a new time and the more this time emerges, the more opportunities the occupier intervener has to leave traces, as they say, and arrange everything so that it will be profitable for them, well, the main thing - i think this is only a permit for the investigation and it is not only about exhumation, but the most important thing is that for the international red cross to receive, so to speak, access to the prisoners who are in russian captivity in this torture chamber and this is important information from our holy see, pope francis did not rule out the possibility of resigning for health reasons direct speech of the pope, i do not think that i will be able to continue traveling at my old pace at my age, and with this limitation, i will remind him that for a long time there has been a problem with the knee joint , because of which he moves in a wheelchair. the church should think about the opportunity to

step aside. well, let's hope that the decision will be made quickly, no . according to today's format, according to the words of the head of the chernihiv regional military administration, vyacheslav chaus, i will remind you that chernihiv region borders belarus. now there is a threat of a land offensive from the territory of belarus to chernihiv region. until then, preparations are already underway for the event of an invasion. the local authorities and the military have a plan for appropriate actions however, the ministry of defense of belarus continues its military exercises again and again, and now , according to the latest information, they will continue until at least the sixth of august, and the total number the duration of the extended exercises is already 14 weeks, and so far, military analysts report that they do not see any particular groups on the territory of

belarus that could cross the ukrainian state border. actions on the part of the russian federation, military e-e bases are being built, headquarters, i don't know, the maximum amount of equipment is being pulled up, why are they doing it? well, for now, the question remains rhetorical, contact us now ihor tyshkevich is an expert in the international program, the internal policy of the ukrainian institute of the future igor, we congratulate you glory to ukraine glory to the heroes good morning long live belarus well, accordingly, khrystyna voiced an extremely important point, so we continued the training in general, the training has already been going on for 14 weeks and we understand that the enemy is preparing with the to talk about their deployment, digging in, the creation of appropriate bases when they would roughly be ready, i don’t want to play in this kind of belarusian

futurology well, but we understand that the order in case something will be given directly from the kremlin, yes , and here the question is characteristic of the real, completely real belarusian bridgehead. well, let's start with the exercises first. and when we talk about training and before the actors of russia's invasion of ukraine. shows that it is necessary to pay attention, first of all, not only to the samfa training, but also to the number of those involved in the composition as of today, yes, there is a continuation of the training, there is, well, the nature is quite dangerous, because this is a training for fording rivers, this is a training distancing, but if you look at the number of forces involved in these exercises, well, compared to the previous maneuvers, so far we are grains - this is a sign, if we talk quantitatively, this is an exercise

in which i participate in one battalion. that's what it's called, they continue here as well there is a certain logic, if only because training is a very expensive matter if you continue starting from the beginning of the year, and soldiers and officers must be paid something. but this increase in salary, ammunition also costs something, etc. so talk about the creation of a strike group. today, i would n't do it because the concentration of forces and means is so far there is no talk that the order for the next war will be given from the kremlin . for the time being and this creates certain possibilities, and the decision to enter the war itself

has not yet been finally made. the kremlin's problem here and there is precisely that, including in the internal belarusian political situation and in the mood of the population, because the idea of ​​war against in ukraine, she is extremely unpopular among all population groups. well, i mean all groups according to political preferences, including, uh, among the electoral hatred of porridge. yes, yes, igor, but there is an opinion that lukashenka then pushed lukashenko, in the end only lukashenko can not push neither his people nor his army to make it a war against ukraine, in fact, and here it is important to talk about the quality of those groups that could theoretically be involved in the transition of the border across the border on the territory of ukraine according to the data of the grove for example, the belarusian army has become more prepared specifically for defensive operations, but it is still not ready for large-scale offensive operations due to the lack of real combat

experience, this is supposedly the most important factor, and i still wanted to draw attention to it, you notice that even among lukashenka's electoral core there is no support for those actions which is being implemented by the russian federation on the territory of our country, but let's just say that these data are as non-optical as they are, taking into account the fact that, well, sociology in belarus, we are aware that we need to conduct some adequate research there it is very difficult, if not impossible to say, well, as of today, there are several if we start from the end and several data sets are regular surveys of internet users. well, also with the help of the internet, which is also conducted there by house british a-a plus e-e of these studies that it is possible to follow the dynamics or does it happen regularly. once every three weeks or so, and the minus is that, unfortunately, these studies do not cover the rural population, that is one and a half

percent of the population of belarus, so here we can talk about trends, but we cannot talk about the general mood, there is a telephone survey , a survey conducted by a belarusian analytical workshop, the head of which is vardamatsky, who is from the territory of poland, this survey is taking place, if i am wrong, now there will be three 30 waves, and they are conducting it in telephone mode throughout voters well, more or less, we can talk about the possibilities of obtaining close to real ones, yes, there are attempts at surveys conducted by commercial companies. of course, they asked quite sharp questions. well, but they are investigating. let's say so the periphery of the topic of war, it is an economic expectation of a political fear, etc. a-a there, wild flowers are already working inside the country, and there are, of course , state studies, some of which are made public, this is the academy of sciences, e-e, from belarus

