plan for the development of the city mariupol, which was developed by the ministry of defense of russia, according to these data, by the end of the year, they plan to provide local housing for the construction of one of the complexes. by the way, russian tv channels also show the restoration of infrastructure a and more i quote, special attention is paid to the area where the cemetery is located, for which it is recommended to use the territory of the airport until 2025 in mariupol, they plan to ensure a more or less normal life and increase the number of residents from 150,000 to 200 hryvnias , according to the ukrainian authorities, the city now has from 100 to 130,000 people if we talk about the construction of housing, only a thousand apartments are being built there, this is for 3,000 people at the most, what they are saying indicates that this is less than two percent of the people

who are left without housing in the city at all the restoration of infrastructure related to heating with winter preparations is not happening they are preparing a military transport base at the port base they are preparing housing and the actual construction of this quarter in order to provide first of all the need for this military logistics base based in the port and so far everything else at the level of loud statements about the million stage of recovery, no more than that, according to the concept developed by the ministry of defense of russia, by 2040, a literally complete restoration of life in mariupol plus construction is planned the northern bypass of the city, which is still in the general plan of 2017, and the formation of an international transport corridor, in essence, in the mariupol area to the crimea and odesa. as for azovstal, russia is considering four options for resuming production, creating a certain public and business site at this place, and two scenarios for the construction of a park with

jobs at the expense of agrarians on the outskirts of the city or at the expense of the tourism sector, the latter also essentially left nothing, everything was completely destroyed by air raids of 30 to 40 to 60 air raids per day, which suggests that in principle it is impossible to restore anything there today, that's why all these crazy ideas from the restoration of the plant and to some kind of amusement park are currently being demined in azovstal, the work there has not yet started, the end is not at least in the next year or two about the territory of azovstal, how can we even talk about a potential site you can't go there so quickly, the demining of the territory will not end regardless of whose control it is now under the control of the liver, he is now in the south of ukraine about the so-called referendum, the occupying power stated publicly several times, but according to the donbas reality, there is one

problem that is recognized by the russian curators, next quote, for an appeal to the president of russia , a body is necessary that creates the appearance of a broad expression of the will of the people, it still needs to be created , for example, in zaporizhzhia, there are even options for the names people's council people's assembly or people's assembly, i personally do not believe that they have i personally do not believe that they will be able to make a convincing declaration of some new occupied territories as independent or those that are part of russia, just the situation on the battlefield is such that the right bank of the dnieper i think will be retaken quite quickly, at least this referendum will have to be held against the background of the russians losing control over kherson, on the air the russians control over kherson about the fact that russia is preparing to join new territories of ukraine this this week , the white house announced, as the coordinator of the us national security council, john kirby, said: if russia does this

, our response will be swift and severe, adding that it is likely that ukraine will be able to temporarily regain occupied territories by military means. at the same time , the american institute for the study of war believes that after the annexation, putin will be able to threaten with nuclear weapons. the military doctrine of the russian federation allows its use to protect this territory. declare the temporarily occupied territories our own and then they will believe us that russia is ready to use nuclear weapons to stop the counteroffensive of ukrainian troops because it is like russian territory but again i still think it’s the same blend, it’s the same word -of-mouth work by russian agents of influence in the west in order to sell such an argument. because in fact even russia, if after such quasi-referendums,

declares these territories as its own, and even if it uses nuclear weapons in order to stop the counteroffensive of the ukrainians troops, the non-occupation of these territories will still lead to an external perception of the situation as such that russia used nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state to capture its territory, this will not change anything now in the occupied territories of russia actively forms voter lists and recruits commission members in accordance with the pr strategy we mentioned earlier, the campaign of the so-called referendums sounds like we will revive donbas together, among other things, there are prescribed slogans, for example, russia is here forever or donbas is the heart of russia, there are already preparations for what should happen immediately after the so-called mass vote hanging the flags of the russian federation, banners, now we are together and the organization of the telebridge of the dnr russia, but the absence of any official statements from russia

says that the final decision is in the kremlin so far it is not an accepted option that they fall into a completely realistic option that they will try to create some kind of quasi -statehood on the basis of all the captured lands that they will be able to keep. now there is a so-called parallel ukraine, but it is true that it is a non-nationalist , pro-russian ukraine. this plan was developed in the 14th. this is when the idea of ​​novorossia was still there. i think they are not abandoning it, it’s just not advertised very much now, and by and large, this plan is more profitable for them than direct accession to russia, because in this way, they get some kind of buffer zone between ukraine and themselves, such a quasi-ukrainian state, so that later on its behalf they can make claims on the rest of ukraine. in this way, constantly leaving this tension and constantly forcing ukraine to be ready for new attacks and attacks, the president of russia

has to show something for all the destruction the loss of thousands of russian soldiers the destruction of so much russian equipment and the damage to the russian economy as well as the international image i think he needs some kind of victory to justify what is happening. i can imagine that it could be an announcement of the annexation of the votes of the residents of luhansk and donetsk regions and the south of ukraine in some referendum for joining russia. they can try to do it. no one in the world will believe in such a referendum, but the kremlin is not trying to impress anyone. it would be for of the inner audience, you feel every meter of lowered ground, because it is she, as it were, they leave their traces, because then they push back and it will be very difficult, therefore, every step back is unpleasant in the soul, but it is better to take a step back so that later

to make five more than to put another composition , the situation happens immediately, so here it is getting tired now , those who were not finished at the first stage formed the backbone of the severodonetsk shock group, and accordingly, all this is supplemented already by those who, for various reasons, turned away, as they say, from participating in the operation and at the beginning mobilized, well, caught there in incomprehensible ways, allegedly by volunteers , that is, formally, the resource is present, but its quality is low, i do not think that the russian federation is currently capable of conducting something in ukraine once again similar to what we saw in the severodonetsk region without significant success on the front line russia continues to

raze ukrainian cities to the ground, gathering forces for new strikes, switches to the already occupied and penetrated part of ukraine and kep in the future for these territories and people was not prepared by the kremlin, it is definitely not recognized as civilized the world that eight years of occupation brought nothing but decline and destruction, these were the realities of donbas my name is roman pavlych see you on february 24 the date that changed us the date that changed the world and now what interests us most is our victory when we will defeat the enemy, how to predict the course of the war , the saturday political club program returns to the espresso airwaves to help understand the events and

predict the consequences. on saturdays, vitaliy portnikov and maria gurska will discuss the most relevant issues. to draw appropriate conclusions, if you want to know how what is happening today will affect our tomorrow, watch the saturday political club that saturdays are not a stressor, it is very important in this difficult time to be aware of what is happening, we tell the news and help to understand the events, but the war can make adjustments if the broadcast signal is lost, watch espresso on the satellite now espresso has become available on two satellites at once viewers who watch our channel on the astra satellite should readjust the tuner to the new parameters because the old parameters will soon stop broadcasting espresso ukrainian view thank you for watching