it will be until the decrease of this particular line, that is, the first one is clear. i believe that it should be, but it should increase, but it does not happen here that an investor starts investing at low interest rates , that is, i remember three years ago when we did not have a war, by the way high inflation and even less than now, but then the rate of return on interest rate was at the level of 17-19% per annum, you understand in the conditions of war, that is, the risks are much greater today for investors and it is clear that interest rates should also be more between the current situation and we also need to return to the currency rates before taxation, which were at the beginning of the war, for example, in many sectors, industries , that is, we need to look at how to fill the budget today. see, this is not a popular measure on the one hand, but we need to understand if we want to preserve the macro-financial stability of our state if we want to maintain a relatively stable exchange rate of the ukrainian hryvnia there, then we need to use these unpopular measures of other options

, simply, well, unfortunately, yes, it is possible in in the short term, i don’t know 100 billion hryvnias to move there, but in the medium term it will be difficult in the financial markets. we were there for 14-15 years, we need it. no, we don’t need it. today, we are much simpler and more professional. today, we have 14-15 years of experience. we need these mistakes should be taken into account in our work , we will now add information, gentlemen, and continue to talk. of course, everything is in the context of the currency exchange rate and the hryvnia exchange rate. the mission of the hryvnia can be from 30 to 60 billion per month. the deputy head of the president's office, rostislav shurma, in an interview with force, according to him, this is a range that will not create problems, but this is provided that export-import operations are balanced , the issue is resolved with the payment of the national debt, and the support of international partners will be preserved. as well as a

ten-percent tax on the purchase of currency, we will now create about uh currency and hryvnias and about ovdp i still want to question you uh p vasyl you say we need to raise rates they of course lower than the current level of inflation, but if you say that the state should do it, the question arises. why don’t we raise it, there is no resource, another understanding of financial policy, please explain how much you then increased this percentage. when he was recently asked something similar, that is, the ministry of finance has enough professional specialists today who can determine the level of yield on our domestic state loan bonds . to be honest, they are even more attractive. well, if there is more research , a little more than, for example, deposits, because there

is no taxation at all, that is, there is no personal income tax and no military service is paid, in total it is almost 20%. that is, well, so that the audience understood less, so let the ministry of finance decide for itself, but what when we read, again, a record low level of attracting funds in this direction, it means that we need to draw appropriate conclusions. we hear different statements from different sources about the issuance of hryvnias, what the national bank can print there, well, it is called the corresponding amounts, but there are more quirks here, after all, the position of the social bank of ukraine is not officially official, and they stated that every month to by the end of the year, we can print about 30 billion uah and this will not significantly affect the appeal and devaluation economic and other processes in our country, but i am a supporter of this position simply and we need to support this position in this direction , that is, this position and what is in them

expenditures well, the main sources are external expenditures . that is, we need to do hard work. by the way , once again, the national bank was one of the first to make statements there. we know that today there is already a discussion about the new financing program of our state by the international monetary fund. there is great hope that this this year will start a new program of funding for the amf of our country, it will provide significant financial resources, on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is also a positive signal for other countries that our state, our state can to accredit in the conditions of war, thank you for the conversation mr. vasyl vasyl furman, doctor of economic sciences, joins our broadcast and we will continue with ivan usom, he remains in touch a-a p ivan e, do you remember about 3-4 weeks ago we forecasted the dollar exchange rate and in particular, it is 40 hryvnias, and now we can see the exchange rate in exchange offices. by the way, it is still

forbidden to take it out, but in view of what mr. vasyl said, would you now advise buying dollars or ovdp? decides himself but i which three weeks ago your ether i said that i do not expect that there will be any very strong depreciation of the hryvnia. therefore, i still recommend trading with dollars, although, again, there can be a lot of problems. the only thing i wanted to add to the previous information when i said about a billion a month is this it was about the month and 12 - it was for a year, that is, at the end of the year, the figure can really be even more than what mr. vasyl said. that is, somewhere around 7-8 billion uah. it is clear something like that. yes, the only thing is also about iron ore. i wanted to add that there is really a problem that exports for the first half of this year

of iron ore and this is one of our leading products in general, ukraine is one of the five world exporters of iron ore. so, it has decreased if the physical volume is 30%, if the value is 44%. that is, there is a problem here, but our main mining and beneficiation plants are poltava and ingulets, which are under our control. that is, it is not something that is taken over by the russians, that is, there are certain opportunities for export, the only thing is that so far the agreement concerns grain. unfortunately, we we will not be able to export by sea yet, i emphasize iron ore as a rule, we exported it to china, by the way, in vain, so it is desirable to connect china here in order to expand this yes, but again