, sociology - these are different wires shevchenkovski, apparently sociological companies, the question is not to believe a specific array of data, the question is that more of those arrays why are they independent of each other, it is somewhere approximately the same picture, in this case, the conclusion or all sociologists in including those close to completely different political groups, internal societies and the political group of literature, sat down at the same table and agreed on how we will give false data or a certain certain reaction, a certain logic a-a in that these data coincide, it is and it relies on if we conducted some correct research in the same belgorod region of the russian federation. i think people there would also be far from delighted with the kremlin's russian aggression against ukraine, but

no one would ask them. well, accordingly, we we understand that the existing military infrastructure of the russian federation in belarus envisages launching and in the future missile strikes on the territory of ukraine, and i don’t know, maybe this is part of the plan in order not only to insure the same kyiv or, i don’t know, the poliske strip, but also for that so that ukraine starts to cover the fire and missile positions of the russians in belarus and further on they can probably launch some gomel or baranovytsky or grodno sugar, remember the ryazan sugar let's do this from the point of view of infrastructure the question of your colleagues, what was before the second part, and the forces and means, yes, the russian federation holds it first of all in the homeriv region,

close to the ukrainian border, this is the former airport, the zyabrovka airfield, and also several sites where there is a concentration of air defense forces and the idea of ​​a concentration of missile of the complexes of the second stage of the site, there is the bresteysky training ground , we are talking about the brestsky training ground in russian. space, and russian planes use it statically to strike at belarus , and at some of the airfields periodically, let's say, russian fighter jets fly in, well, first of all , su- 30-135 , etc. in the fact that in order to evaluate how should it be evaluated to evaluate the possibilities or

at least counter groups as of today near the ukrainian border there are up to five battalions of tactical groups that are evenly stand near the border from the bomb shelter to gomel, and hmm, it’s either motorized rifles or special operations forces, they are stationed there on a rotational basis, this means that one pan is standing for one and a half, it is taken away and, accordingly, another one comes in its place. and that’s about 60-70%, er photo capture let's assume echelons with equipment a-a what uh-uh are the belarusian monitoring groups here, what kind of youth and others are they, this is just such a movement of forces and means and so far this is the case if we talk about military uh-uh preparations, as of today these btg yet and if we talk

about the possibilities of an offensive, it is theoretical from the point of view of a small operation with e-e, destabilizing, and rapid mobilization is possible only with special operations forces and those transferred to them, let's assume a unit of e-e special forces of the internal troops, the total number of mobilization, let's say the possibility of this group is up to 12,000 people together with once again it is all together, but taking into account the political crisis of b3 in belarus, this means that the potential for war and the belarusian side can send more than half, or is it six, the rest of the military units of the belarusians. it is in the so-called staffed state, which means that a-a military unit they work in a-a peacetime regime and there are some officers in the staff, and about 60- 70% of the e-e deployed staff,

a certain number of contract workers up to half of the e-e deployed staff and a very small number of conscript soldiers and, accordingly, such parts, it can become with e-e ready for the day or train capable only in the case of a prize of reservists prize of reservists until what is there, please, mr. igor? in the last few months, all the achievements in belarusian-ukrainian relations in the last 30 years have actually been canceled . to understand that there is some kind of strategy in relation to at least the neighborhood with the country of belarus, and the belarusians should have it with us, and we must already think about how to build it all, in your opinion, is it my

responsibility to do it and is it time to do it now to do and if it is possible that someone is already doing this, please ask us first from the point of view of politics in the direction of any neighboring state it should be and unfortunately what we have today including a certain negativity and a lack of knowledge or a lack of information that what is happening in belarus is the consequences of the fact that there was no such policy, and it was not for ten years, because traditionally, cooperation tried to rebuild it, and through the official only through the top of the pyramid without long-term goals, without planning and involvement under these resources and many questions and topics, it was postponed until later, a very simple example, the main fuse, or including the

participation of belarus in the war, is the mood of the population of belarus today, it is divided into several, but from the communication strategy of studying at least these same ones groups in ukraine well, there are already, until recently, there were none. well, who is involved. let's say these people who are engaged in defense, because these departments, they, they are already ordering this analytics, they are studying understanding , and there is a second part of this - it is work on support for this knowledge, but here there is no support for these attitudes. this is in the short term, because for now and where there is a war, any political steps are most likely impossible. the question of what to do next is because of the aliens with whom to live together or partner. the first place - this is safety second place - it is foreseen, it means that you have a neighbor and a driver you have to predict today belarus is not it is safe, it is not foreseen and only the third question, the third part - this is a partner, this

