tv [untitled] August 17, 2022 8:00am-8:31am EEST
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more than 150 days without a day off on the front line more than 30 units of captured enemy equipment tankist yevhen is getting closer to victory every day and every day he says i am not tired i am not tired of defending ukraine i congratulate andriy yanitsky espresso tv channel you are watching the news of the economy during the war if you watch us on the internet be please like and leave a link to this video to your friends and family, so more people will see us, something strange
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is happening with the budget, the ministry of finance attracted only 71.5 million hryvnias from the placement of domestic debt of papers at yesterday's auction for comparison. at past auctions, the sums were many billions . obviously, the government has problems filling the budget through domestic borrowing, but is in no hurry to raise interest rates on debt securities . currently, the ministry of finance is ready to pay only 14% annual bonds, while the expected inflation at the end of the year is 30%, that is, a potential investor loses funds instead of earning when he buys ours do not help to fill the budget in fact and the deputies yesterday they failed the government draft law on the return of excise taxes on fuel eight economists from different countries of the world, including ukrainians yuriy gorodnychenko from the american university of berkeley and timofii malovanov from the kyiv school of economics appealed to the
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ukrainian government to change its economic policy, in particular, they call on the national bank to abandon the fixed exchange rate of the hryvnia of deputies taxes and excise duties, and the government should raise interest rates on government debt securities, which i actually talked about before, and also limit money will escape from the country, the queen of vitamins, blueberry, it is grown in zakarpattia, the season is just in full swing, the berry that ripens in the middle of the summer on store shelves is not cheap, because it also needs a lot of care, our correspondents visited the company where blueberries are grown, they do not fall for the winter , we do not collect them, we throw a hammer separately, this is also the case i count everything as a deficiency. well, look now, it was no longer pink. it was such a nice berry. ilona carefully chooses each berry. the woman has been collecting blueberries for more than a year
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and knows all its quirks in order to preserve them as much as possible. useful properties and to extend the shelf life, you need to collect blueberries in gloves and immediately sort them into trays of half a kilogram. plaque is useful capricious berry and in care likes acidic soil needs moisture and vitamins in the field of mr. vasyl they grow three hectares of organic blueberries the man says the berry is expensive on the market it is difficult to grow it not cheap they planted the field in 2017, and already in two years, the first harvest was harvested , 10,000 bushes were planted, and an average of 5 kg of berries are collected from each one, but this is only under the condition of proper care.
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vitamins for the winter from transcarpathia for the tv channel espresso and traditional in the middle we have two guests at once: the associate expert of the analytical center of the case of ukraine yevhen dubogres and the financial analyst of the icu investment group mykhailo demkiv congratulations
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greetings good morning today we have three topics, we will talk about them in turn first about banks, then about money's friend, and finally about gas blackmail in russia, let's start with the banks. so, in the second quarter, the amount of hryvnias of hryvnia funds of ukrainians in banks increased by 6.4%, at the expense of funds on demand, and in foreign evolution it decreased. at 3.5% of the dollar equivalent, what does this say, mr. yevgeny, let's let's start by saying that ukrainians, at first glance, carry more money to banks and but if we unfold this picture in more detail and look at currencies by terms, we will see that the picture is a little different, yes. okay, all funds of individuals at the beginning of the year increased by 60 billion banks this is 8%, this is a huge increase, but mainly it is not deposits, i.e. short-term investments of ukrainians, but current accounts, it is salaries
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of military personnel, mainly increased, aid to state employees, aid to temporarily displaced persons. that is, we see that the volume of deposits, especially dollar deposits, in banks fell in six months, this is normal well, the process is clear, because we have a war , people try to keep more money and keep it at hand, but on the other hand, it creates risks for our banking system, risks of outflow of funds. are that now 60% of all the banks' liabilities are funds for claims, that is, they can leave the banks at any time, this does not mean that they will leave, but they can leave. therefore, banks should already raise the interest rate at this stage for deposits in order to have a more stable funding base so that money does not leave the banks at one point, it seems to me that the banks will do this right away, raise rates in the near future, that is, as others joke, there are three
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situations when there is no money, there is no money it is not at all, and it is already time to exchange dollars, it has already come to the point that they exchange dollars a little, mr. mykhailo, it is possible. what can i add regarding what yevgen told about deposits in banks, sometimes not only do they change, sell dollars, but also buy them? watched the dynamics of foreign currency deposits. i want to remind you that ukrainians in principle refused foreign currency deposits long before the 22nd year, such a trend continued for several years due to low rates. more and more banks are allowing ukrainians to buy, let's say, somewhere close to the official dollar with er placing it on