, this is a matter for politics more, nevertheless to even exist relatively independently, that is, they returned to my question, the topic of families is of interest to me too . well, in principle, 12% per annum is a small rate and i want to understand if we we are talking about uh such a bad situation for ukraine that the ministry of finance has placed military stocks for a reasonable amount, we need to understand why the placement is at a record low amount and why the demand is falling, is it because of the same 12% annual rate or because those who buy them do not believe that even 12% per annum they receive explain these processes, how it happens, of course, the element of trust is very important, because i remind you that the war has been going on for almost six months, and that's why i really understand all the people who say well, how can we invest in securities of ukraine when

it is not known what will happen in a month or two, but something tells me that in a month or two, nothing will change negatively. perhaps something positive will change, but we will hope , nevertheless. faith in the fact that the state will cope and the state will exist and the state will pay these interest, i.e. those fears that are absolutely logical due to the state in which the country is. still, how should i understand that the worst hope is actually this. so it is possible mr. ivan is an expert in international economics, let's take a risk. before we continue the conversation, let's understand the current state of the world economy. how much does russian aggression against ukraine affect the world

economy ? it has a very strong influence. and i will explain why. even if we take elementary numbers, if in october 2021 the world trade organization said that world trade would grow by 4.7% on the 22nd, physical options they analyzed were not valuable, then in april in the forecast, this figure has been reduced to three percent , that is, 3% growth means that in fact, primarily due to the war that is taking place in ukraine, as well as the fact that the problem of the coronavirus has not yet been completely overcome because we have begun to forget about it, but in we still have a-a forecasts analytics in terms of prospects is getting worse because there are fears that there will be a deepening of the crisis, but still, 3% growth is not a reduction, it is not there. 2020 is the

year when the pandemic began. grain of the agreement, the increase in world prices for grains, first of all wheat, as in april , prices were twice as high as in january, that is, in 4 months, the price of wheat of soft varieties, with which the clip is actually made, once grew twice as much, now it has decreased a little, but here and the economy began to work and the country began to find opportunities to improve the situation with consumption, to reduce it a little, nevertheless, now it seems to me that the next forecast will be in october, i do not expect that it will worsen by 40%, moreover, maybe even somewhere there will be a slight improvement in the forecast, that is, i expect somewhere maybe 3.5 or so, if i asked you about it because, well, we understand that

russia wants to play the long game and expects that the european world will get tired of helping ukraine, well, but well , we also have to understand that this fatigue can be influenced by russia, well, in particular, it is economic factors, economic data. thank you, mr. ivan, for joining our broadcast. marathon single news we will overcome it we will overcome it we will win the news together we are strong we do not know the name of that kharkiv student who first greeted with the slogan glory to ukraine but the time has come and millions respond to the heroes glory is from small steps great things begin the next step - your state is us naval glory

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you are not news together we are strong we continue our the conversation and we are again talking about the purchasing power of the hryvnia, it will be halved, said kyrylo shevchenko, the head of state, even the current 22% consumer inflation for the year is a significant reduction in the real incomes of citizens, and according to the scenario of the national bank, inflation will exceed 30% by the end of this year. next year will decrease to 20% and only in the 24th year will it decrease to a single-digit level, that is, in these three years, the purchasing power of the hryvnia will decrease by almost half, concluded the head of the nbu when we speak, mr. ivan usyk, an expert on of the international economy, mr. ivan, is on the phone now, when we talk about the fact that the purchasing power of the hryvnia will decrease so that there are no big eyes of the citizens of ukraine, let's add to our broadcast, in particular, ilikbez, what are we talking about only the rise in prices or what other things? well, here

a complex question, but first of all, indeed, the rise in prices, but still, it will not be a dramatic rise in prices, because you know, if prices rise by a few percent, yes, it is unpleasant, but it will not have a fatal effect on the economy, and i do not i expect, by the way, that there will be some kind of significant growth, that is, we really understand that the economy has faced problems, that is why certain goods are disappearing. therefore, the prices of those that are left over are increasing because there are fewer of them. that is, 23% is not fatal, i don't think so. by the way, because well you know, there are even such appropriate terminology that hyperinflation is 50 or more years ago 20-30 well, it is really unpleasant, but to say that this is the end of our economy and i am not so ready plus, after all, there will be support and i understand