means that during the war, the key questions are security is the only thing that should pay attention to the current state of the ukrainian state as a priority - it is the support of exactly those factors the end of 9 belarusians eh to join from and for the possibility of reducing the influence of russia eh on this country the next stage is already eh ot the war is over, it is necessary to rebuild right away, the question is more complicated because on the one hand there is winter economic dependence, on the other hand it refers to the economy of peacetime, on the other hand, it's just like that, you can't give up and you can't restore it, so here the question is already the formulation of the conditions or base- careful step by step attempts to find opportunities eighth to work or influence or secondly this is key because from the point of view of forming this platform of predictability ukraine has not

just to expect but to influence not only the mood of the population but also the mood of the elites and the economic and political process completely different and only in the third place is the place of partnership. thank you for this analysis , and hartyshkevich, an expert in the program of the international domestic policy of the ukrainian institute of the future, talked with us about belarus about how to continue living in the neighborhood, at least in some way, and we take a step further and analyze the military situation in our country with serhiy zgurts, military experts, an analyst of defense express p. serhiy , we congratulate you. thank you for working on the air. despite the fact that today is a sunday off . what to talk about good morning i congratulate you, mr. serhiy, i have such an impression that you really never sleep mercedes analysis robot ethers well , the time is so extremely not easy, but just a couple of minutes ago, khrystyna and i were happy that

a big traffic jam in sivastopol, we were moving, we were running around. oh, how can you say we had fun, in any case, you have to treat it with attention. it seems to me that the russians claim that it is a ukrainian drone, we cancel all festive events on the day of the navy, but nevertheless we understand that, well, no almost they would be so stupid as not to protect the crimean sky so much that our unmanned aerial vehicle could get there. in general, what can be the purpose of this action and as of now, mr. serhiy, how do you see this situation, and in fact we will talk about russian air defense, there are many examples that probably the capabilities of this defense, let’s say so, are somewhat exaggeration, starting from the naval application. when we consider the cruiser moscow and the statements that they can fight the heimers system and the s4 plug-in, nothing works , and now we let's go down to the actual

operational and tactical level. when we talk about the fact that the air defense system of the russians is generally capable of combating unmanned systems, and the situation around sevastopol shows that it certainly is there are significant holes in such air defense and we are quite satisfied with this, actually, crimea and sevastopol are our territory, and i think that over time we will increase our ability to carry out pinpoint strikes on objects that directly affect our national interests on our security as for the specific release in the case of sevastopol, we will see, i think that in the course of days we will receive some additional information that will allow us to draw more in-depth conclusions from the current situation, well, there is information that the enemy is on the way about donetsk region that the enemy is concentrating its efforts in the direction of bakhmut and around donetsk, and at the same time we see the transfer of manpower and equipment to the south

in the direction of kherson, the same is true of the left bank of kherson oblast, which really provide and uh, first of all, the right bank of kherson oblast, with logistical support, did not draw conclusions and now really pulls up personnel and equipment to the kherson region, perhaps preparing for counterattacks from and attacks from our side, these measures have already been taking place during the last week, sufficiently actively the use of restored crossings and pontoons and the transfer of equipment from the crimean peninsula are quite active. and all the actions that are

taking place today in the south, in particular, in view of the morning meeting of the command of the south, where they talked about what is happening in action with the use of aviation where our e- e attack aircraft for strikes on boryslav where, in particular, they found a cluster of enemy vehicles in boryslav, it is not far from novaya kakhovka, and the fact that the enemy, in turn, tried to use helicopters there in order to to attack already on our units, that is, the dynamics of actions in the south, of course, are happening and everything will depend on the approaches of the leadership of the armed forces to how to develop the offensive if it occurs and minimize the accumulation of russian groups in areas that are important for e situation in the south in general, mr. serhiy, to what extent are they generally increasing their presence

in the south of our country, it is possible according to the available data because they are really pulling, as we understand, a lot of manpower and equipment, nevertheless, you just need to understand this for defense. is it for the further offensive? they may need it. well, how do they think the problem is, we are talking about the transfer to the south, then the main thing, for now, see about the military equipment and the iron increase of the grouping of personnel composition of e-e is also happening, but with minor parameters, but what worries me is that they are directly on the e-e south, they have transferred e-hmm, there are e-e several patriotic groups with the direction of airborne-assault landing, i.e. those that are able to carry out such e-e in the kherson region initial offensive actions in view of our