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deposit for three months. i've already seen several news from large banks this week, before they were quite small and with i think that this can change the situation a little, but in general, this is the growth of deposits. if we look at inflation, the budget is fixed, which were expected in the future, then we can even say that the growth of deposits is a little lower than it could be. well, some of the banks that are starting to allow ukrainians to buy dollars for deposits, they at the same time change the exchange rate a little bit, twist it, so there is a trick. the exchange rate was the same and then after that they changed it a little there is another bank news the share of non-performing loans in the banking sector increased during the second quarter to 29-7%, this is stated
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in the review of the banking sector of the national bank of ukraine and a quote from the bank they started recognizing non-performing loans of the corporate segment, at the same time in the retail segment , the level of coverage of the working portfolio with reserves is increasing, by mykhailo, can you decipher what it is about, well, in simple words for those who did not study economics at the university, what happened, the war brought a lot of grief and brought a lot of negative things to the economy, e borrowers e- if they experience difficulties in repaying and servicing their loans, banks should reflect this in their financial statements through recognition of losses, that is, they do not expect full repayment of this loan in the future. and this is problematic for banks, because it reduces their capital and there is a risk that the capital will fall to a level
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below which it is not possible to work for the bank, in principle, such an agreement is unprofitable this is what the nbu took upon itself, that is, during the period of martial law, it will not withdraw banks in which this level of capital, due to losses, has fallen below the required age, but it simply will not do it, but this does not mean that in a safe zone due to the fact that if one of them has very strong problems or will not return loans or return interest, it will be difficult for that bank to return interest on deposits and there may already be problems, mr. yevgeny, almost 30% of non-performing loans is this still a safe level when will the level be dangerous when we don't need to panic at all. and we need banks to recognize the reality, that is, the signifiers who can't pay should get along with it. and go to the banks and agree on spatialization of
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loans, this is what i mean and businesses and people like us, the population, and banks are a little more active than now than now, they are making them recognize these credit losses because the losses such banks suffered on 24.02 after russia invaded us is somewhere around 200 to 250 billion hryvnias, according to my estimates, this is huge the losses are such that they must be recognized, banks have recognized about 1/5 of them today, that is, the bank must do it faster and more actively in order to see the real picture and see how to deal with it, what actions of the national bank to apply and exactly that is why the national bank went for this relaxation of the relaxation of the requirements for the relaxation of standards that if the bank does not comply with the standards, it can temporarily remain on the market, therefore there must be some kind of consensus between
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the bank and the national bank, that is why i am very glad that the banks finally after 4, 5 months after the beginning of this aggression, yes, they really began to recognize the reality , let them continue to recognize it. well, as they say, the banks are now at the stage of denial, and then they were when there will absolutely be a stage of recognition, and let's talk about another topic about printing money, this is very interesting an interview on forbes with rostislav shurma, who is the deputy head of the president's office, among many different things he said there, for example, he said that the emission of the hryvnia, that is, a friend of the hryvnia, under certain conditions, can easily amount to 30 to 60 billion hryvnias per month in e-e. the day before, the left bank publication published a column by the head of the national bank of ukraine, kyryll
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shevchenko, where he says something completely different. he says that not financing emissions to central banks imposes a hidden inflationary tax on society and can lead to catastrophic and long-term consequences, why do officials say so many different things , even though they are responsible for our economic policy. well, in one way or another, yevgeny , can you explain this schizophrenia in our government, after all, the government and the national bank are responsible for our economic policy of ukraine, this is one of his key functions, his third function after humanitarian stability and financial stability, so i personally look here at what the people who are entrusted with this responsibility say, we do not write off the president, because we know that the influence the president's office is absolutely great, and that 's why we wanted economic policy to be taken care of by those who are responsible for it and the messages that the national bank has already been giving for the past 2.5
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months so that other authorities do not mind contradicting them, the national bank clearly said that if the emission is no more than 30 billion per month, then we will have inflation at the level of 31.5% by the end of the year, that is, if other people tell us that there can be much more emission, then what can be the inflation and can the national bank at least somehow contain it under a big question, in fact, that is why the national bank is responsible for this. the national bank receives distribution if something goes wrong with inflation, and that is why, in my opinion, it should determine what the emission should be, how to curb inflation, this deputy head of the president's office, mr. he went beyond the limits of his direct responsibility, well, the president's office does not print the hryvnia, and he comments on