that in those conditions, again, in that we exist it's very difficult to predict something because it's too unpredictable. as they say for us, this neighbor is up there eh. but nevertheless, eh, i still expect that our partners will not let ukraine eh fall into a significant economic period. well, what help there will be more, we see plans to support ukraine as a map, map perspectives and hints that they will be implemented, and a more long-term perspective is the so-called rebuild ukraine plan, which was presented by the european union on may 18, i.e. for one part of the economy of ukraine this is a very important signal to our partners that ukraine will not be left alone . the introduction of an additional levy on the purchase of

foreign currency by importers and this is where the importers tell us that it will be in some kind of business. to a certain extent, they are contradictory, they will have a negative impact on business, because this is an increase in the cost of domestic products, this is also an increase in consumer prices, this will have to fire someone in order to somehow stay afloat. can be a plus, does not understand that now when our financial and economic block of the government sees the statistics for the first half of the year and when they see that the negative balance of the budget is 2.6 billion dollars i would like to remind you that in the first half of the 21st year there was a negative site for 1:1 billion, that is, the negative site grew more than twice, therefore, of course, we see

these attempts to limit imports, that is, these restrictions are introduced on the purchase of foreign currency for importers, but as for me, i would not i would advise that it is hard to put pressure on partners, because it is really an important component of the economy. because ukraine carries something, we also buy it abroad and to preserve the more or less normal functioning of the entire state as a single economic mechanism. it is desirable not to take such drastic steps, unfortunately, unfortunately, they are doing it, but in my opinion, this is more of an economic reaction than a calculated one . we will continue the conversation with mr. ivan. during the last months, the costs incurred by the average small business as a result of the war have increased significantly, as

evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by the european business association, and 20% businessmen lost more than 100 thousand dollars due to the aggression of the kremlin, and more than half of the businesses suffered losses in the amount of 10 to 50,000. at the moment, about a third of the businessmen have resumed their work in full. at the same time, despite all the difficulties, the businessmen continue to support the armed forces of ukraine and the displaced persons, the cabinet of ministers singled out another 103 million uah for grants to support business, assistance as part of the program, there is work, as stated by prime minister denys shmyhal, 74 million will be directed to the creation of 324 micro-businesses, another 29 million will go to the launch of 9 new projects in the field of berry growing, horticulture and viticulture, let us note the number of submitted applications under the program, there are jobs, has already reached eight thousand experts from the international economy

. help for business when uh, hmm, let's say the priorities are clear in the state of war, money is distributed to the army first, then social security, then preparation for the winter, ah, how to survive in business then waiting for the end of the war, are there still any opportunities to be afloat, mr. ivan , what do you think is the reason to wait for the end of the war, it is very difficult because no one knows when it will end, and it is better to adapt to the conditions in which countries we are and we we see that certain businesses are adapting, moreover, already on your broadcast, he once said that there is information that at least in western ukraine, the same coffee shops that are representatives of small businesses have already renewed the level of their profits, which was before february 24, that is, certain

businesses they are still returning to their normal existence and this is a very positive signal that certain economic processes are also taking place in kyiv. you are demonstrating the fact that this apartment renovation activity is being carried out quite actively again, i.e. but after all, it is a business to look for certain niches where there is demand and the demand is quite significant, i.e. maybe this is how i understand that it is not easy to reformat its activity, nevertheless, under these conditions, it is desirable to find a theosphere that really gives an effect, and we see that there are such areas, yes, mr. ivan, when we talked about the possibility of rylicizing the enterprise and the state supports this enterprise, in fact, we started

talking about a new model of the economy in our country for a long time in ukraine and still the economy is tied to this model of attachment to large enterprises . will be able to adapt quickly well, i am talking about the so -called modular economy, but here you are an economic expert, maybe it is, i am theorizing and it is possible among dore now, and maybe explain how it works and whether it is realistic to do it in ukraine . in the country it is still necessary to be more and business more mobile, because this orientation towards enterprises that form cities, in my opinion, it should already go down in history because, you know