own training, how much has the number of personnel increased in the south in the russian army? i cannot say for sure yet, we are talking about the fact that on the right bank of the dnieper they will hold the purchase of about 10-15 thousand personnel, an increase maybe there by three to four to five thousand personnel of our- possible enemy, but we understand that this increase can be quickly minimized by shifting our reserves and using long-range means impression is all it will depend on what strategy the general staff will now choose to minimize these attempts by the russian federation to carry out a possible anti-counteroffensive, which foreign analysts are starting to talk about there and from time to time, and our ukrainian officials are starting to talk about the fact that russia may be preparing counter-offensives in the south of the country, we are talking about the zaporozhye direction. as far as i understand from the other side, somewhere an hour ago we included the

secretary of the kherson city council in the information and analytical marathon of the espresso tv channel. and she says that not just beggars but beggars and marauders are already starting to go around, it is about food, food for the enemy is gradually being completed, so to speak, not only supply but also consumption. so we are talking about the situation that concerns the kherson region and it is really acting on the right side in the dnipro are complicated precisely because of the restrictions on the supply of e-e fuel and food shortages in the russian grouping . grouping in this zone, mr. serhiy, what is happening

in the izyum direction, i have information that uh, we can hope there in the near future even for uh, such significant successes in the armed forces of ukraine, something is not working out there with our enemies, and it is clear that this correlates the situation with the offensive on sloviansk, if we see the rear of the general staff in the morning, there is information that the enemy is trying to launch artillery strikes in that area, this is the krasnopill valley, adamivka, these are the usual directions where the enemy is trying break through to the side from the slavic but without successfully maintaining an effective defense system, there was today's information that in dimitrovka , assault operations have been going on there since the morning, and where we are a bit more to the left and there is an attempt by the russians to advance in periwinkle side but i also think that it is unlikely from the point of view of the implementation of the

plan, so that this entire upper block of russian packing groups that are saturated with troops near the raisin with the slavic movement is really happening extremely slowly, in general there are no high-quality changes, if we are talking about the desire of the russians to push forward. at the same time, there is information about the accumulation of a significant amount of russian military equipment close to the state border of ukraine, this is what is located on the territory of the russian federation. 2,000 different types of weapons that can theoretically be used to strengthen the russian group. and let them in the kharkiv direction and partially in the izyum direction at the expense of this logistical route we are studying the english language of kopyansk, the deployment of russian troops in these zones, and here again, the correct use of long-range weapons is of great importance in order to defeat all these

logistical efforts of the russians in time and not give the opportunity to strengthen those cities that are trying to limit offensive actions on our territories . we see that the enemy will simply go crazy, sataniya is talking about rocket attacks , artillery shells from the other side of mykolaiv, fortunately, there are some relatively calm cities in ukraine, why such selectivity, what is their goal they are chasing by shelling, well, this night was simply hellish for the people of mykolaiv, why are they so actively destroying this city, and what can the rest of the cities expect? well, there are indeed areas where the enemy is trying to intensify hostilities with the use of any missile weapons. there he is and indiscriminate action precisely mykolaiv is systematically beginning to fall into such a special zone of the impression of the russian

federation and here it is such an impression that on the one hand it is traditional intimidation on the other hand because it is an attempt to somehow ensure a new certain pop er, a prerequisite for some offensive actions in this direction, although we understand that the movement in the direction of mykolaiv, odessa, in fact, they are possible for those who think that here for sure the use of those means that can really reach the cities where a lot of the civilian population lives and where such losses will be just as resonant as we talked about just recently about the oleniv concentration camp. in the same way, in the destruction of our prisoners, they caused absolute anger and tension in ukrainian society. and a panacea, by the way speaking of the fawn. yes, we understand that the enemy officially launched the version. well, of course, he launched a false version, but he

officially launched the version that the explosion allegedly occurred as a result of heimers, uh, lusheimers shot. now, we understand that there may be a visit by representatives of the un and the international red cross. how much time is needed in order to conduct a normal inspection and make sure what actually happened there and will the russians not be able to falsify if they can then to what extent yes we simply do not know to what extent one shot is different from the other, uh, the investigation of such cases is really quite difficult because you have to collect all the evidence, all the facts, and i understand that the russian federation will actually create obstacles to the actual admission of international inspectors of investigators to this area, making it impossible to effectively do any work on the eve of uh on the

day of the attacks on the deer park, the russian mass media published what appeared to be the remains of the wreckage of farmers. it is not known where they found them, and we understand that the distance from the deer park to the line the collision is about 10 there 13 km e what is the point of using himersy at such a distance is absolutely not on the head, that is, we understand that this primary propaganda factor of the russian federation is completely destroyed, but now the main thing is to achieve an international structure . how difficult was it to collect this evidence, the proven position of the russian federation will also be the most expensive here thank you mr. serhiy serhiy zgurets military expert analyst defense express was on the air of the tv channel espresso is now a traditional daily minute of silence about nifig