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the work of another state body, well, it is not accepted in communications, that is, the ministry of finance says that for example, the national bank has to do what it has to do in the zone of responsibility of another player, usually officials don't go here, somehow it didn't work out well well, in principle, there is a rather long discussion here, that is, how to finance the budget and how it should be in order to speed up, on the one hand , to speed up our victory, on the other hand, in order not to destroy financial stability in ukraine, of course. well, if they printed uh, immeasurable hryvnia , sooner or later the consequences will not come, remember 2012, the 14th year, uh, everything still hidden such a hryvnia, and in principle it caught up with a sharp devaluation in 14-15 years, now we are talking not
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only about this year, for which the emission of 30 billion hryvnias per month is planned, and next year, and here i see it from the outside partners so far, all the money that has been announced has been announced until the end of this year, any promises regarding 2023, we are already thinking about this year's budget, how we will pass it, there are no such promises. from the point of view of the national bank, it is an important thing because the uncertainty of 23- th year very, very strongly, and therefore, in principle, i also understand their point of view, and the last topic is rather international for us, but since it is related to russia, it accordingly affects ukraine and the situation on the front of guiding international partners to
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ukraine, coding co-trading of gas futures on the stock exchange exceeded the mark of 2.5 thousand dollars, to put it simply, gas is more expensive on the stock exchanges, and for 1000 m³, it is two and a half thousand dollars, and this happened after gazprom predicted, i would say in quotation marks, gas prices of more than $4,000 in winter that is, on the information wave, in fact, at the same time , germany announced that it plans to postpone the closure of the last three nuclear power plants in its country because the country is preparing for a possible energy shortage this winter in the conditions of russian gas blackmail. what is going on, mr. mykhailo , why are the stock exchanges reacting so to the statements of gazprom? trusts, and it is unlikely that anyone trusts them, rather, they are afraid of them in general, gas over the past year, not
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only at first full-scale aggression , has almost turned into a new bitcoin, uh, the price says increased so that literally a year ago it was at the level of 200 e dollars, now in almost 10 years it is higher , that's actually why it is because of such a temporary shortage of gas that russia, as an unreliable supplier, caused here is very interesting actually and the second part of it the news you mentioned is the preservation of three nuclear power plants in germany, somewhere this decade passed under the sign of closure due to fears of the consequences of the accident in fokusimi, and in principle, now it shows this policy, it looks like i am not very far-sighted because, on the one hand, nuclear energy is not clean, unlike the decline of coal, it does not emit co2 into the atmosphere, there is only a question
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of protection, safety, but in such a trial, regarding the perception of nuclear energy, the russians have achieved a more positive effect i don't want that, yevgeny, and we literally have a minute left, but i would also like to hear your opinion on this, and whether europe will be able to resist russia's gas blackmail, will russia be able to fend for itself here and is shooting itself in the foot once again , and this is germany's statement. they show that what the europeans used to be afraid of. most of all, these are the nuclear plants after chernobyl and the tricks. we are now, even now, russia. they are more afraid, and that is why they are ready to sacrifice their security in terms of nuclear, in nuclear terms, or sacrifice the security formations of russia there, and for this blackmail, what over time they will stop going and will start
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to replace this energy with something else and then russia will remain isolated in general, which is what we hope for. well , we have known for a long time that russia is scarier than chernobyl and it is still the same catastrophe it's a pity, not some kind of technogenic born person. thank you, dear experts, yevhen dubagres, associate expert of the analytical center case ukraine, and mykhailo demkiv, financial analyst of the isu investment group. did you watch economic news during the war? we broadcast live on weekdays in the morning at 8:00 a.m. repeat at 11 p.m. and at any time convenient for you watch us on the internet i'm andriy yadnytskyi espresso tv channel together we will win see this week in
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in real time about the most relevant events through the prism of war every day author projects on espresso february 24 the date that changed us the date that changed the world and now what interests us the most is our victory when we defeat the enemy predict the course of the war the saturday political club program returns to the espresso airwaves to help understand the events and predict the consequences of that saturday vitaly portnikov and maria gurska will discuss the most relevant issues in order to draw appropriate conclusions. do you want to know how what is happening today will affect our tomorrow?