, there is more, i will say more about the situation in russia federations, when there are certain cities that were formed around one enterprise, they are now faced with the problems that in the event of the closure of this enterprise, the entire city may cease its economic life, therefore the situation is the same in ukraine. when it is desirable to understand that it is still necessary to reformat and it will be for the future, in order to be more specific from the bottom, how is the enterprise actually going now, are the entrepreneurs finding some ways or in what way can it really be prescribed at the level of the state program and say everything is now being built with such a column. they have prescribed industrial parks, we have a draft law, and isn’t this a repetition of the stories with russian cities that you talked about when entire cities are growing around businesses, of course, in my opinion, it is desirable that, after all, it was not state

intervention. it was the work itself as entrepreneurs and the state, let's say, created the appropriate conditions but did not say what to do because it is important that we move away from the old administrative model of managing the economy when the state says do everything entrepreneurs should do this themselves, and the state should, firstly, not interfere, and secondly, even create some conditions to help them do it, because in my opinion, after this war, ukraine will definitely turn out to be different and business will be more adaptive in my opinion in those conditions and this problem, by the way, which we will face after the structure of the population of ukraine changes, because a significant part of the people who moved, they do not want to return, not to ukraine, but let's say for example to the east, that is, people who live in the west of ukraine not all of them will return, because protect

the nitrogen companies, so we take the city of severodonetsk, a lot of people left, now there are only 7-8 thousand of them according to official data. return the people there, it is clear that they are waiting for the city to be freed, there were no collaborators who hired 300 people at this plant, it is not clear what they can do there in the conditions when the plant was stopped on march 1 in the meantime, here is exactly this example. in other words, we need to create in what way, then what businesses to directly accommodate those people who have already gone to the east, will return, as you say, to build a modular economy, but at the same time, this initiative came from the grassroots, that is, of course, here is the question and here, of course, i wanted to say that, first of all , it is necessary to organize courses for the re-profiling

of workers, because in order to make it clear that this model is what you are used to, you survived in this place and there was only one enterprise and you did not think about an alternative option, this is already history, that is, you should think about it yourself and what do you even want to do, because you know, you mentioned severodonetsk, it reminds me that in the 14th year there was a rally in donetsk, if i am not mistaken, there was such a terrible phrase there what do we need to think about what to do, this really scared me, because in general, we need to think all the time, and when people say that we need to think that way and it will happen, yes, you should also analyze the situation and look for the area in which it is possible in your the odds will be better because these large enterprises are history. but maybe some hmm more small enterprises. they may not sound so beautiful, but they will provide income, unlike the old ones that are slowly disappearing like march furnaces and they

are sorry because there are already other technologies for metal production. yes, these large enterprises will also be history and the population - you understand that, but now we are talking about internal migrants, about ukrainians who remained on the territory of ukraine, and how to return those who went abroad or are opportunities so when we talk about business opportunities, about reorientation, relocation, or business recovery, and what opportunities do we have here for people to return and work here, well, first of all, you know, i don’t think that all those who left ukraine they really want to stay abroad because even at the beginning of the war there was a very interesting phrase that the difference between emigration from ukraine and other migrations from other parts of the world is that

people from other regions came to europe to stay in people came to europe from ukraine in order to return after a certain time, and then a significant proportion of people who were helped by our european partners and we thank them for that live at the expense of this help, but this help will not be eternal and when it will not be provided to them in fact, our citizens themselves will be interested in returning to ukraine because, after all, it is always easier to find a job in their native land and , let's say, to get a job, but i have to do it in european countries when you do not know her nadia language of this country, that is, we have enough people who know the english language, but we still went to britain a little, although we also went there, and first of all , poland, germany, that is, since people do not know how to speak , it will definitely be easier for them to return, this will be the main motivating factor to return, and we are even now we see that the queues to ukraine are much

more than the queues from ukraine because people understand that the fears they had, fortunately, have been fully resolved, that is, more or less, life continues in ukraine and it is desirable after all realize yourself here than in other countries yes, i thought about your phrase now we will more or less finish life goes on in ukraine it is clear that during the war period for some it is a time of opportunities and a time of change and a person begins to act more actively and someone is completely confused in that situation we were talking now, and this block started with a conversation about the budget, and in fact, for civil servants, it has been reduced so much, for example, the costs of obtaining them will most likely be further reduced, again, what area do you now see as more stable in order to go there to acquire new qualification, you said what about employment centers in particular. these courses are available. and now, if you

search. in principle, you can find some volunteer projects where they give you this help in acquiring new knowledge, but it is clear that mastering new knowledge will have to be like a war - this is completely new and unacceptable, and absolutely unrealistic for us such realities that the war entails, please explain what the traditions in this world say about, in particular in ukraine, look after the end of the war, first of all, there will be the implementation of the project on the correspondence of ukraine, that is, the sphere construction, it will be very active from the point of view of attracting funds, that is, the funds will be in this area , because processes will really take place there, therefore, first of all, we need to think about this area, then the it area, which , let's say, has always been quite popular. nevertheless , ukraine demonstrated to the world