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uncomfortable situation dolaren gel pain relief in dolaren gel strength against pain some creatures hunt washing machines and we are from ukraine and we insure our machines online at hotline-finance hotline finance insurance of course online well, we are back as you wrote some viewer plague presenters why am i andriy saichuk chuma, but i’m going to tell lesya and you two when, since andrii savchuk doesn’t call, we’ll be with you for the next hour, and then another hour, and then another hour, and hour after hour, we’ll say what’s what it's called calling a spade a spade, russians are muscovites, muscovites are enemies, and so on and so
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on. well, friends, let's continue our e-e ether, our espresso marathon, and we'll immediately move on to the e-e conversation with vadym denisenko, adviser to the minister of internal affairs of ukraine, mr. vadym dobrogo good morning. greetings, mr. vadim, the institute of war studies said that putin’s goals in this war have not changed. and they continue to seek to capture most of ukraine, to displace the legally elected government of the president, and to control, in particular, kyiv. to disappoint ukraine, and does it look plausible, or do we see evidence of this, what does this mean for ukraine, that is, in this case, i have never doubted that the main task of putin
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at the moment is the destruction of ukraine as a state therefore, in this case, yes, they are slipping where they are. nothing is happening at the front now, where they can influence only relatively small areas of the front, there are about 15 km, and we can see this in donbas now, but at the same time, there are none. let's say so. mediated movements to the point that they are ready to go to some negotiations, that they are ready to offer some option for escalation, that they are ready to do an act of good will, unfortunately , we do not see this here, it is voluntary only where they are in this case, we can't talk about what stage of freezing or the stage of stopping the war, or even more so, the stage of the real negotiation process. unfortunately, we cannot go to
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lviv. president erdogan is going to turkey he will have a one-day visit as well antonio otelish e-e the representative of the un and and perzogan as far as we know wants to hold a conversation about achieving peace through negotiations what do you know about this visit well see in principle e-e we through negotiations e-e it is certainly wonderful idea this is a big dream to become a world-class player a player who managed to solve one of the biggest conflicts of the 21st century and no more in europe for the last probably 70 years but for now i say once again i don't see any options in order for putin to say that all the objectives of the operation have been achieved by the time i'm tired,
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i'm leaving. well, let's all remember that on february 24, he said that our goal is to liberate the dnr of the lpr from the ukrainian fascists and so on and so on. that is this is a minimum goal. i’m not talking about disinfection and so on, that is, in this case, they still go from lysychansk for months. to add to that, talk about the fact that putin will hear cardigans tomorrow. that ’s all. i’m tired and i have enough there. well, in short, they mention the territories that i received. and i continue and i am there to withdraw from kherson energoda and zaporizhzhia to the borders on february 24. well, i think that this is absolutely a mythology for today, as of now, there are no positions for negotiations. unfortunately, there are almost no, and is this visit connected, maybe it was planned earlier, maybe it is like this sudden spontaneous with the fact that in crimea from time to
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time someone somewhere is not neat or smokes or maybe smokes grass or some stubble well, in the end the russians already said the first time that it was not ukrainians and the second time they said that it was already ukrainian saboteurs could have i did not push because he connected this visit with the fact that the russians have something wrong with security equipment and something catches fire in their territory on our territory, in this case, i think that cardigan wants to play in his usual group, he started this game to do more, when he offered his mediation , suing the old ones, then the russians didn’t want to do that, then he tried, and it was a successful attempt to solve the issue, you won’t decide to partially
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solve it, there it's a matter of exporting grain from our ports and finally, now he's trying to take one more step to escalate the conflict, although there is some kind of freezing of this conflict, but to be honest, for now, you understand, in order for there to be negotiations, there must be a negotiating position, our negotiating position was clearly defined by more than one name, that is, imagine that now putin went out to his people and said that we are leaving kherson voluntarily, we are leaving zaporizhzhia voluntarily, we are leaving luhansk and donetsk voluntarily, but it is very difficult for me to imagine that, so in this case let's to see what proposals radian brought with him, what proposals will be made by the secretary general of the united nations. but while i was not optimistic , what can be done to increase
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military aid now, or are there signs that the western establishment begins let's say in a different way to assess the situation in ukraine as it is now well, look, i simply do not have the right to comment on the supply of weapons to ukraine eh, the only thing i can say is that i see that the world has identified itself in this matter and really eh, certain eh- are improved we can see the acceleration, but today there is a statement by scholz, who again started talking about the fact that we need to introduce us to some channel about the fact that we understand that putin may not hear us, but we need to conduct direct negotiations with putin. that is , again, this this is a rollback because putin understands only the language of forces, that is, he was aloof until the entire collective event told him that we should talk to you. we will not
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